EUR/USD remains below MA (200) H1

Today, the hourly chart of EUR/USD shows a recovery after the previous decline. The price still remains below the MA (200) H1 moving average (1.1370), which indicates a continuing medium-term downward trend. Earlier, the price peaked at 1.1440, from where the decline began. The current growth can be considered as corrective, especially considering that it coincides with the moving average test. The MACD indicator shows the initial phase of the bullish momentum: the histogram has started to grow and is approaching zero, which may indicate a short-term increase in demand. Nevertheless, there is no confident signal for a trend change yet. If buyers fail to break through the 1.1370 level and gain a foothold above the moving average, there is a high probability of a pullback to the 1.12651 support. In case of a confident upward breakout, the next target will be the 1.1440 level. The overall picture so far points more towards a consolidation phase with a bearish bias.

Resistance levels are: 1.1370, 1.1440, 1.1575

Support levels are: 1.1265, 1.1145, 1.1095

The main scenario for the pair's advance implies a breakout of MA (200) H1 (1.1370) and there may be an increase to 1.1430-40 (April 23 and 28 highs) 

An alternative scenario assumes a breakout of 1.1265 (April 15 and May 1 low) and there may be a decline to 1.1145 (April 3 high)