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09.10.2025
Gold prices rose 3.8% to $4,033 per troy ounce
this week, though such gains have almost become routine as the metal continues
setting fresh all-time highs nearly every other day over the past six weeks.
The latest record was reached on Wednesday at $4,059 per ounce. The rally
accelerated sharply from October 1, following the start of the U.S. government
shutdown and the release of weak ADP Nonfarm Payrolls data for September. Gold
broke above resistance at $3,780, jumping 2.0% to $3,835 in a single session,
which confirmed a move toward the next target at $3,860–$3,880 per ounce.
07.10.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.65% to
98.38 points this week, while the EURUSD declined by 0.55% to 1.16740. This
Dollar rally amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown appears
counterintuitive, as such periods typically weaken the Greenback. Indeed,
following the shutdown on Wednesday last week, the EURUSD initially climbed
0.68% to 1.17780, approaching resistance at 1.17600–1.17800, a breakout above
which would have confirmed a renewed rally toward the 1.19500–1.20500 zone.
02.10.2025
Brent crude prices declined by 4.7% to $65.95
per barrel, returning to the support zone of $65.00–$67.00 and erasing last
week’s attempt to break higher. The brief rally had been fuelled by speculation
over potential new sanctions on Russia’s oil sector, with the U.S. and EU
exchanging proposals. Europeans sought tougher restrictions, while Washington
conditioned its support on a full European phase-out of Russian energy imports
alongside higher tariffs on China and India to curb their purchases of Russian
oil. Fundamentals temporarily reinforced the move after U.S.
30.09.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 0.44%
to 97.71 points this week, while the EURUSD rose by 0.48% to 1.17560. Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell briefly pressured the Euro last Tuesday. Although
his tone was slightly more dovish than in his post-meeting comments on
September 17, he still admitted that earlier Fed forecasts had overestimated
the inflationary effects of U.S. president Donald Trump’s tariffs. The
following day, the EURUSD dropped by 0.59% to 1.17370, and after
stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP data revised upward to 3.8% QoQ from 3.3%, the
pair fell another 0.
25.09.2025
Gold surged 2.0% this week to $3,759 per troy
ounce, setting another all-time high at $3,791. The breakout confirms the start
of an extreme rally toward the $3,850–$3,950 target zone.
The rally was already in motion before the
Federal Reserve’s September meeting, as bullion cleared the critical
$3,610–$3,630 resistance. A textbook retest followed when Fed Chair Jerome
Powell struck a hawkish tone, briefly pushing prices down to $3,627. The dip
proved short-lived, with investors dismissing Powell’s stance as political
posturing rather than an economic necessity.
23.09.2025
The Dollar Index (DXY) slipped 0.28% this week
to 97.36, while the EURUSD advanced 0.51% to 1.18010. The pair accelerated
toward its extreme target of 1.19500–1.20500, closing last Tuesday at 1.18600
and surging to 1.19180 the next day following a 25 bps Fed rate cut.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell quickly
turned the tide with a sharply hawkish tone. He stressed inflation risks,
expressed concern about the labour market, and emphasised the Fed’s independence
from the White House, which overshadowed the updated dot plot chart showing two
more cuts in 2025.
18.09.2025
Brent crude prices gained 1.4% to $68.02 per barrel this week,
though the move remains confined to the $66.00–$68.00 support zone, suggesting
little more than volatility within an extended sideways range.
Investor positioning reflects the lack of
conviction. Large investors sold $700,000 worth of shares in the United States
Oil Fund (USO) last week, only to buy back $6.6 million this week, underscoring
uncertainty about the next directional move.
Monetary developments have had limited
influence.
16.09.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined by 0.31%
to 97.14 points, while the EURUSD advanced 0.50% to 1.17910. The recent upside
momentum suggests a long-awaited acceleration toward the extreme target zone of
1.19500–1.20500. Since August 6, the pair had been confined within a sideways
range of 1.16000–1.17000. The breakout above resistance, triggered by weak
Nonfarm Payrolls data, was followed by a week-long retest. With this week’s
move toward 1.18000, the breakout now appears confirmed, leaving the path
higher open.
11.09.2025
Gold prices climbed 1.1% to $3,627 per troy
ounce this week, setting a new all-time high at $3,674 — the fifth record in
the past eight trading sessions. This pace of gains is forcing investors to
weigh the possibility of further upside. A sustained hold above $3,600 could
extend the rally toward the extreme target of $3,850–$3,950.
On a three- to six-month horizon, however,
current levels appear overstretched. Bullion has not been this extremely
overbought since 1975. Yet in the near term, momentum remains strong and the
news backdrop continues to support higher prices.
09.09.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.39% to
97.38 this week, while the EURUSD advanced 0.31% to 1.17590. Gains in the Euro were tempered by political
instability in France, where the government was dismissed, marking the fourth
resignation in two years. Market reaction was relatively
muted, although 10-year French government bond yields edged higher to 3.48%
from 3.40%. Investors, however, remain more focused on U.S. macroeconomic
signals than European political risk.
The spotlight is on the U.S. labour market.
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