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Brent crude prices dropped by 1.7% to $86.00 per barrel this week, which is above the dip at $84.45 on July 10. Brent prices jumped to two-month highs at $88.52 on July 5. However, June unemployment in the United States unexpectedly rose to 4.1%, putting pressure on oil prices. Consequently, Brent prices retreated by 0.7% to $87.06 on the same day. The pressure continued this week amid fears of severe oil infrastructure damage in the Gulf of Mexico. However, the actual damage caused by Hurricane Beryl was much less than feared, meaning that U.S.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rising by 0.1% to 105.05 points, while the EURUSD is down by 0.1% to 1.08210. This mirrors the market situation from last Tuesday, although the Dollar is weaker by 1.0% now. Last week, the Greenback was recovering following the first round results of the French parliamentary election. The American currency lost another 0.7% to 1.08160 on weak Nonfarm Payrolls by ADP and a U.S. Services PMI that fell to 49.6 points, indicating a contraction of the sector.
Gold prices are rising by 1.4% to $2360 per troy ounce. The yellow metal jumped by 1.5% to $2364 per ounce on Wednesday, marking a two-week high. The Head and Shoulders pattern failed to materialize after an unsuccessful attempt to break the "neck" line of the pattern, and gold prices bounced from $2300 per ounce. Declining inflation in the U.S. also supported gold prices and pushed the Dollar down. Key economic indicators contributed to this movement. The ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2 points from 48.7 points.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is marginally up by 0.1% to 105.98, while the EURUSD is down by 0.1% to 1.07230. Despite the apparent market tranquility, significant turbulence looms beneath the surface. The May PCE Index in the United States, indicating a continuous slowdown, was largely ignored by investors. Instead, the market's focus has shifted to political developments. Last Friday, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields surged to 4.40%, a move driven by chaos within the Democratic party.
Brent crude oil is experiencing a marginal growth of 0.5%, bringing prices to $85.50 per barrel. This modest increase comes as prices continue to move sideways within a narrow range, fluctuating 1.7% in either direction since June 19. Such dynamics suggest that oil prices are poised for a significant movement. Investor sentiment is divided, with some anticipating a continuation towards $90.00 per barrel, while others foresee a retreat to $80.00 per barrel. Over the past two months, prices have been constrained between these levels, reflecting a tug of war in the market.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is experiencing a slight decline of 0.3% to 105.46 points, while the EURUSD pair has risen by 0.4% to 1.07340. This movement appears to be more of a standard technical retreat rather than a response to the current macroeconomic conditions. The strong June PMI readings from the United States should have bolstered the Greenback, but this hasn't occurred. Instead, the EURUSD pair has reversed its earlier decline. The Eurozone reported unexpectedly weaker PMI figures, initially pushing the EURUSD down to the 1.06700-1.06900 range. However, the stronger U.S.
Gold prices rose by 0.5% to $2344 per troy ounce this week, lifting off from the support at $2300-2320 in an effort to reach the resistance at $2400. Prices have tried twice to break through this resistance in the past three months, first in April and then in May, but both attempts were unsuccessful. On May 20, gold prices established a new all-time high at $2450 per ounce before quickly retracing to $2290. This movement appears to be forming a correctional “head and shoulders” pattern, with the left shoulder in April and the head in May.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady at 105.55 this week. The EURUSD is rising by 0.1% to 1.07180, with the American currency consolidating after a strong performance last week, during which it added 0.8%. The critical development is that EURUSD declined below the support at 1.08000, which had been holding the pair from downside moves for more than a month. Shortly after this barrier was breached, the pair slipped to 1.06670, marking the lowest level since May 1. The breakthrough of this major support was significant. The price gap at 1.
Brent crude prices have increased by 3.7% to $82.50 per barrel, after slightly retreating from $83.48 per barrel on June 12. This recent price fluctuation followed a disappointing Federal Reserve (Fed) dot plot forward guidance, which now includes only one expected interest rate cut this year instead of the three cuts forecasted in March. The U.S. May consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly decreased to 3.3% YoY from 3.4% in April, and to 0.0% MoM against an expected 0.1% MoM. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also fell to 3.4% YoY from 3.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen by 0.3% to 105.20 points this week, while the EURUSD has slipped by 0.4% to 1.07590, although it was lower at 1.07330 on Monday. The Greenback's strength has been evident since last Friday following a mixed U.S. labor market report for May. Nonfarm Payrolls increased to 272,000, surpassing the expected 182,000, while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.0% from the expected 3.9%. Additionally, hourly earnings accelerated to 0.4% MoM, above the expected 0.3%. These developments led to an immediate 0.8% strengthening of the Dollar.
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