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Oil prices are facing downward pressure this week, with Brent crude dropping by 0.4% to $90.28 per barrel. On Wednesday, prices dipped even further to $89.00 per barrel amidst significant geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning potential missile strikes from Iran on Israeli military and government facilities. Despite these concerns, investors are skeptical about the likelihood of such an escalation and are withdrawing capital from crude assets. Last week, $103.8 million was pulled out of the United States Oil Fund (USO), followed by another $49.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) experienced a slight decline of 0.1% to 103.95 points this week, prompting the EURUSD to retreat by 0.3% to 1.08700. The market is bracing for the release of U.S. inflation data on April 10. Last week, the EURUSD flirted with the possibility of dipping below 1.07000 but found support around 1.07250 before rallying to 1.08760 ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls data release. Now, if the pair manages to surpass 1.08700, it could potentially continue its ascent towards 1.10000. However, it's likely to hover around 1.
Gold prices surged by 2.7% to reach $2293 per troy ounce this week, marking a new all-time high at $2305, where a formidable resistance level resides, suggesting a challenging breakthrough. The precious metal has exhibited remarkable performance, with a 12.5% increase since the onset of March. This rapid ascent echoes the trajectory seen during the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 when gold prices soared by 15.0% to $2070 within six weeks.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) surged by 0.5% to reach 104.84 this week, marking its highest reading since February 14. In contrast, the EURUSD experienced a decline of 0.5%, falling to 1.07240. This unexpected rise in the Dollar followed a report of slowing inflation published the previous Friday. Despite expectations of a weaker Dollar, the WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU) reported net capital outflows of $3.9 million after maintaining a near-zero balance for two consecutive weeks. This indicates that bets on a weaker Dollar have begun to emerge. However, U.S.
Brent crude prices have seen a modest 0.7% increase, reaching $86.35 per barrel. Despite attempts to test the resistance zone at $87.00-92.00 per barrel earlier in the week, similar to mid-March, they fell short. This pattern suggests a potential period of heightened volatility ahead, signaling caution for oil markets. This anticipated period of volatility could persist until mid-May, potentially leading to a precarious downside scenario with prices possibly plunging to $50 per barrel.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) saw a decline of 0.3% this week, settling at 104.12 points. Conversely, the EURUSD pair experienced a 0.4% rise, reaching 1.08500. The notable volatility originated from China, where the Chinese offshore Yuan (CNH) unexpectedly plummeted last Friday. As a result, the USDCNH surged by 0.8% to 7.2800, marking its highest level since November 2023. This sudden movement caught investors off guard, especially considering the USDCNH had been trading within a narrow range of 7.1800-7.2200, closely monitored by China's central bank.
Gold prices surged by 2.4% to reach $2205 per troy ounce, reaching a new all-time high of $2222. This upward momentum followed a consolidation period around $2150 for ten days. Investors closely monitored the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, interest rate projections, and economic forecasts. With higher inflation in the United States and a mild cooling of the labor market in January and February, expectations aligned with the December interest rate outlook, which projected three interest rate cuts in 2024.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has gained 0.5% to 103.93 points this week, signaling continued strength amid expectations of extended monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is set to meet this Wednesday. The EURUSD pair declined by 0.4% to 1.08450 as the Greenback strengthened. This movement comes in response to the recent inflation data for February in the United States, which showed an unexpected increase to 3.2% YoY, up from 3.1% YoY in January. Additionally, the producer price index surged to 1.
Brent crude prices have seen a 3.2% increase this week, reaching $85.05 per barrel, which is very close to the 4-month high of $85.09. This level has acted as a robust resistance for the past two weeks. Maintaining prices above the $81.00-83.00 resistance since March 13 has paved the way for a target range of $87.00-92.00 per barrel. This upward trend has now become the primary scenario. However, before reaching this target, prices must surpass the significant obstacle at $85.09. Investor sentiment appears optimistic regarding this upward trajectory, as evidenced by the $51.
The Greenback is trading neutrally this week, with the U.S. Dollar index (DXY) adding 0.1% to reach 102.83 points. The EURUSD has risen at the same pace to 1.09320, indicating good market synchronization. Last Friday, the Dollar experienced a 1.3% loss as the EURUSD peaked at 1.09810, the highest level since January 12. Despite a subsequent retreat, no reversal formations have been detected, suggesting a potential further decline of the Dollar. The primary reason for the Dollar's weakening is the cooling labor market in the United States.
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