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10.10.2024
Brent crude oil is down 1.0% this week,
trading at $77.70 per barrel, retreating from its two-month high of $81.57 per
barrel on Monday. Despite the pullback, oil prices remain elevated due to two
key drivers: macroeconomic factors and geopolitics.
Geopolitics has become the primary catalyst
for the recent oil price rally. While strong macroeconomic data—such as JOLTs
job openings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and a positive non-manufacturing PMI—have had a
moderate impact, the most significant market reaction came from U.S. labor data
released last Friday. In September, the U.S.
08.10.2024
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is down 0.15% to
102.39 points, while the EURUSD has risen 0.25% to 1.09900 this week. Though
this dip in the Dollar may appear minor after last week’s 1.75% surge, it
suggests a potential shift in market sentiment, at least in the short term.
The Greenback had been bolstered by Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on 30th September, where he signaled
support for continued monetary tightening and highlighted the strength of the
U.S. economy.
03.10.2024
Gold prices are down by 0.5% to $2,645 per
troy ounce, retreating from the all-time high of $2,685. However, the upward
trend may not be over yet, as gold broke through the resistance at $2,490–2,510
per ounce in September, clearing the way for a primary target of $2,700–2,800
and potentially extreme targets of $3,200–3,300 per ounce. This rally could
extend until the end of November, driven largely by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed)
unexpected half-point interest rate cut in September.
The last time the Fed made such a bold move
was in August 2007, which triggered a 59.
01.10.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen by 0.5%
this week to 100.97 points, while the EURUSD has declined at a similar pace,
dropping below 1.11000. It appears the Greenback is beginning to recover
following Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish remarks during
his speech on Monday.
Christine Lagarde, President of the European
Central Bank (ECB), expressed confidence in achieving the inflation target of
2.0% soon, signalling a likely interest rate cut by the ECB in mid-October.
26.09.2024
Brent crude prices are down by 3.8% this week
to $71.90 per barrel, dipping as low as $70.89 earlier on Thursday, marking the
lowest level since September 12 and nearing the September 10 lows when concerns
over a U.S. recession were high.
This time, negative sentiment is even
stronger, with declining PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Indexes) for both
manufacturing and services in the Eurozone, U.S., and the U.K. Japan is also
experiencing falling manufacturing activity, while its services sector
stagnates. Despite this, the oil supply outlook appears more optimistic as U.S.
24.09.2024
The U.S. Dollar has shown unusual stability
since the start of the week. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up slightly by
0.05% to 100.77 points. However, the picture varies significantly when
comparing the Greenback against different reserve currencies. The Dollar
strengthened by 0.2% against the Euro, while retreating by 0.4% against the
British Pound. The Japanese Yen has fallen by 0.5% to the Dollar, while
commodity-driven currencies such as the Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand
Dollars have risen by 0.5-0.6% against the Greenback.
17.09.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a slight
decline of 0.30% to 100.61 points this week, while the EUR/USD pair climbed by 0.60%
to 1.11400, nearing its recent high. Investors are keenly watching the Federal
Reserve’s upcoming decision, speculating a possible half-point rate cut. This
aggressive rate cut appears overestimated given the current mixed economic
indicators, especially with core inflation showing some persistence.
The idea of a half-point cut is seen by some,
like former New York Fed President William Dudley, as necessary due to
potential labor market deterioration.
12.09.2024
Gold prices are climbing by 0.7% this week to
$2,518 per troy ounce, nearing the all-time high of $2,531 set on August 20.
The current price range of $2,490–2,510 per ounce is a critical resistance
zone, but increased buying activity, reflected by inflows into the SPDR Gold
Trust (GLD), suggests that further upside is possible. GLD has seen net inflows
of $138.6 million this week, extending a streak of 10 consecutive positive
weeks and adding to the $2.8 billion total inflows during this period.
10.09.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has risen by 0.40%
to 101.60, with the EURUSD slipping by 0.4% to 1.10370. This pattern resembles
the situation from last week, when a slew of U.S. macroeconomic data, including
Manufacturing PMI, JOLTs, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, and Services PMI, triggered
similar market moves. The release of those reports contributed to a brief rise
in the EURUSD to 1.11100, but a disappointing U.S. labor market report for
August reversed that trend, sending the Dollar down by 1.0%.
05.09.2024
Brent crude prices have dropped 4.9% to $73.77
per barrel this week, though they briefly dipped to $72.90 on Wednesday,
marking the lowest level since December 13, 2023, and approaching the key
support range of $70.00-$72.00 per barrel. This area could offer a solid base
for recovery.
Investors are increasingly worried about a
potential recession in the U.S., and a disappointing August labour market
report drove Brent prices down to $75.70 per barrel.
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