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The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is moving flat this week, up by 0.1% to 104.52, while the EURUSD declined by 0.06% to 1.08670. Overall, the Dollar is trading in a narrow range following the U.S. April inflation report last week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slowdown to 3.4% YoY in April from 3.5%, as expected, and the monthly reading came out better than expected at 0.3%. Additionally, Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, dropped to 3.6% YoY from 3.8% in March. This marked the first decline in inflation in 2024, bolstering investor confidence.
Brent crude prices are neutral around $83 per barrel. Although prices dipped by 2.2% to $81.44 per barrel on May 15, they managed to recover due to slowing inflation in April and declining oil inventories in the United States. Consumer prices fell to 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in April compared to 3.5% in March. The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding volatile food and energy prices, decreased to 3.6% YoY from the previous 3.8%. This marks the first slowdown of prices in the U.S. this year and may lead to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as early as September.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) is down by 0.1% to 105.13 points this week, while the EURUSD has risen by 0.14% to 1.07870. The market is keenly awaiting the release of U.S. April inflation data on Wednesday. The EURUSD experienced minor volatility, dipping to the support level of 1.07000-1.07400 before May 8, then rebounding following unexpectedly weak U.S. initial jobless claims last week. Overall, the pair closed the week with a slight gain of 0.1%. The WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU) continues to see strong net capital inflows, with investors adding $79.
The U.S. Dollar index has seen a modest 0.2% rise to 105.30 this week, while the EURUSD has experienced a slight 0.1% decline to 1.07550. Other major reserve currencies have followed a similar trajectory, with the exception of the Japanese Yen, which has lost 1.1% to 154.60. Several factors have contributed to the recent fluctuations in the Dollar. Firstly, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened in the currency market twice, significantly impacting the USDJPY exchange rate. The first intervention occurred on April 29, when the USDJPY reached 160.16, prompting the BoJ to inject around $36.
Gold prices faced a decline of 1.2% to $2309 per troy ounce over the course of this week, with a sharper drop of 2.4% observed on May 1, bringing prices down to $2281 per ounce. However, prices rebounded following the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting held on Wednesday. Investors had been eagerly anticipating the Fed's decisions amidst the backdrop of accelerated inflation in February and March. It was widely expected that policymakers would adopt a hawkish stance in response. However, the Fed surprisingly opted for a dovish approach.
Brent crude prices increased by 1.2% to reach $88.35 per barrel this week, marking a rebound from the support level at $87.00 per barrel. The previous week saw prices diving by 4.6% to $86.30, but the Israeli strike on Iran’s airbase offset downward pressure from investors attempting to push prices lower. The United States Oil Fund (USO) witnessed significant fluctuations in net capital flows amidst heightened geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. Last week, the fund reported net capital inflows of $301.7 million, the largest single-week reading since October 2023.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has dipped by 0.2% to 105.68 points this week. Meanwhile, the EURUSD has climbed by 0.4% to 1.06950, marking its highest level since April 12. Other major commodity-driven currencies, including the Aussie, Kiwi, and Loonie, have also strengthened by 0.3% against the Greenback. Asian currencies such as the Yen and Yuan have largely remained neutral in relation to the Dollar. The currency market is undergoing a corrective phase following a recent 1.5% rally of the Greenback. However, this correction does not alter the overall short-term outlook for the market.
Gold prices experienced a 1.7% increase this week, reaching $2379 per troy ounce, following a sudden spike to $2431, followed by a subsequent drop to $2333 per ounce last Friday. Currently, prices appear to be consolidating. Investor sentiment was largely influenced by tensions in the Middle East, particularly as Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones towards Israel. Despite Israel's interception of the majority of these projectiles, concerns about the potential for a broader conflict persist among investors. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) reported net capital inflows of $39.
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has shown strength this week, rising by 0.3% to 106.30. Conversely, the EURUSD has experienced a decline of 0.2% to 1.06150, reaching its lowest level since November 2, 2023, when it was lower at 1.0620 early Tuesday. The currency market has been relatively stagnant for almost four months, with the EURUSD mostly trading within the 1.08000-1.09000 range. However, the trend has finally shifted in favor of the Greenback following higher-than-expected March inflation data in the United States. Consumer prices for March increased to 3.
Oil prices are facing downward pressure this week, with Brent crude dropping by 0.4% to $90.28 per barrel. On Wednesday, prices dipped even further to $89.00 per barrel amidst significant geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning potential missile strikes from Iran on Israeli military and government facilities. Despite these concerns, investors are skeptical about the likelihood of such an escalation and are withdrawing capital from crude assets. Last week, $103.8 million was pulled out of the United States Oil Fund (USO), followed by another $49.
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