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16.01.2025
Brent crude prices are climbing by 2.8% this week, reaching $82.08 per barrel. Notably, prices have broken through the $78.00-80.00 resistance level and retested it successfully, suggesting a potential move toward the next resistance at $88.00-90.00 per barrel—an additional 8.0% upside. This surge is driven by uncertainty surrounding new U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil sector, which significantly disrupt global oil logistics. Before these sanctions, Brent prices were consolidating between $76.00-78.00 with a downside bias.
14.01.2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dipped by 0.14% to 109.50 points this week, while the EURUSD edged up by 0.10% to 1.02550. Though the decline of the Greenback may appear minor, it is notable in the context of the current environment, where expectations of further Dollar strength have become highly pronounced. Speculation about the Dollar surpassing the Euro has been widespread, with the options market projecting GBPUSD to trade in the 1.11000-1.12000 range amid financial challenges facing the U.K. government.
09.01.2025
Gold prices rose by 1.0% this week to $2,664 per troy ounce, showing resilience despite rising U.S. Treasury yields, which typically weigh on the metal. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since April 2024, but gold continues to gain momentum, supported by a combination of fundamental and technical factors. One key driver is the resumption of gold purchases by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) after a six-month pause. The PBOC added 0.45% to its reserves, bringing them to 73.29 million troy ounces. Historically, such activity has had a bullish impact on gold prices.
26.12.2024
Brent crude prices declined by 0.45% this week to $73.55 per barrel, hovering near the key support zone of $69.00-71.00. The narrowing trading range signals strong momentum and heightened downside risks. Large investors are aligning with a bearish outlook, as the United States Oil Fund (USO) reported net outflows of $132.6 million last week and another $29.0 million this week, reflecting diminished confidence in sustained price recovery. The technical outlook remains negative, with persistent downside pressure. A breach of the $69.00-71.
24.12.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has gained 0.49% to reach 108.15, while the EURUSD has declined by 0.35% to 1.03960. This follows last week’s hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, where policymakers maintained a firm stance despite a widely expected 0.25% interest rate cut. The Fed revised its economic outlook, reducing its forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025 to two from the previously expected four in September. The EURUSD dropped 1.3% to 1.03430 after the Fed meeting, driven solely by the central bank's hawkish rhetoric.
19.12.2024
Gold prices are down 1.4% this week, trading at $2,615 per troy ounce, recovering from a steep 2.4% decline on Wednesday that brought prices to $2,582, their lowest level since November 18. The market is at a critical juncture, with the potential for further declines to $2,300-$2,500 or a renewed rally towards $3,100-$3,200. This delicate balance follows the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, which has put downward pressure on the yellow metal. The Fed implemented a quarter-point interest rate cut to 4.50% but maintained a strongly hawkish outlook.
17.12.2024
The U.S. Dollar index is trading neutrally around 107.00 points this week, with EURUSD down by 0.68% to 1.04800. The major currency pair failed to hold above the resistance at 1.05400-1.05600, despite several attempts at the start of the previous week. However, the Dollar resumed its climb following the release of higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data for November. Consumer prices rose to 2.7% YoY in November, up from 2.6%, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 3.3% YoY. The EURUSD closed last Wednesday within the resistance zone at 1.05400-1.
12.12.2024
Brent crude prices rose by 3.0% to $73.48 per barrel this week, recovering from a support zone at $69.00-71.00 per barrel. While this bounce offers a slight safety margin, it does not eliminate the risk of a sharp decline toward $60.00 per barrel. The technical outlook remains bearish, as the recovery attempts are becoming increasingly short-lived, signaling intensifying pressure on oil prices. A decisive move above $76.00 per barrel is necessary to improve the chances of an upside scenario and mitigate the risk of a drop to $59.00-61.00 per barrel.
10.12.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.19% this week, reaching 106.27 points, while the EURUSD pair is down 0.20% to 1.05370. The pair has repeatedly failed to break above the 1.05400-1.05600 resistance zone. However, its continued higher lows suggest an "ascending triangle" pattern, often indicative of a potential upside breakout. While this is worth noting, the situation remains inconclusive for now. The WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (USDU) showed neutral capital flows last week after $7.
05.12.2024
Gold prices have remained neutral at $2,644 per troy ounce this week, with the market appearing to pause ahead of an anticipated sharp move. The potential for a correction toward $2,300–$2,500 or a surge to $3,100–$3,200 per ounce is backed by compelling arguments on both sides. Last week, geopolitical developments influenced gold prices significantly. The nomination of billionaire hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Secretary of the Treasury by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump signaled potential tariff easing on China, calming investor fears.
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