28.11.2024
Brent crude oil is down 3.8% this week,
trading at $72.35 per barrel and hovering near key support at $69.00–71.00 per
barrel. This marks the fifth test of this level since mid-September and the
third since late October, with the frequency of these attempts increasing. Each
bounce from support has been weaker, signaling waning buyer interest and
growing vulnerability to a breakdown. Should prices breach this level, a deeper
decline toward $59.00–61.00 per barrel seems likely.
26.11.2024
The U.S. Dollar is
weakening this week, with the Dollar Index (DXY) losing 0.63% to 106.83 points,
while the EURUSD is rising by 0.9% to 1.05100. Last week, the EURUSD traded
sideways around 1.05000 before the release of Eurozone business activity data. Manufacturing PMI fell to 55.2 points, below the consensus of 46.0,
while Services PMI dropped into contraction territory at 49.2 points, down from
51.6 points.
This disappointing data sent the Euro down by
1.6% to 1.03310 against the Dollar. In contrast, U.S. business activity has
shown signs of improvement.
21.11.2024
Gold prices are up 4.0% this week, reaching
$2,667 per troy ounce, marking their strongest weekly gain since late March.
This rally has nearly erased the previous week’s record decline of 4.3%, a move
not seen in the past three years. The earlier drop in gold was largely driven
by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, following an
uptick in U.S. inflation data for October. Headline inflation rose to 2.6% YoY,
while producer prices increased to 2.4% YoY, prompting Powell to state that there
is no urgency to cut interest rates. This stance pushed U.S.
19.11.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.18% to 106.46
points, while EURUSD is rising, gaining 0.25% to 1.05560. The U.S. presidential
election victory of Donald Trump halted EURUSD’s ascent at 1.09380, leading to
a 1.0% decline last week to 1.07180. This downward trend extended with another
1.7% drop to 1.05270, driven by rising U.S. inflation and hawkish rhetoric from
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.
October’s headline inflation increased to 2.6%
YoY from 2.4%, while producer prices surged to 2.4% YoY from 1.9%.
14.11.2024
Brent crude oil prices have declined by 4.4%
to $70.92 per barrel this week, though they have since partially recovered to
$73.12. Prices have shown resilience since Wednesday, remaining within a broad
trading range of $70.00-80.00. Downward pressure continues as the U.S. attempts
to drive prices down from the $80.00 resistance level, while support comes from
OPEC+ measures. With Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential
election, this delicate balance may shift.
12.11.2024
The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) rose by 0.70% to
105.74 this week, while EURUSD fell by 0.86% to 1.06200, its lowest since April
22. The resounding victory of Republican Donald Trump was beyond expectations,
even for his supporters. He won 312 electoral votes against Vice President
Kamala Harris’s 226, marking a significant Democratic defeat, amplified by a
Republican win in the Senate with 53 seats compared to the Democrats' 47, and a
likely Republican victory in the House.
Some believe no previous U.S. President has
held such consolidated power post-election.
05.11.2024
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen 0.4% to
103.89 this week as the EURUSD rose 0.66% to 1.09050, showing potential for
further upside. This marks the Dollar’s first weekly decline after four
straight gains, pressured by disappointing October Nonfarm Payrolls data, which
came in at a low 12,000 versus the expected 106,000. Although weak ISM
manufacturing PMI of 46.5 and Middle Eastern tensions briefly lifted the Dollar
on Friday, disappointing macro data overall is weighing on it.
31.10.2024
Gold prices have risen by 1.1% to $2,778 per
troy ounce this week, hitting an all-time high of $2,789 on October 30, above
the key resistance at $2,750-2,770 per ounce. If the current momentum
continues, we could see another record high soon, with prices targeting $2,880,
approximately 4.0% higher than current levels.
This upward trend may seem surprising, but
large investors are already supporting this scenario. SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) saw
inflows of $99.3 million last week, following a significant $936.2 million
inflow the prior week. Gold prices have gained 13.
24.10.2024
Brent crude oil prices have risen by 4.0% to
$76.20 per barrel, recovering from last week's sharp 7.5% drop to $72.69, the
lowest in October. The recovery is driven mainly by geopolitical tensions, with
investors responding to Israel's ongoing military actions. Although Israel
backed away from plans to target Iran's nuclear and oil infrastructure, its
continued attacks on Hamas and Hezbollah keep the Middle East conflict a key
factor affecting oil prices.
22.10.2024
The U.S. Dollar index
(DXY) is rising by 0.38% to 103.89 points this week, while the EURUSD is
declining by an equivalent 0.38% to 1.08420. The Greenback
has now strengthened for four consecutive weeks, though this rise appears to be
losing momentum.
Last week, the Dollar gained strength
following the European Central Bank's (ECB) predictable decision to cut
interest rates by another quarter percentage point. However, ECB President
Christine Lagarde struck a more optimistic tone on inflation, stating it would
return to the 2.0% target by the end of 2025.
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