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Gold prices are dropping rapidly since the beginning of the week. They have made 2.5% down already to $1870 per troy ounce, crashing a strong support at $1910-1930 per ounce. Basic scenario for gold is to drop to $1800-1840 support zone. There is a huge volatility for the yellow metal prices that could mean an elevated turbulence for gold. Gold prices have started to drop right after the meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed) on September 20. It lost more than 3.0% since then after the monetary watchdog disclosed its hawkish intentions.
The U.S. Dollar is strengthening with the U.S. Dollar index (DXY) up by more than 0.5% to 105.72 this week. The DXY was even higher at 105.89 at some point, the highest since November 2022.  The rise of the Dollar resumed after policy meetings of major central banks last week. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has demonstrated the most hawkish intentions despite takin a pause in interest rates hike cycle. Fed members suggested another interest rates hike this year, which came as a much-unexpected surprise for investors.
Crude prices are going down since the beginning of the week. Brent crude lost almost 2.0% to $92.50 per barrel despite touching the $96.00, the highest since November 2022.  The oil market is witnessing a furious battle around the resistance at $92.00-94.00 per barrel. Stakes are high, as a breakthrough of this resistance would initiate an upside scenario with targets above $100 per barrel. This would be extremely unfavorable for the American economy and for other oil consuming countries too, as it will ramp up inflation.
The U.S. Dollar is weakening since the beginning of the week. The U.S. Dollar index lost 0.5% to 104.7 points. This is a rather expected move ahead of the central bankers meetings this week. But the situation may change very rapidly. The correction of the U.S. Dollar matured a few weeks ago, but the Greenback is struggling. Only three major currencies have demonstrated a significant upside correction against the Dollar. All of them also have a secret ingredient of the success. The Loonie was strongly supported by rising crude prices that added more than 10% since the beginning of September.
Gold prices are going down by 0.5% to $1907 per troy ounce this week. This may seem of no importance in ordinary situation, as the primary support at $1900-1920 per ounce is intact. But this is no ordinary situation as the support will move up to $1910-1930 per ounce. Hovering below $1910 level may mean for prices an elevated possibility to dive below $1850 per ounce from the technical point of view.  There are no fundamental insights for such dive, especially after August inflation report in the United States. CPI went up to 3.7% YoY from the 3.2% YoY in July, while U.S.
The U.S. Dollar is weakening this week with the U.S. Dollar index losing 0.6% to 104.30. Central bankers in major countries are seen trying to push the Dollar down coordinating attack on the Greenback. These are central banks of China, Japan, the United Kingdom, Eurozone and the United States too. The U.S. Dollar strengthened by 5% against world’s major currencies in the last two months. The Yuan and the Yen were very close to the dangerous edge where these currencies could deteriorate rapidly.
Brent crude prices are rising by 1.3% to $90.50 per barrel of Brent crude this week. This is the best performance in seven consecutive days since May 2023. The question is how long crude price would increase further considering a global economy slowdown. Macroeconomic data in developed countries now corresponds most with the end of 2022 and autumn of 2020. This is low performance, and in both cases crude prices were under pressure. This time it is totally different. Crude prices are rallying by 20% since July, and are likely to continue up.
Renewed fears of a possible U.S. Debt selloff by China shook the market after Beijing-based Global Times tabloid newspaper under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party published an article last Thursday quoting Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, that was saying that “China will gradually decrease its holdings of U.S. debt to about $800 billion under normal circumstances”.  Xi Junyang has not provided any timeframe of such possible selloff. But, he added that “China might sell all of its U.S. bonds in an extreme case, like a military conflict.
Japan, the world’s third largest economy after the United States and China, is heading towards a major economic crisis with a dramatic plunge of its GDP in August. The actual annualized GDP of Japan that has been released on the third week of August fell by 27.8%, well below the record of -17.8% in 2009. This is the lowest reading ever for Japanese economy since 1980, when Japan has started to release comparable figures of its economy performance.  Analysts  forecasted Japan’s annualized GDP to drop by 27.2%. Japanese quarterly GDP dropped by 7.
Gold has been traded long since mid of June until August 7 from $1765.00 per troy ounce to hit a new high of $2073.543 per troy ounce. The yellow safe haven asset has been increasing in value dramatically due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In addition, due to several factors’ gold started to drop and traded short to $1863.173 per troy ounce retesting July 22 level.  Firstly, gold started to drop because of gold holders represented by banks and institutional traders has decided to sell the yellow metal to cash out and rebalance their portfolios to invest into more risky assets.
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