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30.06.2022
06:24
WTI Price Analysis: Weekly ascending trend channel defends buyers above $108.00
  • WTI pares the biggest daily losses in a week inside a bullish chart pattern.
  • Pullback from 200-SMA, bearish MACD signals challenge buyers.
  • Bears need validation from $106.40, RSI hints at gradual recovery.

WTI crude oil prices consolidate the week’s biggest daily loss while picking up bids to $108.70 heading into Thursday’s European session.

The black gold dropped the most in over a week the previous day while stepping back from the 200-SMA. However, the support line of a one-week-old bullish trend channel triggered recovery moves earlier in the day.

That said, the bearish MACD signals challenge the upside momentum, suggesting the need for an upside break of the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels of June 08-22 downside, respectively around $108.85 and $111.25, to recall the buyers.

Even so, the 200-SMA level of $112.25 will precede a convergence of the stated channel’s upper line and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, near $113.60, to challenge the commodity’s further upside.

Meanwhile, pullback moves should break the channel’s support line, close to $108.00 by the press time, to tease WTI sellers.

Though, multiple levels marked since June 20, between $107.00 and $106.40, could challenge the quote’s further downside before highlighting the monthly low of $101.17 for oil bears.

Overall, WTI remains in the recovery mode but the upside momentum has multiple speed breakers.

WTI: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further upside expected

 

06:06
German Retail Sales plunge by 3.6% YoY in May vs. -2.0% expected
  • German Retail Sales arrived at -3.6% YoY in May vs. -2.0% expected.
  • Retail Sales in Germany stood at 0.6% MoM in May vs. 0.5% expected.

Germany's Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in May versus 0.5% expected and -5.4% last, the official figures released by Destatis showed on Thursday.

On an annualized basis, the bloc’s Retail Sales came in at -3.6% in May versus -2.0% expected and -0.4% booked in April.

FX implications

The euro is little changed on the mixed German data. At the time of writing, the major trades at 1.0457, adding 0.18% on the day.

About German Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth is usually anticipated as "bullish" for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.

06:05
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Sees a downside below the crucial support of 1.0430 EURUSD
  • Declining 20- and 50-period EMAs add to the downside filters.
  • The RSI (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00.
  • EUR/USD may re-test June’s low after violating the critical support of 1.0433.

The EUR/USD pair has displayed a poor rebound after hitting a low of 1.0433 in the Asian session. The asset is attempting to sustain above 1.0450. However, the overall trend is bearish as the asset surrendered its psychological support of 1.0500 on Wednesday.

The shared currency bulls are attempting to defend the two-week-old crucial support of 1.0444, recorded on June 17. The trendline placed from Tuesday’s high at 1.0606 will act as a major resistance for the eurozone bulls.

The 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 1.0463 and 1.0494 respectively are declining, which adds to the downside filters.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates more downside ahead. Investors should not initiate aggressive shorts now as the RSI (14) is attempting to 40.00, which may turn the asset sideways.

The greenback bulls could strengthen further if the asset drops below Thursday’s low at 1.0433. An occurrence of the same will drag the asset towards June 14 low at 1.0397. A slippage below June 14 low will expose the asset to more downside levels of the Jun 15 low at 1.0359.

On the flip side, a decisive move above June 22 low at 1.0469 will drive the asset towards Wednesday’s high at 1.0535, followed by Tuesday’s high at 1.0606.

EUR/USD hourly chart

 

 

06:02
UK Final GDP arrives at 0.8% QoQ in Q1 2022, meets estimates

The UK economy expanded 0.8% on quarter in the first quarter of 2022, confirming the 0.8% growth reported in the first readout and meeting forecasts of 0.8%, the final revision published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed Thursday.

The annual figures showed that the UK GDP rose by 8.7% in Q1 vs. 8.7% previous and 8.7% expected.

Meanwhile, the Current Account data for the first quarter of 2022 came in at GBP-51.7B vs. GBP-39.8B expected and GBP-7.3B previous.

Market reaction

As of writing, GBP/USD is holding higher ground near 1.2150, 0.18% up on the day.

06:02
United Kingdom Current Account registered at £-51.7B, below expectations (£-39.8B) in 1Q
06:01
South Africa Private Sector Credit registered at 5.34%, below expectations (5.9%) in May
06:01
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.8%) in 1Q
06:01
South Africa M3 Money Supply (YoY) below forecasts (7.94%) in May: Actual (7.29%)
06:01
Germany Import Price Index (YoY) below expectations (31.5%) in May: Actual (30.6%)
06:01
Germany Retail Sales (MoM) above forecasts (0.5%) in May: Actual (0.6%)
06:01
Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.9%, below expectations (1.6%) in May
06:01
United Kingdom Current Account came in at £-51.673B, below expectations (£-39.8B) in 1Q
06:01
Denmark Unemployment Rate: 2.1% (May) vs 2%
06:00
United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) came in at 8.3%, below expectations (8.5%) in 1Q
06:00
United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) below expectations (-0.5%) in 1Q: Actual (-0.6%)
06:00
United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) in line with expectations (8.7%) in 1Q
06:00
Germany Retail Sales (YoY) below expectations (-2%) in May: Actual (-3.6%)
06:00
Denmark Gross Domestic Product (YoY) down to 6.2% in 1Q from previous 6.7%
06:00
Denmark Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) fell from previous -0.1% to -0.5% in 1Q
06:00
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) came in at 10.7% below forecasts (10.8%) in June
06:00
United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) came in at 0.3% below forecasts (0.5%) in June
05:56
Crude Oil Futures: Further downside not favoured

Considering preliminary readings from CME Group for crude oil futures markets, traders scaled back their open interest positions by around 3.5K contracts after two consecutive daily pullbacks on Thursday. Volume, instead, went up for the second session in a row, now by almost 30K contracts.

WTI now retargets $114.00

Wednesday’s corrective downside in prices of the WTI was against the backdrop of diminishing open interest, which is indicative that extra losses appear not favoured in the very near term. That said, the commodity could attempt another visit to the weekly high at $114.00 per barrel.

05:56
Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD sellers keep their sights on $1,800, US PCE inflation in focus

Gold Price was knocked down to its lowest level since mid-June at $1,812. As FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta notes, the yellow metal remains exposed to downside risks.

XAUUSD awaits US PCE inflation for a sustained move lower

“The Core PCE inflation is seen easing to 4.7% YoY in May vs. 4.9% previous. Softer core figures could suggest that inflation is peaking, prompting investors to believe that Fed could go slow on its tightening cycle. Thus, gold could attract fresh demand in line with expectations or below forecasts reading, as it would down the dollar alongside the yields.”

“Wednesday’s low of $1,1812 could offer immediate support to bulls, below which the June 15 low of $1,808 will be under threat, as a breach of the $1,800 mark remains on the table.”

“Any upside attempt would need buyers to recapture the pennant support turned resistance, now at $1,824. Acceptance above the latter will fuel a decent bounce towards the $1,836 area.”

 

05:55
USD/TRY fails to cheer Turkiye’s supplementary budget approval below 17.00
  • USD/TRY picks up bids to mild gains, pares weekly losses.
  • Turkish Parliament passes $53 billion supplementary budget to battle inflation.
  • Fears of recession escalate as global central banks stay ready for aggressive rate hikes.
  • Turkish trade numbers, CBRT Minutes and the US PCE Price Index will be important to watch for fresh impulse.

USD/TRY consolidates weekly losses around 16.67 heading into Thursday’s European session. In doing so, the Turkish lira (TRY) pair ignores the Turkiye’s supplementary budget approval, as well as the US dollar’s pullback, amid inflation and economic slowdown fears.

“Turkiye's parliament approved an 880 billion lira ($52.73 billion) supplementary budget,” Turkish Finance Minister (FinMin) Nureddin Nebati said late on Wednesday per Reuters. Turkish FinMin Nebati also mentioned the objective for such a step as to cover the rising costs of a currency slide, soaring energy prices and rampant inflation.

On a different page, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats to 104.99 while snapping a two-day rebound at the highest levels in a fortnight. The greenback’s losses appear linked with the fresh uptick in the US Treasury yields. the US 10-year Treasury yields snap a two-day downtrend as the key bond coupons rebound from the weekly low to 3.10%, up one basis point (bp) by the press time.

Even so, downbeat prints of the US stock futures and fears that the inflation woes will last longer, which in turn could trigger a recession, seem to propel the USD/TRY prices. Recently, the first major US bank to call the recession, namely Deutsche Bank, signaled that the US inflation could keep disappointing the Fed as the policymakers expected a gradual reduction in price pressure.

On Wednesday, the major central bankers’ readiness to battle inflation, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown. The moves raised concerns over the recession and gain more attention of the USD/TRY traders amid multi-year high Turkish inflation and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rejection of rate hikes.

Moving on, Turkish trade numbers for May and Minutes of the latest Central Bank of Republic of Turkiye (CBRT), when the rates remain unchanged, will be important for the USD/TRY traders. Above all, the US the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, expected 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% prior, will be an important catalyst to watch for short-term directions.

Technical analysis

Unless providing a daily close below an upward sloping support line from late December 2021, around 16.58 by the press time, USD/TRY remains on the buyer’s radar.

 

05:38
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Faces hurdle around 0.6900 after defending 0.6850s demand zone
  • Aussie bulls have defended the demand zone in a range of 0.6850-0.6867.
  • The RSI (14) has reclaimed the 40.00-60.00 range, which signals a responsive buying action.
  • The trendline placed from 0.7070 will act as a major hurdle for the pair.

The AUD/USD pair has witnessed a firmer rebound after failing to sustain below 0.6860. A responsive buying action has driven the asset strongly above 0.69000. However, a mild correction has turned the asset sideways.

On an hourly scale, aussie bulls have attracted some significant bids after testing the critical demand zone placed in a narrow range of 0.6850-0.6867. A responsive buying action has been witnessed, which strengthened the asset to attack the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6898. While, the 200-period EMA at 0.6930 is still higher than the asset, which indicates that the long-term trend is still down.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has reclaimed the 40.00-60.00 range, which signals that the aussie bulls are no weaker now.

It is worth noting that trendline placed from June 16 high at 0.7070, adjoining Tuesday’s high at 0.6965 will continue to act as major resistance for the counter.

The aussie bulls could lift the asset price higher if the major overstep Wednesday’s high at 0.6965. This will drive the asset towards the psychological resistance at 0.7000, followed by June 13 high at 0.7035.

On the flip side, the aussie bulls could lose their grip if the asset drops below June 23 low at 0.6868. This will drag the asset towards May 12 low and the round-level support at 0.6829 and 0.6800 respectively.

AUD/USD hourly chart

 

 

 

 

05:26
EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Retreats from 21-SMA but stays on the bull’s radar above 0.8600 EURGBP
  • EUR/GBP keeps the previous day’s pullback from fortnight high, pressured around intraday low.
  • Multiple SMAs, ascending trend line from mid-May joins steady RSI to keep buyers hopeful.
  • Weekly resistance line adds to the upside filters.

EUR/GBP remains depressed around 0.8615 heading into Thursday’s European session, extending the previous day’s pullback from a two-week top below 21-SMA.

Given the bearish MACD signals and the cross-currency pair’s break of immediate SMA, the EUR/GBP prices are likely to drop towards the 100-SMA level of 0.8590.

However, an ascending trend line from May 17, near 0.8565, joins a steady RSI to keep the pair buyers hopeful.

Even if the quote drops below 0.8565 support, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June upside and the 200-SMA, respectively near 0.8560 and 0.8550, will challenge the EUR/GBP bears before giving them control.

Meanwhile, the 21-SMA level of 0.8621 guards the quote’s immediate recovery ahead of the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.8645.

Following that, an upward sloping resistance line from the last Thursday, at 0.8668 by the press time, could act as the last defense of the EUR/GBP sellers.

In a case where the pair rises past 0.8668, the odds favoring a run-up towards the 0.8700 and then to the monthly high of 0.8721 can’t be ruled out.

EUR/GBP: Four-hour chart

Trend: Bullish

 

05:23
GBP/USD: Downside pressure improved – UOB GBPUSD

GBP/USD could now grind lower and revisit the 1.2040 region in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that the ‘the rapid decline in GBP appears to have room to break the major support at 1.2165’. We added, ‘oversold conditions suggest that the next support at 1.2120 is unlikely to come into the picture’. Our view for a weaker GBP was not wrong even though the extent of the decline exceeded our expectations as GBP dropped sharply to 1.2106. While GBP could continue to weaken, conditions remain oversold and the next support at 1.2040 is likely out of reach for now. On the upside, a break of 1.2175 (minor resistance is at 1.2150) would indicate that the current weakness has stabilized.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Yesterday (29 Jun, spot at 1.2185), we indicated that the recent consolidation phase. We highlighted that downward momentum is only beginning to build and any weakness from here could be limited to 1.2120 for now. While our view for a weaker GBP was correct, the pace of the decline was more rapid than expected as GBP plummeted to a low of 1.2106. Downward momentum has improved considerably and GBP could decline further to the next support at 1.2040. On the upside, a break of the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.2205 (level was at 1.2285 yesterday) would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.”

05:18
Gold Futures: Door open to further decline

CME Group’s flash data for gold futures markets noted open interest increased by around 2.2K contracts on Wednesday. In the same line, volume went up by around 45.6K contracts, extending the erratic performance for yet another session.

Gold now targets $1,800

Gold prices remained on the defensive on Thursday amidst rising open interest and volume. Against that, the precious metal now shifts its focus to the key support at the $1,800 zone per ounce troy.

05:13
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD bears eye $1,800 ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation data
  • Gold Price prints four-day downtrend despite recent rebound from intraday low.
  • US dollar retreat, two-week-old support line restrict immediate downside.
  • Bulls need validation from market sentiment, US PCE Price Index data.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) licks its wounds around the intraday low of $1,815 as traders await the key US data during early Thursday morning in Europe. Even so, the risk-off mood exerts downside pressure on the bullion.

The metal’s hesitance to decline further could be linked to the US dollar’s pullback from the highest levels in two weeks. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats to 104.99 while snapping a two-day rebound at the highest levels in a fortnight.

The greenback’s losses appear linked with the fresh uptick in the US Treasury yields. the US 10-year Treasury yields snap a two-day downtrend as the key bond coupons rebound from the weekly low to 3.10%, up one basis point (bp) by the press time.

It should be noted, however, that the downbeat prints of the US stock futures and fears that the inflation woes will last longer, which in turn could trigger a recession, seem to exert downside pressure on the Gold Price.

Recently, the first major US bank to call the recession, namely Deutsche Bank, signaled that the US inflation could keep disappointing the Fed.

On Wednesday, the major central bankers’ readiness to battle inflation, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown, drowned market sentiment and XAU/USD.

Among them, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeated his latest pledge to battle inflation with readiness to announce another 0.75% rate hike if needed. The Fed Boss also praised the US economic strength and helped the US dollar to remain firmer. It’s worth noting that Powell’s comments suggesting challenges for US jobs data during the battle with inflation appears to have weighed on the risk profile of late.

Looking forward, the US the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, expected 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% prior, will be an important catalyst to watch for short-term directions.

Also read: US PCE Inflation May Preview: Inflation becomes moot

Technical analysis

Gold Price extends pullback from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of May 16 to June 12 upside amid sluggish MACD signals and downbeat RSI line, not oversold.

That said, the precious metal sellers presently flirt with a six-week-long support line near $1,814 with eyes on the monthly bottom surrounding $1,805.

Following that, the $1,800 round figure and the yearly low of $1,786 could lure XAU/USD bears.

On the contrary, an upside break of the 61.8% Fibo. level of $1,822 could escalate the corrective pullback towards a convergence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and a fortnight-old resistance line, near $1,833.

Also acting as an upside hurdle is the 200-SMA and the mid-month monthly peak, respectively near $1,840 and $1,858.

Gold: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

 

05:07
EUR/USD now risks a deeper pullback – UOB EURUSD

FX Strategists at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann and Quek Ser Leang noted EUR/USD faces a solid support around 1.0350 for the time being.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “We highlighted yesterday that ‘downward momentum has improved and the risk is on the downside’. We added, ‘any weakness is likely to face solid support at 1.0485’. The anticipated weakness exceeded our expectations as EUR easily cracked 1.0485 and plummeted to 1.0433. While oversold, the rapid decline could extend to 1.0400. For today, a sustained decline below this level is unlikely. Resistance is at 1.0475 followed by 1.0505.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “We have expected EUR to consolidate for close to 2 weeks. Our view was not wrong as EUR consolidated until yesterday (29 Jun) when it plummeted below the bottom of our expected 1.0460/1.0630 range (low of 1.0433). The price actions suggest that the consolidation phase has ended. The risk has shifted to the downside and a break of 1.0400 would not be surprising. That said, 1.0350 is expected to offer solid support. Overall, only a break of the ‘strong resistance’, currently at 1.0535 would indicate that the downside risk has dissipated.”

05:03
GBP/USD rebounds to near 1.2140 on subdued DXY, UK GDP and US Core PCE Price Index eyed GBPUSD
  • GBP/USD has attracted some bids around 1.2106 as the DXY has surrendered 105.00.
  • The pound bulls are weakened as the UK economy is facing a very large real income shock.
  • UK’s GDP numbers are seen stable while the annual US core PCE Price Index may slip to 4.7%.

The GBP/USD pair has attempted a rebound after sensing less selling pressure while testing Wednesday’s low at 1.2106. To make the rebound a little more trustworthy, the pound bulls need to drive the cable above the intraday high at 1.2140.

On Wednesday, the pound bulls were hammered strongly by the market participants after Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey uncovered inflation risks. BOE Bailey commented that the UK economy is facing a very large real income shock. Well, a country that is operating at a 9.1% inflation rate must be facing harsh consequences of accelerating price pressures.

A higher inflation rate in the UK economy has diminished the value of ‘paychecks’ received by the households. Individuals are spending significantly higher on fossil fuels and food products despite the quantity remaining constant or lower. This has reduced their real income and henceforth, the overall demand. No doubt, the BOE will resort to more rate hike announcements going forward. Going forward, the focus will remain on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers, which are seen as stable at 0.8% and 8.7% for the first quarter on a quarterly and yearly basis.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is expected to extend losses intraday as the asset has surrendered the psychological support of 105.00. In today’s session, investors' focus will remain on the core US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The annual figure may decline to 4.7% from the prior print of 4.9%. However, the monthly figure is seen higher to 0.4% vs. 0.3% reported earlier.

 

05:01
Japan Annualized Housing Starts dipped from previous 0.883M to 0.828M in May
05:00
Japan Housing Starts (YoY) below forecasts (1.7%) in May: Actual (-4.3%)
05:00
Japan Construction Orders (YoY) remains at 30.5% in May
04:37
Steel Price fades recovery as China PMIs jostle with recession woes
  • Steel Price pares intraday gains as traders fears more supplies, economic slowdown.
  • China’s official PMIs fail to please metal buyers amid broad pessimism.
  • US dollar retreat probes bears ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Steel Price struggle to extend the weekly gains, bracing for the quarterly loss, as fears of recession join supply woes during Thursday’s Asian session. Even so, industrial metal manages to react to the firmer activity numbers from China.

That said, construction steel rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) edged up 0.1% around 4,370 yuan per metric tonne, while hot-rolled coil decline 0.1% by the press time. Further, Stainless steel rose 0.8% intraday but stays pressured of late.

Talking about China data, the preliminary readings of official PMIs for May came in better than previous readings. That said, the headline NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 versus 49.6 prior, versus 50.4 forecasts. Further, Non-Manufacturing PMI rallied to 54.7 versus 52.5 expected and 47.8 in previous readings.

However, the major central bankers’ readiness to battle inflation, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown, recently exerts downside pressure on the market sentiment.

Among them, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeated his latest pledge to battle inflation with readiness to announce another 0.75% rate hike if needed. The Fed Boss also praised the US economic strength and helped the US dollar to remain firmer. It’s worth noting that Powell’s comments suggesting challenges for US jobs data during the battle with inflation appears to have weighed on the risk profile of late.

While portraying the mood, the US 10-year Treasury yields snap a two-day downtrend as the key bond coupons rebound from the weekly low to 3.10%, up one basis point (bp). The same seems to probe the US dollar buyers as the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from a two-week high to 105.00. Further, the S&P 500 Futures drop 0.30% intraday to 3,810 at the latest.

Elsewhere, increasing steel production in Asia and the recent increase in the output appears to have exerted additional downside pressure on Steel Price.

Moving on, the metal prices are likely to remain pressured with today’s US the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, expected 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% prior, being an important catalyst to watch for short-term directions. Should the Fed’s preferred inflation index remain firmer, the odds of witnessing aggressive rate hikes can’t be ruled out, which in turn appears negative for commodities. Additionally, the higher rates also negatively affect the growth and demand for the industrial metal, offering a double-barrel attack on the metal if today’s US data came in firmer.

 

04:32
Asian Stock Market: Trades mix as Nikkei225 underperforms, DXY subdued, oil rebounds
  • Asian equities are performing mixed as Nikkei225 has tumbled on mixed data.
  • A minor correction in the DXY has supported the Asian indices.
  • Oil prices have rebounded minutely after a significant correction from $114.00.

Markets in the Asian domain are trading mixed as the Nikkei225 has tumbled on mixed Industrial Production data. Other indices are performing well on subdued performance from the US dollar index (DXY) in the Asian session.

At the press time, China A50 added 1.80%, Hang Seng remained mute, Nifty50 added 0.50% while Japan’s Nikkei225 tumbled 1.52%.

Japan’s indices are underperforming on account of mixed Industrial Production data. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry from Japan have reported the monthly Industrial Production figure -7.2%, extremely lower vs. -0.3% estimated and the prior release of -1.5%. While the annual figure has improved to -2.8% from the consensus and the former release of -5.9% and -4.9% respectively.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) is displaying a subdued performance in the Asian session after a bullish Wednesday.  The DXY displayed a firmer upside move after Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell stated that "There are pathways to go back to 2% inflation with a strong labor market; no guarantee." The unavailability of confirmation from Fed Powell on bringing the inflation rate to 2% strengthened the DXY bulls. Going forward, the release of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index will remain in focus.

On the oil front, the black gold witnessed a steep correction on Wednesday after the comments from central banks in ECB’s annual Forum on Central Banking diminished the growth forecasts. However, a strong rebound has been witnessed in Tokyo.

 

 

 

 

 

04:31
Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) declined to 0.1% in May from previous 8.5%
04:13
USD/RUB bounces off seven-year low towards 53.00 ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation gauge
  • USD/RUB licks its wounds around multi-year low amid sluggish session.
  • Ukraine hints at no end to Russian grain blockade, Fed’s Powell repeats latest hawkish comments.
  • Fears of recession underpin risk-off mood but rebound in Treasury yields probe USD bulls ahead of the key data.

USD/RUB picks up bids to refresh intraday high around 52.82, after falling to the lowest levels since May 2015 the previous day. That said, the Russian ruble (RUB) pair’s latest rebound could be linked to the market’s anxiety before the key inflation number from the US.

On Tuesday, the major central bankers’ readiness to battle inflation, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown, recently exerts downside pressure on the market sentiment.

Among them, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell repeated his latest pledge to battle inflation with readiness to announce another 0.75% rate hike if needed. The Fed Boss also praised the US economic strength and helped the US dollar to remain firmer. It’s worth noting that Powell’s comments suggesting challenges for US jobs data during the battle with inflation appears to have weighed on the risk profile of late.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, on the other hand, signaled chances of a heavier rate increase in September while also expecting positive growth rates. Further, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey raised concerns about real income shock.

At home, “A deal to end Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian seaports and grain exports remains distant because Moscow is using talks to push its war aims and ambition to dominate the Black Sea, Kyiv’s top negotiator said,” per the Financial Times (FT).

It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury yields snap a two-day downtrend as the key bond coupons rebound from the weekly low to 3.10%, up one basis point (bp). The same seems to probe the US dollar buyers as the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats from a two-week high to 105.00.

Even so, fears that central bankers are firm in their determination to battle the inflation woes, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown, seem to weigh on the risk appetite and drown the S&P 500 Futures, down 0.30% to 3,825 at the latest.

Given the scheduled release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for May, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, expected 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% prior, nothing matters more than the data. However, Russia's ruble-for-oil strategy and the latest jump in energy prices appear to weigh on the USD/RUB prices.

Technical analysis

USD/RUB remains bearish unless crossing the weekly resistance line near 54.00.

 

03:58
USD/INR Price News: Indian rupee bears approach 79.00 as oil rebounds, US inflation eyed
  • USD/INR picks up bids to reverse the previous day’s pullback from a record high.
  • Risk-aversion, firmer USD join INR NDFs, rebound in oil prices to keep pair buyers hopeful.
  • US Core PCE Price Index awaited, recession fears hint at the further upside.

USD/INR regains upside momentum, after stepping back from a record top near 79.00 the previous day, even as the USD retreats during Thursday’s Asian session. That said, the pair picks up bids to 78.92 at the latest, following the all-time high of 79.09 marked on Wednesday.

The Indian rupee (INR) pair’s latest gains could be traced to the firmer oil prices, up 0.40% around $110.00 by the press time. Given the Indian dependence on energy imports, strong oil prices weigh on the INR amid a record budget deficit.

At home, the bullish bets on the Non-Deliverable Forwards (NDF) hint at the further USD/INR upside. Reuters conveys the latest USD/INR NDFs around 79.10.

Elsewhere, the risk-off mood challenges the INR prices, even if the US dollar retreats from a two-week high. That said, the major central bankers’ readiness to battle inflation, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown, recently exerts downside pressure on the market sentiment. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell mostly repeated his latest pledge to battle inflation with readiness to announce another 0.75% rate hike if needed. The Fed Boss also praised the US economic strength and helped the US dollar to remain firmer. ECB President Christine Lagarde, on the other hand, signaled chances of a heavier rate increase in September while also expecting positive growth rates. Further, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey raised concerns about real income shock.

While the USD/INR buyers are bracing for the fresh record high, they would wait for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for May, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, expected 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% prior, for fresh impulse.

Technical analysis

Any pullback remains elusive until USD/INR stays above the previous resistance line from early March, at 78.60 by the press time.

 

03:52
USD/CAD sees a bumpy ride as DXY slips below 105.00, oil rebounds USDCAD
  • USD/CAD is likely to display some losses as DXY skids and oil rebounds.
  • As per Fed Powell, even a spree of rate hikes doesn’t guarantee the return of the inflation rate to 2%.
  • Oil prices witnessed a significant correction as comments from central banks diminishes demand forecasts.

The USD/CAD pair has sensed barricades around the round-level resistance of 1.2900 in the Asian session. The asset has witnessed offers as the US dollar index (DXY) is going through a mild correction after failing to cross the critical hurdle of 105.19. The loonie bulls may drive the asset lower if it slips below the crucial support of 1.2877.

On a broader note, the DXY is principally strong as the Federal Reserve (Fed) looks bound to step up the interest rates further. Fed chair Jerome Powell is dictating on a repetitive note that the Fed is ‘unintentionally committed’ to bringing price stability to the economy. To fulfill the objective, interest rate elevation is the only measure as balance sheet reduction has already been announced.

The Fed has raised its interest rates to 1.50-1.75% in its last three monetary policy meetings, however, no impact has been recorded on the inflation rate. Therefore, more rate hikes look possible in the upcoming policy meets. One thing that has bolstered the DXY for a prolonged period is the statement by Fed Powell that even a spree of rate hikes doesn’t guarantee that the inflation rate will return to 2% from a whopping figure of 8.6% recorded for May.

On the oil front, a firmer rebound has been witnessed in the oil prices. The oil prices witnessed a steep correction on Wednesday after the comments from central banks in ECB’s annual Forum on Central Banking diminished the growth forecasts. It is worth noting that Canada is a leading exporter of oil to the US and a rebound in oil prices may support the loonie bulls.

 

 

 

03:41
USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls take a breather around 24-year high below 137.00 USDJPY
  • USD/JPY dribbles around multi-year high as overbought RSI tests buyers.
  • Last weekly top, seven-week-old resistance line guard immediate upside.
  • Convergence of 20-SMA, fortnight-old support line restricts short-term declines.

USD/JPY dribbles around the highest levels since 1998, taking rounds to 136.60 during Thursday’s Asian session.

Although overbought RSI and nearly hurdles challenge intraday buyers, the yen pair remains on the bull’s radar after rising for four consecutive days.

That said, the previous multi-year high around 136.70, marked during the last week, appears to restrict the USD/JPY pair’s immediate upside.

Following that, the one-week-old ascending resistance line can challenge the bulls at around 137.00.

In a case where the USD/JPY remains firmer past 137.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of June 16-23 moves, near 137.50, will be in focus.

On the contrary, the 20-SMA and an upward sloping support line from June 16 restrict immediate downside around 135.85. Also challenging the bears are the upbeat MACD signal and bullish RSI divergence.

It’s worth noting that the downside break of 135.85 won’t hesitate to direct USD/JPY bears toward the 100-SMA support of 134.90 while the last Thursday’s low around 134.25 could challenge the sellers afterward.

Overall, USD/JPY remains on the bull’s radar despite recent inaction around the multi-year top.

USD/JPY: Four-hour chart

Trend: Further upside expected

 

03:19
EUR/USD finds bids around 1.0430, downside remains favored ahead of US PCE Price Index EURUSD
  • EUR/USD has displayed a modest rebound on a minor correction in the DXY.
  • The central banks do not see the return of a lower inflation environment.
  • The US PCE Price Index may slip to 4.7% vs. 4.9% recorded earlier.

The EUR/USD pair has witnessed a minor rebound after hovering around 1.0430 in the early Tokyo session. In the past two trading sessions, the asset has fallen like a house of cards after failing to sustain above the round-level resistance of 1.0600. The major extended its losses on Wednesday after violating the psychological support of 1.0500.

The initiation of significant shorts by the market participants escalated on Wednesday after pessimist commentary from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. In the ECB’s annual Forum on Central Banking, ECB Lagarde cleared that the economy is not going to return to the low inflation environment. Also, the inflation expectations will remain elevated further.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supply chain bottlenecks have resulted in soaring food and energy prices, which have diminished the real income of the households significantly.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) has witnessed a minor fall after failing to cross the critical resistance of 105.19. The odds of a consecutive 75 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have advanced as the Fed is ‘unintentionally committed’ to cool the hot-red inflation. This will compel the Fed to announce more rate hikes.

In addition to ECB Lagarde, Fed Powell has also delivered no guarantee of returning higher inflation to the targeted rate of 2%.

Going forward, investors will focus on the release of the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which may decline to 4.7% from the prior print of 4.9% on an annual basis. However, the monthly figure is seen higher to 0.4% vs. 0.3% reported earlier.

 

 

 

 

03:13
Saudi Arabia may raise Aug crude prices to Asia to near record levels

OPEC”s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is reported to raise prices of light crude grades to Asia for the second straight month in August, Reuters cites.  

The price surge by Saudi comes on the back of record distillate margins and strong spot premiums for Middle Eastern oil this month.

Additional details

The official selling price (OSP) for Saudi's flagship Arab Light crude could rise by about $2.4 a barrel from the previous month, according to nine refining sources surveyed by Reuters on June 28-29.

The price hike would drive the August OSP close to record levels, set when May Arab Light crude reached $9.35 a barrel.

Market reaction

WTI was last seen up 0.48% on the day at $108.80.

  • WTI stabilizes below $110.00 ahead of OPEC meeting, oil stockpiles plunge
02:57
Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD could see a dead cat bounce towards $1,837 – Confluence Detector
  • The end-of-quarter flows could save the day for Gold Price.  
  • Policy panel at ECB Forum powered the US dollar, ahead of PCE inflation.
  • XAUUSD bulls jump in even as US Treasury yields rebound amid mixed markets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s pledge to control inflation by resorting to aggressive tightening powered the US dollar across the board while widening the policy divergence between the ECB and BOE. This weighed heavily on the non-interest-bearing Gold Price even though the US Treasury yields tumbled amid risk-off flows. With the ECB Sintra Forum out of the way, the end-of-the-quarter flows and the US inflation data will drive the metal’s price action. Any reprieve in gold price is likely to remain temporary amid hawkish Fed stance and growing recession fears, which are likely to keep the safe-haven demand for the dollar buoyed.

Also read: Attention turns to inflation data

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

The Technical Confluence Detector shows that Gold Price is witnessing a dead cat bounce after three straight days of losses. On its recovery mode, the bright metal is challenging strong resistance around $1,822, which is the convergence of the SMA5 one-day and SMA1o four-hour.

The confluence of the Fibonacci 61.8% one-day and the Fibonacci 23.6% one-week at $1,825 will threaten XAU bulls. Further up, bulls will need to crack the $1,831 barrier, where the SMA10 one-day, pivot point one-day R1 and SMA50 four-hour.

The next critical resistance around $1,835 will test the bearish commitments. That level is the meeting point of the SMA100 four-hour, Fibonacci 38.2% one-month and Fibonacci 61.8%

On the flip side, the immediate support is seen at the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day at $1,819, below which the 23.6% Fibonacci level one-day at $1,817 will be probed.

developing story ....

02:43
Copper prices see a downside below $3.70 on soaring recession fears
  • Copper prices have continued their rangebound moves ahead of Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
  • The base metal may display more losses as comments from central banks have lowered the demand forecasts.
  • The inflation rate is not expected to return to 2% despite a solid US economy.

Copper Price, per the COMEX Futures, is displaying topsy-turvy moves in the Asian session. The base metal is oscillating in a narrow range of $3.7155-3.8455 this week after remaining in the grip of bears for the whole month. A sigh of relief doesn’t warrant a reversal as advancing recession fears are underpinning more slippage in the overall demand, and eventually in the copper prices.

The commentary from central banks in European Central Bank (ECB)'s annual Forum on Central Banking has cleared that a higher inflation rate will stay for a prolonged period and currently, the households are facing the headwinds of diminished real income.

ECB President Christine Lagarde has cleared that after recognizing the inflation rate above 8%, it is unlikely to return to the environment of low inflation rates. Also, Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell dictated that to cool down the hot-red inflation, a quick rate hiking process is necessary. However, that doesn’t guarantee an inflation rate of around 2%. It will take time but the market participants will start understanding that high inflation rates are a new normal now. Also, this will keep the US dollar index (DXY) at elevated levels for a longer period.

Going forward, investors are focusing on the release of the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which is due on Friday. A preliminary estimate for the economic data is 50.1, higher than the former figure of 48.1. A higher-than-estimated figure will support the copper prices as it will dictate higher usage of copper in June.

 

 

02:30
Commodities. Daily history for Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Raw materials Closed Change, %
Brent 115.34 -1.6
Silver 20.746 -0.4
Gold 1818.2 -0.07
Palladium 1957.09 4.55
02:29
AUD/JPY pierces 94.00 on upbeat China data, rebound in yields
  • AUD/JPY takes the bids to refresh intraday high but stays inside short-term trading range.
  • China’s official PMIs for June came in better than previous, yields bounce off weekly low.
  • Downbeat Japan data adds strength to the corrective pullback.
  • Market sentiment remains sour amid recession, inflation fears.

AUD/JPY renews intraday high around 94.15 as the quote cheers upbeat data from China, as well as a rebound in the US Treasury yields, during Thursday’s Asian session.

That said, China’s preliminary readings of official PMIs for June came in better than previous with the headline NBS Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.2 versus 49.6 prior, versus 50.4 forecasts. Further, Non-Manufacturing PMI rallied to 54.7 versus 52.5 expected and 47.8 in previous readings.

Earlier in the day, preliminary readings of Japan’s Industrial Production for May slumped to -7.2% MoM versus -0.3% expected and -1.5% prior.

It’s worth noting that the US 10-year Treasury yields snap a two-day downtrend as the key bond coupons rebound from the weekly low to 3.10%, up one basis point (bp).

Even so, fears that central bankers are firm in their determination to battle the inflation woes, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown, seem to weigh on the risk appetite and drown the S&P 500 Futures, down 0.30% to 3,825 at the latest.

In addition to the recession fears, AUD/JPY buyers also witness hardships due to the market’s anxiety ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, for May, expected 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% prior.

Technical analysis

Bearish MACD signals and steady RSI keeps AUD/JPY sellers hopeful even though the quote seesaws between the monthly support line and a three-week-long resistance line, respectively around 93.60 and 94.40.

 

02:09
GBP/USD Price Analysis: Bears attack 1.2100 with eyes on yearly low, key UK/US data GBPUSD

  • GBP/USD remains pressured around two-week low, prints four-day downtrend.
  • Clear downside break of seven-week-old horizontal area joins bearish MACD signals, downbeat RSI to favor sellers.
  • Bulls to remain skeptical unless crossing monthly resistance line.

GBP/USD struggles around a fortnight low while defending 1.2100 during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Cable pair portrays the mixed sentiment of traders ahead of the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.

Despite the recent corrective pullback, the quote maintains the previous day’s downside break of a horizontal support since May 12, now resistance around 1.2155-70. Also keeping the pair sellers hopeful area the bearish signals from the MACD and the RSI (14).

That said, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of May-June fall, around 1.2100, challenge the quote’s immediate downside ahead of the 1.2000 psychological magnet.

Following that, the GBP/USD south-run could aim for the yearly low of 1.1933 before declining further.

Alternatively, recovery remains elusive until the quote stays below 1.2170, a break of which could direct the pair towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2215.

It should be noted, however, that the confluence of the 20-DMA, fortnight-old resistance line and 50% Fibonacci retracement appears a tough nut to crack for GBP/USD bulls around 1.2300.

GBP/USD: Daily chart

Trend: Bearish

 

01:53
NZD/USD licks its wounds around monthly low near 0.6200, US PCE inflation eyed NZDUSD
  • NZD/USD bounces off two-week low after better-than-previous China PMI data.
  • NZ Business Confidence remains downbeat, RBNZ’s Conway failed to impress bulls.
  • China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI eased below forecasts, Non-Manufacturing PMI came stronger.
  • Risk-off mood challenges pair buyers ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

NZD/USD bears take a breather around a fortnight's low after China’s monthly PMI data during Thursday’s Asian session. The kiwi pair initially dropped to the two-week low of 0.6198 before bouncing back to 0.6215. However, the risk-aversion wave and downbeat business confidence at home keep sellers hopeful.

China’s preliminary readings of official PMIs came in better than previous for May. That said, the headline NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 versus 49.6 prior, versus 50.4 forecasts. Further, Non-Manufacturing PMI rallied to 54.7 versus 52.5 expected and 47.8 in previous readings.

At home, ANZ Business Confidence dropped to -62.6 versus -33.2 forecast and -55.6 prior whereas the ANZ Activity Outlook slipped below 1.7% forecast and -4.7% previous readings to -9.1% for June.

Earlier in the day, Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Chief Economist Paul Conway tried to defend the central bank’s hawkish bias while suggesting that it will help the domestic housing market. However, the policymaker failed to impress buyers amid macro fears of economic slowdown and a firmer US dollar.

“Policy tightening will likely see actual house prices move back towards sustainable levels more in line with market fundamentals,” said RBNZ’s Conway.

The risk-off mood could also be witnessed via the US stock futures and the Treasury yields. That said, S&P 500 Futures print a four-day downtrend while the US 10-year Treasury yields drop for the third consecutive day, down one basis point (bp) to 3.087% at the latest. It should be noted that Wall Street closed mixed the previous day even as central bankers reiterated their readiness to battle inflation, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown.

Moving on, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, for May, expected 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% prior, will be a crucial catalyst for the NZD/USD prices.

Technical analysis

A clear downside break of the seven-week-old horizontal support area, now resistance around 0.6215-20 keeps NZD/USD bears hopeful to refresh the yearly low.

 

01:39
AUD/USD bounces off two-week low towards 0.6900 after China PMI, focus on US PCE inflation
  • AUD/USD remains pressured around intraday low, despite the latest rebound.
  • China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI came in softer than expected, Non-Manufacturing PMI crossed forecasts and prior during May.
  • Yields stay pressured but stock futures dwindle amid sluggish markets despite recession, inflation fears.
  • US Core PCE Price Index for May will be crucial after Fed’s Powell sounds hawkish.

AUD/USD welcomes upbeat China PMI while picking up bids at around a two-week low during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the Aussie pair leans recovers from the recently flashed bottom of 0.6853, at 0.6873 by the press time.

China’s preliminary readings of official PMIs came in better than previous for May. That said, the headline NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 versus 49.6 prior, versus 50.4 forecasts. Further, Non-Manufacturing PMI rallied to 54.7 versus 52.5 expected and 47.8 in previous readings.

It’s worth noting that the trader’s anxiety ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, for May, expected 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% prior,  weighs on the market sentiment and the AUD/USD prices.

While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures print a four-day downtrend while the US 10-year Treasury yields drop for the third consecutive day, down one basis point (bp) to 3.087% at the latest. It should be noted that Wall Street closed mixed the previous day even as central bankers reiterated their readiness to battle inflation, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown.

In addition to the pre-data caution, fears of recession and recently downbeat numbers from China also challenge market optimists and allow AUD/USD bears to keep reins. Even so, the quote is near to the important supports and the pre-data mood signals the corrective pullback ahead of the US PCE inflation numbers.

Also read: US PCE Inflation May Preview: Inflation becomes moot

Technical analysis

Any AUD/USD rebound needs validation from the 10-DMA and a two-week-old resistance line, respectively around 0.6920 and 0.6935. That said, the pair’s sustained trading below a fortnight-old descending trend line and the 10-DMA, not to forget the bearish MACD signals, direct the quote towards the yearly low of 0.6828 even if the adjacent key support line from May 12, near 0.6860, precedes the monthly low of 0.6850 to challenge immediate downside.

 

01:32
Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) rose from previous 8.6% to 9% in May
01:31
China Non-Manufacturing PMI above expectations (52.5) in June: Actual (54.7)
01:31
China's NBS Manufacturing PMI expands to 50.2 in June vs. 50.5 expected

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector expanded to 50.2 in June from 49.6 in May, the latest data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Thursday. The actual data missed the consensus estimate of 50.5. 

Meanwhile, the country’s Non-Manufacturing PMI rebounded firmly to 54.7 in June vs. 52.5 expected and 47.8 booked in May.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below suggests contraction.

Market reaction

Mixed NBS PMI numbers put a fresh bid under the aussie dollar, with AUD/USD popping up 10-pips to near 0.6875. The pair is down 0.15% on the day at the time of writing.

01:30
Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) above forecasts (0.6%) in May: Actual (0.8%)
01:30
China NBS Manufacturing PMI registered at 50.2, below expectations (50.5) in June
01:21
GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Sellers attack 20-DMA in search of further downside below 166.00
  • GBP/JPY takes offers to refresh intraday low, prints three-day downtrend.
  • Bearish MACD signals hint at further downside below immediate DMA support.
  • Weekly resistance line holds the key to buyer’s entry, seven-week-long support line appears crucial for bears.

GBP/JPY remains on the back foot for the third consecutive day, despite the sellers' recent struggle to break the 20-DMA support during Thursday’s Asian session. That said, the cross-currency pair refreshes intraday low near 165.50 by the press time.

Given the quote’s sustained weakness, as portrayed by the bearish MACD signal, coupled with the trading below the one-week-old descending resistance line, the GBP/JPY prices are likely to remain weak.

It’s worth noting, however, that a clear downside break of the 20-DMA support near 165.50 becomes necessary for the intraday sellers before they aim for the ascending support line from May 12, at 164.25 by the press time.

Should the GBP/JPY prices remain weak past 164.25, the 50-DMA level of 162.77 can challenge the bears before directing them to the monthly low of 160.00.

Meanwhile, recovery moves need validation from the weekly resistance line, close to 166.40 at the latest.

Following that, the recent swing high and the monthly top, surrounding 167.85 and 168.75 in that order, will challenge the GBP/JPY bulls.

If at all the quote rises past 168.75, the odds of witnessing a run-up towards the 170.00 threshold can’t be ruled out.

GBP/JPY: Daily chart

Trend: Further weakness expected

 

01:19
PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7114 on Thursday

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7114 on Thursday when compared to the previous fix and the previous close at 6.7035 and 6.7000 respectively.

China’s central bank injected 80 billion yuan via seven-day reverse repos at 2.10% vs prior 2.10%.

01:07
USD/JPY advances towards 137.00 amid firmer DXY and mixed Japan data USDJPY
  • USD/JPY is inching higher to recapture its fresh 23-year high around 137.00.
  • The DXY has strengthened on the expectations of a prolonged higher rates scenario in the US.
  • Japan’s mixed Industrial production data has weakened the yen bulls further.

The USD/JPY pair is aiming to recapture its fresh 23-year high around 137.00 as the US dollar index (DXY) has strengthened on hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell. In his speech at European Central Bank (ECB)'s annual Forum on Central Banking, Fed Powell has continued dictating the Fed’s objective of bringing price stability to the US economy.

As per remarks from Fed Powell, the US economy is rock solid considering the overall demand and the tight labor market. This makes it efficient to bear the consequences of the rapid rate hiking process. Accelerating price pressures have hit the real income of the households, however, the economy is strong enough to face the headwinds.

To contain the soaring price rise, the only measure is the announcement of interest rate hikes. However, the statement from Fed Powell that they don’t guarantee an inflation rate near 2% has spooked the market sentiment. This uncovers a prolonged upside for the US dollar index (DXY) as lower interest rates in the developed economy will be a bed-time story for the market participants. The DXY is advancing to reclaim its 19-year high at 105.79.

On the Tokyo front, mixed economic data has weakened the yen bulls further. The monthly Industrial Production figures have plunged to -7.2% vs. -0.3% estimated and the prior release of -1.5%. While the annual figure has improved to -2.8% from the consensus and the former release of -5.9% and -4.9% respectively.

 

01:00
New Zealand ANZ Activity Outlook registered at -9.1%, below expectations (1.7%) in June
01:00
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence below forecasts (-33.2) in June: Actual (-62.6)
00:55
US dollar bulls firm in bullish territory
  • US dollar holds in the bullish territory following a mixed US session. 
  • US data will be important for the remainder of the week, PCE eyed. 

The US dollar was higher on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explaining that there is a risk the US central bank's interest rate hikes will slow the economy too much. 

US stocks were jittery due to the concerns about the economy and on the back of data that showed the US economy shrank more than previously estimated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% to 31,029.31, while the S&P 500 fell 0.1% at 3,818.83 and the Nasdaq Composite ended in the red also to11,177.89.  The US 10-year yield sank 10.5 basis points to 3.10% as inflation worries hounded investors.

The dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six counterparts, rallied to a high of 105.149 from a low of 104.356 as investors sought safety in US assets as stocks declined globally due to the mounting risk of a recession. Nevertheless, the US dollar index stayed below the two-decade high of 105.79 pinged two weeks ago.

Looking ahead, data will be key and analysts at Westpac explained, ''weakness in personal income is raising concerns over purchasing power as households run down savings for personal spending.''

''Although PCE inflation looks to have crested, price pressures will only slowly abate through 2022. Initial jobless claims are set to remain at a low level and concerns around supply issues will remain prominent in June’s Chicago PMI.''

Meanwhile, from a positioning standpoint, speculators’ net long USD index positions ticked a little higher having surged to their highest levels since March 2017 the previous week as the market prepared for this month’s 75 bp rate hike from the Fed. 

''Speculation is beginning to emerge that the market may have over-estimated the extent to which the Fed may have to hike rates. This could soften net USD positions in forthcoming data,'' analysts at Rabobank argued. 

 

00:52
USD/JPY: Consider owning downside structures in options, go short in spot – Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs (GS) holds onto its bearish bias for the USD/JPY prices, despite the major currency pair’s latest run-up.

“We still think the Yen offers attractive asymmetry due to rising US recession risks and the prospect for a change in monetary policy in Japan itself,” said GS in its latest note.

Key quotes

In a US recession, we recently argued that end-2024 OIS rates would fall to 1-2%, or about 75-175bp below current levels.

We think investors should consider owning USD/JPY downside structures in options now, and look to go short USD/JPY in spot on clear weakness in the US labor market and/or signs of an imminent change in the BOJ's policy stance.

USD/JPY retreats from 24-year high

Despite downbeat Industrial Production for Japan, to -7.2% MoM in May versus -0.3% expected and -1.5% prior, USD/JPY eases from the multi-day high marked the previous day to 136.60 by the press time.

00:44
EUR/USD Price Analysis: Oversold RSI probes bears around 1.0450 EURUSD
  • EUR/USD remains sidelined around fortnight low, pauses two-day downtrend.
  • Oversold RSI line challenges further downside, seven-week-old support lines add to the downside filters.
  • Multiple hurdles to challenge bulls, weekly low is the last defense for sellers.

EUR/USD dribbles around a two-week low as oversold RSI conditions challenge further downside during Thursday’s inactive Asian session. That said, the major currency pair takes rounds to 1.0450-40 at the latest.

Even if the quote manages to ignore the oversold RSI and drops further, upward slopping trend lines from May 13, around 1.0420 and 1.0400, will challenge the additional declines.

It should be noted that the 1.0380 and the yearly bottom surrounding 1.0350 are extra filters to the south that can test the EUR/USD bears.

Alternatively, a six-week-old horizontal area between 1.0460 and 1.0470 guards the quote’s immediate recovery.

Following that, a downward sloping resistance line from June 28, near 1.0500 will be probing the EUR/USD bulls.

In a case where the pair rises past 1.0500, a confluence of the 50-SMA and 100-SMA, near 1.0535, will precede the 200-SMA and the weekly top, respectively around 1.0600 and 1.0615, to allow sellers to take last chances.

Overall, EUR/USD remains on the bear’s radar even if the short-term downside appears limited.

EUR/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited weakness expected

 

00:35
AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Symmetrical triangle advocates a volatility squeeze
  • The risk barometer will remain sideways on symmetrical triangle formation.
  • Investors should brace for a volatility contraction, which will be followed by an expansion in the same.
  • A (40.00-60.00) range oscillation by the RSI (14) adds to the consolidation filters.

The AUD/JPY pair is displaying back and forth moves in a narrow range of 93.80-94.01 in the Asian session. Earlier, the cross witnessed a minor rebound after hitting 93.50 on Wednesday.

On a four-hour scale, the risk barometer is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle pattern that indicates a squeeze in the volatility, which is followed by a breakout in the same. The upward sloping trendline of the above-mentioned chart pattern is placed from June 23 low at 92.65 while the downward sloping trendline is plotted from June 21 high at 95.33.

The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 93.95 is overlapping the asset prices, which signals an ongoing consolidation in the asset.

Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range, which signals the unavailability of any potential trigger and eventually volume in the counter.

A decisive break above Tuesday’s high at 94.72 will trigger the symmetrical triangle breakout and will activate aussie bulls for an upside towards June 21 high at 95.33, followed by June 7 high at 96.15.

Alternatively, the yen bulls could gain control if the asset drops below Wednesday’s low at 93.47. An occurrence of the same will drag the asset towards Monday and June 14 low at 92.98 and 92.43 respectively.

AUD/JPY four-hour chart

 

00:30
Stocks. Daily history for Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Index Change, points Closed Change, %
NIKKEI 225 -244.87 26804.6 -0.91
Hang Seng -422.08 21996.89 -1.88
KOSPI -44.1 2377.99 -1.82
ASX 200 -63.4 6700.2 -0.94
FTSE 100 -11.08 7312.32 -0.15
DAX -228.47 13003.35 -1.73
CAC 40 -54.54 6031.48 -0.9
Dow Jones 82.32 31029.31 0.27
S&P 500 -2.72 3818.83 -0.07
NASDAQ Composite -3.65 11177.89 -0.03
00:24
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stays on the way to $1,807 support ahead of US PCE inflation
  • Gold fades bounce off six-week-old support line amid recession fears.
  • Powell repeats the latest hawkish commitments to keep the USD firmer.
  • China’s official PMIs, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be crucial for immediate directions.

Gold Price (XAU/USD) struggles to defend the previous day’s bounce off short-term key support during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the yellow metal remains indecisive around $1,818 by the press time.

The yellow metal dropped to the lowest levels in two weeks the previous day after the key central bankers remained firm in their determination to battle the inflation woes, even at the cost of short-term economic slowdown.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell mostly repeated his latest pledge to battle inflation with readiness to announce another 0.75% rate hike if needed. The Fed Boss also praised the US economic strength and helped the US dollar to remain firmer. ECB President Christine Lagarde, on the other hand, signaled chances of a heavier rate increase in September while also expecting positive growth rates. Further, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey raised concerns about real income shock.

Talking about data, the final readings of the Q1 US Gross Domestic Product Annualized dropped to -1.6% versus the initial forecasts of -1.5%. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices, on the other hand, rose more than 7.0% expected and prior readings to 7.1% during the stated period.

In addition to the hawkish central banks and mixed US data, geopolitical and trade-linked fears surrounding Russia and China also weighed on the sentiment, as well as on the Gold Price.

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed mixed and the US Treasury yields dropped for the second day. It’s worth noting that the S&P 500 Futures remain downbeat and the US bond coupons also stay pressured by the press time.

Looking forward, XAU/USD traders will pay attention to China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI for June for immediate directions. Following that, the Fed’s preferred version of inflation, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, for May, expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.3% MoM, will also be important to watch.

Technical analysis

Gold trades sustainably below the 10-DMA and a nine-day-old resistance line. Given the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI, the prices are likely to decline further.

However, an upward sloping support line from May 16 restricts the immediate downside near $1,815, a break o which could quickly fetch the XAU/USD towards six-week-old horizontal support near $1,807.

Following that, a south-run towards the $1,800 threshold and then to the yearly low near $1,786 can’t be ruled out.

Alternatively, 10-DMA and the aforementioned immediate trend line resistance, respectively near $1,827 and $1,832, could restrict gold price recovery.

It’s worth noting that the 50-DMA level of $1,850 holds the key to the XAU/USD bull’s entry.

Gold: Daily chart

Trend: Further downside expected

 

00:15
Currencies. Daily history for Wednesday, June 29, 2022
Pare Closed Change, %
AUDUSD 0.68773 -0.42
EURJPY 142.582 -0.46
EURUSD 1.04398 -0.78
GBPJPY 165.502 -0.21
GBPUSD 1.21208 -0.51
NZDUSD 0.62199 -0.3
USDCAD 1.28929 0.17
USDCHF 0.95448 -0.26
USDJPY 136.553 0.31

TIN TỨC THỊ TRƯỜNG NGOẠI HỐI

CURRENCY MARKET DEFINITION
The concept of currency market has several definitions:

  • Currency market is the sphere of economic relations that are manifested in the purchase and sale of currency values (foreign currency, securities in foreign currency), as well as operations related to the investment of capital in foreign currency;
  • Currency market is a financial center where currency purchase and sale transactions based on supply and demand for them are concentrated;
  • Curency market is a whole of authorized banks, investment companies, brokerages, exchanges, and foreign banks that perform foreign exchange operations.
  • Currency market is a whole of communications systems that link banks in different countries that conduct international currency transactions.

Simply put, currency market is the market where currency transactions are made, that is, the currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of another country at a certain exchange rate. The exchange rate is the relative price of currencies of two countries or the currency of one country expressed in another country's monetary units.

Currency market is part of the global financial market, where many operations related to the global movement of capital take place.

TYPES OF MARKETS. RUSSIAN AND INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY MARKETS
There are international and domestic currency markets.

Domestic currency market — is a market within a single country.

The international currency market — is a global market that covers currency markets of all countries in the world. It does not have a specific site where trading is carried out. All operations within it are carried out through a system of cable and satellite channels that link the world's regional currency markets. Regional markets today include the Asian (with centers in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Melbourne), the European (London, Frankfurt am Main, and Zurich), and the American (New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles) markets.

Currency trading on the international currency market is carried out on the basis of market exchange rates, which are set on the basis of supply and demand in the market and under the influence of various macroeconomic data. Forex is the international currency market.

Currency markets can also be divided into exchange and over-the-counter markets. Exchange currency market is an organized market where trading is carried out through an exchange—a special company that sets trading rules and provides all the conditions for organizing trading under these rules.

Over-the-counter currency market — is a market where there are no certain trading rules, and purchase and sale operations are not linked to a specific place of trade, as opposed to the case of an exchange.

As a rule, an over-the-counter currency market is organized by special companies that provide services for the purchase and sale of currencies, which may or may not be members of the currency exchange. Trading operations in this market are now carried out mainly via the Internet.

The over-the-counter currency market is much larger than the exchange market in terms of trading volume. The Forex international over-the-counter currency market is considered the most liquid in the world. It operates around the clock in all financial centers of the world (from New York to Tokyo).

CURRENCY MARKET FUNCTIONS
Currency market— is the most important platform for ensuring the normal course of all global economic processes.

The main macroeconomic functions of the currency market are:

  • creating conditions for the subjects of foreign exchange relations to make timely international current and capital payments and thereby promoting the development of foreign trade;
  • providing conditions and mechanisms for the implementation of monetary and economic policy of the state;
  • diversifying foreign exchange reserves;
  • forming the exchange rate under the influence of supply and demand;

NEWS IMPACT
Various currencies are the main trading tool in the currency market. Exchange rates are formed under the influence of supply and demand in the market.

In addition to that, currency rates are influenced by many fundamental factors related to the global economic situation, events in national economies, and political decisions.

News about these factors can be found in various sources:

  • Reports showing a country´s level of economic development.

The more stable an economy is developing, the more stable its currency is. Accordingly, it is possible to predict how the currency will behave in the near future, based on statistical data published in official sources of countries with a certain regularity.
This data includes:

  • GDP
  • unemployment;
  • return on equity;
  • consumer price index;
  • industrial price index;
  • propensity to consume;
  • salaries outside of the agricultural sector;
  • residential construction, etc.

Interest rate level, set by national authorities regulating credit policy, is an equally important indicator. In the European Union, this is ECB–the European Central Bank, in the US, this is the Federal Reserve System, in Japan—the Bank of Japan, in the UK—the Bank of England, in Switzerland—the Swiss national Bank, etc.

The interest rate level is determined at meetings of the national central bank. Then, the decision on the rate is published in official sources. If the central bank of a country reduces the interest rate, the money supply in the country increases, and the national currency depreciates against other world currencies. If the interest rate increases, the national currency will strengthen.

  • Speeches of country leaders, leading economists and analysts.

A speech or even a separate statement by a country's leader can reverse a trend. Speeches on these topics may change the currency exchange rate:

  • analysis of the situation on the currency market;
  • changes in monetary or economic policy;
  • adoption of a budget policy;
  • forecasts of the economic situation, etc.

All this news is published in various sources. Major international news is more or less easy to find in Russian, but news related to the domestic economic policy and the economy of foreign countries is much less common in the Russian press. Mostly, such news is published by the national media and in the language of the country where the news is published.

It is very difficult for one person to follow all the news at once, and they are likely to miss some important event that can turn the whole situation on the market upside down. Guided by our main principle—to create the best trading conditions for our customers—we try to select the most important news from all over the world and publish them on our website.

The TeleTRADE Department of Analytics monitors news on most national and international news sources on a daily basis and identifies those that can potentially affect exchange rates. These are the main news items that are included in our news feed.

In addition, all our clients have free access to the Dow Jones news feed. This is a joint project of Dow Jones Newswires, the world's largest news agency, and the leading Russian news agency Prime-TASS. The news feed is created specifically for currency traders and those who are interested in getting information about the world's currency markets.

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