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Market Trading News and Research from 15 October 2024
Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, October 15:
Following a quiet start to the week, the US Dollar (USD) gathered strength and managed to build on the previous week's gains, with the USD Index reaching its highest level since early August above 103.00 on Monday. The US economic calendar will not offer any high-tier data releases on Tuesday. Eurostat will publish Industrial Production data for August and Germany's ZEW economic research institute will release October sentiment data for the Eurozone and Germany. Finally, Statistics Canada will release September Consumer Price Index figures later in the American session. In the second half of the day, several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to deliver speeches.
US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.74% | 0.28% | 0.78% | 1.38% | 0.69% | 0.77% | 0.92% | |
| EUR | -0.74% | -0.46% | 0.03% | 0.64% | -0.05% | 0.00% | 0.17% | |
| GBP | -0.28% | 0.46% | 0.49% | 1.09% | 0.42% | 0.47% | 0.64% | |
| JPY | -0.78% | -0.03% | -0.49% | 0.72% | -0.08% | -0.03% | 0.16% | |
| CAD | -1.38% | -0.64% | -1.09% | -0.72% | -0.68% | -0.60% | -0.45% | |
| AUD | -0.69% | 0.05% | -0.42% | 0.08% | 0.68% | 0.06% | 0.23% | |
| NZD | -0.77% | -0.01% | -0.47% | 0.03% | 0.60% | -0.06% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | -0.92% | -0.17% | -0.64% | -0.16% | 0.45% | -0.23% | -0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The data from Japan showed on Tuesday that Industrial Production contracted by 3.3% on a monthly basis in August, matching the market expectation. Meanwhile, Kyodo News Agency reported that Prime Minister Shigeru Isihiba said that his government aims to compile a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, projected to exceed last year's 13.1 trillion yen ($87.6 billion). After posting small gains on Monday, USD/JPY edges lower early Tuesday and trades below 149.50.
EUR/USD turned south in the American session on Monday and dropped below 1.0900 for the first time in over two months. The pair struggles to hold its ground in the European morning and stays below this level.
USD/CAD extended its winning streak into a ninth consecutive trading day on Monday. Ahead of the Canadian inflation report, the pair clings to small daily gains slightly above 1.3800 early Tuesday.
The UK's Office for National Statistics announced on Tuesday that the ILO Unemployment Rate eased to 4.0% in the three months to August, following July’s 4.1% reading. Additional details of the report showed the Employment Change data for August arrived at 373K, compared to 265k reported in July. Furthermore, Average Earnings excluding Bonus in the UK rose 4.9% 3M YoY in August versus a 5.1% growth seen in July. GBP/USD showed no immediate reaction to these figures and was last seen moving sideways at around 1.3050.
Gold failed to make a decisive move in either direction on Monday and closed the day virtually unchanged. XAU/USD extends its sideways grind near $2,650 in the European morning.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
- GBP/USD remains subdued after the release of the mixed UK employment data on Tuesday.
- The UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Aug) eased to 4.0%, down from July’s 4.1% reading.
- Fed’s Kashkari reiterated the central bank’s data-dependent approach, highlighting the ongoing easing of inflationary pressures alongside a strong labor market.
GBP/USD edges lower after registering gains in the previous two sessions, trading around 1.3040 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The pair remains subdued following the mixed employment data release from the United Kingdom (UK).
The UK ILO Unemployment Rate eased to 4.0% in the three months leading up to August, down from July’s 4.1% reading and below the market forecast of 4.1%. Employment Change for August showed an increase of 373,000, up from 265,000 in July. Meanwhile, Average Earnings excluding Bonuses rose by 4.9% year-on-year in the three months to August, in line with expectations, though slightly lower than the 5.1% growth recorded in July.
The US Dollar (USD) gains support from increasing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will avoid aggressive interest rate cuts, following a strong jobs report and concerns of sticky US inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 88.2% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with no anticipation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
On Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari reaffirmed the Fed's data-dependent approach. Kashkari reiterated familiar Fed policymaker views on the strength of the US economy, noting continued easing of inflationary pressures and a robust labor market, despite a recent uptick in the overall unemployment rate, per Reuters.
Economic Indicator
ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)
The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the UK Office for National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate goes up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market. As a result, a rise leads to a weakening of the UK economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Read more.Last release: Tue Oct 15, 2024 06:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 4%
Consensus: 4.1%
Previous: 4.1%
Source: Office for National Statistics
The Unemployment Rate is the broadest indicator of Britain’s labor market. The figure is highlighted by the broad media, beyond the financial sector, giving the publication a more significant impact despite its late publication. It is released around six weeks after the month ends. While the Bank of England is tasked with maintaining price stability, there is a substantial inverse correlation between unemployment and inflation. A higher than expected figure tends to be GBP-bearish.
- The UK Unemployment Rate eases to 4.0% in three months to August.
- The Claimant Count Change for Britain stood at 27.9K in September.
- GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3050 after mixed UK employment data.
The United Kingdom’s (UK) ILO Unemployment Rate eased to 4.0% in the three months to August, following July’s 4.1% reading, the data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday. The market forecast was 4.1% in the reported period.
Additional details of the report showed that the number of people claiming jobless benefits increased by 27.9K in September, compared with a gain of 23.7K in August, missing the expected 20.2K print.
The Employment Change data for August arrived at 373K, compared to 265k reported in July.
Meanwhile, Average Earnings excluding Bonus in the UK rose 4.9% 3M YoY in August versus a 5.1% growth seen in July. The reading aligned with the expectations of a 4.9% acceleration.
Another measure of wage inflation, Average Earnings including Bonus also increased by 3.8% in the same period after a 4.0% growth seen in the quarter through July. The market expectation was for +3.8%.
GBP/USD reaction to the UK employment report
GBP/USD keeps its range near 1.3050 in reaction to the mixed UK employment data. The pair is trading 0.14% lower on the day at 1.3040, as of writing.
British Pound PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.19% | 0.14% | -0.13% | 0.10% | 0.25% | 0.30% | -0.04% | |
| EUR | -0.19% | -0.05% | -0.34% | -0.11% | 0.07% | 0.10% | -0.23% | |
| GBP | -0.14% | 0.05% | -0.27% | -0.04% | 0.12% | 0.15% | -0.11% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | 0.34% | 0.27% | 0.24% | 0.38% | 0.43% | 0.14% | |
| CAD | -0.10% | 0.11% | 0.04% | -0.24% | 0.14% | 0.21% | -0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.25% | -0.07% | -0.12% | -0.38% | -0.14% | 0.05% | -0.23% | |
| NZD | -0.30% | -0.10% | -0.15% | -0.43% | -0.21% | -0.05% | -0.28% | |
| CHF | 0.04% | 0.23% | 0.11% | -0.14% | 0.07% | 0.23% | 0.28% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
FX option expiries for Oct 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below.
EUR/USD: EUR amounts
- 1.0850 825m
- 1.1000 3.3b
- 1.1025 654m
GBP/USD: GBP amounts
- 1.3000 492m
USD/JPY: USD amounts
- 149.00 568m
- 149.90 536m
USD/CHF: USD amounts
- 0.8390 920m
- 0.8650 452m
AUD/USD: AUD amounts
- 0.6675 2.7b
- 0.6730 787m
- 0.6775 2b
- 0.6800 1.9b
USD/CAD: USD amounts
- 1.3610 1.2b
- 1.3705 433m
NZD/USD: NZD amounts
- 0.5920 540m
- 0.6100 722m
EUR/GBP: EUR amounts
- 0.8400 590m
- NZD/USD edges lower as the US Dollar gains support from the fading likelihood of further bumper rate cuts by the Fed.
- Fed’s Kashkari reiterated the central bank’s data-dependent approach, highlighting the ongoing easing of inflationary pressures alongside a strong labor market.
- New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index is anticipated to return to the central bank's 1-3% target range for the September quarter.
NZD/USD halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 0.6080 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. This downside could be attributed to the stronger US Dollar (USD), which gains support from fading expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement aggressive interest rate cuts following a strong jobs report and concerns about sticky US inflation.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six other major peers, extends its winning streak for the sixth consecutive day on Tuesday. The DXY trades around 103.30 with 2-year and 10-year standing at 3.96% and 4.09%, respectively, at the time of writing.
On Monday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari reaffirmed the Fed's data-dependent approach. Kashkari reiterated familiar Fed policymaker views on the strength of the US economy, noting continued easing of inflationary pressures and a robust labor market, despite a recent uptick in the overall unemployment rate, per Reuters.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) weakened following Monday’s disappointing trade balance data from China, New Zealand's largest trading partner. Additionally, despite the announcement of China’s fiscal stimulus plan over the weekend, the Kiwi Dollar did not gain traction, as investors remained uncertain about the extent of the package.
China's trade surplus narrowed in September, with the Trade Balance recorded at 81.7 billion, falling short of the 89.8 billion expected and down from the previous 91.02 billion. Exports increased by 2.4% year-over-year, significantly lower than the anticipated 6.0% and down from 8.7% in the prior period. Meanwhile, Imports grew by 0.3%, below the expected 0.9% and the previous increase of 0.5%.
Investors are likely anticipating the release of New Zealand's third-quarter inflation data on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to fall back within the central bank's 1-3% target range, decreasing to 2.2% year-over-year for the September quarter from the previous 3.3% reading.
The New Zealand Dollar is under downward pressure as markets anticipate an 80% likelihood that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will execute another half-point rate cut at its final meeting of the year in November.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
- The Indian Rupee declines due to rising risk aversion.
- Lower crude Oil prices may ease downward pressure on the INR.
- The US Dollar gains ground due to the fading likelihood of further bumper rate cuts by the Fed.
The Indian Rupee (INR) edges lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. However, the INR may strengthen due to anticipated foreign fund inflows, as the Indian stock market may track the upward trend of its Asian peers, with traders reacting to a record closing on Wall Street.
The USD/INR pair may weaken due to declining Oil prices, as India is the world's third-largest Oil importer, and Oil constitutes a significant portion of the country's import expenditures. Crude Oil prices are experiencing downward pressure following a media report indicating that Israel is inclined to avoid targeting Iranian Oil facilities, which has alleviated concerns about potential supply disruptions.
On Monday, the Indian Rupee received downward pressure as Foreign institutional investors sold a net total of 37.32 billion rupees ($444 million) in stocks, marking their eleventh consecutive session of net selling. In contrast, domestic investors net purchased shares valued at 22.78 billion rupees, per Reuters.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee loses ground due to rising risk aversion
- The USD/INR pair hovers around 84.00, close to its highest level, as the US Dollar continues to appreciate due to the fading likelihood of further aggressive interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 83.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with no anticipation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
- The Washington Post reported on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the United States (US) that Israel plans to focus on Iranian military targets rather than nuclear or Oil infrastructure.
- Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari reassured markets late on Monday by reaffirming the Fed's data-dependent approach. Kashkari reiterated familiar Fed policymaker views on the strength of the US economy, noting continued easing of inflationary pressures and a robust labor market, despite a recent uptick in the overall unemployment rate, per Reuters.
- The risk-sensitive INR faces challenges from safe-haven flows amid escalating tensions in the Middle East that have sparked concerns of a broader regional conflict. According to CNN, at least four Israeli soldiers were killed, and over 60 people were injured in a drone attack in north-central Israel on Sunday.
- India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 5.49% year-over-year in September, up from 3.65% in the previous month, significantly surpassing market expectations of 5.0%. This marks the highest inflation rate recorded since the beginning of the year, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's target of 4%, after dipping below this threshold in the first two months of the September quarter.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR remains above 84.00, close to the highest level
The USD/INR pair trades around 84.00 on Tuesday. Analysis of the daily chart shows that the USD/INR pair is positioned within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a bullish bias. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, confirming the ongoing bullish sentiment for the pair.
In terms of resistance, the USD/INR pair could find a barrier around its all-time high of 84.14, recorded on August 5. A break above this level could support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 84.30 level.
On the downside, the immediate support appears at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around the psychological level of 84.00 followed by the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 83.97 level.
USD/INR: Daily Chart
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.
- EUR/USD attracts sellers for the second successive day amid a bullish USD.
- Bets for smaller Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks underpin the Greenback.
- Bears might refrain from placing fresh bets ahead of the ECB on Thursday.
The EUR/USD pair drifts lower for the second straight day on Tuesday and drops to the 1.0890 area in the last hour, back closer to its lowest level since August 8 touched the previous day. Bearish traders, however, need to wait for a break below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) before placing fresh bets ahead of the key central bank event risk.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Thursday and is expected to cut interest rates again for the third time this easing cycle amid mounting concerns over sluggish growth. Furthermore, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the ECB's 2% target for the first time since 2021 and backs the case for further policy easing. This, in turn, undermines the shared currency, which, along with a bullish US Dollar (USD), turns out to be a key factor weighing on the EUR/USD pair.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, stands tall near a two-month top amid firming expectations for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In fact, the markets have now fully priced out the possibility of another oversized Fed rate cut in November, which keeps the US Treasury bond yields elevated. Moreover, geopolitical risks benefit the safe-haven buck and support prospects for a further depreciating move for the EUR/USD pair.
Traders now look forward to Tuesday's economic docket – featuring the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and Eurozone Industrial Production figures. Later during the North American session, the Empire State Manufacturing Index and speeches by influential FOMC members will drive the USD demand, which, in turn, should provide short-term impetus to the EUR/USD pair.
Economic Indicator
ECB Monetary Policy Statement
At each of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) eight governing council meetings, the ECB releases a short statement explaining its monetary policy decision, in light of its goal of meeting its inflation target. The statement may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for EUR, whereas a dovish view is considered bearish.
Read more.Next release: Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:15
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: European Central Bank
Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 7,144.44 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 7,159.09 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 83,331.34 per tola from INR 83,502.19 per tola a day earlier.
| Unit measure | Gold Price in INR |
|---|---|
| 1 Gram | 7,144.44 |
| 10 Grams | 71,444.39 |
| Tola | 83,331.34 |
| Troy Ounce | 222,217.10 |
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
- USD/CAD attracts buyers for the tenth straight day and draws support from a combination of factors.
- Bets for smaller Fed rate cuts assist the USD to preserve its recent strong gains to a two-month high.
- Weaker Oil prices undermine the Loonie and act as a tailwind for the pair ahead of the Canadian CPI.
The USD/CAD pair trades near its highest level since August 6 during the Asian session on Tuesday, with bulls making a fresh attempt to build on the momentum beyond the 1.3800 round-figure mark.
The US Dollar (USD) stands tall near a two-month high amid expectations for a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and bets for a regular 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in November. This assists the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond to hold steady above the 4% mark and continues to offer some support to the buck, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor pushing the USD/CAD pair higher for the tenth straight day.
Meanwhile, a report on Monday suggested that Israel will not attack Iran’s oil and nuclear facilities. Moreover, a fall in China's oil imports for the fifth straight month raised concerns about weak demand in the world's top importer. Adding to this, OPEC lowered its 2024 and 2025 global oil demand forecasts. This leads to a further decline in Crude Oil prices, which undermines the commodity-linked Loonie and lends additional support to the USD/CAD pair.
The aforementioned factors, to a larger extent, overshadow Friday's upbeat Canadian jobs data, which forced investors to pare bets for a larger rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Traders now look forward to the release of the latest Canadian consumer inflation figures, due later during the North American session. This, along with the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Fedspeak, will influence the USD and provide some impetus to the USD/CAD pair.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.Next release: Tue Oct 15, 2024 12:30
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 1.8%
Previous: 2%
Source: Statistics Canada
Kyodo News Agency carried a report on Tuesday, citing Japan’s Prime Minister (PM) Shigeru Isihiba, as saying that his government aims to compile a supplementary budget for the current fiscal year, projected to exceed last year's 13.1 trillion yen ($87.6 billion).
The extra budget is set to fund an economic package, which could cushion the blow to households from rising living costs, Kyodo reported.
Market reaction
At the time of writing, USD/JPY is losing 0.07% on the day to trade near 149.65, little moved by these headlines.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
- Gold price attracts some dip-buyers and stalls its decline from over a one-week top set on Monday.
- Geopolitical risks drive some haven flows, though a bullish USD might cap gains for the commodity.
- Signs of a slowdown in China – the biggest bullion consumer – could further weigh on the XAU/USD.
Gold price (XAU/USD) witnessed an intraday pullback from over a one-week high touched on Monday and finally settled in the red, snapping a two-day winning streak amid broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength. Investors have priced out the possibility of another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. This kept the US Treasury bond yields elevated, which pushed the buck to over a two-month top and drove flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.
Adding to this, the disappointment over China's fiscal stimulus and weak inflation figures released over the weekend did little to evoke investors' confidence. This turned out to be another factor that undermined the Gold price and contributed to the decline. That said, geopolitical risks stemming from the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East assisted the safe-haven precious metal to stall its intraday slide and hold steady above the $2,640 level during the Asian session on Tuesday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price draws support from geopolitical risks, smaller Fed rate cut bets to cap gains
- The US Dollar shot to its highest level since August 8 on Monday amid growing acceptance of a less aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve and bets for a regular 25 basis points interest rate cut in November.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that the monetary policy is still restrictive and suggested that further modest interest rate cuts could be appropriate as the job market remains strong.
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that the economy is on solid footing, may not be slowing as much as desired, and that the central bank should proceed with more caution on rate cuts than at the September meeting.
- The lack of numerical details for China's fiscal stimulus, along with signs of economic softness in the biggest bullion consumer, prompted some intraday selling around the Gold price on the first day of a new week.
- Israel vowed a forceful response to Hezbollah’s drone attack on its army base on Sunday, which killed four soldiers and severely wounded seven others, raising the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions.
- This comes amid growing concern that Israel may mount an offensive against Iranian assets and a broader regional conflict in the Middle East, which offers some support to the safe-haven precious metal.
- Traders now look to the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which, along with Fedspeak, should produce short-term trading opportunities around the XAU/USD later during the North American session.
Technical Outlook: Gold price could aim to surpass the all-time peak touched in September and conquer the $2,700 mark
From a technical perspective, the overnight swing high, around the $2,666-2,667 region, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift the Gold price back towards the all-time peak, around the $2,685-2,686 region touched in September. This is closely followed by the $2,700 round-figure mark, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for an extension of a well-established multi-month-old uptrend.
On the flip side, weakness below the $2,632-2,630 immediate support is likely to attract some buyers and remain limited near the $2,600 round-figure mark. Failure to defend the said handle will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the $2,560 zone. The corrective slide could extend further towards the $2,535-2,530 region en route to the $2,500 psychological mark.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
- WTI depreciates as Israel is willing to refrain from targeting Iranian oil facilities.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the US that Israel plans to attack Iranian military targets rather than nuclear or Oil infrastructure.
- OPEC Monthly Market Report revised down its global Oil demand growth outlook for 2024 and 2025.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price continues its decline for the third successive session, trading around $71.10 per barrel during Tuesday’s Asian hours. Crude Oil prices are facing downward pressure following a media report suggesting that Israel is willing to refrain from targeting Iranian oil facilities, easing concerns about potential supply disruptions.
The Washington Post reported on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed the United States (US) that Israel plans to focus on Iranian military targets rather than nuclear or Oil infrastructure. Last week, Oil prices had gained support as investors feared supply risks after Israel indicated plans to retaliate against a missile attack from Iran.
On Monday, Crude Oil prices dropped nearly 5% following the release of the OPEC Monthly Market Report, which revised its global Oil demand growth outlook for 2024 and 2025. OPEC also cut its forecast for China's crude oil demand growth for the third consecutive month in October, citing the growing adoption of electric vehicles and sluggish economic growth as key factors.
The Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) suggests China's crude Oil demand will expand by 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2024. This estimate is down from the 650,000 bpd gain forecast in September and is also 180,000 bpd below the rise of 760,000 bpd OPEC was predicting in July for the world's biggest oil importer.
Oil market sentiment has turned pessimistic due to China's increasing deflationary pressures, which have raised concerns about slowing economic growth. Despite recent stimulus plans, uncertainty surrounding the size of the package has failed to alleviate fears of downside risks to China's economic outlook, further dampening traders' confidence.
Saudi Arabia could ramp up production amid declining cohesion among OPEC+ members. Despite voluntary production cuts, OPEC+ producers have been overproducing by as much as 800,000 barrels per day. The Saudi oil minister cautioned that prices could fall to $50 per barrel if member countries do not adhere to the agreed-upon cuts.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
| Raw materials | Closed | Change, % |
|---|---|---|
| Silver | 31.163 | 0.36 |
| Gold | 264.777 | -0.08 |
| Palladium | 1029.01 | -1.72 |
- The Australian Dollar depreciated as China's fiscal stimulus plan failed to boost the market sentiment.
- The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index remained steady at 83.4 this week.
- The US Dollar receives support from the fading likelihood of further bumper rate cuts by the Fed.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, weighed down by weak trade balance data from China, Australia's largest trading partner, released on Monday. Furthermore, China's fiscal stimulus plan, announced over the weekend, failed to boost the Aussie Dollar, as investors were left uncertain about the scale of the package.
The Australian weekly survey of Consumer Confidence showed little movement, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index remaining steady at 83.4 this week. Despite the unchanged figure, the longer-term trend shows that Consumer Confidence has been below the 85.0 mark for a record 89 consecutive weeks. The current reading is 1.3 points higher than the 2024 weekly average of 82.1.
The US Dollar (USD) gains support from increasing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will avoid aggressive interest rate cuts. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 83.6% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with no anticipation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar remains subdued over economic woes in China
- Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari reassured markets late on Monday by reaffirming the Fed's data-dependent approach. Kashkari reiterated familiar Fed policymaker views on the strength of the US economy, noting continued easing of inflationary pressures and a robust labor market, despite a recent uptick in the overall unemployment rate, per Reuters.
- The AUD might have received downward pressure from a detailed note from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia indicating expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will implement a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of 2024. The report suggested that a stronger disinflationary trend than the RBA anticipates is essential for the Board to consider easing policy within this calendar year.
- The risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair might have received downward pressure due to escalating tensions in the Middle East that have sparked concerns of a broader regional conflict. According to CNN, at least four Israeli soldiers were killed, and over 60 people were injured in a drone attack in north-central Israel on Sunday.
- China's military initiated drills in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan on Monday. A spokesperson for the US Department of State expressed serious concern regarding the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) military actions. In response, Taiwan's Defense Ministry stated, “We will not escalate conflict in our response.”
- The National Bureau of Statistics of China reported that the country's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0% in September, down from August's 0.4% increase. The annual inflation rate rose by 0.4%, falling short of the anticipated 0.6%. Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, a larger drop than the previous decline of 1.8% and exceeding expectations of a 2.5% decrease.
- On Saturday, the National People’s Congress expressed an optimistic outlook following a briefing from China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF). The MoF emphasized key priorities focused on stabilizing the property market and tackling local government debt issues. The ministry indicated that special bonds would be issued to support both bank recapitalization and efforts to stabilize the real estate sector.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee spoke to Bloomberg, commending the progress on inflation and the labor market. Goolsbee noted that despite the positive jobs report for September, there are no indications of overheating in the economy.
- Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the Minutes from its September monetary policy meeting, suggesting that board members examined potential scenarios for both lowering and raising interest rates in the future. The discussion indicated that future financial conditions may need to be either tighter or looser than current levels to meet the Board's objectives.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar remains below 0.6750 within the descending channel
The AUD/USD pair hovers around 0.6730 on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair testing the upper boundary of a descending channel pattern. A successful breakout above this level could signal a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, indicating that bearish momentum remains.
Suppose the AUD/USD pair breaks above the descending channel. In that case, it may encounter initial resistance at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around the 0.6758 level, followed by the key psychological resistance at 0.6800.
On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may target the lower boundary of the descending channel near the 0.6630 level, with further support at its eight-week low of 0.6622, last recorded on September 11.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.21% | 0.01% | -0.05% | 0.12% | -0.17% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.23% | -0.02% | -0.05% | 0.10% | -0.18% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | 0.06% | -0.16% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.16% | -0.06% | |
| JPY | 0.21% | 0.23% | 0.16% | 0.21% | 0.15% | 0.31% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.01% | 0.02% | -0.05% | -0.21% | -0.06% | 0.11% | -0.12% | |
| AUD | 0.05% | 0.05% | -0.01% | -0.15% | 0.06% | 0.16% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | -0.12% | -0.10% | -0.16% | -0.31% | -0.11% | -0.16% | -0.23% | |
| CHF | 0.17% | 0.18% | 0.06% | -0.07% | 0.12% | 0.07% | 0.23% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
- The Japanese Yen recovers a bit against the USD, from over a two-month low set on Monday.
- The BoJ rate-hike uncertainty and the upbeat market mood to cap gains for the safe-haven JPY.
- Bets for smaller interest rate cuts by the Fed underpin the USD and favor the USD/JPY bulls.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses a part of the previous day's losses to the 150.00 psychological mark, or the lowest level since early August. Any meaningful upside for the JPY, however, still seems elusive in the wake of the uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate-hike plans. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment might contribute to capping the safe-haven JPY.
Meanwhile, traders no longer expect another outsized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November, which had been a key factor behind the recent upswing in the US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, keeps the US Dollar (USD) well supported near a two-month peak and could further undermine the low-yielding JPY. Hence, any subsequent slide in the USD/JPY pair might be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Japanese Yen seems vulnerable amid diminishing odds for more BoJ rate hikes in 2024
- Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's recent comments successfully pushed back market expectations for any further interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the near term.
- US equity indices carried forward the upward momentum on Monday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting new record highs amid hopes for solid earnings.
- The US Dollar built on its recent gains registered over the past two weeks or so and shot to its highest level since August 8 amid bets for smaller interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that the recent jobs data shows labor market isn't weakening and the path of policy to be driven by data, the economy's performance.
- Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted the US central bank should proceed with more caution on interest rate cuts than was needed at the September policy meeting.
- According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a greater chance of a regular 25 basis points rate reduction in November and over a 15% probability of a no-cut.
- A quick increase in 10-year US government bond yields over the last few weeks to levels beyond the 4% threshold favors the USD bulls and should cap the low-yielding Japanese Yen.
- Traders now look to the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index for some impetus later during the North American session ahead of speeches by influential FOMC members.
Technical Outlook: USD/JPY bulls retain control near two-month top; move beyond 150.00 psychological mark awaited
From a technical perspective, any further slide is more likely to attract dip-buying near the 149.00 mark. This might help limit the downside for the USD/JPY pair near the 148.55-148.50 region. The latter is likely to act as a key pivotal point, which if broken might prompt aggressive selling and drag spot prices below the 148.00 round figure, towards last week's swing low, around the 147.35-147.30 area.
On the flip side, sustained strength and acceptance above the 150.00 psychological mark will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, the USD/JPY pair might then aim to challenge the August monthly swing high, around the 150.85-150.90 region. Some follow-through buying beyond the 151.00 round figure will suggest that spot prices have bottomed out and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.0830, as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.0723 and 7.0840 Reuters estimates.
| Index | Change, points | Closed | Change, % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | -159.11 | 21092.87 | -0.75 |
| KOSPI | 26.38 | 2623.29 | 1.02 |
| ASX 200 | 38.3 | 8252.8 | 0.47 |
| DAX | 134.46 | 19508.29 | 0.69 |
| CAC 40 | 24.17 | 7602.06 | 0.32 |
| Dow Jones | 201.36 | 43065.22 | 0.47 |
| S&P 500 | 44.82 | 5859.85 | 0.77 |
| NASDAQ Composite | 159.75 | 18502.69 | 0.87 |
| Pare | Closed | Change, % |
|---|---|---|
| AUDUSD | 0.67249 | -0.14 |
| EURJPY | 163.351 | 0.16 |
| EURUSD | 1.09063 | -0.24 |
| GBPJPY | 195.551 | 0.37 |
| GBPUSD | 1.30578 | -0.01 |
| NZDUSD | 0.60946 | 0.03 |
| USDCAD | 1.37939 | 0.17 |
| USDCHF | 0.86246 | 0.57 |
| USDJPY | 149.763 | 0.39 |
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET NEWS
CURRENCY MARKET DEFINITION
The concept of currency market has several definitions:
- Currency market is the sphere of economic relations that are manifested in the purchase and sale of currency values (foreign currency, securities in foreign currency), as well as operations related to the investment of capital in foreign currency;
- Currency market is a financial center where currency purchase and sale transactions based on supply and demand for them are concentrated;
- Curency market is a whole of authorized banks, investment companies, brokerages, exchanges, and foreign banks that perform foreign exchange operations.
- Currency market is a whole of communications systems that link banks in different countries that conduct international currency transactions.
Simply put, currency market is the market where currency transactions are made, that is, the currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of another country at a certain exchange rate. The exchange rate is the relative price of currencies of two countries or the currency of one country expressed in another country's monetary units.
Currency market is part of the global financial market, where many operations related to the global movement of capital take place.
TYPES OF MARKETS. RUSSIAN AND INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY MARKETS
There are international and domestic currency markets.
Domestic currency market — is a market within a single country.
The international currency market — is a global market that covers currency markets of all countries in the world. It does not have a specific site where trading is carried out. All operations within it are carried out through a system of cable and satellite channels that link the world's regional currency markets. Regional markets today include the Asian (with centers in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Melbourne), the European (London, Frankfurt am Main, and Zurich), and the American (New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles) markets.
Currency trading on the international currency market is carried out on the basis of market exchange rates, which are set on the basis of supply and demand in the market and under the influence of various macroeconomic data. Forex is the international currency market.
Currency markets can also be divided into exchange and over-the-counter markets. Exchange currency market is an organized market where trading is carried out through an exchange—a special company that sets trading rules and provides all the conditions for organizing trading under these rules.
Over-the-counter currency market — is a market where there are no certain trading rules, and purchase and sale operations are not linked to a specific place of trade, as opposed to the case of an exchange.
As a rule, an over-the-counter currency market is organized by special companies that provide services for the purchase and sale of currencies, which may or may not be members of the currency exchange. Trading operations in this market are now carried out mainly via the Internet.
The over-the-counter currency market is much larger than the exchange market in terms of trading volume. The Forex international over-the-counter currency market is considered the most liquid in the world. It operates around the clock in all financial centers of the world (from New York to Tokyo).
CURRENCY MARKET FUNCTIONS
Currency market— is the most important platform for ensuring the normal course of all global economic processes.
The main macroeconomic functions of the currency market are:
- creating conditions for the subjects of foreign exchange relations to make timely international current and capital payments and thereby promoting the development of foreign trade;
- providing conditions and mechanisms for the implementation of monetary and economic policy of the state;
- diversifying foreign exchange reserves;
- forming the exchange rate under the influence of supply and demand;
NEWS IMPACT
Various currencies are the main trading tool in the currency market. Exchange rates are formed under the influence of supply and demand in the market.
In addition to that, currency rates are influenced by many fundamental factors related to the global economic situation, events in national economies, and political decisions.
News about these factors can be found in various sources:
- Reports showing a country´s level of economic development.
The more stable an economy is developing, the more stable its currency is. Accordingly, it is possible to predict how the currency will behave in the near future, based on statistical data published in official sources of countries with a certain regularity.
This data includes:
- GDP
- unemployment;
- return on equity;
- consumer price index;
- industrial price index;
- propensity to consume;
- salaries outside of the agricultural sector;
- residential construction, etc.
Interest rate level, set by national authorities regulating credit policy, is an equally important indicator. In the European Union, this is ECB–the European Central Bank, in the US, this is the Federal Reserve System, in Japan—the Bank of Japan, in the UK—the Bank of England, in Switzerland—the Swiss national Bank, etc.
The interest rate level is determined at meetings of the national central bank. Then, the decision on the rate is published in official sources. If the central bank of a country reduces the interest rate, the money supply in the country increases, and the national currency depreciates against other world currencies. If the interest rate increases, the national currency will strengthen.
- Speeches of country leaders, leading economists and analysts.
A speech or even a separate statement by a country's leader can reverse a trend. Speeches on these topics may change the currency exchange rate:
- analysis of the situation on the currency market;
- changes in monetary or economic policy;
- adoption of a budget policy;
- forecasts of the economic situation, etc.
All this news is published in various sources. Major international news is more or less easy to find in Russian, but news related to the domestic economic policy and the economy of foreign countries is much less common in the Russian press. Mostly, such news is published by the national media and in the language of the country where the news is published.
It is very difficult for one person to follow all the news at once, and they are likely to miss some important event that can turn the whole situation on the market upside down. Guided by our main principle—to create the best trading conditions for our customers—we try to select the most important news from all over the world and publish them on our website.
The TeleTRADE Department of Analytics monitors news on most national and international news sources on a daily basis and identifies those that can potentially affect exchange rates. These are the main news items that are included in our news feed.
In addition, all our clients have free access to the Dow Jones news feed. This is a joint project of Dow Jones Newswires, the world's largest news agency, and the leading Russian news agency Prime-TASS. The news feed is created specifically for currency traders and those who are interested in getting information about the world's currency markets.
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