Новости рынков от 9 июня 2006
09.06.2006, 11:19

FOREX: Thursday results.[E]

On Thursday the dollar continued to set gains against the main currencies and climbed monthly high versus yen on fears FED will continue to raise itт borrowing costs.

In recent days Federal Reserve representatives expressed their concern on inflation pressure. That led to new speculations that at the nearest meeting FOMC can lift the interest rate for the 17th time successively.

Inflation is ``bothersome,'' and a greater risk than an economic slowdown, Guynn said yesterday in Duluth, Georgia. Earlier Bernanke spoke that inflation hikes are «unwelcome».

Interest-rate futures now priced in 84% chance of FED rates hike to 5.25% at the nearest FOMC meeting 29 June. Three weeks earlier the similar probability made about 38 %.

Remind that investors reconsidered their sentiment upon USD after speculations on further key rate hike in USA led to drop on commodity and stock markets.

USD also strengthened versus EUR on a clearer data that deferential between EU and US benchmark rates will be reduced this month.

ECB lifted rate to 2.75% today, as expected. That was the third rise since December last year. However press-conference of ECB Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet became most important. There he said todays increase became the reflection of market expectations. He also noted, that inflation control is necessary for stimulation of economic growth. As he said rates in the region remain on a low level, however policy of the Central Bank still "accommodative".

The speech was less aggressive, than was expected and as a result USD growth accelerated.

Yesterday the decision about rates also was accepted by Bank of England. Key rate remained at 4.5%, as broadly expected. Rates were raised in South Korea and Turkey for the last 24 hours.


EUR/USD probed the intermediate resistance $1.2810 and by the American session rebounded in area $1.2750. The rate has overcome support in area $1.2750 and now reached $1.2700 after the market was disappointed with the ECB decision on bringing itтАЩs key rate up on 25 b.p. After Trichet press conference pressure the pressure upon a rate has amplified and as a result the pair lifted to $1.2625 before insignificant recoil. The trade come to the end on a mark $1.2650.


GBP/USD in first half of day remained within the limits of $1.8540/70. Weak data on industrial production became the reason of sharp decrease and testing of the important support $1.8500 (the bottom border of the correctional channel). Taking the given level has strengthened bearish sentiment upon sterling which now has reached bids on $1.8470. The sterling continue itтАЩs fall to $1.8370 after a short support has followed at the beginning of Trichet press conference . After recoil to $1.8540/50 the rate closed session on $1.8530.


USD/JPY strengthened all day. Having opened day in Y113.40 the pair has reached mark Y114.00. Offers have constrained strengthening which before the American session has returned to area Y113.75. During renewal of USD growth the rate has took the resistance on Y114.20 (50 % Y119.38-109.00) and climbed to Y114.70. By the end of the session the pair has decreased in area Y114.10.

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