FOREX: weekly review. [E]

USD closed the week higher against other main currencies. It's possible to say that USD monthly drop got to the end. Dollar was supported on Friday with pare bets before long USA and Britain weekends. Financial markets will be closed for the national holidays.
Weekly USD gains were +0.3% against EUR (to $1.2725); + 0.6% against yen (to Y112.55) and +1.1% against sterling (to $1.8560).
Analysts justify consolidation as necessarily after USD recent sales. But many suppose that weekly appreciation is not an occasion for greater hike.
"USD is still weak while its pace to highs on fears of further strengthening."- say analysts from BNP Paribas. They believe, that EUR bids on Friday in the field of $1.2700 were related to weak sentiment of market players on dollar.
Russia, which currency reserves have essentially increased this year owing to the high prices for oil, has proved real threat for dollar hegemony as has declared intention to increase a share of EUR in the gold and exchange currency reserves. Alexey Kudrin, Russian Minister of Finance said earlier, Russian Сentral Bank will expand the EUR part in it's currency reserve and will make 45% in USD, 45% - Euro, 10% - GBP. At the beginning of May Mr.Kudrin informed Russia is going to make it's rouble more converting closer to 1 July. The pair USD/RUB is now gains ground has tested level Rub26.87 on 12th May after showing December high on Rub29.00.
Analysts BNP Paribas say, that while uncertainty in the market will remain, the pause in the further dollar falling will be prolonged in short-term prospect. However the dollar again can come under pressure as soon as there will be new fears the USA interest rates have reached the peak.
In the meantime, expectations under FED policy this week have appeared under threat after GDP report became worse then forecasts, and price deflator - the inflationary parameter most traced by the central bank, - has reached expectations of analysts.
But Rob Carnell from ING Financial Markets say that "this reports are obvious".
The key data will be only in a months after the next FOMC meeting in June.
Than will be seen further FED monetary policy steps".
The USA Commerce Department said USA GDP in 1Q exceeded expectations. GDP rose 5.3% what is more previous on 4.8% but under forecasted 5.8%.
The separate report has shown growth so-called price deflator on 2.1 % y/y in March against 2.0 % the prior month. Excess by this indicator 2 % level traditionally supports speculations as to continuation of interest rates hike in USA.
Michigan university report gave an advantageous support for USD showing consumer confidence index was overviewed on 79.1 against preliminary value 79.0.
In present time interest-rate futures show traders are priced in a 56% chance the Fed will take its target rate to 5.25% in June. Earlier this month this possibility was 20%.
Pressure upon EUR has been rendered initially by an output of a weak index of business optimism from research institute IFO. According to official data, the index has decreased up to 105.6 with 105.9.
EUR could be supported as ECB and Eurozone representatives will continue to point on growth of inflationary pressure. That time, initially Euro have been recovered after ECB representative Erkki Liikanen announced in Suomen Kuvalehti determine pressure in region as "growing". His comments confirm market expectations, that by the end of year ECB key rate will be elevated at least three times.
USD strengthened against JPY. Yen weakened after government officials doubted deflation end though CPI lift for a sixth straight month. From the beginning of the year JPY has strengthen on 5% having expected the rate will increase on 0.1% by Bank of Japan first time since 2001 that now are equals. Yen weakened earlier after government officials doubted deflation end though CPI lift for a sixth straight month.
First step according to analyst opinion will be made already by Central Bank in July. However there were assumptions, that such step Bank of Japan will undertake not earlier than October. Last week the government of Japan has declared, that the national economy in 1Q has increased for 1.9 %, that above the forecast in 1.1 %.