Forex. Monday - results of the day [M]

In connection with holidays the markets of Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, the Great Britain and a greater part of the Europe on Monday have been closed, that has affected activity of the market. It has not prevented to fall of USD in the beginning of day to a 7-month's minimum against yen and to an annual minimum against euro.
The reason of sales of a rate still are fears of a pause in a 22-month's cycle of increase of interest rates in the USA. These fears have become stronger after pessimistic performance of the chairman of the Federal reserve of Ben Bernanke last week.
However second half of the day became more successful for the American currency. The report on manufacturing ISM has appeared better than forecasts though analysts predicted decrease in an index. It became a trigger for correction in the currency market, however, about any change of sentiments speech does not go yet. Also it is necessary to note growth of the Japanese currency which has added and against EUR. It has been caused by speculations of that the Bank of Japan for the first time since 2000 has come nearer to begin increase of interest rates. We shall remind, that the head of Bank of Japan Toshihiko Fukui on April, 28th has declared that " the central bank does not need to hurry up, and at the same time not necessary to relax, as the risk of a deflation remains ". The economy of Japan in this year will grow 2.4 % if to trust forecasts of analysts which have raised the forecast since October of the last year when growth on 1.8 % was expected.

EUR/USD in the beginning of day traded in a range $1.2610/40. Then growth of a rate has proceeded, therefore the level $1.2690 has been tested. The offers located here have provoked sales to $1.2550. Significant recover has not followed, and the tenders were closed in area of daily low.
GBP/USD in the beginning of the trade remained within the limits of $1.8230/70. Then the rate has sharply raised and has tested resistance on $1.8420. The offers located here have provoked decrease to sale to $1.8200. After that the pound has rolled away to $1.8240 in area where has finished the trade.
USD/JPY in the beginning of session has sharply decreased with Y113.80 in area Y113.00. After that the rate was stabilized in range Y113.05/20. Then decrease has proceeded in area Y112.30. The bids located here have provoked sharp recoil to purchase to Y113.50/60 where day was closed.

The last month the dollar has fallen to 4.3 % against euro and lost 3.5 % in relation to the Japanese yen. In the past year owing to constant increase of the basic rate of refinancing FED the dollar added 14 % against euro currency. The euro becomes stronger on expectations of that process of increase of rates in Europe will outstrip FED. On May, 4th press-conference of the head of ECB of Jean-Claude Trishe takes place in Frankfurt. Analysts predict, that ECB will leave the rate at a level of 2.5 %. In turn, FED in May will raise the rate up to 5 % as observers believe.