FOREX: Thursday results.[M]

After yesterday report on April’s Retail sales in USA the decrease in USD rate continued. As it shows sales grew on 0.5%, what is under +0.6% in March. Retail Sales диаграмма. Sales ex. Auto Retail Sales (ex. auto) диаграмма grew on 0.7%, what isn’t much more then the previous one in +0.6%.
Before data issued the USD showed growth what was a recovery after FOMC gave the market understood that the further increase of rates isn’t finished yet and the USA Treasury did not named China "the currency manipulator ".
Treasury cancelled China from the list of “manipulators” on Wednesday.
«This fact shows that USA officials do not pursue a policy of excessive weakling of dollar”, believes Adrian Foster the currency strategist from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.
« Treasury’s report wasn’t so strict as expected and Federal Reserve left question about the rate politics opened for the next meeting, says Simon Derrick, chef currency strategist from Bank of New York.
Remind that FOMC increased percent rate to 5% Federal Funds 25 years диаграмма Federal Funds 50 years диаграмма and in the accompanying statement told, that in the future additional measures on firming monetary policy can be demanded. " In a whole the application text leaves the possibility of rising rates up to 5.25% on the FOMC meeting in June.
At present time future rate contracts show that probability of rising rates up to 5.25% on the FOMC meeting in June rised to 40%.
At the beginning of previous week such possibility was 32%.
Meanwhile, since December, 2005 ECB has twice raised the basic discount rate up to a current level in 2.5 %. Support of EUR has rendered and published on Thursday report which has testified acceleration of rates of economic growth in the Eurozone up to 0.6 % q/q and 2.0 % y/y in I quarter, that above the previous indicator in +0.3 % q/q and +1.7 % y/y accordingly. At the moment futures contracts price at least three increases of rate by ECB in current year up to 3.25 %.
According to data of the report of Office of national statistics of the Great Britain, industrial outputs has grown in March, 2006 on 0.7 % of m/m and 0.3 % y/y.
As a result the sterling has strengthened the positions both against dollar, and in relation to leading currencies.

EUR/USD after trying to lift to $1.2755 has renewed decrease and as a result has reached $1.2685 before has got support and it was stabilised within the limits of $1.2700/20. After an relise of retail data growth of pair has renewed. As a result the rate has overcome area of the Wednesday maximum and has marked a new annual maximum in area $1.2870. The trades have come to the end on $1.2835.
GBP/USD got a support on $1.8530/40 at the beginning of a day, and then after report on manufacturing has sharply fly to $1.8675, before recoil to $1.8630 occured. In a process of covery of pressure upon USD the GBP reached $1.8850. Rate finished at $1.8820.
USD/JPY In the beginning of day has tested resistance Y111.50 then pressure upon pair became stronger. As a result the rate has overcome a zone of a concentration of bids Y110.80/00 and has reached key support Y110.10 before has returned on Y110.70.

USD losses can grow before the government report on trade balance on Friday< a href=http://www.teletrade.kiev.ua/grafstat.php?gr=25>US Total Trade Balance US Total Trade Balance (last 5 years) It’s predicted that the deficit of trade balance in March will reach a record mark in $67 bill. against $65.7 bill. a months before.
In this case structure problems of USA economy will be in great attention.