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  • 11.07.2024 16:26
    Fed's Daly: One or two rate cuts this year would be more or less the appropriate path

    Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly acknowledged improving inflation figures on Thursday but warned that shelter inflation and labor remain sticking points, and that expectations of three rate cuts may be an overreaction.

    Key highlights

    The economy looks to be on a path where one or two rate cuts this year would be more or less the appropriate path.

    My expectation is that inflation will come down gradually, the labor market is gradually slowing.

    Recent inflation prints are a relief, but progress is bumpy.

    It is likely some policy adjustments will be warranted.

    The labor market has softened but is still solid.

    We are at the point where additional labor market slowing is more likely to result in a rise in unemployment.

    The decline in super-core ex-housing inflation is welcome.

    Shelter prices are coming down, but the lack of supply means the process is slower than it has been in history.

    It's a fairly big signal from the Fed that so many of us are talking about the labor market.

  • 10.07.2024 12:37
    Silver Price Analysis: Forms Triangle or Bull Pennant within a Measured Move
    • Silver is forming a Symmetrical Triangle, or Bull Pennant continuation pattern with bullish implications for price. 
    • It is also probably rising up in the final wave C of a Measured Move price pattern, also with bullish expectations. 
    • MACD is poised to rise higher after crossing the zero-line.

    Silver (XAG/USD) has formed a price pattern after its recent rally, which saw it break out of its falling channel. 

    The price pattern could either be a Symmetrical Triangle (ST) pattern, or perhaps a Bull Pennant continuation pattern; the first has slightly bullish connotations, the second has stronger bullish implications. 

    Silver Daily Chart

    More broadly Silver is also probably in the process of rising up in the final wave C of a three-wave Measured Move (MM), with a final price target substantially higher than the current market level.

    STs do not give a hint of the direction of the breakout but it is usually in the direction of the prior trend. Bull Pennants, however, are bullish and strongly suggest higher prices to come. 

    MMs are like large zig-zags composed of three waves, sometimes labeled A,B and C.  

    As Silver price is currently rising up in wave C it is likely to go higher, either till it reaches the end of wave C or, more conservatively $32.75 ( calculated as the 0.618 extrapolation of wave A). If it reaches the end of C it could rally to $35.00. 

    A break above the top of the ST/Pennant at $31.49 would provide confirmation of the next leg higher. 

    The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator has crossed above the zero line and looks poised to continue higher, with bullish implications for price. 

     

  • 03.07.2024 15:36
    USD/JPY: To intervene or wait? – OCBC

    Higher USD/JPY continues to drum up expectations of intervention though some may be watching if authorities are allowing for further depreciation before stepping in. Spread between implied and realised vol continues to widen. And we observed from history that actual market intervention risks do rise if spread continues to widen, OCBC strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

    Bullish momentum on daily chart

    “In the interim, USD/JPY will look to UST yields, US Dollar (USD) for directional cues. For USD/JPY to turn lower, that would require the USD to turn/Fed to cut or for BoJ to signal an intent to normalise urgently (rate hike or increase pace of balance sheet reduction). None of the above appears to be taking place.”

    “As such, the path of least resistance for USD/JPY may still be to the upside unless intervention takes place. And we shared that intervention is at best a tool to slow pace of JPY depreciation and not to reverse the trend.”

    “USD/JPY was last at 161.44. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is still in overbought conditions. Next resistance at 164, 164.90 levels. Support at 160.20, 158.10 (21 DMA), 156.90 (50 DMA).”

  • 02.07.2024 13:50
    Powell speech: Inflation may get back to 2% late next year or following year

    Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde discuss monetary policy outlook at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra.

    Key quotes from Powell

    "Services inflation is usually stickier."

    "Wage increases are moving back down towards more sustainable levels."

    "Wage increases are still above where they will wind up in equilibrium."

    "The labor market is cooling off."

    "Inflation may get back to 2% late next year or the following year."

    Fed FAQs

    Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

    The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

    In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

    Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

     

  • 26.06.2024 00:10
    RBA's Kent: Not ruling anything in or out for interest rates

    Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent crossed the wires in the last hour, saying that the recent data reinforce the need to be vigilant to upside inflation risks.

    Additional Quotes:

    • Policy contributing to slower growth of demand and lower inflation.
    • Not ruling anything in or out for interest rates.
    • The cash rate is above our range of estimates of the nominal neutral rate.
    • Financial conditions are particularly restrictive for households.
    • Conditions are restrictive for smaller businesses, less so for larger.
    • Mortgage payments at record 10% of household disposable income.
    • Higher rates provide an incentive for all households to save more and borrow less.

    Market Reaction:

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) reacts little to the comments and remains at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics, which continues to be underpinned by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The AUD/USD pair was last seen trading around the 0.6440-0.6435 region, slightly lower for the second straight day, though remains confined in a familiar short-term range. 

  • 20.06.2024 13:11
    Fed's Kashkari: Will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to 2%

    Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari argued on Thursday that it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to 2%, per Reuters.

    Key takeaways

    "Wage growth might still be a bit too high to get back to 2% right now."

    "US economy has proven to be remarkably resilient."

    "We are getting disinflation despite remarkable economic growth."

    "Some evidence of some softening around edges of the economy."

    Market reaction

    These comments failed to trigger a significant market reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was up 0.23% on the day at 105.45.

  • 17.05.2024 14:49
    Fed's Waller does not comment on policy or economic outlook

    Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller delivered a prepared speech at the International Organization for Standardization Technical Committee 68 Financial Services 44th Plenary Meeting on Friday but refrained from commenting on the monetary policy or the economic outlook.

    "As we navigate the latest wave of technological innovation in payments, the fundamental payment system dynamics and role of technical standards are not new," Waller said. "However, the pace of change is a lot faster now than in the 1910s, when paper checks were used. Collaboration among a broad range of private and public stakeholders can help to establish standards for integrating the new technologies into the payment system."

    Summary of Federal Reserve policymakers' speeches after April inflation data: Fed officials recognize inflation progress, remain cautious about policy easing

    US Dollar PRICE This week

    The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   -0.95% -1.37% -0.20% -0.49% -1.29% -1.74% 0.10%
    EUR 0.95%   -0.47% 0.74% 0.44% -0.38% -0.82% 1.03%
    GBP 1.37% 0.47%   1.14% 0.91% 0.10% -0.34% 1.51%
    JPY 0.20% -0.74% -1.14%   -0.32% -1.06% -1.60% 0.33%
    CAD 0.49% -0.44% -0.91% 0.32%   -0.78% -1.26% 0.51%
    AUD 1.29% 0.38% -0.10% 1.06% 0.78%   -0.54% 1.42%
    NZD 1.74% 0.82% 0.34% 1.60% 1.26% 0.54%   1.86%
    CHF -0.10% -1.03% -1.51% -0.33% -0.51% -1.42% -1.86%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

    Fed FAQs

    Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

    The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

    In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

    Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

     

  • 25.04.2024 02:06
    Japan’s Hayashi: Won't comment on forex levels or forex intervention

    Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yishimasa Hayashi said on Thursday that he “won't comment on forex levels or forex intervention” but he “will be ready to take full response.”

    Additional comments

    Important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamentals.

    Rapid FX moves undesirable.

    Closely watching FX moves.

    Expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to work closely with govternment.

    Expect BoJ to conduct appropriate monetary policy to sustainably, stably hit its price target, working closely with govt.

    Market reaction

    USD/JPY is testing multi-decade highs near 155.50 despite the Japanese verbal intervention, up 0.04% on the day.

    Japanese Yen FAQs

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

    One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

    The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

    The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

     

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