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13.03.2025 11:06RBNZ: Turning the page or rewriting the script? – Standard Chartered
Adrian Orr’s resignation has no effect on near-term policy but raises longer-term uncertainty. Further regulatory easing is on the table, with restrictive capital rules under potential government review. Regulatory policy shifts could impact rate differentials and capital flows via banking capital requirements. The New Zealand rates curve may steepen as policy shifts emerge, Standard Chartered's economists Bader Al Sarraf and Nicholas Chia report.
Change of guard
"Adrian Orr’s resignation as governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) three years before the end of his second term comes at a time when monetary policy, financial regulation and macroeconomic conditions remain key concerns. Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby will be acting governor until 31 March, after which a temporary replacement will serve for up to six months."
"Since 1988, all RBNZ governors have been appointed externally, suggesting that an outsider may again be favoured. However, the names being flagged in local media include both internal and external candidates."
"Orr’s successor could influence New Zealand’s monetary policy trajectory, despite the RBNZ’s tradition of consensus-driven decision-making. A more hawkish governor could advocate for a slower pace of rate cuts, prioritising financial stability, while a dovish appointment could push for more aggressive easing to support growth. In our view, the next governor is likely to be a pragmatist, balancing policy flexibility with financial stability rather than steering the central bank in a sharply different direction."
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12.03.2025 09:34ECB's Šimkus: We will see if we cut rates or pause in April
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus said on Wednesday that “we will see if we cut rates or pause in April.”
Further comments
It is irrational to commit to future rate decisions.
The direction of travel has not changed.
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28.02.2025 00:12US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Open to the idea that other countries tariffs could come down or go away
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Thursday that he opened to the idea that other countries' tariffs could come down or go away.
Key quotes
Open to the idea that other countries' tariffs could come down or go away.
Ukraine critical minerals deal is done, there is no more negotiation on that.
Ukraine deal covers critical minerals, oil and gas, and infrastructure assets.
Ukraine deal shows the American people that we have not squandered their money.Market reaction
At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.03% higher on the day to trade at 107.32.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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03.01.2025 17:40Fed's Barkin: We must see inflation at 2% or weakening in demand to cut rates.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin delivered prepared remarks to the Maryland Bankers Association in Maryland on Friday, outlining the Fed's case for when to cut rates again, and the conditions required to do so. Fed's Barkin also downplayed direct and immediate impacts of incoming President Donald Trump's planned sweeping tariff plan.
Key highlights
Too much uncertainty to factor the Trump policy into the outlook.
We must see inflation at 2% or weakening in demand to cut rates.
The message from businesses is loud and clear that consumers are becoming more price sensitive.
I am in the camp of staying restrictive for longer, given the possible upside inflation risks.
The pass-through from tariffs to prices is not straightforward, it depends on multiple factors including business supply chains, and the price elasticity of consumers.
Conditions for cutting rates again include confidence in inflation's return to 2%, or a weakening of demand.
Companies feel more optimistic about the economy but are concerned about how coming changes will impact their businesses.
I still perceive that core underlying inflation is coming down nicely.
Housing demand is still very healthy compared to supply.
US debt is large and growing, it puts pressure on long rates.
I don't see the need to be nearly as restrictive as the Fed once was.
The Fed is well positioned to respond regardless of how economy develops.
Uncertainty in financial markets appears to have fallen, market predicted policy path seems aligned with fed median.
There is increased understanding that long-term rates may not fall as much as had been hoped.
The labor market is more likely to break toward increased hiring than toward layoffs.
There are some potential upside risks to inflation.
Inflation is still not back to target, more work to do.
The story of 2025 will be less about monetary policy, more about economic fundamentals and perhaps geopolitics.
The baseline outlook for 2025 is positive, with more upside than downside risk to growth.
As long as employment and asset values remain strong, consumers will spend.
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