Date | Rate | Change |
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AUD/JPY extends its winning streak for the third successive day after paring intraday losses on Wednesday. Additionally, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday, guiding the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. This has bolstered the Australian Dollar (AUD), consequently, underpinning the AUD/JPY cross.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) receives upward support due to the improved risk appetite, along with the higher ASX 200 Index, particularly driven by gains in technology and healthcare stocks. Australian shares followed the positive trend seen on Wall Street, buoyed by robust corporate earnings reports, which have lifted market sentiment. Additionally, diminishing tensions in the Middle East have contributed to a positive market atmosphere.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) encounters difficulties due to the widening yield gap between Japan and numerous other major countries, leading traders to borrow JPY and seek higher yields in other assets. Despite this trend, intervention by Japanese authorities to buy Yen has not yet occurred. With the Bank of Japan (BoJ) commencing its two-day policy meeting on Thursday, Tokyo may refrain from intervening in the currency market until at least next week.
The AUD/JPY trades around 100.90 on Wednesday. The currency cross moves above April’s high of 100.81. The daily ascending channel, coupled with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reacting above the 50 level, indicates a strengthening bullish sentiment. The immediate barrier appears at the psychological level of 101.00. A breakthrough above this level could prompt the AUD/JPY cross to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 101.50.
On the downside, the AUD/JPY cross could find key support at the major level of 100.50. A break below this level could lead the currency cross to the support level of 99.65, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around the level of 99.00.
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | -0.05% | -0.05% | 0.00% | -0.56% | 0.03% | -0.10% | -0.01% | |
EUR | 0.05% | -0.01% | 0.04% | -0.49% | 0.08% | -0.08% | 0.01% | |
GBP | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.05% | -0.48% | 0.09% | -0.08% | 0.03% | |
CAD | 0.01% | -0.04% | -0.05% | -0.54% | 0.04% | -0.13% | -0.02% | |
AUD | 0.53% | 0.45% | 0.48% | 0.54% | 0.53% | 0.40% | 0.51% | |
JPY | -0.04% | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.04% | -0.57% | -0.12% | -0.06% | |
NZD | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.12% | -0.45% | 0.13% | 0.13% | |
CHF | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.52% | 0.07% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
AUD/JPY maintains stability on Tuesday following gains in the previous session. The prevailing optimistic mood may lend support to the Australian Dollar (AUD), underpinning the AUD/JPY cross, potentially influenced by a relaxed geopolitical climate in the Middle East.
Australia's Judo Bank Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surged to a 24-month high of 53.6 in April, marking an improvement from the previous month's 53.3. This signals an accelerated expansion in the Australian private sector during the second quarter, with notable growth driven by the services sector.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) faces challenges due to the expanding yield gap between Japan and many other major countries, prompting traders to borrow JPY and invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.
Additionally, dovish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Friday added to the pressure on the Yen. According to Reuters, Ueda emphasized the necessity for the BoJ to maintain accommodative monetary policies in the foreseeable future due to underlying inflation remaining "somewhat below" the 2% target.
The AUD/JPY trades around 99.90 on Tuesday. The cross remains above the significant support level of 99.65, coupled with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) persisting above the 50 level, indicating an evolving bullish sentiment. The immediate barrier appears at the psychological level of 100.00, following the major level of 100.50 and April’s high of 100.81. A break above this region could lead the AUD/JPY cross to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
On the downside, the AUD/JPY cross could find immediate support at the psychological level of 99.50. A break below this level could lead the pair to approach the psychological level of 99.00. A break below this level could push the pair to test the lower boundary of the ascending channel and a major level of 98.50.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.00% | -0.12% | -0.04% | -0.04% | 0.00% | |
EUR | 0.03% | -0.02% | 0.03% | -0.08% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.01% | |
GBP | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.04% | -0.08% | -0.01% | 0.00% | 0.04% | |
CAD | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.11% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.01% | |
AUD | 0.12% | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.10% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.10% | |
JPY | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.02% | -0.08% | 0.01% | 0.04% | |
NZD | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.08% | 0.00% | 0.02% | |
CHF | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.03% | 0.01% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.02% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The AUD/JPY rallies sharply amid a risk-on impulse as Wall Street resumes its rally amid a light economic docket. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 99.87 clocks gains of more than 0.60%.
The AUD/JPY witnessed the formation of a ‘hammer’ on Friday in the daily chart, suggesting that further upside is seen. However, the pair plunged sharply toward a one-month low of 97.78 last Friday on geopolitical risks. As tensions abated, the Aussie Dollar (AUD) gained traction against the Japanese Yen (JPY).
If AUD/JPY continues its rally towards 100.00, it could potentially test the current year-to-date (YTD) high at 100.81. Once this level is cleared, the next significant resistance would be at 101.00, providing clear targets for traders to considers.
On the other hand, the AUD/JPY first support would be the 61.8% Fibo retracement at 99.65. Once cleared, the pair could drop toward the Tenkan-Sen and the Senkou Span A confluence at 99.20, followed by the 99.00 mark. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the March 28 swing low of 98.17.
AUD/JPY snaps its two-day losing streak on Monday as risk-on sentiment returned, with no significant geopolitical developments over the weekend. Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, urged for calm after an Iranian official stated that there is no immediate plan for retaliation to the reported Israeli missile strike. Blinken made these remarks while addressing the press on Friday after the G7 meeting of foreign ministers in Capri, Italy, as reported by "The Guardian".
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edges higher alongside the higher domestic equity market. The ASX 200 Index gains ground for the second consecutive session on Monday, with the increase in metals prices, including Iron Ore, Copper, and Gold. These movements coincide with a reduction in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which has uplifted market sentiment.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) encounters obstacles following dovish remarks from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda during a seminar hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics on Friday, as per Reuters’ report. Ueda stated that the BoJ must sustain loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future as underlying inflation remains "somewhat below" its 2% target, and long-term inflation expectations are still close to 1.5%. He also indicated that the Japanese central bank is "very likely" to raise interest rates if underlying inflation continues to rise and may commence reducing its bond-buying in the future, although the timing remains undecided.
The AUD/JPY traded around 99.70 on Friday. The breakthrough above the significant support level of 99.65, coupled with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) persisting above the 50 level, indicates an evolving bullish sentiment for the pair. The psychological level of 100.00 appears as the barrier, following the major level of 100.50 and April’s high of 100.81. On the downside, the AUD/JPY cross could find immediate support at the psychological level of 99.50. A break below this level could lead the pair to approach the psychological level of 99.00. A break below this level could push the pair to navigate the region around the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 98.67 and major level of 98.50.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.14% | -0.36% | -0.03% | -0.33% | -0.08% | |
EUR | 0.09% | -0.01% | -0.05% | -0.26% | 0.06% | -0.23% | 0.00% | |
GBP | 0.09% | 0.00% | -0.05% | -0.27% | 0.06% | -0.24% | 0.01% | |
CAD | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.22% | 0.10% | -0.19% | 0.05% | |
AUD | 0.36% | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.22% | 0.32% | 0.03% | 0.28% | |
JPY | 0.03% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.11% | -0.33% | -0.30% | -0.06% | |
NZD | 0.34% | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.21% | -0.01% | 0.31% | 0.28% | |
CHF | 0.08% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.28% | 0.04% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
AUD/JPY continues to decline for the second consecutive session following the release of Japan's inflation data on Friday. The National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose by 2.7% year-over-year, compared to a 2.8% increase in February, according to the latest data from the Japan Statistics Bureau. This index assesses the price fluctuations of goods and services bought by households.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) receives upward support from the hawkish remarks made by Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday. According to a Reuters report, Ueda mentioned in a press conference that the central bank might consider raising interest rates again if significant declines in the Yen substantially boost inflation. This underscores the influence that currency movements could have on the timing of the next policy shift.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced losses, along with a decline in the ASX 200 Index on Friday. Additionally, Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped below 4.3%, stepping back from over four-month highs. This retreat was attributed to soft domestic jobs data, which reinforced a dovish outlook on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy.
The AUD/JPY trades around 98.20 on Friday. The breach below the significant support level of 98.65, coupled with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) persisting below the 50 level, indicates a bearish sentiment for the pair. The AUD/JPY cross could find immediate support at the psychological level of 98.00. A break below this level could lead the pair to approach the major level of 97.50. On the upside, the major level of 98.50 appears as the barrier, followed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A breakthrough above the latter could support the AUD/JPY cross to explore the region around the psychological level of 99.00.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
USD | 0.20% | 0.24% | 0.14% | 0.69% | -0.27% | 0.57% | -0.52% | |
EUR | -0.20% | 0.04% | -0.05% | 0.49% | -0.41% | 0.37% | -0.71% | |
GBP | -0.24% | -0.04% | -0.10% | 0.45% | -0.50% | 0.33% | -0.76% | |
CAD | -0.14% | 0.06% | 0.09% | 0.55% | -0.40% | 0.43% | -0.66% | |
AUD | -0.69% | -0.49% | -0.45% | -0.56% | -0.96% | -0.12% | -1.27% | |
JPY | 0.22% | 0.44% | 0.45% | 0.36% | 0.92% | 0.79% | -0.29% | |
NZD | -0.57% | -0.38% | -0.33% | -0.43% | 0.12% | -0.80% | -1.07% | |
CHF | 0.52% | 0.72% | 0.75% | 0.66% | 1.20% | 0.26% | 1.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
The AUD/JPY showed a stronger stance by posting a gain of 0.27% and settling at 99.24 in Wednesday’s session. Despite the recent downside, the pair indicates a dominant bullish outlook, firmly standing above the key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, the recent dip below the 20-day SMA brightened the outlook for the bears for the short term.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pair indicates a slight positive trend. Despite dipping close to the 50 level, it recovered and retained its position in positive territory, hovering around 52. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows rising red bars, signaling a potential shift in momentum.
The hourly RSI reveals a mixed trend. The latest reading was 53, indicating a positive trend, while previous readings varied between positive and negative territories, revealing fluctuating market momentum. The hourly MACD shows flat red bars, signifying a steady negative momentum.
Observing the broader prospect, the AUD/JPY's position above the 100-day and 200-day SMA reveals a robust long-term bullish trend. Any significant movements today that keep the cross above these levels won’t threaten the positive outlook, but as the bears gather momentum, some downside in the short term should be expected.
AUD/JPY relinquishes its recent gains, likely attributable to risk aversion as investors await Israel’s reaction to Iran’s air strike on Saturday with caution. Furthermore, the Australian Dollar (AUD) encounters obstacles amid apprehensions that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may be compelled to reduce interest rates in the foreseeable future. The AUD/JPY cross trades around 99.10 during the European session on Tuesday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces increased negative sentiment, which contributes to downward pressure for the AUD/JPY cross. This sentiment is driven by divergent monetary policy outlooks between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). The “Financial Review” suggests that the RBA may need to ease monetary policy before the Fed. Furthermore, persistent high inflation in the United States (US), the world's largest economy, introduces uncertainty regarding whether the Federal Reserve will take action this year.
Moreover, However, the Australian Dollar pares losses after mixed data from its significant trading partner, China. This rebound may have helped to mitigate the losses of the AUD/JPY cross. China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2024 increased by 1.6% QoQ, exceeding 1.0% prior. Annual GDP growth came at 5.3%, against the expected 5.0% and the previous reading of 5.2%. However, China's Industrial Production (YoY) in March increased by 4.5%, falling short of market expectations of 5.4% and the previous reading of 7.0%.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen might have faced challenges due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish outlook, consequently, limiting the downside of the AUD/JPY cross. The BoJ refrained from guiding future policy measures following the cessation of negative interest rates in March.
As per Reuter’s reports on Tuesday, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi emphasized the importance of currencies moving in a stable manner that reflects underlying fundamentals. He noted that authorities are closely monitoring foreign exchange (FX) movements and are prepared to take all necessary measures to ensure stability. Similarly, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated his vigilance regarding FX movements and affirmed his readiness to implement any measures deemed necessary.
The AUD/JPY pair continues its winning streak that began on April 4, climbing to near 100.30 during the European session on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains subdued as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) adopts a cautious approach amidst an uncertain outlook for future rate hikes.
The AUD/JPY pair may receive upward support due to the persistent gap between Australian and Japanese interest rates. Investors are increasingly skeptical about the need for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to implement interest rate cuts in 2024, particularly following positive US data, which has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might maintain its higher interest rate stance for a longer period.
However, investors remain vigilant amid the possibility of Japanese authorities intervening in the market to prevent a destabilizing decline in the domestic currency. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda continues to address inflation and policy outlook, with expectations of a gradual acceleration in the inflation trend. Therefore, it is crucial to monitor data and information to assess whether this scenario materializes.
Governor Ueda also emphasized that one of the factors to monitor is whether pay hikes offered in annual wage talks will materialize, as reflected in actual data. Another factor is whether service prices will increase, reflecting higher wages. If the inflation trend accelerates towards the 2% target, it may become possible to reduce the degree of monetary stimulus somewhat.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to advance against the Japanese Yen, despite the subdued Westpac Consumer Confidence data released on Tuesday. The AUD is bolstered by a stronger domestic equity market, with the ASX 200 Index poised for gains as investor attention remains focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions.
AUD/JPY continues to move in the positive direction, rising to near 99.90 during the European session on Monday. This rise is attributed to the appreciation of the Australian Dollar (AUD), supported by gains in the domestic equity market. The ASX 200 Index experienced upward momentum during the opening session of the week, particularly fueled by a surge in tech stocks.
Additionally, Australia's 10-year government bond yield climbed to nearly 4.1%, reaching over one-month highs. This increase follows a rally in US bond yields, driven by stronger-than-expected US jobs data. Speculation has arisen that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period.
Investors are growing increasingly skeptical about the need for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates at any point throughout 2024. This sentiment has been reinforced by more positive data emerging from the US, which has strengthened expectations that borrowing costs in the world's largest economy will remain elevated for an extended period.
In the previous week, unchanged Final Retail Sales and downbeat Trade Balance data from Australia exerted downward pressure on the Australian Dollar (AUD). Market participants are closely monitoring the prices of copper and oil, as further appreciation could potentially provide support for the Australian Dollar (AUD), consequently, underpinning the AUD/JPY cross.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to face downward pressure as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains a cautious stance towards further policy tightening. Additionally, reduced geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could dampen the appeal of the safe-haven JPY. Israel's decision to withdraw additional troops from Southern Gaza, likely in response to mounting international pressure, has contributed to a relaxation of tensions.
Earlier on Monday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda made remarks expressing his aspiration to simplify and enhance the clarity of the central bank's policy framework, provided economic conditions permitted. Governor Ueda made these comments while reflecting on his tenure since assuming the post approximately a year ago.
AUD/JPY breaks its three-day winning streak, declining to near 99.30 during the Asian session on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY), considered a safe-haven currency, strengthened as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East. This dynamic contributed to the weakening of the AUD/JPY cross.
The escalation of tensions follows Iran's vow to retaliate against Israel's attack on Iran's embassy in Syria, which led to the loss of Iranian military personnel. Additionally, reports indicating heightened threats against Israeli embassies in the United States (US) by Iran have further heightened market concerns.
Additionally, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested on Friday that the central bank might adjust monetary policy if foreign exchange fluctuations significantly affect the wage-inflation cycle in a manner that cannot be overlooked. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that he is closely monitoring currency movements with a strong sense of urgency and is prepared to explore all available options to address excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market.
Minister Suzuki also highlighted that decisions regarding monetary policy, including the timing of interest rate adjustments, fall within the jurisdiction of the Bank of Japan's Board of Directors (BOD). The government aims to collaborate closely with the BOD to consistently achieve its inflation target stably.
Following the release of unchanged Final Retail Sales and disappointing Trade Balance data from Australia on Friday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a decline. According to data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia's Trade Surplus (Month-over-Month) narrowed to 7,280 million in March, falling short of the expected 10,400 million and February’s reading of 10,058 million.
The decrease in Australia's Exports by 2.2% month-over-month, in contrast to the previous increase of 1.6%, contributed to the narrowing surplus. Additionally, the nation’s Imports saw growth of 4.8%, compared to 1.3% in the previous period. Australia's Final Retail Sales remained unchanged at 0.3% in February, aligning with expectations.
The AUD/JPY cross extends its upside to two-week peaks around 99.92 on Thursday during the early European session. The dovish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at its March meeting and the lack of any guidance about future policy steps exert some selling pressure on the Japanese Yen (JPY). Australia’s Trade Balance for March will be released on Friday for fresh impetus.
The BoJ’s first interest rate hike in 17 years failed to boost the JPY as the rates in Japan remain much lower than the rest of the world. Furthermore, the expectations that the Japanese central bank will go slow in any further rate hikes and the lack of any guidance about the pace of policy normalization, weigh on the safe-haven JPY against the Australian Dollar (AUD) and create a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross.
On the Aussie front, business activity in Australia improved further in March. The final reading of Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI rose to 54.4 in March from the previous reading of 53.5, while the Composite PMI figure climbed to 53.3 in March versus 52.4 prior. The upbeat data provides some support to the AUD amid a positive tone around the equity markets on Thursday. On the other hand, the upside of the AUD/JPY cross might be limited due to the higher possibility that the Japanese authorities will intervene in the foreign exchange (FX) market to prevent the depreciation of the JPY.
In Wednesday's session, the AUD/JPY pair is trading at 99.58, following an increase of 0.82%. Buyers appear in control, but indicators are flashing signals of a short-term consolidation.
On the daily chart, the AUD/JPY pair reveals a bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) resides deep in positive territory, with recent readings reaching as high as 61, indicating the domination of buyers in the market. Furthermore, the rising green bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram show a positive momentum, supporting the bullish outlook.
Upon inspecting the hourly chart, the RSI readings consistently hover in the overbought zone, with the latest entry at 78 but the index has started to edge downwards. A flat green histogram on the MACD also gives arguments for a short-term consolidation.
Considering the broader outlook, the pair also stands above the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This setup suggests short-term and long-term trends are bullish, and traders may expect further upside.
In conclusion, both daily and hourly charts for the AUD/JPY pair highlight a bullish outlook. The RSI values and the MACD histograms across both timelines point to strong upward movement, with buyers currently holding market reins. However, indicators on the hourly chart point to further consolidation as they lie deep in the overbought zone.
AUD/JPY edges lower to near 98.70 during the European session on Wednesday. The prevailing risk-off sentiment bolsters demand for the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY). Moreover, investors are exercising caution amidst speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the markets to prevent a notable depreciation of the Yen.
Despite this, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious approach towards further policy tightening failed to kindle bullish sentiment or generate significant momentum. Although the Japanese Yen (JPY) encountered difficulties in sustaining its strength in the current market environment.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces difficulties attributed to the decline in the ASX 200 Index, consequently exerting downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross. However, the Australian Industry Group (AiG) Industry Index displayed improvement in February, rising to a reading of -5.3 from the previous -14.9. Similarly, the AiG Manufacturing PMI recorded -7, compared to the prior reading of -12.6.
In the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) March minutes, the board indicated that they did not consider the option of raising interest rates. Despite acknowledging the uncertain economic outlook, the board perceived the risks to be generally balanced. Additionally, the board highlighted that it would take "some time" before they could express confidence in inflation returning to the target level.
Additionally, Westpac's summary of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) March meeting minutes stated the current cash rate level is deemed appropriate for the prevailing circumstances, although conditions are subject to potential changes in the future.
The AUD/JPY registered gains of 0.38% on Tuesday, amid a risk-off impulse as depicted by Wall Street. US equities posted mild losses, though it was ignored by risk-perceived currencies in the FX markets, like the Australian Dollar.
The threats of an intervention in the Forex markets to boost the Japanese Yen (JPY) by Japanese authorities, keeps traders at bay, uncommitted to open fresh long bets that could send the AUD/JPY toward the -year-to-date (YTD) high if 100.17. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) depicts that buyers are in charge.
That said, the AUD/JPY first resistance level would be the Tenkan-Sen at 99.17, followed by the YTD high. A breach of the latter will expose the psychological 100.50 mark, followed by the 101.00 mark.
On the flip side, if sellers move in and push prices below the Kijun-Sen of 98.53, that can pave the way to test 98.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 97.87, ahead of testing the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) top at 97.80.
AUD/JPY appreciates to near 98.80 during the European session on Monday, potentially supported by positive Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures. The close trading relationship between China and Australia likely contributes to this correlation.
Moreover, the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) may have encountered negative sentiment as investor confidence was buoyed by the first expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity in six months, observed in March.
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI was reported at 51.1 on Monday, surpassing expectations of 51.0 and exceeding the previous reading of 50.9. Before that, on Sunday, China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that the Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 in the prior month. Additionally, the Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 53.0 in March from 51.4 in February.
Former BOJ official Tsutomu Watanabe has indicated that the next rate hike in Japan might not materialize until October at the earliest. According to an assessment reported by Bloomberg (gated), Watanabe foresees the BoJ adopting a cautious, data-driven approach, primarily due to concerns surrounding Yen depreciation.
However, the Australian Dollar (AUD) might have struggled due to weaker Consumer Inflation Expectations, which could suggest expectations for interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in late 2024. Investors are anticipated to closely scrutinize the release of the RBA Meeting Minutes scheduled for Tuesday to gain insights into the central bank's stance and future policy direction.
The AUD/JPY cross manages to recover a few pips from the Asian session low and currently trades just below the 99.00 round-figure mark, nearly unchanged for the day.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) meets with some supply after the official data showed that domestic consumer inflation rose by the 3.4% YoY rate in February as compared to expectations for an uptick to 3.5%. The initial market reaction, however, turns out to be short-lived amid growing acceptance that any potential rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will commence in the second half of the year. This, along with the prevalent selling bias surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY), assists the AUD/JPY cross to attract some dip-buying near the 98.75-98.70 region.
Despite the historic move rate hike for the first time since 2007, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) struck a dovish tone at the end of the March meeting and stopped short of offering any guidance about future policy steps, or the pace of policy normalization. Adding to this, the BoJ indicated that it intends to maintain an accommodative monetary policy for an extended period, which continues to undermine the JPY and lends some support to the AUD/JPY cross. The upside, however, seems limited amid speculations that authorities will intervene in the markets to stem any further JPY weakness.
In fact, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that he won't rule out any decisive steps to respond to disorderly FX moves. This comes after Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda earlier this week labelled the recent moves as speculative and said that the current JPY weakness does not reflect fundamentals. This, in turn, warrants some caution for bullish traders and positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for the AUD/JPY cross.
In Tuesday's session, AUD/JPY was seen declining to 98.95, marking mild losses. Despite the insignificant setback, neither buyers nor sellers have gained a distinct advantage, indicating potential market stability or a possible shift in direction. While signs of selling pressure are evident, the pair exhibits a strong stand over the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), signifying long-term bullish sentiment. That being said, there are signals that the sellers are present after pushing the pair down by nearly 1% last Friday.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands with a neutral slope. The flattening trend and the green bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hint that the market remains largely balanced, with neither buyers nor sellers having a distinct edge on Tuesday.
Moving onto the hourly chart, the RSI trajectory appears slightly bearish, with recent readings below 50, suggesting mounting selling pressure. The rising red MACD histogram bars further confirm the existing negative momentum.
When assessing both charts, the short-term outlook seems to contrast with the daily chart's indications, which appear less bearish. It is evident that the bears are taking a breather following last week’s strong downward movements, but are still around the corner. However, the 1% dip seen on Friday, hasn’t affected yet the overall bullish trend.
The AUD/JPY pair is currently trading at 98.60, showing a substantial decrease of nearly 1%. Despite this decline, the broader trend continues to show positivity, with bulls maintaining their control. In addition, as the downward movements might be over-extended, the pair may enter a consolidation phase.
On the daily chart, the technical outlook for the AUD/JPY pair suggests a positive trend. The latest Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading resides in the positive territory, aligning with the recent upward momentum. Having peaked near overbought conditions earlier in the week, the RSI has now pulled back to a moderate level, pointing towards potential consolidation. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) paints a contrasting picture, showing decreasing green bars that signify a slowdown in positive market momentum.
Switching to the hourly chart, the last session's RSI plunged deep into the oversold territory, which could hint at a potential short-term correction upwards. Despite the sharp drop in the RSI, the MACD histogram displays flat green bars, implying stagnating bullish momentum on hourly timeframes.
The next target for the sellers is the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 98.10. Below that the 100 and 200-day SMAs will act as strong supports in case the downside pressure persists but if the bulls defend this level, the overall trend will remain positive.
The AUD/JPY cross faces some selling pressure around the 99.00 mark during the early European session on Friday. The uptick in Japanese Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weighs on the AUD/JPY. Investors will take more cues from the Australian monthly CPI next week. AUD/JPY currently trades near 98.98, down 0.63%.
The recent data from the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday revealed that the nation’s CPI inflation data for February climbed to 2.8% YoY from 2.2% in January. This figure remains well above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target, boosting the JPY against the Australian Dollar on Friday. Furthermore, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose to 2.8% in February from 2.0% in the previous month, in line with market expectations.
On the Aussie front, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday that Australia added 116.5K new employees in February from 15.3K in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7% in February from 4.1% in January, stronger than the market expectation of 4.0%.
Next week, the market players will monitor the Australian monthly CPI and Retail Sales for February. On the Japanese docket, Tokyo CPI for March will be a closely watched event. Traders will take cues from these events and find trading opportunities around the AUD/JPY cross.
The AUD/JPY is virtually unchanged on Thursday in late trading during the North American session. At the time of writing, the pair is 99.62 shy of the 100.00 figure after hitting a ten-year high of 100.17 on positive Aussie jobs data.
The AUD/JPY daily chart suggests the cross is upward biased, though today’s price action indicates neither buyers nor sellers are gaining the battle. The pair surged past the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), signaling a strong uptrend, reinforced by the price exchanging hands above both the Tenkan and Kijun-Sen levels.
The slope of the Senkou Span A aims higher, indicating that further upside is seen. The 100.00 figure is the key resistance level. Once cleared, the next stop would be 100.17 and the 101.00 figure. Up next would be the 2014 high at 102.84.
Nevertheless, due to an overextended market move, the potential for a mean reversion move increases. Even though a pullback to the February 23 swing high at 99.05 isn’t out of cards, the pullback could be capitalized by bulls, as the rally is set to continue. However, a deeper pullback below that level could expose the Tenkan and Kijun-sen levels at 98.53.
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