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CFD Trading Rate Australian Dollar vs Japanese Yen (AUDJPY)

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  • 19.07.2024 19:47
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Downward pressures resume, pair closes its weakest week since April
    • AUD/JPY resumes decline, falling to 105.25, marking one of the lowest levels in over a month.
    • The recovery experienced on Thursday was short-lived as selling pressures resumed, augmenting the prevalent negative outlook.

    In Friday's session, the AUD/JPY pair has resumed its downtrend, declining by 0.20% to reach 105.25. The resumption of this bearish trend suggests that the rebound registered previously on Thursday may have been more corrective rather than indicative of a trend reversal. This sustains the dominance of the bears and reinforces the existing negative outlook as the pair will close a 1.60% weekly loss.

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AUD/JPY currently stands at 42, slightly below Thursday's value, suggesting a continuation of the negative momentum. The similar pattern in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) that continues to print rising red bars, suggests a continuation of the selling activity, despite the minor rebound seen previously.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    On a broader perspective, the AUD/JPY's short-term bearish trajectory seems to persist, with its price remaining below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Looking ahead, immediate support levels appear to have formed around the 105.00 mark, which the buying pressure needs to maintain to fend off a deeper correction. To moderate further potential losses, bulls must aim for the recovery of the 106.00, and subsequently, the 106.50 mark.

  • 18.07.2024 20:43
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Cross revives, bears are still in command
    • AUD/JPY cuts losses, rising to 105.40, still in lows in over a month.
    • The five-day downtrend has been halted, indicating a potential settling of bearish sentiment.

    In Thursday's session, the AUD/JPY pair cut a significant five-day losing streak, climbing by 0.30% to reach 105.50. This rise is symbolically indicative of an interruption to the extended bearish momentum experienced by the pair seen in the last sessions. Even so, indicator readings are still stationed in the negatives, creating the possibility for the pair's upward correction to be rather more corrective in nature.

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AUD/JPY now hovers at 43, marking the potential start of a mild rebound from its session's reading of 37. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still shows flat red bars, suggesting a pause in the intensified selling activity seen previously.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    Looking at the broader picture, the AUD/JPY pair seems to continue its bearish course, emphasized by its position below its 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moving forward, immediate support levels rest at 105.00 and 104.30 which buyers must watch in anticipation of a potential deeper correction. To avoid further potential losses, buyers must strive to recover the 106.00 mark, extending their goal to the reclaiming of the 106.50 level.

  • 17.07.2024 19:28
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Severe losses seen with indicators deep in negative territory
    • AUD/JPY drops towards 105.00, notably below the 20-day SMA.
    • The downtrend continues, now showing sharp momentum as bearish sentiment increases.
    • With intensified bearish momentum, the pair may see a slight upward correction.

    In Wednesday's session, the AUD/JPY pair recorded a significant drop to 105.05, marking an extended five-day losing streak from last week. This decline is a significant drop from Tuesday's close of 106.80, indicating a deepening bearish momentum for the pair. This continued downtrend, which is marked by indicators being deep in negative terrain, suggests that the pair may see further losses in the short term but a correction is also in the table.

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AUD/JPY now stands at 40, as the pair has reached new lows since mid-June. Simultaneously, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints rising red bars, implying an intensified selling activity.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    In the broader picture, the AUD/JPY pair seems to maintain its bearish tendency, much highlighted by its position notably below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) supports. As the pair proceeds its descent, immediate support levels at 105.00 and 104.30 become the crucial markers to watch. To avoid further potential losses, buyers must look to reclaim the 106.00 mark and further target the resurrection of the 106.50 level.

     

  • 16.07.2024 19:32
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair sees mild losses, downtrend shows slowing momentum
    • AUD/JPY eases to 106.80, still under the 20-day SMA support.
    • Downward trajectory continues, yet with a slackening pace as the bearish sentiment seems to be decelerating.
    • As bears lose steam the pair might side-ways trade in the next sessions.

    In Tuesday's session, the AUD/JPY pair recorded a slight decline to 106.70, following up on the gradual declining trend from last week. However, the bearish momentum seems to be flattening as suggested by the shape of the daily candles, following a four-day losing streak. As such, while the pair is projected to maintain its descent, a slowdown in bearish activity may be approaching.

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the AUD/JPY pair now stands at 51 while the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints flat red bars, implying that the selling activity is easing.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    Taking a wider view, the AUD/JPY pair seems to maintain a bearish tendency, further accentuated by its position below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support. Should the downward movement proceed, the immediate support levels at 106.50 and 106.00 remain the critical markers to watch. On the flip side, to limit further potential losses, buyers should aim to retrieve the 107.00 level, the 107.30 zone (20-day SMA), and then target the 108.00 barrier as a signal for recovery.

  • 16.07.2024 05:00
    AUD/JPY recovers further from over two-week low, lacks bullish conviction
    • AUD/JPY snaps a three-day losing streak to over a two-week low touched on Monday.
    • The risk-on environment undermines the safe-haven JPY and lends support to the cross.
    • Intervention fears, along with China’s economic woes, might cap any meaningful gains. 

    The AUD/JPY cross attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday and moves away from over a two-week low, around the 106.55 area touched the previous day. Spot prices climb back above the 107.00 mark in the last hour and for now, seem to have snapped a three-day losing streak amid the emergence of fresh selling around the Japanese Yen (JPY).

    The prevalent risk-on environment – as depicted by an extension of a runaway rally across the global equity markets – is seen as a key factor undermining the JPY's relative safe-haven status. Apart from this, the JPY depreciating move lacks any obvious catalyst and is likely to remain cushioned in the wake of speculations that Japanese authorities might intervene in the markets to prop up the domestic currency. 

    In fact, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi was out with some verbal intervention earlier this Tuesday and showed readiness to employ all available measures regarding forex. This comes on top of speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates in response to a weakening domestic currency should act as a tailwind for the JPY, warranting some caution for the AUD/JPY bulls.

    Apart from this, concerns about a slowdown Chinese economy – the world's second-largest economy – seem to weigh on the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD) and might cap the AUD/JPY cross. The market worries resurfaced after the official data released on Monday showed that China's economy grew by 4.7% over the year during the second quarter of 2024 as compared to the 5.3% rise in the previous quarter. 

    Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the recent corrective slide from the highest level since May 1991, around the 109.35 region touched last Thursday, has run its course and positioning for any further appreciating move. Traders now look forward to the release of the monthly Australian employment details for some meaningful impetus on Thursday.

    Australian Dollar FAQs

    One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

    China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

    Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

    The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

     

  • 15.07.2024 20:52
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair slides below 107.00, bearish sentiment increase
    • AUD/JPY slips towards 106.90, breaching the 20-day SMA support.
    • A bearish sentiment is projected for the next few session, continuing the downtrend from last week.

    In Monday's trading session, the AUD/JPY pair noted a further decline of 0.15% to fall to 106.90. This continues the observable trend from last week Thursday's session which saw a significant drop from above 109.00. The present conditions point towards a bearish outlook for the forthcoming sessions as sellers appear to continue their dominance.

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the AUD/JPY pair currently reads 53, showing a marginal plunge from last week’s high of 80, slowly pushing toward the bearish zone. Despite this shift, the market seems to retain its neutral stance as it remains in positive territory. Complementing this, the daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows rising red bars, indicating potential weakness.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    From a broader viewpoint, the AUD/JPY pair hints at a bearish sentiment, especially considering its position below the 20-day SMA support. Should further downward movement occur, the immediate support levels at 106.50 and 106.00 are pivotal marks to consider. Conversely, to mitigate further potential losses, buyers must aim to surpass the 107.00 level (20-day SMA) and aim towards the 108.00 barrier to signal recovery.

  • 15.07.2024 02:56
    AUD/JPY remains confined in a narrow range around 107.00 mark after Chinese macro data
    • AUD./JPY oscillates in a narrow trading band and is influenced by a combination of factors. 
    • Intervention fears, BoJ rate hike bets and US political jitters underpin the safe-haven JPY.
    • The Chinese macro data does little to impress the AUD bulls or provide impetus to the cross.

    The AUD/JPY cross struggles for a firm intraday direction on Monday and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses during the Asian session. Spot prices hold steady around the 107.00 round-figure mark and react little to rather unimpressive Chinese macro data. 

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that China’s economy expanded by 4.7% over the year in the second quarter of 2024, compared to a 5.3% expansion in the first quarter. On a quarterly basis, the Chinese economy grew by 0.7% in Q2 2024 as compared to the 1.5% registered in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, China’s Retail Sales climbed 2.0% YoY in June vs. 3.1% expected and 3.7% prior, while the country’s Industrial Production came in at 5.3% YoY vs. 5.0% estimates and May’s 5.6%. Moreover, the Fixed Asset Investment increased by 3.9% YTD YoY in June vs 3.9% expected and 4.0% last. The data, however, does little to provide any meaningful impetus to the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD), though bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could possibly be raising interest rates again act as a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross.

    The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, draws some support from rising bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates in response to a weakening domestic currency. Adding to this, speculation that Japanese authorities might step into the market to lift the domestic currency, along with the US political jitters in the wake of an alleged assassination attempt on former US President Donald Trump, lend support to the safe-haven JPY. This, in turn, is holding back traders from placing aggressive directional bets around the AUD/JPY cross and leading to subdued range-bound price action on the first day of a new week. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for an extension of the recent pullback from the highest level since May 1991, around the 109.35 region touched last Thursday.

    Economic Indicator

    Gross Domestic Product (YoY)

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

    Read more.

    Last release: Mon Jul 15, 2024 02:00

    Frequency: Quarterly

    Actual: 4.7%

    Consensus: 5.1%

    Previous: 5.3%

    Source:

     

  • 12.07.2024 21:44
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Pair drops to around 107.00, bearish outlook ahead
    • AUD/JPY declines to 107.10 while holding just above the 20-day SMA support.
    • A bearish outlook looms for the next few sessions, following a substantial dip from Thursday.

    In Friday's trading session, a downward turn was observed for the AUD/JPY pair as it dipped by 0.23% to reach 107.10. This indicative decline marks a notable shift from the previous session's buoyancy, which saw the pair above the 109.00 mark. Present circumstances suggest a bearish outlook for the next few sessions, as it turns evident that the sellers have found their footing.

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the AUD/JPY marked a significant dip from Thursday's 79 to 54, drifting even near into negative territory. This trend shift hints at a weakening upward momentum, potentially signifying more bearish days ahead. In concert with this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) demonstrates rising red bars.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    Looking at the broader perspective, the AUD/JPY still displays signs of possible bearish sentiment, given its position just slightly above the 20-day SMA support at 107.10. In case of further downward action, immediate support levels at 107.00 and 106.00 are key areas to watch. However, to avert further potential losses, buyers must target a recovery that extends towards the 108.00 barrier.

  • 12.07.2024 04:01
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Struggles to break through 38.2% Fibo. after Chinese trade data
    • AUD/JPY stages a goodish recovery from a two-week low touched earlier this Friday.
    • The emergence of fresh selling around the JPY is seen as a key factor lending support.
    • The technical setup warrants caution before positioning for any further intraday gains.

    The AUD/JPY cross attracts some dip-buyers near the 106.75 region, or a two-week trough touched during the Asian session on Friday and stalls the previous day's retracement slide from its highest level since May 1991. The intraday move-up is sponsored by a combination of factors and lifts spot prices to the 107.70 region, or a fresh daily peak in the last hour.

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) meets with a fresh supply in the absence of any concrete evidence that Japanese authorities stepped into the FX market to support the domestic currency. Apart from this, the underlying strong bullish sentiment across the global equity markets undermines the safe-haven JPY and benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie, which further draws support from bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could raise rates again.

    Meanwhile, Chinese data released this Friday showed that the trade surplus, in Chinese Yuan terms, widened to CNY703.73 billion from the previous figure of CNY586.40 billion. Additional details of the report revealed that exports rose 10.7% YoY in June vs. 11.2% seen in May, while the country’s imports dropped 0.6% YoY during the reported month vs. the 5.2% previous. This, however, does little to provide any impetus to the AUD/JPY cross.

    From a technical perspective, spot prices, so far, have been struggling to build on the strength beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall from the overnight swing high. Moreover, oscillators on hourly charts are still holding in the negative territory and warrant some caution for bullish traders. A sustained strength beyond the said barrier, however, should pave the way for a further intraday appreciating move. 

    The AUD/JPY cross might then aim to reclaim the 108.00 mark, which now coincides with the 50% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying will suggest that the corrective pullback has run its course and set the stage for the resumption of the uptrend witnessed over the past month or so. 

    On the flip side, the 107.35 area, or the 23.6% Fibo. level now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 107.00 mark and the Asian session low, around the 106.75 region. A convincing break below will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders, making the AUD/JPY cross vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards the 106.50-106.40 intermediate support en route to the 106.00 mark and the 105.65 region.

    AUD/JPY 1-hour chart

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    Economic Indicator

    Trade Balance CNY

    The Trade Balance released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the CNY. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic indicator would have an impact on the Forex market. In general, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the CNY.

    Read more.

    Last release: Fri Jul 12, 2024 03:00

    Frequency: Monthly

    Actual: 703.73B

    Consensus: -

    Previous: 586.4B

    Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

     

  • 11.07.2024 19:56
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Cross plunges and falls below 108.00
    • AUD/JPY sharply declined by more than 1.50%.
    • The RSI fell non-stop from the deep overbought region near its middle point.

    During Thursday's trading session, the AUD/JPY pair witnessed sharp losses towards 107.30. Overall, the pair is generally taking a pause as buyers hold off, and given the pair's status in the multi-year, the probability of further corrections is imminent. However, indicators scaped overbought conditions which is healthy for the pair.

    On the daily view, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AUDJPY  plunged to nearly 56, non-stop from the 70 threshold. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) portrays a declining green bars scenario, mimicking a tapering off of the existing bullish momentum.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    From the broader perspective, the AUD/JPY pair continues to exhibit signs of a potent bullish sentiment backed by its position in multi-year highs and above its main Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). In case of further pullbacks, several key supports line up below 107.00  where the 20-day SMA converges. The 106.50 and 106.00 could come into play to limit losses. However, should the pair sustain buyer interest, the pair might seek a retest around the 107.00-109.00 area.

  • 11.07.2024 05:11
    AUD/JPY appreciates further beyond 109.00 mark, its highest level since May 1991
    • AUD/JPY continues scaling higher for the third straight day and climbs to a fresh multi-decade high.
    • The risk-on mood undermines the safe-haven JPY and lends support amid hawkish RBA expectations.
    • Speculations that the BoJ may act soon in response to the weakening JPY and cap any further gains.

    The AUD/JPY cross gains positive traction for the third successive day and climbs to its highest level since May 1991, around the 109.35 area during the Asian session on Thursday. The momentum is sponsored by a combination of factors, though speculations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates in response to a weakening Japanese Yen (JPY) might cap any further gains. 

    Moreover, a Bloomberg report on Tuesday said that the BoJ is conducting three in-person meetings with banks, securities firms, and financial institutions to assess a feasible pace for scaling back its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Wednesday – citing unnamed sources – that the BoJ will likely trim this year's economic growth forecast and project inflation will stay around its 2% target in coming years at its meeting later this month. Adding to this, the prevalent risk-on environment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven JPY and benefit risk-sensitive Aussie, is seen acting as a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross. 

    The strong move up could further be attributed to bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could possibly be raising interest rates again. That said, speculations that Japanese authorities will eventually intervene to prop up the domestic currency might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the AUD/JPY cross. Market participants, however, now see the 165.00 mark for the USD/JPY pair as a new line in the sand for intervention. This, in turn, might do little to inspire the JPY bulls, which, along with this week's breakout through the 108.60 horizontal resistance, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/JPY cross is to the upside.

    Japanese Yen FAQs

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

    One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

    The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

    The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

     

  • 05.07.2024 21:11
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis:Bulls Pause, pair remains steady above 108.00
    • AUD/JPY moderates, hovering steadily above the 108.00 mark, wrapping up a week with a 1% gain.
    • Buyers are taking a breather and keeping the cross in cycle highs.
    • A healthy correction shouldn’t be taken off the table.

    In the trading session of Friday, the AUD/JPY pair curtailed its recent bullish momentum but managed to close the week around 108.50 level. This slight pullback, most likely an effect of traders booking profits, has not blown out the bullish shine of the pair's weekly performance, winning a close of 1%.

    In the day's performance, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the AUDJPY settled at 80, translating into a flattening but still pointing towards an overbought scenario. This may indicate the potential of a forthcoming correction in the near term. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) painted a scenario of flattening green bars, mirroring a cooling of the robust bullish momentum.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    Looking at the bigger picture, the AUD/JPY pair keeps showing signs of robust bullish sentiment underpinned by its standing above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). In the event of a corrective pressure bringing the pair could will face at the 108.00 mark and then further down at the 107.50 and 107.00 levels. Specifically, the 104.90 (20-day SMA) level could serve as an additional support line.

     

     

  • 03.07.2024 19:55
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Yen performance fuels continued uptrend, pair stretches above 108.00
    • AUD/JPY strengthens its position, touching new peaks beyond 108.00.
    • Overbought conditions could trigger a healthy correction, yet the outlook reveals a continuation of momentum.

    In Wednesday's session, the AUD/JPY pair elongated its upward trajectory, reaching new high points around 108.40, hence beating its record once again after crossing its 2007 highs of around 107.30.

    On a daily scale, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the AUDJPY settled at 80 and it concurrently flags the pair as overbought, which may provoke a downward correction. Parallely, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) depicts growing green bars, signifying stubborn bullish momentum, although a correction seems likely given the overbought situation.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    In the broader perspective, the AUD/JPY pair exhibits relentless bullish behaviors, fortified by its standing above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Should the pair face a correction pulling it beneath the 108.00 level, followed by the 107.00 mark, it could discover new support levels. Thus, the 104.90 (20-day SMA) level may act as another potential support line. Meanwhile, buyers will investigate unexplored grounds should the pair stay on its current course and surpass the 108.50 level.

  • 03.07.2024 09:49
    AUD/JPY is back in fashion – Societe Generale

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to find support in solid data, this morning in the form of retail sales, Societe Generale analyst Kit Juckes notes.

    AUD/JPY draws attention of the market

    “The front end of the curve now prices a 50% chance of another rate hike this year and the Australian/US 2y yield differential is wider than it was at the start of the year (when AUD/USD was above 0.68).”

    “The more fashionable trade today, however, may be to buy AUD/JPY. The Japanese Yen (JPY) bears are talking of the BoJ’s next line in the sand being at USD/JPY 6, though most of them simply think that as long as yield differentials are huge, the yen can just keep on falling.”

    “I can’t see the yen turning around until Fed easing is in view, and AUD/JPY has now broken above the 2007 peak and is back at levels last spotted in 1991.”

  • 02.07.2024 03:34
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Corrects from multi-year peak, downside potential seems limited
    • AUD/JPY pulls back from its highest level since 2007 touched on Monday.
    • The less hawkish RBA minutes prompts bulls to take profits off the table.
    • The technical setup makes it prudent to wait for a near-term consolidation.

    The AUD/JPY cross drifts lower during the Asian session on Tuesday and moves away from its highest level since 2007, around the 107.80-107.85 region touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 107.25 region, though any meaningful corrective decline still seems elusive.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) is pressured by the less hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes, which pointed to the risk of a sharp slowdown in the labour market. Apart from this, China's economic woes further undermine the China-proxy Aussie and exert downward pressure on the AUD/JPY cross. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), so far, has failed to provide any cues about the timing of the next rate increase, which continues to weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY) and should lend some support to spot prices.

    From a technical perspective, the intraday downtick could be solely attributed to some profit-taking amid extremely overbought oscillators on the daily chart. Any subsequent decline, however, is likely to find decent support and attract fresh buyers near the 107.00 round-figure mark. This, in turn, could limit the downside for the AUD/JPY cross near the 106.60 support, which now seems to act as a pivotal point. A convincing break below the latter might prompt some long-unwinding trade and drag spot prices to the 106.00 mark.

    On the flip side, the 107.80-107.85 region, or the multi-year peak touched on Monday, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 108.00 mark. Some follow-through buying will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of the recent strong move-up witnessed over the past two months or so. That said, the technical setup makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or some meaningful corrective decline before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move.

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    RBA FAQs

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

    While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

    Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

    Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

    Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

     

  • 28.06.2024 20:58
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls persist, pair firmly above 107.00
    • AUD/JPY extends its gains, reaching new highs past 107.00 on Friday.
    • Indicators hint at possible downward correction due to overbought conditions.

    On Friday, the AUD/JPY pair continued its uptrend, achieving new highs beyond 107.00, surpassing yet again its 2013 high levels.

    On a daily scale, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the AUDJPY has spiked to 74 from 65 last Thursday. This sharp increase signals a strengthening bullish momentum but simultaneously places the pair in an overbought position, which might incite a downward correction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a continuation of the rising green bars, indicating that the bullish momentum remains strong however an adjustment might be on the horizon due to overbought conditions.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    On the broader outlook, the AUD/JPY pair demonstrates persistent bullish trends, which is reinforced by its position above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, traders should monitor the pair for potential corrections, given the more pronounced indicators for overbought conditions.

    If the pair encounters a correction driving it below the 107.00 level, followed by the 106.00 level, it may find new support lines. Thus, the 104.90 (20-day SMA) level might serve as a potential support line. Meanwhile, buyers will explore uncharted territory should the pair persist in its current trend and surpass the 107.50 level.

     

  • 24.06.2024 21:25
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Hits 17-year high above 106.00 on JPY weakness
    • AUD/JPY hits a 17-year peak at 106.37, following the BoJ's decision to maintain interest rates.
    • Technicals indicate a strong uptrend with RSI in bullish territory; upcoming resistance at 106.50 and 107.00.
    • Support levels include Tenkan-Sen at 104.98, Senkou Span A at 104.73, and Kijun-Sen at 104.49.

    The Australian Dollar surged to a new 17-year high of 106.37 against the Japanese Yen as the Bank of Japan failed to increase interest rates on its latest monetary policy decision, which weighed on the Japanese currency. Therefore, the AUD/JPY rallied higher and traded at 106.22, up 0.16%.

    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The AUD/JPY cross-pair uptrend remains intact, with the pair breaching the previous year-to-date (YTD) high of 104.94, which opened the door to test 105.00 and beyond. Even though momentum favors buyers with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in bullish territory, downside risks remain due to verbal intervention by Japanese authorities.

    If the JPY continued to depreciate steadily, that could pave the way for further gains. The next resistance would be the 106.50, ahead of 107.00. UP next would be the October 2007 peak at 107.86.

    Conversely, if the cross-pair extends its losses past 106.00, the first support would be the Tenkan-Sen at 104.98, followed by the Senkou Span A at 104.73. Once cleared, the bull’s last line of defense would be the Kijun-Sen at 104.49.

    AUD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    AUD/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 106.26
    Today Daily Change 0.12
    Today Daily Change % 0.11
    Today daily open 106.14
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 104.35
    Daily SMA50 102.95
    Daily SMA100 100.64
    Daily SMA200 98.49
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 106.16
    Previous Daily Low 105.47
    Previous Weekly High 106.16
    Previous Weekly Low 103.59
    Previous Monthly High 104.87
    Previous Monthly Low 99.93
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 105.9
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 105.73
    Daily Pivot Point S1 105.69
    Daily Pivot Point S2 105.23
    Daily Pivot Point S3 105
    Daily Pivot Point R1 106.38
    Daily Pivot Point R2 106.62
    Daily Pivot Point R3 107.07

     

     

  • 20.06.2024 19:51
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Strong bullish momentum pushes pair to fresh cycle highs
    • AUD/JPY continues its rally, reaching fresh cycle highs around 105.70 on Thursday.
    • Daily RSI and MACD stand deep in positive terrain.
    • Indicators point towards more room for additional gains.

    During Thursday's session, the AUD/JPY pair maintained its uptrend, achieving new cycle highs around 105.70, its the highest point reached since 2013. There has been a clear consolidation around the 104.00 level in the last sessions, and as the sellers failed to make a significant move, buyers stepped in.

    On a daily scale, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the AUDJPY has risen to 68, up from 63 recorded on Wednesday. This increase suggests bullish momentum continues to gain strength. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) marker persists in showing rising green bars, indicating the bullish momentum is far from plateauing.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    In summary, the AUD/JPY pair's robust showing on Thursday endorses a broader bullish outlook, with the intensity of the trend validated by the pair's position above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Looking forward, traders can expect the pair to sustain its uptrend, potentially reaching into the 105.80-106.00 range, as current indicators do not suggest over-extended movements and hence provide space for subsequent gains.

    On the off chance that the pair falls below the support level set at 105.00, followed by the 104.15 level (20-day SMA), it would likely seek new support thresholds. As such, the 102.50 and 100.35 levels may serve as potential support lines.

     

    AUD/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 105.78
    Today Daily Change 0.29
    Today Daily Change % 0.27
    Today daily open 105.49
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 104.14
    Daily SMA50 102.7
    Daily SMA100 100.45
    Daily SMA200 98.38
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 105.5
    Previous Daily Low 105.04
    Previous Weekly High 104.8
    Previous Weekly Low 103.08
    Previous Monthly High 104.87
    Previous Monthly Low 99.93
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 105.33
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 105.22
    Daily Pivot Point S1 105.19
    Daily Pivot Point S2 104.89
    Daily Pivot Point S3 104.74
    Daily Pivot Point R1 105.65
    Daily Pivot Point R2 105.8
    Daily Pivot Point R3 106.1

     

     

  • 18.06.2024 19:41
    AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls propels pair near 105.00
    • AUD/JPY got propelled near 105.00 on Tuesday, driven by the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA's hawkish hold.
    • Tusaday's move confirms a positive short-term outlook.
    • Fundamentals may have driven the pair out of the consolidation phase seen in the last sessions.

    In Tuesday's session, the AUD/JPY pair received a boost following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s hawkish hold, with the momentum propelling the pair towards the 105.00 level. In the last sessions, price action saw a consolidation above the 104.00 level, which supported the pair now to retest cycle highs.

    On the daily scale, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62, indicating rising buying pressure and shifting into bullish territory. However, it is important to observe that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is below the signal line, hinting that there is still bearish activity. Traders will need to keep an eye on a possible crossover in the upcoming sessions to confirm the continuation of Tuesday's bullish movements.

    AUD/JPY daily chart

    To sum it up, the AUD/JPY pair's solid performance on Tuesday supplements a broader bullish trend, with the trend's strength substantiated by the pair's value above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs. In the next sessions, traders can expect the pair to continue its uptrend movement within the 105.00-106.00 range as bulls have terrain to continue climbing with indicators far from overbought conditions.

    On the flip side, if there is a breach below the established support level at 104.00 (20-day SMA), the pair may be prompted to find new support levels. The 102.50 and 100.35 levels are hence seen as the next potential support lines.

    AUD/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 105
    Today Daily Change 0.69
    Today Daily Change % 0.66
    Today daily open 104.31
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 104.01
    Daily SMA50 102.49
    Daily SMA100 100.28
    Daily SMA200 98.28
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 104.36
    Previous Daily Low 103.59
    Previous Weekly High 104.8
    Previous Weekly Low 103.08
    Previous Monthly High 104.87
    Previous Monthly Low 99.93
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 104.07
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 103.88
    Daily Pivot Point S1 103.81
    Daily Pivot Point S2 103.32
    Daily Pivot Point S3 103.05
    Daily Pivot Point R1 104.58
    Daily Pivot Point R2 104.85
    Daily Pivot Point R3 105.34

     

     

  • 18.06.2024 04:37
    AUD/JPY remains on the defensive above 104.00, moves little after RBA decision
    • AUD/JPY fails to capitalize on the overnight goodish rebound from a multi-day low.
    • BoJ Governor Ueda's hawkish remarks underpin the JPY and cap gains for the cross.
    • The RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged fails to provide any impetus.

    The AUD/JPY cross attracts some sellers following an Asian session uptick on Tuesday and stalls the overnight bounce from the 103.60-103.55 area or a multi-day low. Spot prices remain on the defensive after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its policy decision and currently trade just above the 104.00 round-figure mark. 

    As was widely anticipated, the RBA decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at a 12-year high level of 4.35% for the fifth successive meeting in June and retained its hawkish stance. The central bank, meanwhile, is expected to leave the door open for a rate hike this year in the wake of still sticky inflation, which, in turn, could act as a tailwind for the Australian Dollar (AUD) and lend support to the AUD/JPY cross.

    Data released from China on Monday underlined a bumpy recovery in the world's second-largest economy. This overshadows the RBA's higher for longer interest rate narrative and undermines antipodean currencies, including the Aussie. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) benefits from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks, saying that the central bank could raise rates in July depending on economic data

    Apart from this, speculations that Japanese authorities might intervene to prop up the domestic currency further contribute to the AUD/JPY pair's downtick. That said, a generally positive risk tone, which tends to dent demand for the safe-haven JPY and lend support to the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar (AUD), should help limit any meaningful downfall ahead of the RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference at 05:30 GMT.

    AUD/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 104.13
    Today Daily Change -0.18
    Today Daily Change % -0.17
    Today daily open 104.31
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 104.01
    Daily SMA50 102.49
    Daily SMA100 100.28
    Daily SMA200 98.28
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 104.36
    Previous Daily Low 103.59
    Previous Weekly High 104.8
    Previous Weekly Low 103.08
    Previous Monthly High 104.87
    Previous Monthly Low 99.93
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 104.07
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 103.88
    Daily Pivot Point S1 103.81
    Daily Pivot Point S2 103.32
    Daily Pivot Point S3 103.05
    Daily Pivot Point R1 104.58
    Daily Pivot Point R2 104.85
    Daily Pivot Point R3 105.34

     

     

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