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AUD/NZD extends its gains for the second successive session, trading around 1.1170 during Asian hours. The upside is driven by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) decision to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps) from 4.25% to 3.75%, following the conclusion of the February policy meeting on Wednesday. The decision aligned with the market expectations.
Traders will closely watch RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference for insights into the central bank’s future policy stance. Any dovish signals could add to selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), providing support for the AUD/NZD cross.
However, the upside of the AUD/NZD cross could be restrained as the Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday. The central bank lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.10% on Tuesday, as widely expected, marking the first rate cut in four years.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock addressed the media after the policy meeting, stating that it’s clear high interest rates have had an impact. However, Bullock emphasized that it's too early to declare victory over inflation. She also noted the unexpectedly strong jobs market and clarified that the market's expectation of further rate cuts is not guaranteed.
Australia's Wage Price Index rose by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024, below the expected 0.8% increase and the previous quarter's 0.9% rise. On an annual basis, the index grew by 3.2%, slowing from a revised 3.6% in the prior quarter and matching forecasts. This marked the slowest wage growth since Q3 2022.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
Read more.Last release: Wed Feb 19, 2025 01:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 3.75%
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 4.25%
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference.
The AUD/NZD cross stages a goodish rebound from over a one-week low, around the 1.1075 region touched during the Asian session on Tuesday, and gains follow-through traction after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its policy decision. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1130 area, up nearly 0.50% for the day, and remain close to a multi-month peak touched last week.
The RBA board members decided to lower the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) from 4.35% to 4.1% at the end of the February policy meeting. This was the first RBA rate cut since November 2020 and was fully priced in the market. In the absence of fresh dovish signals, the Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens across the board and turns out to be a key factor that provides a goodish lift to the AUD/NZD cross.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), on the other hand, continues with its relative underperformance amid rising bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will deliver a third supersized rate cut later this month. This further contributes to the strong bid tone surrounding the AUD/NZD cross. Traders now look to the RBA's post-meeting presser, where comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock might influence the AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.
Read more.Last release: Tue Feb 18, 2025 03:30
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 4.1%
Consensus: 4.1%
Previous: 4.35%
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
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