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CFD Trading Rate Australian Dollar vs New Zealand Dollar (AUDNZD)

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  • 17.07.2024 02:33
    AUD/NZD sticks to post-New Zealand CPI losses near weekly low, lacks follow-through
    • AUD/NZD retreats sharply from a nearly two-year peak touched earlier this Wednesday.
    • The softer New Zealand CPI print brings forward RBNZ rate cut bets and might cap gains.
    • Speculations that RBA could hike rates again should contribute to limiting the downside.

    The AUD/NZD cross witnessed an intraday turnaround from the 1.1150 region, or its highest level since October 2022 touched during the Asian session on Wednesday and drops to the lower end of the weekly range in the last hour. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1085-1.1080 region, down nearly 0.40% for the day.

    Data published by Statistics New Zealand earlier this Wednesday showed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% QoQ compared to 0.6% in the previous quarter and analysts' forecasts. Moreover, the annual CPI inflation rate fell from the 4% YoY rate in the March 2024 quarter to its lowest rate in three years, at 3.3% in Q2. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), however, rallied across the board following the release of softer data and turns out to be a key factor exerting heavy downward pressure on the AUD/NZD cross. 

    Meanwhile, the strong intraday move lacks any obvious fundamental catalyst and could be solely attributed to some NZD short-covering and is more likely to remain limited amid bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will cut interest rates soon. Furthermore, expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could raise interest rates again could lend some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD) and help limit the downside for the AUD/NZD cross. This, in turn, warrants some caution before confirming that spot prices have topped out.

    Moving ahead, investors now look forward to the release of monthly employment details from Australia, due during the Asian session on Thursday. In the meantime, hopes for additional stimulus from China might act as a tailwind for the China-proxy Aussie and the AUD/NZD cross. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any meaningful corrective decline for the currency pair.

    Economic Indicator

    Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

    Read more.

    Last release: Thu Jul 11, 2024 12:30

    Frequency: Monthly

    Actual: 3%

    Consensus: 3.1%

    Previous: 3.3%

    Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

    The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

     

  • 10.07.2024 19:50
    AUD/NZD rallies as RBNZ signals dovish shift
    • AUD/NZD witnessed a significant rise to 1.1090, to multi-year highs.
    • The RBNZ kept rates steady at 5.5%, signaling a willingness to ease sooner rather than later.
    • RBA and RBNZ policy discrepancies might favor the AUD.

    On Wednesday, the AUD/NZD rose to a fresh high since 2022, in reaction to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision.

    The RBNZ, as expected, kept the Official Cash Rate (OCR) anchored at 5.50%, but hinted at potential rate cuts in the near future. The RBNZ highlighted the signs of easing inflation persistence and the expectation of headline CPI returning to target in the second half of the year. Moreover, it addressed the impact of tight policy measures on the economy and deviated from the May 22 meeting where Governor Orr confessed that a hike was a "real consideration".

    Following the decision, a rate cut is now priced in October, with the market pricing in nearly 60% odds of an earlier cut in August. On the other hand, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) seriously considers a hike, the pair may see more upside.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    In the short-term, the AUD/NZD maintains a bullish momentum due to the recent rally but overbought conditions seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicate that a correction may be imminent.

    Support levels have moved and now stand at 1.1050, 1.1000, and 1.0950. The next challenge for buyers is to reach and retain the 1.1100 target point.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

  • 10.07.2024 10:05
    AUD/NZD: A sustained move beyond 1.1100 possible – Societe Generale

    AUD/NZD eyes a move beyond 1.1100 and could inch higher towards next projections of 1.1175 and 1.1250, Societe Generale FX strategists note.

    A sustained break above 1.1100 is possible

    “AUD/NZD has experienced an accelerated up move recently and is now challenging the upper band of the range within which it has evolved since last year at 1.1100; this is also the 61.8% retracement from 2022.”

    “Daily MACD is within positive territory and above its trigger line denoting prevalence of upward momentum.”

    “A move beyond 1.1100 will confirm a breakout from a multi-month range. In such a scenario, AUD/NZD could inch higher towards next projections of 1.1175 and 1.1250. The low achieved earlier this week near 1.0990/1.0925 is important support near term.”

  • 10.07.2024 02:41
    AUD/NZD jumps above 1.1050 as RBNZ leaves its cash rate on hold at 5.5%
    • AUD/NZD gains momentum around 1.1075 in Wednesday’s Asian session, up 0.63% on the day. 
    • The RBNZ  maintained the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% at its July meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. 
    • The RBA’s hawkish stance lifts the Aussie against the Kiwi. 

    The AUD/NZD cross attracts some buyers near 1.1075 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The cross gains momentum after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its cash rate unchanged in its July monetary policy meeting. 

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges lower as the RBNZ decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.50%, as widely expected by the markets. This marked the eighth consecutive meeting with no change in rates. According to the Minutes of the RBNZ interest rate meeting, the board notes a risk that domestically driven inflation could be more persistent in the near term. The central bank expected headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3 % target range in the second half of this year. Meanwhile, New Zealand swaps imply 25 basis points (bps) of RBNZ rate cuts for October versus 16 bps before the RBNZ statement. 

    Elsewhere, the weaker Chinese economic data exerts some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi. China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% YoY in June, compared to a rise of 0.3% in May, below the consensus of 0.4%. On a monthly basis, the CPI inflation arrived at -0.2% MoM in June versus the previous reading of a 0.1% decline, worse than the -0.1% expected.

    On the Aussie front, the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) provides some support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). The recent hotter inflation data spurred the expectation that the RBA would raise a 25 bps rate in the September 24 meeting. 

    RBNZ FAQs

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.

    Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.

    In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.

     

  • 09.07.2024 20:57
    AUD/NZD sees slight uptick ahead of RBNZ decision, hawkish RBA
    • AUD/NZD saw a mild increase in Tuesday's session but cleared most of its gains.
    • RBNZ decision comes up later in the Asian session with a hold priced in.
    • The RBA maintains its hawkish tone, promoting a more favorable outlook for the Aussie.

    After a climb to the highest level since early May, the AUD/NZD buyers have cleared some gains and the pair faces some consolidation. The market awaits the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision later on Tuesday where the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is expected to be maintained at 5.50%.

    Despite markets betting on a 60% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year, as suggested in the RBNZ’s May rate path projection, the disinflationary process brought on by New Zealand’s sluggish growth outlook leans the market towards an early rate cut in October, with a November cut fully priced in. In that sense, the Monetary Policy Statement for any possible insights will be closely looked at.

    On the other hand, in Australia, the latest hot inflation data has increased market expectations, suggesting high chances of a 25 bps rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)'s September 24 meeting, which rises to nearly 50% by November 5. Other than the RBNZ decision there won’t be any significant highlight the bank’s decision will dictate the pace of the pair for the rest of the week.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    Short-term, the AUD/NZD maintains a bullish stance clarified by the recent gains. However, nearing overbought conditions suggests the potential for a correction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) both indicate that a correction may be looming as buyers lose steam.

    Support levels continue to lie at 1.1000, 1.0950, and 1.0930. The 1.1000 target remains the next task for the buyers to retain.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

  • 08.07.2024 21:43
    AUD/NZD sees slight uptick ahead of RBNZ decision, hawkish RBA
    • AUD/NZD opened the week mildly higher at around 1.0990.
    • New Zealand's struggling economy still causes worries, as the market awaits the RBNZ meeting later this week.
    • The RBA continues its hawkish tone, creating a favorable outlook for the Aussie.

    Following a climb to the highest level since mid-May and gaining more than 1.20% since late June, the AUD/NZD buyers stepped back to secure some gains but the pair is poised for some consolidation. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)'s Wednesday meetup and while New Zealand's economic performance still shows signs of struggle, fundamentals lean in favor of the Aussie.

    In New Zealand, the focus is on ongoing concerns such as the sluggish economic outlook and the coming meetings of the RBNZ on Wednesday where a hold is priced in. Other mid-tier data this week include the Consumer Inflation expectations and NZ PMIs on Wednesday and Thursday which might fuel moves on the NZD dynamics.

    Despite markets betting on a 60% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year, as shown in the RBNZ’s May rate path projection, the market strongly anticipates a November rate cut. Some even foresee an earlier cut in October, considering New Zealand's slowing growth.

    Meanwhile, in Australia, the latest hot inflation data has ramped up market expectations. The market now suggests an almost 40% chance of a 25 bps rate hike on the September 24 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), rising to around 50% by November 5. The RBA recently has been contemplating raising rates, thus benefiting the Aussie.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    Short-term, the AUD/NZD maintains a bullish stance, though the looming potential for a correction as indicated by nearing overbought conditions warrants caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to 70 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to display rising green bars on the chart.

    Support levels lie at 1.0950, 1.0930, and 1.0900. Buyers will be eyeing 1.1000 as the next resistance target. A correction might be on the horizon, but as long as the AUD/NZD stays above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), the outlook remains favorable.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

  • 02.07.2024 20:20
    AUD/NZD rides highs on weak NZ economic outlook and hawkish RBA
    • Buyers steer AUD/NZD upwards, raising the pair near 1.0990 and then stabilizing at 1.0970.
    • Firms in New Zealand expect a deterioration of the economic outlook according to the NZIER Survey of Business Opinion.
    • RBA minutes from the June meeting confirmed a hawkish stance from the RBA.

    The AUD/NZD buyers took the initiative on Tuesday. The steady stance by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) seen in the latest minutes has raised market speculation for an interest rate hike in the August meeting, providing impetus to the pair's upward movement. The gloomy outlook in New Zealand is also pushing the pair upwards.

    In New Zealand, the market is focused on the Q2 NZIER Survey of Business Opinion (QSBO) released this Tuesday. The survey showed that a great portion of the firm's survey expects a slowdown in the New Zealand economy over the coming year. Regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, contrary to market expectations for a cut in November, the bank has its first rate cut planned for Q3 2025. However, if the economy shows more signs of weakening, the bank might consider earlier reductions.

    Meanwhile, in Australia, the RBA's June meeting minutes underscored the bank's hawkish stance. Key reasons for maintaining the policy rate included uncertainty around consumption data and clear financial stress on many households and reaffirmed its intention of doing anything necessary to bring inflation down which boosted bets on a hike. The upcoming May Retail Sales data, due this Wednesday, is expected to further tilt the scale in favor of an RBA policy rate hike. In light of this and the stubbornly high inflation, markets now see nearly 40% odds of a rate hike on September 24, rising to nearly 50% for November 5.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    Short-term, the technical view of AUD/NZD remains bullish, but indicators nearing overbought conditions may indicate that a correction looms. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching 70 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing rising green bars.

    On the downside, supports are lining up at 1.0950, 1.0930, and 1.0900. The 1.1000 target is the next resistance for the purchasers. The risks of a potential correction seem to loom, but as long as the cross maintains its position above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) the outlook will remain positive.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

  • 25.06.2024 19:32
    AUD/NZD sees the tide turn, awaiting key Australian and New Zealand data
    • Sellers take control of AUD/NZD, pushing the pair to 1.0860 and clearing the recent gains.
    • New Zealand is set to release June ANZ consumer and business surveys on Wednesday, with keen attention from the market.
    • CPI data from Australia due this Wednesday, continues to reveal Australia's direction.

    The AUD/NZD sellers stepped in on Tuesday, wiping all the daily gains and pushing the cross to 1.0860. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moves are keenly awaited by investors, who await guidance.

    In New Zealand, eyes are on the June ANZ consumer and business surveys to be released this Wednesday. The RBNZ plans its first rate cut for Q3 2025, which contradicts the market's expectations of a cut in November but incoming data will dictate the pace of the bets. In case New Zealand’s economy sees more signs of weakness the bank might consider sooner cuts.

    In Australia, the Westpac Consumer Confidence data drew attention with a 1.7% rise to 83.6 in June from 82.2 in May- marking the first increase since February. The key data for the week would, however, come through with the release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday.

    The swaps market now sees less than 25% odds of a rate cut by December 2024, which intensifies to around 65% in February 2025. Despite the headline expectation to climb by two ticks to a five-month peak at 3.8% year on year, the RBA remains patient, expecting a considerable period before inflation sustainably sits within the 2-3% target range. The outcome of inflation figures might see significant volatility in the Aussie’s price dynamics.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    In the near term, the technical outlook for AUD/NZD appears positive, despite indicators flattening and hinting at a potential consolidation of the recent 0.80% gains achieved last week. This is supported by the cross maintaining its position above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Furthermore, the 20-day SMA completed a bullish crossover with the 100-day SMA which reinforces the positive outlook.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

  • 24.06.2024 20:44
    AUD/NZD recovers ground, eyeing critical Australian and New Zealand data
    • On Monday, the AUD/NZD paused its selling trend, marking a two-day losing streak at the end of last week.
    • New Zealand's June ANZ consumer and business surveys are eyed in this Wednesday's Asian session.
    • Australia's AUD continues to be driven by anticipations of the upcoming CPI data, also due this Wednesday.

    The AUD/NZD sellers took a Monday pause after the tally of a two-day losing streak at the end of last week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moves are awaited by investors, who continue to place their bets.

    In New Zealand, the June ANZ consumer and business surveys are in focus this Wednesday. The data for May showed a clear weakening in activity and easing inflation pressure, with the business confidence dropping to 11.20. Moreover, the consumer confidence index advanced to 84.90 in May but stayed at historically weak levels. Despite inflation receding slowly in the New Zealand services sector and some signs of fragility in the overall economy, the RBNZ is delaying its first rate cut for Q3 2025, contradicting the market which fully expects a cut this November.

    For Australia, the spotlight turns to the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released this Wednesday. Headline inflation is expected to leap by two ticks to a five-month peak of 3.8% year on year. As for now, the swaps market gave up nearly all rate cut hopes in 2024 and approximates a 70% likelihood of the initial cut in February 2025. In the meantime, the RBA remains patient, maintaining that a considerable period will elapse before inflation sustainably sits within the 2-3% target range. It's worth noticing that Governor Bullock noted last week that the bank will do whatever is necessary to tackle inflation and this hawkish stance might cushion the Aussie.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    In the near term, the technical outlook for the AUD/NZD cross remains positive, recording a gain of nearly 0.80% in the previous fortnight. While the indicators may have flattened, the overall scenario suggests that the bearish spell might be taking a break.

    However, the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) position remains like previously mentioned, capping the upward potential.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

    AUD/NZD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.0867
    Today Daily Change 0.0013
    Today Daily Change % 0.12
    Today daily open 1.0854
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.0803
    Daily SMA50 1.0885
    Daily SMA100 1.0822
    Daily SMA200 1.0802
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.0888
    Previous Daily Low 1.0849
    Previous Weekly High 1.0892
    Previous Weekly Low 1.0769
    Previous Monthly High 1.1028
    Previous Monthly Low 1.0806
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0864
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0873
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.084
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0825
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0801
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0878
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0902
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0917

     

     

  • 19.06.2024 20:18
    AUD/NZD tallies a four-day winning streak, eyes on New Zealand key data
    • On Wednesday, the AUD/NZD extended its gains and is up by 1% in the last four sessions.
    • New Zealand's Q1 GDP figures will be closely looked at on Thursday’s Asian session.
    • Australia's AUD gained momentum post-RBA's hawkish hold with the cash rate maintained at 4.35%.

    The AUD/NZD extended its winning streak on Wednesday, to a four-consecutive day rise which saw the pair rise by nearly 1%. Investors are anticipating the upcoming Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revisions from Q1 from New Zealand while continuing to process the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent decision.

    In New Zealand, recent data signaled a sharp decline in the country's services sector in May. Also, GDP figures showed two consecutive quarters of negative growth, indicating a recession. This has led to heightened speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will soon resort to reducing interest rates, with a 25 bps cut expected at the November meeting.

    On the Australian front, the AUD found strength following the RBA's hawkish hold. As per expectations, the cash rate remained at 4.35%, with no discussions related to a rate cut. Governor Bullock confirmed that the option of raising rates was deliberated upon during the meeting. Furthermore, the RBA showcased concerns about the inflation scenario and added that they would undertake the required measures to bring inflation back within the target range. In that sense, as the RBA and RBNZ policies diverge, there might be further upside for the cross in place.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    The technical outlook for AUD/NZD appears positive in the short term, with the pair registering a four-day winning streak. In those sessions, indicators recovered with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumping back above 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints rising green bars.

    However, as the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed below the 100 and 200-day SMAs, the upward potential may be capped.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

  • 05.06.2024 18:28
    AUD/NZD tumbles after Australian GDP data reaches lows since March
    • On Wednesday, the AUD/NZD dropped significantly, reaching its lowest level since March around 1.0740.
    • Australian Q1 GDP growth was reported slightly below expectations, signaling a slowdown in the economy.
    • The RBA is set to keep an eye on inflation, which might be the primary focus for monetary policy decisions.

    The AUD/NZD continued its bearish trajectory on Wednesday, declining to its lowest level since March, registered at around 1.0740 amid the newly released Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q1 data.

    In Australia, reported Q1 GDP figures came in slightly below market anticipations, with sluggish growth of 0.1% QoQ below the predicted 0.2%, indicating a moderated pace in the economy. Also, the YoY rate landed at 1.1%, lower than the projected figure and down from the corrected 1.6% in Q4 of the previous year. Furthermore, recent services and composite PMI readings for May appeared softer than preliminary estimates.

    Despite these developments, the RBA, accentuated by Governor Michele Bullock, is likely to maintain its attention on bringing inflation back to its target. In that sense, future monetary policy decisions are probably more influenced by this goal rather than short-term economic oscillations. While tightening monetary policy was a point of discussion in the last meeting, investors took those off the table those odds and for the next meeting in June are just seeing around 30% odds of a cut.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    The technical outlook has further deepened into bearish territory. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) showed oversold conditions, indicating a potential upward correction may be on the horizon. This is further supported by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), which shows a reduction in red bars, confirming the potential of an uptrend.

    As the bearish trend persists with the pair below its 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and in multi-month lows, the focus will be whether the downward trend continues or an upward correction happens.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

    AUD/NZD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.0739
    Today Daily Change -0.0026
    Today Daily Change % -0.24
    Today daily open 1.0765
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.0885
    Daily SMA50 1.0915
    Daily SMA100 1.0818
    Daily SMA200 1.0807
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.0812
    Previous Daily Low 1.0756
    Previous Weekly High 1.0852
    Previous Weekly Low 1.0806
    Previous Monthly High 1.1028
    Previous Monthly Low 1.0806
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0778
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0791
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0744
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0722
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0687
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.08
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0834
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0856

     

     

  • 03.06.2024 18:49
    AUD/NZD loses key levels on quiet Monday, focus on Australian GDP data
    • On Monday, the AUD/NZD dipped below key technical levels, with the 100 and 200-day SMAs breached.
    • Current focus is on GDP data from Australia, expected to remain steady.
    • New Zealand’s manufacturing activity Q1 data on Friday will be closely watched.

    The AUD/NZD echoed a bearish technical outlook on Monday, falling below key levels towards 1.0805 as markets await mid-tier data from both nations on a quiet economic schedule at the beginning of the week.

    In Australia, markets will anticipate Wednesday's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. A steady growth of 0.2% QoQ is expected, while a 1.2% YoY rate is projected, a slight dip compared to the Q4 YoY rate of 1.5%. That being said, the AUD’s losses may be limited, thanks to the strong Australian Q1 CPI inflation data and another robust April reading, which hints at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) being one of the last G10 central banks to cut rates in this cycle.

    On the other hand, New Zealand will focus on releasing its Q1 manufacturing activity data on Friday. Should the manufacturing output reflect the same upward trend, it might further slow the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s RBNZ's rate cuts. The market now forecasts a 75% probability of the first cut happening as late as November.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    Technical indicators have turned bearish. On Monday, sellers oversaw the breaching of the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The RSI heads towards the oversold territory, echoing a similar sentiment, while the MACD histogram continues to confirm this downward momentum with its persistent formation of red bars.

    Despite the bearish patterns unfolding, the focus will be whether the downward trend can be sustained or if there will be an upward correction as markets continue to assess the upcoming economic data releases.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

  • 30.05.2024 19:00
    AUD/NZD gains ground on robust Australian data, markets digest NZ tax relief
    • The AUD/NZD rebounded to a high of 1.0840 after dipping to 1.0815 on Wednesday.
    • Strong data from Australia following the report of hot inflation figures reported at the beginning of the week benefited the AUD.
    • New Zealand's newly announced tax cut policy may delay the RBNZ's rate cuts.

    The AUD/NZD was seen trading higher during Thursday's session as markets digested mid-tier Australian data and a fresh fiscal policy from New Zealand.

    In Australia, the robust Q1 business investment and higher-than-expected private capital expenditure figures supported the AUD. On Tuesday, the country reported higher-than-expected inflation figures which coupled with strong economic data may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to turn more hawkish. On Wednesday Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be closely followed.

    Simultaneously, New Zealand's new government announced an NZD 14.7 billion tax cut package for low and middle-income households. A more lax fiscal policy has softened expectations of imminent rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) which could eventually limit the losses for the Kiwi. The odds of a cut in November fell slightly but remain priced at around 70%.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in negative territory, indicating a firm downtrend. The persistent rise of the red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram further solidifies this downward momentum.

    However, as the pair approached oversold territory on Wednesday indicators saw a slight upward correction on Thursday, which is in line with the latest market developments as sellers seem to be taking a breather.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

    AUD/NZD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.0842
    Today Daily Change 0.0031
    Today Daily Change % 0.29
    Today daily open 1.0811
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.0924
    Daily SMA50 1.0921
    Daily SMA100 1.0815
    Daily SMA200 1.0808
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.0849
    Previous Daily Low 1.081
    Previous Weekly High 1.0944
    Previous Weekly Low 1.0819
    Previous Monthly High 1.1012
    Previous Monthly Low 1.0857
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0825
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0834
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0798
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0785
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.076
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0836
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0862
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0875

     

     

  • 29.05.2024 19:45
    AUD/NZD declines following higher inflation figures from Australia and soft ANZ data
    • The AUD/NZD declines to a low of 1.0815 after reaching a high of 1.0850 on Wednesday.
    • Australian high-tier data tempers RBA's dovish expectations, while soft New Zealand data renews RBNZ policy divergence.
    • Following downbeat ANZ data, the market bets over higher odds of an RBNZ rate cut in November.

    The AUD/NZD was seen trading lower during Wednesday's trading session, as markets digest high-tier data from both Australia and New Zealand.

    In Australia, April's Consumer Price Indxe (CPI) came in hot at 3.6% YoY, surpassing the 3.4% expectations and the previous month's 3.5%. This marked the second consecutive month of acceleration and is the highest inflation rate since November. With core inflation remaining sticky above 4%, there are strong signals that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might turn its tone to a more hawkish one.

    Meanwhile, the disappointing ANZ business survey data for May became a focal point in New Zealand. The Own Activity Outlook index dropped to a low of 11.8 from 14.3 in April, hinting towards weaker growth. Recently sticky domestic inflation led to the RBNZ discussing a potential rate increase which led to a significant strengthening of the Kiwi, markets are betting that the first cut will come in November of this year, priced in by 65%.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in negative territory, indicating a robust downtrend. This is consolidated by the rising red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, which confirms the continued downward momentum.

    That being said, as the pair approached oversold terrain, the pair may see a slight upward correction in the next sessions.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

    AUD/NZD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.0816
    Today Daily Change -0.0012
    Today Daily Change % -0.11
    Today daily open 1.0828
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.0934
    Daily SMA50 1.0921
    Daily SMA100 1.0814
    Daily SMA200 1.0808
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.0833
    Previous Daily Low 1.0806
    Previous Weekly High 1.0944
    Previous Weekly Low 1.0819
    Previous Monthly High 1.1012
    Previous Monthly Low 1.0857
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0822
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0816
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0812
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0795
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0785
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0839
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0849
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0866

     

     

  • 28.05.2024 20:24
    AUD/NZD clears daily losses and eye ANZ data
    • AUD/NZD cleared daily losses, reaching 1.0852 during Tuesday's session despite soft Australian data.
    • Following weak Australian data, the markets anticipate dovish moves from the RBA which may weigh on the Aussie.
    • Investors await New Zealand's May ANZ business survey, which could impact the expectations on the next RBNZ policies.

    The AUD/NZD is currently trading with slight gains, as market participants digest recent figures from Australia and look forward to ANZ data from New Zealand.

    In Australia, Retail sales for April came in slightly under expectations at 0.1% MoM, following a 0.4% decline in March. This lackluster performance could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) policies and might prompt it to take a more dovish approach, taking off the table a rate hike after its New Zealander peer, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) revived that discussion recently.

    On the Kiwis, the anticipation in New Zealand is centered on the ANZ business survey data for May to be released during the upcoming Asian session. Depending on the results, this could sway the betting on the RBNZ's upcoming monetary policy decisions. While officials have hinted at a potential rate cut, market predictions continue to bet on a first cut to occur in Q4.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) maintains its position in negative territory. This is fortified by the red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, confirming a continued downward momentum.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

    Nevertheless, the pair trades above its 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), suggesting a medium-to-long uptrend. However, with the AUD/NZD standing below the 20-day SMA, it highlights a dominance for the short-term.

     

    AUD/NZD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.0826
    Today Daily Change 0.0003
    Today Daily Change % 0.03
    Today daily open 1.0823
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.0942
    Daily SMA50 1.0921
    Daily SMA100 1.0813
    Daily SMA200 1.0808
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.0841
    Previous Daily Low 1.0817
    Previous Weekly High 1.0944
    Previous Weekly Low 1.0819
    Previous Monthly High 1.1012
    Previous Monthly Low 1.0857
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0826
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0832
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0813
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0803
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0789
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0837
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0851
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0861

     

     

  • 27.05.2024 19:19
    AUD/NZD experiences a slight decline as markets await key data
    • AUD/NZD dips mildly to 1.0821 during Monday's session.
    • Markets are eyeing Australia's April CPI and Retail Sales updates this week.
    • Investors will eye New Zealand's May ANZ business survey, which is expected to reveal a slowdown in activity.

    The AUD/NZD is presently trading with mild fluctuations, expecting key figures from Australia and New Zealand along the week.

    On the Australian side, the focus is primarily on the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail sales data. The CPI is projected to register a slight decrease, dropping to 3.4% YoY while Retail Sales are expected to recover somewhat. The outcome of the data might shape the expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which has lately advocated for a cautious stance.

    On the other hand, the attention in New Zealand is directed towards the ANZ business survey data for May on Tuesday. The outcome might also shape the bets on the next Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)'s monetary policy decisions. While the bank suggested a potential rate hike, market prediction indicates an opposing view, leaning towards a first rate cut in November.

    AUD/NZD technical analysis

    In the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits within negative territory. Despite an uptick in the latest reading to 30, the pair remains pressured, as the positive momentum observed earlier in the week has considerably waned. The negative trend, as suggested by the RSI, is further confirmed by the rising red bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, affirming the downside momentum.

    AUD/NZD daily chart

    On a positive note, the pair currently trades above its 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), indicating potential medium-to-long-term upward momentum. However, the AUD/NZD's positioning below the 20-day SMA highlights the near-term volatility anticipated.

    AUD/NZD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.0824
    Today Daily Change -0.0005
    Today Daily Change % -0.05
    Today daily open 1.0829
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.095
    Daily SMA50 1.092
    Daily SMA100 1.0813
    Daily SMA200 1.0808
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.0837
    Previous Daily Low 1.0819
    Previous Weekly High 1.0944
    Previous Weekly Low 1.0819
    Previous Monthly High 1.1012
    Previous Monthly Low 1.0857
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0826
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.083
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.082
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0811
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0802
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0838
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0846
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0856

     

     

  • 07.05.2024 05:34
    AUD/NZD holds below 1.1000 following RBA rate decision
    • AUD/NZD loses traction 1.0990 in Tuesday’s early European session.
    • The RBA held the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% at its May meeting on Tuesday, as widely anticipated. 
    • The RBNZ is expected to delay any shift toward monetary easing until 2025 due to elevated inflation pressures in Q1.

    The AUD/NZD cross attracts some sellers near 1.0990 on Tuesday during the early European session. The cross edges lower after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% at its May meeting, but offered a less hawkish tone than the March statement. Investors await the RBA Press Conference for fresh catalysts. 

    As widely expected, the Australian central bank left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% for the fourth meeting in a row on Tuesday. The statement noted that inflation in Australia is easing, but remains high. Therefore, the board expects that it will be some time yet before inflation will move sustainably within the target range. The RBA further stated that the economic outlook remains uncertain and that the central bank will not rule anything in or out on future decisions. The Australian Dollar (AUD) faces some selling pressure following the monetary policy meeting as the RBA did not deliver as much hawkish bias as the market expected. 

    On the Kiwi front, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its cash rate unchanged at 5.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting last month and emphasized that restrictive monetary policy was necessary to further reduce capacity pressure and bring down inflation. The RBNZ also signaled its intention to delay any shift toward monetary easing until 2025 due to elevated inflation pressures in the first quarter. This, in turn, might provide some support to the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and might cap the upside of the AUD/NZD cross. 

    AUD/NZD

    Overview
    Today last price 1.0996
    Today Daily Change -0.0030
    Today Daily Change % -0.27
    Today daily open 1.1026
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 1.0942
    Daily SMA50 1.0858
    Daily SMA100 1.0793
    Daily SMA200 1.0799
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 1.1027
    Previous Daily Low 1.0989
    Previous Weekly High 1.1028
    Previous Weekly Low 1.0958
    Previous Monthly High 1.1012
    Previous Monthly Low 1.0857
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.1013
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.1004
    Daily Pivot Point S1 1.1001
    Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0976
    Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0963
    Daily Pivot Point R1 1.1039
    Daily Pivot Point R2 1.1052
    Daily Pivot Point R3 1.1077

     

     

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