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CFD Trading Rate New Zealand Dollar vs Japanese Yen (NZDJPY)
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04.03.2025 23:06NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Bounces off 7-month low, but downtrend remains
- NZD/JPY must break above 85.03 (Tenkan-Sen) to extend recovery.
- Key resistance levels lie at 85.40 (Senkou Span A) and 85.66 (Kijun-Sen).
- Failure to hold above 84.00 could reopen the path toward YTD low of 83.15.
The NZD/JPY recovered some ground on Tuesday after dropping to a seven-month low of 83.15. The pair finished the session near 84.90 for gains of over 1%. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades near 85.00, virtually unchanged as the Wednesday Asian session begins.
NZD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Despite posting a bullish candle, the NZD/JPY remains biased downward, with the exchange rate hovering near the Tenkan-Sen at 85.03. A breach of the latter will expose the Senkou Span A at 85.4, immediately followed by the Kijun-Sen at 85.66. The next stop would be Senkou Span B at 86.43 on further strength.
Conversely, if NZD/JPY drops below 84.00, the next support would be the year-to-date (YTD) low of 83.15, followed by the August 5 low of 83.05, before diving to 83.00. A breach of the latter will send the cross sliding to a two-year low near April 27, 2023, a low of 81.63.
NZD/JPY Price Chart – Daily
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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19.02.2025 04:50NZD/JPY struggles to capitalize on bounce from post-RBNZ low, remains below 87.00
- NZD/JPY recovers swiftly after the post-RBNZ slide to a one-week trough.
- A positive risk tone undermines the JPY and also lends support to the cross.
- BoJ rate hike bets help limit further JPY losses and cap gains for spot prices.
The NZD/JPY cross rebounds around 80-85 pips from a one-week trough touched during the Asian session on Wednesday and touches a fresh daily high, around the 87.00 mark in the last hour. Spot prices, however, struggle to capitalize on the move and currently trade near the 86.80 region, up less than 0.20% for the day.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) initially drifted lower after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered the widely expected outsized interest rate cut at the conclusion of the February policy meeting. The immediate market reaction, however, turned out to be short-lived as the central bank signaled that the end of the easing cycle was now not too distant and that further moves would be smaller in size. This, in turn, prompts some short-covering around the NZD/JPY cross.
In fact, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr suggested further cuts of 25 basis points could come in April and May. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and further contributes to the goodish intraday move up. That said, the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates further this year helps limit the downside for the JPY and keeps a lid on any further gains for the NZD/JPY cross.
Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that spot prices have bottomed out and positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from the 85.20 region, or a six-month low touched earlier this month.
Economic Indicator
RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
Read more.Last release: Wed Feb 19, 2025 01:00
Frequency: Irregular
Actual: 3.75%
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 4.25%
Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference.
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13.02.2025 21:41NZD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears tighten grip as rejection at 20-day SMA fuels downside pressure
- NZD/JPY slides to 86.65 on Thursday, marking a continued retreat from recent highs.
- The pair struggles to regain ground after facing rejection at the 20-day SMA, highlighting weak bullish attempts.
- With fading momentum and declining RSI, further losses may be in store unless buyers regain control.
The NZD/JPY pair took another step lower on Thursday, slipping to 86.65 as selling pressure intensified. Despite brief attempts to reclaim lost ground, the rejection at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 87.20 exposed the pair to further downside risks, signaling that bulls lack the conviction to shift the momentum in their favor.
Technical signals suggest that sellers remain in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is dropping sharply at 45, pointing to waning buying interest, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is printing decreasing red bars, signaling persistent bearish momentum. The inability to break the 20-day SMA resistance reinforces the view that sellers still dominate the market.
Looking ahead, traders will watch the 86.40 support level closely. A break below this could accelerate losses toward 86.00, where buyers may attempt to stabilize the decline. On the upside, regaining the 87.00 handle would be the first step for bulls to regain traction, though a decisive push above the 20-day SMA remains essential to alter the current bearish outlook.
NZD/JPY daily chart
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