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CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Chinese Renminbi Yuan (USDCNH)

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  • 20.02.2024 06:08
    USD/CNH Price Analysis: Remains capped below the 7.2100 mark following PBoC rate decision
    • USD/CNH loses ground near 7.2090 following the PBoC interest rate decision.
    • The pair keeps the bullish vibe above the key EMA; the RSI indicator lies above the 50-midlines.
    • The initial support level of USD/CNH will emerge at 7.2018; 7.2336 acts as an immediate resistance level.

    The USD/CNH pair trades in negative territory for the fifth consecutive day during the early European session on Tuesday. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) cut the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 25 basis points (bps) from 4.20% to 3.95%, which is a key benchmark lending rate used to price mortgages. Meanwhile, the one-year LPR remained unchanged at 3.45%. USD/CNH is trading at 7.2090, down 0.03% on the day.

    According to the daily chart, the bullish outlook of USD/CNH remains intact as the pair is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lies above the 50-midlines, suggesting the path of least resistance is to the upside.

    The first downside target of USD/CNH will emerge at the 100-day EMA at 7.2018. A breach of this level will see a drop to a low of February 7 at 7.1888. Further south, the next contention level to watch is a low of January 26 at 7.1776. The critical support level is located at the confluence of the psychological level and the lower band of the Bollinger Band.

    On the upside, the immediate resistance level is seen at a high of February 14 at 7.2336. The next hurdle is located at the upper band of the Bollinger Band at 7.2388. A break above the latter will pave the way to a low of November 8 at 7.2664, en route to a high of November 13 at 7.3106.

    USD/CNH daily chart

     

  • 08.02.2024 04:40
    USD/CNH edges lower to near 7.2090 amid a softer-than-expected Chinese CPI
    • USD/CNH attempts to retrace its recent gains on the subdued US Dollar.
    • Chinese CPI declined by 0.8% YoY against the expected 0.5% decline.
    • Fed members’ comments suggest to keeping interest rates elevated until inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

    USD/CNH remains in the negative territory after trimming the intraday losses on Thursday. USD/CNH pair trades lower near 7.2090 during the Asian trading hours. However, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate at 7.1063 as compared to 7.1911 Reuters estimates.

    In January, the Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, which was slightly below the expected 0.4%. However, this figure represented an improvement from the previous reading of 0.1%. On an annual basis, the CPI declined by 0.8%, surpassing the anticipated decline of 0.5% and the previous decline of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) on a year-on-year basis declined by 2.5%, which was slightly lower than the expected 2.6% decline.

    US Dollar (USD) faces challenges due to the risk-on sentiment despite the hawkish stance taken by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for quite some time, which, in turn, weighs on the USD/CNH pair. In a press conference post-interest rate decision on January 31, Fed Chair Jerome Powell rejected the idea of a rate cut in March and committed to monitoring inflation to ensure its sustainable return to the 2% target.

    Additionally, in her address to the Boston Economic Club, Fed Boston President Susan Collins hinted at the potential for rate cuts later in the year if the economy aligns with expectations. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler expressed satisfaction with the significant progress on inflation during remarks made on Wednesday, conveying optimism about the sustainability of this positive trend.

     

  • 05.02.2024 07:28
    USD/CNH will peak near 7.2500 – CIBC

    USD/CNH briefly traded above 7.2000. Economists at CIBC Capital Markets analyze the pair’s outlook.

    Very slight downside relief to 7.2000 and 7.1500 in Q3 and Q4, respectively

    USD/CNH will peak near 7.2500. 

    Almost every week media reports that state banks are selling USD in the spot market to defend the onshore Yuan. Thereafter, we expect very slight downside relief to 7.2000 and 7.1500 in Q3 and Q4, respectively.

    The Yuan will benefit from USD weakness, but less so than North Asian peers JPY and KRW.

     

  • 30.01.2024 08:31
    USD/CNH can gravitate around the 7.2000 area – ING

     Economists at ING analyze structural issues faced by China’s economy and the USD/CNH outlook.

    Increasing talk of the PBoC needing to cut interest rates further

    There are no quick fixes for the property sector and the measures announced by policymakers to support local equity markets, such as restrictions on short-selling, are not proving effective. There is increasing talk of the People's Bank Of China needing to cut interest rates further.

    While local policymakers will be glad that USD/CNH has reversed from the 7.3000/7.3500 area – breaking a 'sell-China' mindset – they will not want the Renminbi to rally too much either. This tends to suggest that USD/CNH can gravitate around the 7.2000 area and that Asian FX will continue in its very sluggish start to 2024.

     

  • 30.01.2024 05:06
    USD/CNH Price Analysis: Refreshes daily top near 7.1885-90, seems poised to climb further
    • USD/CNH reverses an Asian session dip and stalls the previous day’s pullback from a multi-day top.
    • The technical setup favours bullish traders and supports prospects for a further appreciating move.
    • Acceptance below the 7.1870-7.1865 confluence is needed to negate the near-term positive bias.

    The USD/CNH pair attracts some dip-buying near the 7.1810-7.1805 area during the Asian session on Tuesday and climbs to a fresh daily peak in the last hour. Spot prices currently trade with a mild positive bias, around the 7.1885-7.1890 region, though remain below a multi-day top touched on Monday.

    From a technical perspective, the USD/CNH pair showed resilience below the 7.1870-7.1865 confluence and for now, seems to have stalled the overnight pullback from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall from a two-month top touched on January 17. The said area comprises the 50% Fibo. level, the 50- and the 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the 4-hour chart, which should now act as a key pivotal point.

    Some follow-through selling, leading to a subsequent slide below the 7.1810-7.1805 zone, or the Asian session low, will be seen as a key trigger for intraday bears and drag the USD/CNH pair to the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 7.1765 region. A convincing break below the latter might expose the next relevant support near the 7.1640-7.1635 area or the 23.6% Fibo. level.

    Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and support prospects for additional gains. That said, any subsequent move-up is likely to confront resistance near the 7.1930 area. This is followed by the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the 7.1970-7.1975 region, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for a move beyond the 7.2000 mark, towards the next relevant hurdle near the 7.2020-7.2030 zone.

    USD/CNH 4-hour chart

    fxsoriginal

    Technical levels to watch

     

  • 19.01.2024 02:43
    USD/CNH Price Analysis: Edges lower to near 7.2100 followed by support at 23.6% Fibonacci
    • USD/CNH extends its losses followed by the support at 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 7.1985.
    • A break below the 14-day EMA could lead the pair to test the weekly low at 7.1748.
    • Technical indicators suggest a bullish momentum to revisit the week’s high at 7.2322.

    USD/CNH extends its losses for the second successive session, trading lower near the 7.2100 psychological level during the Asian session on Friday. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has consistently set the reference rate at levels lower than what modeled estimates suggest. Additionally, strategic moves have been made to bolster the offshore Yuan (CNH) by selling the US Dollar (USD) in the open market.

    The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 7.1985 acts as an immediate support followed by the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 7.1899. A firm break below the 14-day EMA could put downward pressure on the USD/CNH pair to navigate the support region around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 7.1772 aligned with the week’s low at 7.1748.

    The technical analysis of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for the USD/CNH pair reveals a bullish outlook. The MACD line is situated above the centerline and displays divergence above the signal line. This configuration suggests a potential uptrend in the market. With this bullish sentiment, there is a possibility that the pair may revisit the week's high at 7.2322.

    Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a lagging indicator, is positioned above the 50 mark. This suggests a confirmation of stronger momentum for the USD/CNH pair. With this increased momentum, there is potential for the bulls to strengthen their position, potentially surpassing the week's high and exploring levels around the psychological mark at 7.2500.

    USD/CAD: Daily Chart

     

  • 29.12.2023 05:52
    USD/CNH holds below the 7.1000 mark in the last trading day of 2023
    • USD/CNH attracts some sellers around 7.0990 amid the quiet session on Friday.
    • The bearish outlook remains intact as the pair holds below the key EMA on the daily chart.
    • The initial support level will emerge at 7.0668; the first resistance level is located at 7.1206.

    The USD/CNH pair extends its downside during the early European session on Friday. The softer US Dollar (USD) and lower US Treasury bond yields exert some selling pressure on the pair. USD/CNH currently trades near 7.0990, losing 0.28% on the day.

    From the technical perspective, USD/CNH holds below the 50- and 100-hour Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) on the daily chart, suggesting that further downside looks favorable. Additionally, the downward momentum is supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands in bearish territory below 50.

    The initial support level for USD/CNH will emerge near a low of June 2 at 7.0668. Further south, the next contention is located near a low of May 26 at 7.0557. A break below 7.0412 (Low of May 23) will see a drop to 7.0152 (Low of May 22).

    On the upside, the first upside barrier to watch is a low of December 20 at 7.1206. The additional upside filter is seen at a high of December 28 at 7.1534. Any follow-through buying above the latter will see a rally to 7.1636 (High of December 22), en route to 7.1767 (High of December 6).

    USD/CNH daily chart

     

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