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  • 15.07.2024 09:27
    USD/CNH: Trades upward towards 7.2910 for now – UOB Group

    Risk for is for the US Dollar (USD) rising, but any advance is expected to face strong resistance at 7.2910, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

    USD to trade with a downward bias towards 7.2400

    24-HOUR VIEW: “We highlighted last Friday that USD ‘could test 7.2550 first before stabilisation is likely.’ Our view did not materialise as USD traded between 7.2634 and 7.2784. While USD closed largely unchanged at 7.2710 (+0.05%), it opened and traded on a strong footing in Asia today. Upward momentum is improving, and the risk for USD rising today. However, any advance is expected to face strong resistance at 7.2910. On the downside, support levels are at 7.2750 and 7.2650.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Friday (12 Jul, spot at 7.2685), we were of the view that USD ‘is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 7.2400.’ We highlighted that ‘the downward bias is intact as long as USD remains below 7.2910.’ There is no chance in our view.”

  • 12.07.2024 08:43
    USD/CNH: Bias is on the downside while below 7.2910 – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) could test 7.2550 first before stabilisation is likely; the next support at 7.2400 is unlikely to come under threat, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

    USD to trade lower towards 7.2400

    24-HOUR VIEW: “We did not anticipate USD to drop sharply yesterday, as it closed lower by 0.34% (7.2673). While the sharp drop appears to be overdone, USD could test 7.2550 first before stabilisation is likely. The next support at 7.2400 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 7.2750; a breach of 7.2800 would mean that the weakness has stabilised.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have expected USD to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100 since last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 7.3000). After trading in a quiet manner for a few days, USD plummeted and dropped to a low of 7.2584 yesterday. Downward momentum is building, and USD is likely to trade with a downward bias towards 7.2400. The downward bias is intact as long as USD remains below 7.2910.”

  • 11.07.2024 09:03
    USD/CNH is set to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100 – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100 for the time being, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

    Rangebound between 7.2700 and 7.3100

    24-HOUR VIEW: “USD continues to trade in a quiet manner yesterday, between 7.2885 and 7.2939. The traded range was narrower than our expected range of 7.2820/7.2950. The quiet price action provides no fresh clues. Today, we continue to expect USD to trade in a range between 7.2820 and 7.2950.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 7.3000), we highlighted that the recent buildup of upward momentum had largely dissipated. We were of the view that the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation, and we expected USD to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100 or the time being. There is no change in our view.”

  • 10.07.2024 10:21
    USD/CNH to move towards 7.45 by year-end – Societe Generale

    Third Plenum meeting is going to happen next week. The discussion around reviving the property market and consumer sentiment will be its main topic, Societe Generale FX strategists note.  

    Retreat from 7.30 for USD/CNH may be short-lived

    “Soft inflation data in China overnight reinforces our view that consumer sentiment in the mainland economy remains weak.”

    “The discussion around reviving the property market and consumer sentiment will be the main topic at the Third Plenum meeting next week.”

    “The consequences of subdued economic growth means the retreat from 7.30 for USD/CNH may be short-lived. Our EM colleagues pencil appreciation of the pair towards 7.45 by year-end.”

  • 10.07.2024 09:09
    USD/CNH: A chance to break above 7.2950 – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range, probably between 7.2820 and 7.2950, or at least in a wider range between 7.2700 and 7.3100 for the time being, UOB Group FX strategists Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

    USD eyes to break above 7.2950

    24-HOUR VIEW: “USD continues to trade in a quiet manner yesterday, between 7.2869 and 7.2931. The traded range was narrower than our expected range of 7.2820/7.2950. The quiet price action provides no fresh clues. Today, we continue to expect USD to trade in a range between 7.2820 and 7.2950.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 7.3000), we highlighted that the recent buildup of upward momentum had largely dissipated. We were of the view that the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation, and we expected USD to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100 or the time being. There is no change in our view.”

  • 09.07.2024 08:44
    USD/CNH: All eyes on 7.2950 – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range, probably between 7.2820 and 7.2950, UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

    USD is set to break above 7.2950

    24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected USD to trade in a 7.2800/7.2970 range yesterday. However, USD traded in a narrower range than expected (7.2848/7.2919). USD closed largely unchanged at 7.2872 (-0.01%). The quiet price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect USD to trade in a range, probably between 7.2820 and 7.2950.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 7.3000), we highlighted that the recent buildup of upward momentum had largely dissipated. We were of the view that the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation, and we expected USD to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100 or the time being. There is no change in our view.”

  • 08.07.2024 15:51
    USD/CNH: Fixing normalizes – OCBS

    USD/CNH traded briefly above 7.31 before turning lower into the week’s close, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

    The pair moves lower tracked broad USD pullback

    “Move lower tracked broad US Dollar (USD) pullback while daily fixing reverted to +5pips/day last week (vs. +15 pips/day during 19 – 28 Jun). Today’s fixing came in at -3pips at 7.1286 (vs. 7.1289 on Fri).”

    “That said, recent USD/CNY fixings continued to follow a pattern that reinforced our view that authorities are pursuing a measured pace of RMB depreciation, in attempt to let out some depreciation pressure. We believe the Intent is not to pursue a big bang approach so as not to undermine sentiments (for fear of accelerating outflows) – we continue to monitor.”

    “But overall, higher USD/CNY fix, wider CNH-CNY spread and worries of escalation in US-China trade tensions may imply some concerns on RMB in the immediate horizon. USDCNH was last at 7.2867 levels. Mild bullish on daily chart eased but decline in RSI moderated. 2-way risks. Resistance at 7.31, 7.3440 (previous high in Oct 2023). Support at 7.28, 7.2770 (21 DMA) and 7.26 (50 DMA).”

     

  • 08.07.2024 09:37
    USD/CNH: A chance to break below 7.2800 – UOB Group

    Instead of declining further, the US Dollar (USD) is more likely to trade in a 7.2800/7.2970 range, or at least in a wider range between 7.2700 and 7.3100, UOB Group analysts note.

    USD/CNH can fall to 7.2700

    24-HOUR VIEW: “While we expected USD to decline further last Friday, we were of the view that it ‘is unlikely to threaten the support at 7.2800.’ USD fell more than expected, as it dropped briefly to 7.2790 before rebounding to close largely unchanged (7.2882, -0.05%). The rebound in oversold conditions suggests instead of declining further, USD is more likely to trade in a 7.2800/7.2970 range today.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 7.3000), we highlighted that the recent buildup of upward momentum had largely dissipated. We were of the view that the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation, and we expected USD to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100 or the time being. There is no change in our view.”

  • 05.07.2024 09:02
    USD/CNH: The pair faces a small chance to fall to 7.2800– UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) could decline further, but it is unlikely to threaten the support at 7.2800. In the longer run, upward momentum has largely dissipated, and USD is expected to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100 for the time being, UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.  

    USD to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100

    24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we noted that ‘downward momentum is beginning to build.’ We also indicated that USD ‘could drop to 7.2900 but is unlikely to threaten the next support at 7.2800.’ While USD subsequently dropped, it only reached a low of 7.2917. Downward has increased further, albeit not much. Today, USD could continue to decline, but the support at 7.2800 is still unlikely to come under threat. There is another support at 7.2860. On the upside, if USD breaks above 7.3030 (minor resistance is at 7.2980), it would indicate that USD is not declining further.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (04 Jul, spot at 7.3000). As highlighted, the recent buildup of upward momentum had largely dissipated. The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation. For the time being, we expect USD to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100.”

  • 04.07.2024 09:05
    USD/CNH: The pair has the chance to drop to 7.2900 – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) could drop to 7.2900. The next support at 7.2800 is unlikely to come under threat, UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.  

    A sustained breach above 7.3100 is on the board

    24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated out yesterday that ‘the underlying tone still appears to be firm, and we continue to expect USD to edge above 7.3100.’ However, we pointed out that ‘the next resistance at 7.3200 is unlikely to come into view.’ While USD subsequently edged above 7.3100 (high of 7.3114), it fell sharply from there to a low of 7.2924. USD rebounded from the low and closed at 7.3025 (-0.06%). Downward momentum is beginning to build, and USD could drop to 7.2900. The next support at 7.2800 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 7.3050, followed by 7.3100.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a positive USD view over the past two weeks. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (27 Jun, spot at 7.2990), we indicated that USD could break above 7.3100, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view. Yesterday, USD rose above 7.3100, reaching a high of 7.3114 before falling sharply to 7.2924. While our ‘strong support’ level at 7.2880 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely dissipated. The current price movements are likely part of a consolidation. For the time being, we expected USD to trade between 7.2700 and 7.3100.”

  • 03.07.2024 09:34
    USD/CNH: The next resistance above 7.3100 is at 7.3200 – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) could edge above 7.3100. The next resistance at 7.3200 is unlikely to come into view, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view, UOB Group analysts note.

    USD can edge above 7.3100

    24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we indicated that ‘there is a chance for USD to edge above 7.3100, but it is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold above this level.’ However, USD traded in a narrow range between 7.3029 and 7.3094, closing at 7.3072 (+0.02%). The underlying tone still appears to be firm, and we continue to expect USD to edge above 7.3100. The next resistance at 7.3200 is unlikely to come into view. Support levels are at 7.3020 and 7.2980.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (27 Jun, spot at 7.2990), we indicated that USD could break above 7.3100, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view. We added, ‘only a breach of 7.2800 would mean that the advance in USD from the middle of the month has ended.’ While we continue to hold the same view, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 7.2880 from 7.2800 previously.”

  • 02.07.2024 09:24
    USD/CNH: A break above 7.3100 is likely – UOB Group

    Chance for USD to edge above 7.3100, but it is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold above this level. If it breaks above 7.3100, the next significant resistance at 7.3400 may come into view, UOB Group analysts note. 

    The next resistance at 7.3400 may come into view

    24-HOUR VIEW: “We noted yesterday that ‘the price action is likely part of a range trading phase,’ and we expected USD to trade between 7.2930 and 7.3060. USD then traded in a narrower range than expected (7.2965/7.3060). There has been a slight increase in upward momentum, and there is a chance for USD to edge above 7.3100 today. Given the mild upward momentum, it is unlikely to be able to maintain a foothold above this level. The next resistance at 7.3200 is highly unlikely to come into view. Support levels are at 7.2980 and 7.2930.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (27 Jun, spot at 7.2990), we indicated that USD could break above 7.3100, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view. There is no change in our view. Overall, only a breach of 7.2800 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that the advance in USD from the middle of the month has ended.”

  • 01.07.2024 09:50
    USD/CNH: The pair may break above 7.3100 – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade between 7.2930 and 7.3060.  USD could break above 7.3100, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view.

    A breach below 7.2800 to stop the USD from advancing

    24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected USD to test the major resistance at 7.3100 last Friday. Our view was incorrect, as after rising to 7.3066, USD fell sharply to a low of 7.2905. USD rebounded from the low and closed little changed at 7.3018 (-0.03%). The price action is likely part of a range trading phase. Today, USD is likely to trade between 7.2930 and 7.3060.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (27 Jun, spot at 7.2990), we indicated that USD could break above 7.3100, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view. There is no change in our view. Overall, only a breach of 7.2800 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that the advance in USD from the middle of the month has ended.”

  • 28.06.2024 11:46
    USD/CNH: 7-day trend of fixing higher breaks – OCBC

    USD/CNH slipped after USD/CNY fix came in lower this morning, breaking the past 7-day trend of fixing higher everyday, FX strategist at OCBC Christopher Wong notes.

    Third plenum to set long term policy

    “Pair was last at 7.2929. Momentum is bullish though RSI shows signs of easing from near overbought conditions. Resistance at 7.30, 7.31 levels. Support at 7.2705 (21 DMA).”

    “That said, apart from today, the recent USD/CNY fixings have followed a pattern that continued to reinforce our view that authorities are pursuing a measured pace of RMB depreciation. Change in daily fix on average was about +17.4 pips (19 Jun – 27 Jun) vs. average daily change of about 4.9 pips/day since May 2024.”

    “Elsewhere, China announced third plenum will be held on 15 – 18 July to set long term policy on a wide range of economic and political issues.”

  • 28.06.2024 09:50
    USD/CNH: A break below 7.2800 might weigh the USD – UOB Group

    Barring a break below 7.2920, the US Dollar (USD) could rise and test the major resistance level at 7.3100. USD could break above 7.3100, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view, UOB Group analysts suggest.

    USD is unlikely to break above 7.3100

    24-HOUR VIEW: “On Wednesday, USD soared to 7.3080 before pulling back. Yesterday (Thursday), we indicated that ‘the pullback from the high in overbought conditions suggests that instead of continuing to rise, USD is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.2920 and 7.3060.’ USD subsequently traded in a narrower range than expected (7.2941/7.3040). Despite the quiet price movements, the underlying tone has improved to some extent. Today, barring a break below 7.2920 (minor support is at 7.2970), USD could rise and test the major resistance at 7.3100. From here, there does not appear to be sufficient momentum for USD to break clearly above this level.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “There have been no significant changes since our update yesterday (27 Jun, spot at 7.2990). As indicated, after the strong advance in USD two days earlier, there is there is still room for USD to rise further. However, while USD could break above 7.3100, it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view. Overall, only a breach of 7.2800 (no ‘strong support’ level) would mean that the advance in USD from last has ended.”

  • 27.06.2024 09:16
    USD/CNH: The pair can break above 7.3100 – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.2920 and 7.3060. USD could break above 7.3100, but it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view, UOB Group analysts suggest.

    The upside risk is intact above 7.2800

    24-HOUR VIEW: “USD traded in a quiet manner two days ago. Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘despite the quiet price action, there has been a slight increase in momentum.’ We expected USD to edge higher, but we were of the view that ‘any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 7.3000.’ The anticipated USD advance exceeded our expectations, as it not only broke above 7.3000 but also came close to the next major resistance at 7.3100 (high has been 7.3080). The pullback from the high in overbought conditions suggests that instead of continuing to rise, USD is more likely to trade in a range today, probably between 7.2920 and 7.3060.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned positive in USD early last week. In our latest narrative from last Friday (21 Jun, spot at 7.2920), we indicated that ‘further USD strength is likely, and the resistance levels to watch are 7.3000 and 7.3100.’ After trading in a relatively quiet manner for a few days, USD took off yesterday and soared to a high of 7.3080. There is still room for USD to rise further, but while a break of 7.3100 will not be surprising, it is too early to tell if the next significant resistance at 7.3400 will come into view this time round. The upside risk is intact as long as 7.2800 is not breached (‘strong support’ level previously at 7.2700).”

  • 26.06.2024 11:32
    USD/CNH: RMB depreciation continues – OCBC

    The recent USD/CNY fixings suggest a measured pace of RMB depreciation, OCBC analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

    USD/CNH continues to move up towards 7.31

    “The recent USD/CNY fixings have followed a pattern that continued to reinforced out view that authorities are pursuing a measured pace of RMB depreciation.”

    “Change in daily fix on average is about +17pips since 19 Jun (about 6 days) vs. average daily change of about 4.5pips/day since May2024. Higher USD/CNY fix and wider CNH-CNY spread gives the impression there could be further weakening in RMB ahead.”

    “USD/CNH was last at 7.3011. Momentum is bullish while RSI rose. Risks skewed to the upside. Resistance at 7.31. Support at 7.2705 (21 DMA).”

  • 26.06.2024 08:32
    USD/CNH: A break above 7.3000 can lead to 7.3100 eventually – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) is likely to edge higher. Any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 7.3000 and 7.3100, UOB Group analysts note.

    Below 7.2700 USD to turn lower

    24-HOUR VIEW: “We noted yesterday that ‘the price movements still appear to be part of a sideways trading phase.’ We expected USD to trade in a range of 7.2750/7.2910. USD then traded in a slightly narrower range between 7.2763 and 7.2907. Despite the quiet price action, there has been a slight increase in momentum. Today, USD is likely to edge higher, but any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 7.3000. Note that there is another resistance level at 7.2945. Support levels are at 7.2830 and 7.2780.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have expected USD to strengthen since early last week. In our latest update from last Friday (21 Jun, spot at 7.2920), we indicated that ‘further USD strength is likely, and the resistance levels to watch are 7.3000 and 7.3100.’ While USD has not been able to make any further headway on the upside, we continue to hold the same view for now. However, if USD breaks below 7.2700 (no change in ‘strong support’ level), it would mean that USD is not strengthening further.”

  • 25.06.2024 11:23
    USD/CNH may follow USD/JPY if it breaks above 160 – Societe Generale

    If USD/JPY does break through 160 in the coming days the USD/CNH pair may come along, Chief FX Strategist at Societe Generale Kit Juckes argues.

    The US/Japanese rate gap is too big

    “USD/CNH and USD/JPY move in tandem. The Japanese Yen (JPY) moves more, and the Chinese Yuan (CNH) moves are more controlled, but they seldom move in opposite directions. This reflects economic similarities as much as geographical proximity and it is changing the way the FX market works.”

    “At the moment, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) are trying to talk the Yen around, and the chances of both rate hikes and bond sales have increased, but with the US/Japanese rate gap so big, does anything the BoJ does matter yet?”

    “If USD/JPY does break through 160 in the coming days, preventing further Yuan weakness would be very difficult indeed.”

  • 25.06.2024 09:32
    USD/CNH: To trade sideways within a range of 7.2750/7.2910 – UOB Group

    The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a sideways range of 7.2750/7.2910. Resistance levels to watch are 7.3000 and 7.3100, UOB Group analysts note.

    Resistance lies at 7.3000 and 7.3100

    24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that USD ‘could continue to trade sideways, likely in a range of 7.2850/7.2950.’ USD then traded in a wider range than expected (7.2771/7.2937), closing slightly lower by 0.12% at 7.2830. The price movements still appear to be part of a sideways trading phase. That said, the slightly softened underlying tone suggests USD is likely to trade in a lower range of 7.2750/7.2910.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have expected USD to strengthen since early last week. In our latest update from last Friday (21 Jun, spot at 7.2920), we indicated that ‘further USD strength is likely, and the resistance levels to watch are 7.3000 and 7.3100.’ Yesterday, USD eked out a fresh high of 7.2937 before pulling back. There has been a slight slowdown in momentum, but only a breach of 7.2700 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not strengthening further.”

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