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CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Norwegian Krone (USDNOK)

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  • 21.06.2024 16:07
    USD/NOK recovers following NB hawkish hold.
    • Norges Bank kept rates steady at 4.5%, as expected.
    • The bank is delaying the easing to Q1 of 2025.
    • As long as the NB policy diverges with its peers the NOK might see further upside.

    On Friday, the USD/NOK recovered towards 10.575 and cleared most of Thursday's losses. That being said, the NOK is holding strong against its peers as the Norges Bank will likely start the easing in Q1 of 2025.


    The Norges Bank announced on Thursday that it will maintain its interest rate at 4.5%, a decision that was widely anticipated. This move is considered hawkish as the bank has delayed its initial rate cut projection to the first quarter of 2025, previously set for the third quarter of 2024. According to the new forecast, the policy rate will stay at 4.50% until the end of the year and will then begin to decrease gradually. This contrasts with the more aggressive rate-cutting strategies of neighboring central banks, which are grappling with different economic challenges. 

    Regarding the economic outlook, Norges Bank expressed concerns that reducing the rate too soon could lead to prolonged inflation above the target level despite the latest economic challenges. As a result, market expectations for a rate cut within the next six months have nearly vanished, with approximately 50 basis points of easing anticipated over the following half-year which fueled a rise of the Krone against its peers. 

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    According to the daily chart, the outlook of the pair remains bearish with indicators flashing bearish signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below 50 while the Moving Average Divergence Convergence (MACD) prints steady red bars.

    The most clear of the bearish signals is that the pair has recently dipped below the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) as lost over 1% in the last four sessions.

    USD/NOK daily chart

  • 20.05.2024 18:34
    USD/NOK remains steady as cautious remarks by Fed officials underpin the USD
    • USD/NOK registers a slight uptick in Monday's session, settling at 10.693, with buyers making measured strides.
    • With the Fed displaying resistance against premature easing, the USD finds solid support.
    • Markets will look for further clues on the Fed’s stance on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

    The USD/NOK pair is trading with mild gains, with the USD holding its ground against its peers. The Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to send cautious messages about future policy decisions, causing traders to wait for the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes scheduled for Wednesday to gain further insights into the bank's stance.

    The Fed's unified voice cautioning on easing, despite a softening in recent data, remains one of the influential factors of the pair which is limiting the downside of the pair. The views are aligned with the market bets of a 10% possibility of a rate cut in June which rises to 30% and 80% in July and September according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    On the data front, the economic calendar remained empty on Monday, and the week’s highlights include the FOMC minutes from May’s meeting on Wednesday, S&P PMI readings from May on Thursday, and Durable Goods figures from April on Friday.

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    Examining the daily graph, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resides within negative territory, increasing slightly to 43, indicating a sluggish recovery from a negative trend. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveals a flat tendency with persistent red bars, suggesting that negative momentum is still prevalent among investors.

    USD/NOK daily chart

    From the broader perspective, the USD/NOK is at a critical juncture, positioned below the 20 and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) suggesting a negative outlook. Still, the losses will be limited if the pair holds above the 100-day average at 10.652.

    USD/NOK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.6964
    Today Daily Change 0.0196
    Today Daily Change % 0.18
    Today daily open 10.6768
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.8962
    Daily SMA50 10.815
    Daily SMA100 10.6468
    Daily SMA200 10.7108
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.8451
    Previous Daily Low 10.6708
    Previous Weekly High 10.9094
    Previous Weekly Low 10.6045
    Previous Monthly High 11.1373
    Previous Monthly Low 10.518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.7374
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.7785
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.6167
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.5567
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.4425
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.791
    Daily Pivot Point R2 10.9052
    Daily Pivot Point R3 10.9652

     

     

  • 17.05.2024 18:05
    USD/NOK with light losses on quiet Friday, cautious Fed supports the USD
    • USD/NOK saw mild losses on Friday’s session, around 10.66.
    • Despite mixed reactions to softening economic data, the Dollar remains steady due to a cautious stance from Fed officials.
    • The Fed recognized progress but that it needs further data to start cutting.

    The USD/NOK stands mildly down on Friday with the Greenback holding its ground thanks to the cautious tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. They mention that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures have yet to meet the Fed's desired targets which makes the market attach to their bets of the easing starting in September.

    Fed officials, including Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, and Thomas Barkin, have adopted a cautious stance in light of recent US economic data. Despite softening figures, the US Dollar has remained resilient, reflecting confidence in the existing monetary policy. The difficulty appears in the inflation trajectory, with Bostic and Mester both emphasizing the necessity of awaiting further data before deciding on potential rate adjustments. Barkin's remarks echo this cautious mindset, noting that the current CPI does not reflect the Fed’s target for inflation, suggesting possible adjustments in the near future.

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/NOK pair is in negative territory, marking an overall bearish momentum. There is a gradual descent, indicating a continuous sell-off with no immediate signs of reversal. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram produces flat red bars, suggesting a stable negative momentum supplementing further support to the prevailing downward pressure.

    USD/NOK daily chart

    When considering the Simple Moving Average (SMA) analysis, the pair can be seen between the 200 and 100-day SMAs which reflects a negative outlook in the overall trend. On the short-term, the outlook also favors the bears as the pair stands below the 20-day SMA.

     

    USD/NOK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.68
    Today Daily Change -0.0142
    Today Daily Change % -0.13
    Today daily open 10.6942
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.9133
    Daily SMA50 10.8101
    Daily SMA100 10.6417
    Daily SMA200 10.7096
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.7331
    Previous Daily Low 10.6045
    Previous Weekly High 10.9612
    Previous Weekly Low 10.6571
    Previous Monthly High 11.1373
    Previous Monthly Low 10.518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.684
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.6537
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.6214
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.5487
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.4929
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.75
    Daily Pivot Point R2 10.8059
    Daily Pivot Point R3 10.8786

     

     

  • 16.05.2024 18:23
    USD/NOK finds some traction despite soft US data
    • USD/NOK is trading higher by 0.30%, quoted at 10.69 during Thursday's session.
    • A surprise increase in Initial Jobless Claims suggests a slowing down of the US economy, which weighs on the USD.
    • Markets are pricing in sooner interest rate cuts by the Fed following the recent soft CPI report.

    On Thursday, the USD/NOK traded higher despite the ongoing data including April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported on Wednesday which came in softer than expected. The softer data is making markets think that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider sooner rate cuts than anticipated. As for now, the best-case scenario for markets continues to be a first cut in September.

    The US economy hints at a potential slowdown as reflected by the unexpected hike in Initial Jobless Claims and the dip in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, shifting markets into believing the Federal Reserve may introduce rate cuts sooner, generating downward pressure on the USD. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims for the week observed a rise to 222K, surpassing predictions, and displaying an upward revision to 232K for the previous week's data. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for May showed a slump to 4.5, failing to meet market expectations.

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of USD/NOK suggests negative momentum, signaled by a consistent positioning of the pair below the 50 mark. Despite the negative trend, the RSI value in the most recent session hints at potential easing, edging up to roughly 41 from a near-oversold low of 39.

    USD/NOK daily chart

  • 14.05.2024 18:45
    USD/NOK continues losing ground after US PPI, CPI data looms
    • Jerome Powell stated on Tuesday that his confidence in inflation coming down is lower.
    • The US reported that April’s PPI aligned with expectations.
    • April’s CPI and Retail Sales will define the outlook of the USD.

    The USD/NOK pair is trading lower on Tuesday. Overall, the USD strength persists despite a mild bearish pressure and Jerome Powell confirmed its wait-and-watch approach by the bank.

    The US economy continues to showcase considerable strength, with persistent indications of a resilient labor market and sustained consumer spending, as noted by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday. His sentiment, however, carried a note of caution regarding the dilemma of inflation and the subsequent need for consistency in implementing restrictive policies.

    On the data front, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures resonated with these insights, reporting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in April, in conformity with market forecasts. On Wednesday, the US will report April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is expected to have shown a deceleration and will shape the expectations for the next Fed decision. As for now, the kick-off of the easing is seen starting in September.

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is oscillating within negative territory, signaling that sellers may continue to control the market. Despite a brief shift in momentum on Monday, with the RSI hitting 50.99, the most recent session sees the RSI at 46.20, suggesting a continuation of the bearish sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram further bolsters this sentiment, with its red bars increasing, indicative of a growing bearish momentum.

    USD/NOK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.8083
    Today Daily Change -0.0088
    Today Daily Change % -0.08
    Today daily open 10.8171
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.9574
    Daily SMA50 10.7962
    Daily SMA100 10.6245
    Daily SMA200 10.7028
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.9094
    Previous Daily Low 10.7964
    Previous Weekly High 10.9612
    Previous Weekly Low 10.6571
    Previous Monthly High 11.1373
    Previous Monthly Low 10.518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.8396
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.8663
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.7726
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.728
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.6596
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.8855
    Daily Pivot Point R2 10.954
    Daily Pivot Point R3 10.9985

     

     

  • 13.05.2024 18:16
    USD/NOK edges lower on quiet Monday, ahead of US CPI
    • With the Norges Bank holding rates at 4.5% and suggesting a prolonged duration of stringent monetary policies, a bullish trend for the NOK is likely.
    • The Federal Reserve's cautious remarks provided support to the Dollar lately.
    • Retail Sales and CPI data from the US this week will set the pace of the pair.

    The USD/NOK pair saw a sharp decrease in Monday's trading session, driven primarily by ongoing hawkish sentiment from the Norges Bank and a somewhat weak start of the week for the Greenback.

    The Federal Reserve (Fed) made guarded comments that have boosted the Dollar last week. As for now, the possibility of a June rate cut dropped to 5% compared to 10% at the start of last week, whereas July's odds fell to close to 25% from 40%, with a November adjustment remaining fully priced in. However, those odds will vary as the Fed has clearly stated that it remains data-dependant and this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from April as well as Retail Sales will be closely looked upon by investors.

    On the NOK’s side, Norway's central bank, Norges Bank, maintained its hawkish stance, keeping the interest rate at 4.5% and implying an extended duration of a strict monetary policy. This inclination, along with April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) which showed a slight increase to an annual rate of 3.6% and an unexpected jump in the underlying inflation rate to 4.4%, has given rise to a bullish outlook for the NOK. Market participants only predict a 50 basis point cuts in the upcoming 12 months.

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/NOK pair resides in the negative territory, indicating a modest bearish momentum. Despite the RSI's oscillations within the negative and positive zones in recent sessions, the latest reading reveals a clearer downward trend, suggesting that sellers might slightly rule the market at the moment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, which shows ascending red bars, further supports this. These red bars on the MACD indicate that negative momentum is escalating and that bearish sentiment is taking root.

     

    USD/NOK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.8181
    Today Daily Change -0.0913
    Today Daily Change % -0.84
    Today daily open 10.9094
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.9638
    Daily SMA50 10.7912
    Daily SMA100 10.6184
    Daily SMA200 10.6994
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.9369
    Previous Daily Low 10.8068
    Previous Weekly High 10.9612
    Previous Weekly Low 10.6571
    Previous Monthly High 11.1373
    Previous Monthly Low 10.518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.8872
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.8565
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.8318
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.7542
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.7017
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.962
    Daily Pivot Point R2 11.0145
    Daily Pivot Point R3 11.0921

     

     

  • 10.05.2024 18:49
    USD/NOK trades mildly lower after Norwegian CPI data
    • Despite hot inflation readings from Norway, the Fed’s hawkish stance limits the downside.
    • Markets are gearing up for next week’s US CPI reading which may likely set the pace of the pair.

    The USD/NOK pair is trading with mild losses around 10.85. The Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish approach seems to be aiding the USD, while strong economic recovery signals in Norway aren't offsetting this impact on the NOK. As the American calendar remains empty, all eyes are on next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from April from the US.

    Norway's April CPI showed that the headline number rose to 3.6% year-on-year, which was slightly higher than anticipated, although it showed a slight drop from March's 3.9%. Meanwhile, the underlying inflation rate surprised by coming in at 4.4% year-on-year, two ticks higher than expected, and up from March's 4.5%.

    Last week, the Norges Bank opted to maintain rates at 4.5% and highlighted the possibility of needing to sustain a tight monetary policy stance for a longer duration than previously anticipated, citing the current data trends. Markets are expecting only 50 bps of easing in the next 12 months.

    On the US side, US Fed officials are keeping the hawkish bets steady and as for now, investors are delaying the start of the easing cycle to September.

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/NOK pair remains largely within the negative territory. Today's reading is at 46.66, which suggests a somewhat bearish short-term outlook. Due to its fluctuation, with an initial high near-overbought conditions and a subsequent drop, the RSI indicates the potential for bearish pressure. However, the consistent presence within the negative territory also warns of a continuous downtrend possibility.

    Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram strengthens this view. Rising red bars signify an increasing negative momentum, with sellers gaining a more dominant position in the market.

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    Upon evaluation of the bigger picture, the USD/NOK chart exhibits a strong stance above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). As the pair trades above these key moving averages, it indicates a bullish long-term trend, considering both minor and major aspects. However, given the significant trading above these levels, traders should be mindful of the potential pullback risks, which could provide possible buying opportunities.

    In conclusion, despite a bearish short-term view provided by the daily RSI and MACD indicators, the placement above the SMAs suggests an overall bullish trajectory for the USD/NOK pair. Caution is warranted due to possible volatility and the likelihood of pullbacks, hence the need for continuous monitoring of market trends and indicators.

    USD/NOK daily chart

    USD/NOK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.8522
    Today Daily Change 0.0013
    Today Daily Change % 0.01
    Today daily open 10.8509
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.9632
    Daily SMA50 10.7834
    Daily SMA100 10.6114
    Daily SMA200 10.6956
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.9348
    Previous Daily Low 10.6571
    Previous Weekly High 11.1437
    Previous Weekly Low 10.804
    Previous Monthly High 11.1373
    Previous Monthly Low 10.518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.7632
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.8287
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.6938
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.5366
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.4161
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.9714
    Daily Pivot Point R2 11.0919
    Daily Pivot Point R3 11.249

     

     

  • 07.05.2024 18:25
    USD/NOK gains ground as markets digest Fed official's words, Eurozone outlook
    • Latest statements reveal a more assertive posture from Fed officials, potentially cooling expectations of rate cuts.
    • Soft economic figures from the German and Eurozone economies may stimulate bearish perspectives for the NOK.

    The USD/NOK pair is currently trading with 0.60% gains on Tuesday, despite broad market predictions of a softened US monetary policy. This resurgence is fueled by an aggressive approach from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials at the beginning of the week. On the other hand, the Norwegian Krone (NOK) faces uncertainty as critical European economic indicators underperform and the possibility of a rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) grows.

    Monetary policy stances, notably a more assertive position from Fed officials, appear to be the key drive behind recent USD strength. The notion of an impending easing in the Fed’s monetary policy was contested, with many Fed officials mirroring Powell’s tone, thus promoting a more hawkish bias that limits the downside for the USD.

    On the other hand, in the Eurozone, expectations are skewed towards a rate cut scheduled for June from the ECB. In addition, Recent data showed weak March factory orders from Germany and as countries across the eurozone soften, it increases the probability of a bearish scenario for the Norwegian Krone.

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    Based on the indicators of the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a negative trend for the USD/NOK. The most recent RSI figure is in negative territory, although showing a marginal recovery from the previous session. This suggests that sellers are currently dominating the market but that bulls present a battle. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is producing flat red bars, indicating negative momentum and reinforcing that sellers dominate at present. However, a limited upward shift on the daily RSI could hint at potential volatility or a slight pullback.

    USD/NOK daily chart

    In the wider perspective, the USD/NOK pair is revealing signs of bullish momentum as it is positioned above the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) for the 100, and 200-day periods. This positioning indicates a continuation of the bullish dominance that traders should take into account. However, the short term is in the hands of the bears as they drove the pair below the 20-day SMA.

     

    USD/NOK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.9179
    Today Daily Change 0.0690
    Today Daily Change % 0.64
    Today daily open 10.8489
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.9507
    Daily SMA50 10.7655
    Daily SMA100 10.5942
    Daily SMA200 10.6862
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.885
    Previous Daily Low 10.8016
    Previous Weekly High 11.1437
    Previous Weekly Low 10.804
    Previous Monthly High 11.1373
    Previous Monthly Low 10.518
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.8334
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.8532
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.8053
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.7617
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.7218
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.8888
    Daily Pivot Point R2 10.9287
    Daily Pivot Point R3 10.9723

     

     

  • 03.05.2024 19:55
    USD/NOK dives on weak NFP figures from April
    • US NFP increased by 175K in April, below expectations of 243K, following March’s revised increase of 315K.
    • Unemployment rose slightly to 3.9% while wage inflation decelerated.
    • The odds of a cut in September by the Fed rose significantly.

    The USD/NOK pair is trading at 10.861, exhibiting a decline of 1.19% on Friday’s session. The USD faced downward pressure as markets are now betting on higher chances of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, following the report of weak Nonfarm Payrolls.

    April's NFP report from the US showed a gain of 175K jobs, which was significantly below the market expectation of 243K and a decrease from March's revised figure of 315 K. This slowdown in job growth, combined with the slight rise in the unemployment rate from 3.8% to 3.9%, points towards a cooling labor market. Moreover, the wage inflation rate also dipped from 4.1% to 3.9% annually, suggesting softer wage pressures, which can influence the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy. The report's overall outcome, reflecting a deceleration in several key employment metrics, highlights a potentially weakening economic momentum.

    This supports a more cautious monetary policy approach, aligning with the Federal Reserve's recent moves towards policy normalization and possibly setting the stage for a first cut in September which according to the CME FedWatch tool, increased above 50%.

    USD/NOK technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/NOK pair has moved into negative territory. The indicator was trending positively, nearing overbought conditions, but then reversed to bearish, signaling a tendency for a sell-off. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints red bars, confirming the presence of strong selling pressure.

    Analyzing the broader outlook, it's crucial to note the USD/NOK has made significant strides today, dipping below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, the pair remains firmly above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs. This reveals a potentially bearish short-term trend but confirms the bullish long-term position of the USD/NOK.

    USD/NOK daily chart

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