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CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Swedish Krone (USDSEK)

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Over the past 10 days
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  • 21.05.2024 18:15
    USD/SEK holds resilient and defends key SMAs
    • USD/SEK is holding steady at 10.69 and cleared daily losses.
    • High-ranking members of the Federal Reserve maintain a cautious stance, resisting rushing into rate cuts.
    • Investors await FOMC's meeting minutes for May this Wednesday, which will provide deeper insights into the Federal Reserve's policy roadmap.

    The USD/SEK pair trades at 10.69, after falling below the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) clearing all of its daily losses. This is due to the USD holding its ground on the back of cautious comments of the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials which ask for patience on rate cuts.

    In that sense, on a quiet week, Federal Reserve official's comments are the highlight of each session and they echoe caution in the face of robust growth and persistent inflation in the US, seeming to rule out immediate rate cuts. The expectation is that this Wednesday's FOMC meeting minutes might reveal deeper insight into the Fed's expected roadmap which could change the expectations of the easing cycle. Later this week, on Thursday, weekly Jobless Claims figures and S&P PMIs from May might trigger movements on the USD and Friday’s Durable Goods orders data from April as they might give further insights into the health of the US economy.

    USD/SEK technical analysis

    In the daily overview, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for USD/SEK remains within negative zone. The latest reading is just below the 50 mark, thus projecting a slight inclination towards sellers. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) demonstrates flat red bars, indicating a steady negative momentum for the pair.

    USD/SEK daily chart

    In relation to the overall trend, the pair is below the 20-day SMA but holds above the 100 and 200-day SMAs. This configuration implies a blend of long-term bullishness and short-term bearishness. Notably, on Tuesday, buyers successfully defended the 100 and 200-day SMA at both 10.55 and 10.62, indicating that the buyers remain resilient and that if the bears fail to breach these levels, a bullish flip might be seen in the next session.

     

    USD/SEK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.6937
    Today Daily Change 0.0057
    Today Daily Change % 0.05
    Today daily open 10.688
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.8316
    Daily SMA50 10.7142
    Daily SMA100 10.546
    Daily SMA200 10.663
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.7184
    Previous Daily Low 10.6684
    Previous Weekly High 10.9072
    Previous Weekly Low 10.638
    Previous Monthly High 11.0627
    Previous Monthly Low 10.4914
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.6875
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.6993
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.6648
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.6415
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.6147
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.7148
    Daily Pivot Point R2 10.7417
    Daily Pivot Point R3 10.7649

     

     

  • 15.05.2024 18:10
    USD/SEK declines as markets digest US Retail Sales and CPI figures
    • US CPI and Retail Sales came in lower than expected.
    • The odds of a cut from the Fed in July slightly increase, and September continues being the best-case scenario.
    • Fed officials might change their tone as economic figures showed softness.

    On Wednesday, the USD/SEK saw sharp losses as the potential for sooner interest rate cuts by the Fed, in light of the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) disinflation and lackluster Retail Sales, may exert weight on the USD.

    On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US witnessed a marginal decrease in inflation, with the headline CPI moving down from 3.5% in March to 3.4% in April. Core CPI also observed a fall, retreating from 3.8% to 3.6%, aligning with market expectations. In addition, U.S. Retail sales in April remained stagnant, a dip from the anticipated 0.4% growth.

    The cooling economic indicators imply that the Federal Reserve might contemplate a sooner start of the easing cycle which would invariably exert pressure on the USD. The CME FedWatch Tool highlights that investors have already priced in that there will be no changes in interest rates in June, but continue seeing with good eyes a cut in September. Those odds slightly increase for the July meeting but remain low.

    USD/SEK technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/SEK pair resides in negative territory. The latest reading, marking a downward trend, suggests that sellers are dominating. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is producing rising red bars, thus demonstrating negative momentum.

    That being said, strong support was noted at the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) with buyers defending the level at 10.66. This defense acts as a crucial bulwark against any potential downward trend reversals.

     

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 168.37
    Today Daily Change -0.87
    Today Daily Change % -0.51
    Today daily open 169.24
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 166.55
    Daily SMA50 164.62
    Daily SMA100 162.45
    Daily SMA200 160.61
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 169.36
    Previous Daily Low 168.47
    Previous Weekly High 167.97
    Previous Weekly Low 164.48
    Previous Monthly High 171.6
    Previous Monthly Low 162.28
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 169.02
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 168.81
    Daily Pivot Point S1 168.69
    Daily Pivot Point S2 168.14
    Daily Pivot Point S3 167.8
    Daily Pivot Point R1 169.58
    Daily Pivot Point R2 169.91
    Daily Pivot Point R3 170.46

     

     

  • 09.05.2024 20:04
    USD/SEK declines on weak US employment data
    • The SEK strengthened against the USD after the Riksbank's latest monetary policy decision to cut rates to 3.75%.
    • Officials from the Federal Reserve are expressing wary about cutting rates.
    • The USD traded weak on soft Jobless Claims figures.

    The USD/SEK pair is trading lower, indicating bearish momentum for the pair despite the persistence of inflation and robust US economic performance aiding the Dollar's recovery which fuels hawkish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed). The SEK was seen weak on Wednesday after the Riksbank decided to cut rates to 3.75% and signaled that more cuts may be incoming.

    The US Dollar faced downward pressure following the release of disappointing Initial Jobless Claims data. During the week ending May 3, the number of individuals filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose to 231K, surpassing expectations of 210K and the previous reading of 209K, revised up from 208K. This uptick in jobless claims has heightened concerns about weakening conditions in the labor market. That being said, market expectations on the Fed didn’t change, and investors are still seeing the easing cycle starting in September. All eyes will turn to next week’s inflation data from the US which may likely set the tone for the market's expectations on the Fed.

    USD/SEK technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/SEK reveals a recent move within the positive territory but it points downwards. In addition, the MACD histogram indicates rising red bars, signifying a bearish momentum. The coexistence of the RSI's positive region and the MACD's red bars demonstrates that even though bullish players dominate the market price-wise, the overall trend may be losing steam, hinting at a potential shift in market momentum.

    Highlighting the recent movements, the struggle of buyers to uphold the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 10.88 may suggest a weak short-term trend. However, the long-term scenario looks strong, considering the pair's position above the 100 and 200-day SMA.

    USD/SEK daily chart

    USD/SEK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.8516
    Today Daily Change -0.0488
    Today Daily Change % -0.45
    Today daily open 10.9004
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.8827
    Daily SMA50 10.6392
    Daily SMA100 10.4865
    Daily SMA200 10.6586
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.9491
    Previous Daily Low 10.8066
    Previous Weekly High 11.1318
    Previous Weekly Low 10.7346
    Previous Monthly High 11.0627
    Previous Monthly Low 10.4914
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.8947
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.8611
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.8217
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.743
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.6793
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.9641
    Daily Pivot Point R2 11.0278
    Daily Pivot Point R3 11.1066

     

     

  • 08.05.2024 18:39
    USD/SEK rises after Riksbank's cut and dovish outlook
    • USD/SEK maintains gains exceeding 0.40%, underscoring the Dollar's continued firmness during Wednesday's session.
    • The Riksbank sports a dovish view, trimming rates as forecasted, coupled with indications of more rate cuts in the second half of this year.
    • Fed hawks are stepping in and challenging the dovish narrative.

    The USD/SEK pair is trading higher at 10.55, marking a significant gain from a low of 10.45 last week. This uptick comes on the back of the monetary policy divergences between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Riksbank. On the one hand, the Fed’s officials are turning hawkish. On the other hand, Riksbank, with a more dovish stance, has started to cut rate cuts and may undertake additional reductions in the second half of the year if the present economic conditions prevail.

    After cutting rates to 3.75%, Governor Thedeen expressed a sense of caution, suggesting that a rate cut in June is improbable given the existing circumstances. He emphasized the concern regarding the weakening of the Swedish Krona (SEK), indicating that it needs to be taken into account. As for now, market expectations anticipate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts over the next 12 months.

    On the US side, recent dovish bets have been given up by investors, and the start of the easing cycle of the Fed is being priced in to start in November.

    USD/SEK technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the USD/SEK pair resides within the positive territory after recovering from a dip into the negative domain. The MACD histogram sheds more light on the scenario, with progressively decreasing red bars showcasing a slowdown in negative momentum.

    USD/SEK daily chart

    In regard to the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), the USD/SEK pair has reclaimed territory above the pivotal 20-day SMA. This escape from the bears not only illustrates evidence of buyers stepping in to restore short-term sentiment but also signals a potential shift in momentum. When observing the larger picture, the pair maintains a position above the 100 and 200-day SMAs, illustrating a solid long-term trend in favor of the bulls.

    USD/SEK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.9054
    Today Daily Change 0.0568
    Today Daily Change % 0.52
    Today daily open 10.8486
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.8735
    Daily SMA50 10.6278
    Daily SMA100 10.4794
    Daily SMA200 10.6575
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.8785
    Previous Daily Low 10.7876
    Previous Weekly High 11.1318
    Previous Weekly Low 10.7346
    Previous Monthly High 11.0627
    Previous Monthly Low 10.4914
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.8438
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.8223
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.7979
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.7473
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.707
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.8889
    Daily Pivot Point R2 10.9292
    Daily Pivot Point R3 10.9798

     

     

  • 06.05.2024 18:23
    USD/SEK rises after weak Swedish data
    • The USD/SEK pair commences the week with mild gains around 10.80.
    • Ahead of the Riksbank decision on Wednesday weak Swedish data pressures down the SEK.
    • Markets adjusted their bets on the Fed after the soft NFP report from the US on Friday.

    The USD/SEK pair is currently trading with mild gains to begin the week. Despite the optimism from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) projected robust Q2 growth, there are concerns that softer data might impact the USD negatively which may trigger another adjustment of the market's bets on the easing cycle. On the SEK’s side, soft PMIs seem to be applying downward pressure.

    On the data front, Sweden's April services and composite PMIs disappointed, with services registering at 48.1 compared to an anticipated 53.8, and a revised figure of 54.1. This decline contributed to a composite PMI of 49.0, down from a revised 53.0 and marked the lowest level since November. As for now, markets anticipate only a 60% chance of a cut this Wednesday from the Riksbank, although a cut becomes fully priced in for June 27.

    On the USD side, following the weak job report released on Friday, the likelihood of a July rate cut has surged to 40% from the previous 25%, and the probability of a rate cut in September is near to be price in, after standing at around 55%. The Greenback’s dynamic will be set by the incoming data as Jerome Powell stated that the bank remains data dependent. With no highlights this week, the pair pace will likely be set by the Riksbank’s tone and the market's response to it.

    USD/SEK technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the USD/SEK pair reveals a transition towards a negative trend falling towards 50. Complementing the RSI effects, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is rising yet printing red bars. This brings to light an increasing negative momentum in the market and a shift of momentum which might start favoring the sellers.

    USD/SEK daily chart

    USD/SEK

    Overview
    Today last price 10.8067
    Today Daily Change 0.0166
    Today Daily Change % 0.15
    Today daily open 10.7901
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 10.8454
    Daily SMA50 10.6062
    Daily SMA100 10.4665
    Daily SMA200 10.6548
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 10.8969
    Previous Daily Low 10.7346
    Previous Weekly High 11.1318
    Previous Weekly Low 10.7346
    Previous Monthly High 11.0627
    Previous Monthly Low 10.4914
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 10.7966
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 10.8349
    Daily Pivot Point S1 10.7175
    Daily Pivot Point S2 10.645
    Daily Pivot Point S3 10.5553
    Daily Pivot Point R1 10.8798
    Daily Pivot Point R2 10.9695
    Daily Pivot Point R3 11.0421

     

     

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