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CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Thai Baht (USDTHB)

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  • 24.05.2024 18:43
    USD/THB challenges the 20-day SMA, as the Dollar holds steady
    • The USD/THB modestly advances in Friday’s session standing near 36.63.
    • Fed officials exercising caution against premature policy easing limits further downtick in USD.
    • Better-than-expected growth in US Durable Goods Orders for April lends a helping hand to the Greenback.
    • The focus will turn to next week’s GDP and PCE data from the US.

    The USD/THB pair is trading slightly higher near the 36.63 level, showing mild gains, and bulls are challenging the 20-day SMA at 36.66. The pair remains steady as the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed), as well as strong economic indicators, justify the call for patience of the officials and hence the delay of the rate cuts.

    In the American scenario, the Federal Reserve officials maintain a cautious stance against any premature policy easing, attributing their restraint to the consistent strength of the US economy and persistent inflation. The recently released data for Durable Goods Orders in April also lends support to this stance, with an increase reporting a 0.7% rise which outperformed expectations. This outcome portrays a growing US economy that is additionally backed by firm labor market data reported in Thursday’s lower-than-expected weekly Jobless Claims.

    In the meantime, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool suggests a 53% possibility of a reduction in interest rates by September, down from over 60% earlier this week, echoing rising hawkish bets on the Fed which favors the USD.

    USD/THB technical analysis

    In the daily analysis, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a gradual shift from negative to positive territory. A rebound from near-oversold conditions on Thursday hints at a potential market recovery, with a slightly positive slope indicating growing buying momentum. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat red bars, suggesting diminishing selling traction.

    USD/THB daily chart

    Looking at the broader scope, USD/THB displays considerable resilience, standing firm above its Simple Moving Averages (SMA), and holding above the 100, and 200-day SMA thresholds, it paints a bullish signal for long-term outlooks. If buyers conquer the 20-day SMA, the outlook will also be positive for the short term.

     

     

  • 23.05.2024 18:53
    USD/THB advances as US economy signals strength
    • The USD/THB bulls gain momentum, with the pair showing a 0.56% spike.
    • Favorable PMI data and stable unemployment figures, coupled with the Federal Reserve's unwavering stance favor the USD.
    • Markets are giving up their hopes of a cut in September by the Fed.

    The USD/THB pair is gaining strength rising to 36.60 on Thursday due to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) persistent hawkish stance on maintaining high interest rates. This is backed by better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI data and low unemployment claims in the US, providing a favorable economic environment.

    The latest US data showed a robust PMI reading for May, exceeding expectations with manufacturing PMI at 50.9, up from April's 50.0, and outpacing the forecast of 50.0. The Services PMI also saw an impressive surge, reaching 54.8 from April’s figure of 51.3, significantly beating a 51.3 forecast.

    In addition, the US Labor Department declared a smaller-than-anticipated rise in unemployment benefits, which marked another positive note for the US economy. All these factors, combined with the Federal Reserve's steadfast commitment to high interest rates, benefited the Greenback against its peers on Thursday. In that sense, according to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have practically given up the hopes of a cut by the Fed until September. In that month’s meeting, investors now see just a 40% chance of the easing cycle starting.

    USD/THB technical analysis

    Within the daily view, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a transition from negative to positive territory. The market dynamics quickly flipped from an oversold to a positive trend with the latest RSI reading standing above the mid-line. The buyers appear to have gained control, offsetting prior losses and establishing a more optimistic outlook.

    Supporting this is the trend witnessed in the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, which displays declining red bars. This indicates a diminishing negative momentum, aligning with the bullish context presented by the RSI above.

    USD/THB daily chart

  • 22.05.2024 20:07
    USD/THB remains resilient and finds additional gains following FOMC minutes
    • The USD/THB pair is showing signs of resilience on Wednesday, ticking up by 0.28%.
    • FOMC’s minutes from May’s meeting showed that members are uncertain on how long it will take inflation to come back to 2%.
    • The odds of the easing starting in September slightly declined.

    The USD/THB pair trades with modest gains on Wednesday as the Greenback is resilient despite last week's weak inflation data, underpinned by the hawkish tone of Fed officials. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed no surprises and showed that the bank is confident that the job of bringing inflation down to 2% will eventually be achieved, but that they are uncertain on how long it would take them.

    On Thursday, the US will release mid-tier data including weekly Jobless Claims figures and May’s S&P PMIs. On Friday, Durable Goods data from April are due. This set of data might provide further insights on the health of the US economy which might trigger movements on the pair and the assessment of the Fed officials regarding the timing of the easing. As for now, according to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a cut in June and July remain low while those chances for the September meeting declined to 40%.

    USD/THB technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in a neutral position, registering at 49 on Tuesday. This falls within negative territory after indicating oversold conditions in the last sessions, reflecting seller dominance. A slight recovery from the oversold region hints at a potential market revival despite remaining within the negative range.

    Concurrently, the trend shown by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram supports this potential revival as it exhibits a decreasing number of negative bars, indicating a descending pattern within the red spectrum of the histogram.

    USD/THB daily chart

  • 21.05.2024 20:08
    USD/THB finds momentum as bears fail to breach the 100-day SMA
    • The USD/THB pair advanced nicely in Tuesday's session, standing at 36.36 with a rally of 0.80%.
    • The USD is holding its ground due to the measured remarks from Fed officials.
    • Wednesday's FOMC minutes, May's S&P PMIs, and April's Durable Goods Orders from the US are next in line in the economic calendar.

    The USD/THB gathered significant traction on Tuesday and rallied by 0.80% as bears exhausted after failing to conquer the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 36.05. Despite April's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reflecting stronger-than-expected inflation numbers, the USD is holding its ground as the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to ask for patience for the rate cuts.

    Given the cautious stance from the Fed officials and the wait-and-see approach perceived by the markets, any immediate movement other than technical swings for the USD/THB pair seems unlikely as it remains at a steady pace. Further insights regarding the health of the US economy could be gained from releasing US's May's S&P PMIs on Thursday and April's Durable Goods Orders on Friday which could trigger movements on the pair.

    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the May meeting, will be released on Wednesday and may also trigger volatility. As for now, markets continue to discount higher odds of the easing starting in September.

    USD/THB technical analysis

    Examining the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a minor strengthening trend for the USD/THB pair, moving away from the oversold conditions noted on Monday. The RSI has gained ground but is yet to escape the negative trend zone.

    The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, appended to this analysis, sketches a decreasing negative momentum, signaled by the decrease in red bars. Sellers currently dominate the market. Yet, the decrease in negative momentum could hint at a potential shift in balance.

    USD/THB daily chart

    The broader outlook reveals critical insights into the USD/THB's position relative to its Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). The pair's steadfast defense of the 10, and 200-day SMAs reveals that the overall trend remains bullish. However, the loss of the 20-day SMA suggests a slightly negative short-term trend.

  • 20.05.2024 20:24
    USD/THB sees red on quiet Monday, eyes on May's FOMC minutes
    • USD/THB trades at around 36.11, marking a 0.15% decrease in Monday's session.
    • Fed officials ask for caution on premature easing, despite some recent data weakness.
    • May’s FOMC minutes, April’s S&P PMIs, and Durable Goods figures from May will be the highlights this week.

    The USD/THB pair is trading mildly down on Monday after falling to a low of 36.05 earlier in the session and managed to clear most of the daily losses. The USD is holding its ground, driven by cautious comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) officials who are reluctant to loosen monetary policy prematurely.

    Fed policymakers reiterated their reluctance towards premature easing on Monday, referencing that it is too soon to consider as evidence of disinflation the recent soft inflation data. The odds of a cut by the Fed until September is bookmarked at around 35% but officials and mid-tier data this week may change those odds.

    Investors seem to be waiting for additional delivery of Fed speeches this week and for May's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes slated for release this Wednesday, hoping for greater clarity on the direction of the Fed’s outlook. On Thursday, May’s S&P readings and weekly Jobless Claims will be looked upon as well as Friday’s Durable Goods figures from April.

    USD/THB technical analysis

    Examining the daily graph, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the USD/THB is hovering in the negative territory, suggesting a hint of bearish momentum. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is displaying red bars, indicating a negative momentum. Yet, as the histogram bars are flat, these suggest a decreasing selling pressure and the potential for a lessening in the current bearish bias.

    USD/THB daily chart

    Regarding the Simple Moving Average (SMA), the pair is below the 20, 100-day SMAs. However, it is noteworthy that in Monday's session, buyers defended the 200-day SMA at the 35.83 mark. This reveals resilience, potentially impeding the bearish narrative and may trigger a bullish sentiment if sustained. This combination reveals that the pair is in a bearish trend but if the bulls remain resilient, the losses might be limited.

     

  • 17.05.2024 19:52
    USD/THB plunges and approaches the 100-day SMA, USD cushioned by Fed officials
    • USD/THB edged lower in Friday's session to stand at 36.10, showcasing a loss of 0.36%, as the bears maintain steady control.
    • Data released during the week indicates a weak US economy, igniting market predictions for early interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
    • The hopes of sooner rate cuts were offset by the cautious tone of the Fed officials.

    The USD/THB continued to lose ground on Friday despite the cautious tone seen in the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' words.

    US economic data published over the course of the week revealed signs of a potential economic slowdown. The indicators in question included April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales figures as well as mounting weekly unemployment claims - all of which momentarily pushed the US Dollar into a selling pressure spiral. Nevertheless, the USD regained traction as Fed officials including Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic and his Cleveland Fed counterpart, Loretta Mester, reassured markets of their satisfaction with the unfolding inflation scenario and its accordance with the current monetary policy expressing that they need further confidence to start cutting. However, if data continues to underperform, the USD might see further losses.

    USD/THB technical analysis

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the pair reveals a trend toward negative territory and approached oversold conditions. Simultaneously, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram presents flat red bars, signaling negative momentum with no expected substantial shift for the session.

    USD/THB daily chart

    Expanding to the broader picture, the USD/THB is situated beneath its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This indicates a robust sign of inherent bearish sentiment in the short term. Regardless of the short-term pessimistic view, the pair's ability to stay above its 100 and 200-day SMAs remains essential to keep the positive, long-term trend intact.

     

  • 16.05.2024 19:56
    USD/THB continues losing ground on soft USD data
    • The USD/THB declined to 36.20 on Thursday with sharp losses seen during the European session.
    • Signs of US economic slowdown are unveiled, as Initial Jobless Claims surpassed expectations and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in soft.
    • Given the soft US economic data, the likelihood of the Fed cutting sooner rather than later has increased.

    The USD/THB pair is trading weaker on Thursday with 0.35% losses at around 36.20. Soft Initial Jobless Claims and a reduction in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey following the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) seem to be driving the USD downwards on rising dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed).

    The Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending May 3, touched a high of 222K, outdoing forecasts and marking an upward revision of the previous week's figures which stood at 232K. Continued economic softness may mount pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), to cut rates earlier. However, markets continue to see the easing starting in September but if data continues to outperform, the Fed might consider a cut in July.

    USD/THB technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a decrease from positive territory to negative in the last session, now nearing oversold conditions. This indicates that sellers currently dominate the market. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram details rising red bars, indicative of increasing negative momentum.

    The USD/THB pair's position in relation to its Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), shows it positioned below the 20-day but above the 100 and 200-day averages. This suggests that while the short-term outlook is negative, the medium to longer outlook remains positive, as long as buyers defend these levels.

     

    USD/THB daily chart

  • 14.05.2024 20:14
    USD/THB dives as markets digest US PPI figures and Powell’s words
    • Recent US PPI data for April from the US met expectations.
    • Jerome Powell's cautionary comments on inflation and stringent policy measures instill a sense of uncertainty surrounding the USD.
    • All eyes are on Wednesday’s CPI figures from the US.

    The USD/THB saw sharp losses on Tuesday, facing mixed influences from a robust US economy and cautious posture from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Producer Price Index (PPI) didn’t show surprises as markets gear up for Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the US.

    On the US data front, the US PPI figures for April reinforced the US economic resilience showing a 2.2% year-on-year increase, in sync with market projections. Despite these robust indicators, cautiousness prevails with the Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, maintaining a vigilant watch on inflation trends and emphasizing the need for pledging that rates may need to be kept higher for longer. Markets are betting, that the bank will start cutting in September and that a November cut is already priced in. However, the outcome of the CPI report might change those odds.

    USD/THB technical analysis

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the USD/THB pair most recently recorded a level of 45. This RSI reading falls into negative territory, suggesting an elevation of selling momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints red bars, indicating an increase in negative momentum for the USD/THB pair. The amalgamation of the negative RSI and negatively trending MACD implies a dominance of sellers in the market.

     

  • 06.05.2024 20:28
    USD/THB mildly down as markets asses US job report
    • Market sentiment is skewing towards a potential test of the Dollar’s downside this week.
    • Last week’s soft NFP report from April continues to weigh on the USD.
    • Fed officials hold to Powell’s speech, lack of progress in inflation but that cuts will eventually come.

    On Monday, the USD/THB is trading lower on Monday as the USD remains weak following Friday’s weak Nonfarm Payrolls report. Several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials were on the wires, but didn’t provide additional guidance on the Fed’s stance other than the one provided in last week’s decision. The bank remains data-dependant awaiting to gain more confidence to start cutting.

    That being said, markets adjusted their expectations on the Fed and now foresee higher chances of the first cut in July and September, which may add pressure to the Dollar in the near term. These factors, along with a lack of major data releases this week for markets to digest, create an ambiance of uncertainty for the US currency, which may push the market towards a Dollar downside test this week.

    USD/THB technical analysis

    On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals a tendency towards the negative zone, with the latest reading just above 50. This hints at a potential bearish cycle in the absence of a strong buying push. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows rising red bars, indicating a gradual increase in negative momentum.

    USD/THB daily chart

    In an overview of the broader performance, the USD/THB is currently exhibiting significant long-term strength. The pair is positioned above both the 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting a resilient upward trend. On the shorter horizon, the pair remains below the 20-day SMA, which may signify that in the short term, the bear might take the lead. So the daily indicators and the pair’s position below the 20-day SMA may suggest that further downside may be on the horizon.

     

     

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