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Quotes and rates for precious metals Gold vs US Dollar (XAUUSD)

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  • 21.07.2024 23:55
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD jumps above $2,400 amid a risk-averse environment
    • Gold price holds positive ground near $2,410 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
    • High uncertainty surrounding the US Presidential election tends to be good for gold, a safe-haven asset. 
    • The first reading of US PMI, Q2 GDP, and June PCE data will influence the yellow metal this week. 

    Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers around $2,410, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday. The yellow metal edges higher amid the political uncertainty in the United States after the report that US President Joe Biden dropped out of the US presidential race.

    On Sunday, US President Joe Biden announced that he will end his reelection bid and will speak to the nation later this week in more detail about his decision. Several experts argued that Biden’s ending of his reelection campaign would increase market volatility. “With uncertainty about who the candidate will be, investors will seek a safe haven until they can assess whether or not the replacement for Biden will continue or break from the high (and possibly higher) tax, more regulation, and more government intervention policies of the Biden administration,” said Peter Earle, senior economist at the American Institute for Economic Research. 

    Additionally, the worrisome headline in China, the world’s second-largest economy, lifts the precious metal. China's $715 billion hedge fund industry is facing renewed pressure from stricter regulations coming into effect next month, pushing some investment companies to seek additional funding from white knights or even shut shop, according to Reuters. New guidelines for the fragmented industry from August 1 will impose higher asset thresholds for funds to operate, as well as tough investing and marketing rules. 

    On the other hand, the dovish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers and the increased likelihood of Fed rate cuts in September failed to boost the non-yielding Gold price on Friday. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last week that the Fed should not cut interest rates until late 2024. Investors will monitor the US economic data this week. The preliminary US S&P Global PMI and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2, along with the Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (PCE), will be in the spotlight this week. The stronger-than-expected readings could dampen the hope for a Fed rate cut this year and cap the upside for the Gold price. 

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

     

  • 16.07.2024 16:07
    Breaking: Gold hits record high as rate cut hopes surge, XAU/USD breaches $2,450

    Gold markets lurched into a fresh all-time high on Tuesday as rate markets fully price in a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed). US Retail Sales slumped flat in June, piling soft data on top of more soft data after last week's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print cooled more than expected.

    With US data softening and growing concerns about an economic downturn weighing on the US domestic economy, rate cut bets have been pinned to the ceiling and investors are piling into Gold, pushing XAU/USD to a record high of $2,465.30 during Tuesday's US market session.

    XAU/USD hourly chart

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

     

  • 16.07.2024 14:52
    XAU/USD is back on the buying side – TDS

    The top traders in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Gold are piling back into the Yellow Metal, TDS Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

    Traders pile back Gold longs

    “After a month's pause in SHFE traders’ buying activity, positioning for the top traders in SHFE Gold is now rising at a fast clip towards its previous all-time highs set in 2024Q1. This is particularly interesting as it comes at a time when our tracking of Chinese flows also points to divestment from domestic Gold ETFs, suggesting that retail traders are not behind the bid, as was likely the case earlier this year.”

    “The top traders on SHFE have now added +10t of Gold to their books over the last five trading sessions, driven almost exclusively by new longs. This also comes as discretionary traders are piling back into Comex Gold, with our analytics suggesting Gold length is potentially benefiting from the Trump trade in addition to expectations for a cutting cycle to commence.”

    “Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are also still on the bid, and our simulations of future scenarios suggest that CTAs are likely to buy both Gold and silver in most scenarios this week. Flows continue to be supportive of upside momentum.”

  • 15.07.2024 14:42
    XAU/USD: Markets come back to Gold – TDS

    Discretionary traders are piling back into Gold (XAU/USD) markets, TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali notes.

    CTAs to continue buying Gold

    “Discretionary traders are piling back into Gold markets. With this cohort now having accumulated its largest position of this cycle, our proxy suggests macro trader positioning in Gold is now somewhat larger than would be expected given the number of Fed cuts priced into rates markets over the next year.”

    “It still remains far below the highs marked in past Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting cycles, which points to some scope for additional gains should expectations for the upcoming rate cutting cycle continue to deepen. Discretionary trader longs have also been building over the last weeks, in line with the Trump trade which is also attracting interest into the Yellow Metal.”

    “Gold technicals also screen among the strongest across our Global macro radar, underscoring the high bar for Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) trend followers before they are forced to liquidate more length. While the recent downdraft in gold had catalyzed some liquidations, CTAs are now likely to return to the bid without a significant reversal south of $2370/oz.”

     

  • 14.07.2024 23:52
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges lower near $2,400 on US Dollar rebounds
    • Gold price extends the decline around $2,405 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
    • The US PPI unexpectedly accelerated in June to its highest rate since March 2023. 
    • Rising bets on Fed rate cuts might limit the precious metal’s downside. 

    Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory near $2,405 on Monday during the early Asian session. The hotter-than-expected Wholesale price inflation in the United States for June weighs on the precious metal. Traders await the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2), along with the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for July and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Mary Daly speech, which is due later on Monday. 

    Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) came in at 2.6% YoY in June from a revised up of 2.4% in the previous reading, beating expectations of 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the PPI rose 0.2% MoM in June, above the market consensus of 0.1%. Meanwhile, Producer Prices ex Food and Energy climbed more than expected on both a yearly and monthly basis. 

    Nonetheless, the downside of the yellow metal might be limited amid the expectation that the Fed would start its easing cycle sooner than expected in September. It’s worth noting that a lower interest rate generally increases the attractiveness of Gold, a non-interest-bearing investment. Financial markets are now pricing in nearly 80% odds for a 25 basis points (bps) cut in September, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. 

    Furthermore, global political uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting precious metals. On Saturday, former president  Donald Trump was shot in the ear during his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in what the FBI said was an assassination attempt, per CNN. 

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

     

  • 09.07.2024 13:57
    XAU/USD holds strong – TDS

    Gold is trading upwards ahead of Chair Powell's testimony before Congress on Tuesday, TD Securities Senior Commodity Strategist Ryan McKay notes.

    Traders watch for clues from Powell's testimony

    “Precious metals are holding strong as weaker employment data bolsters the odds of a September start to Federal Reserve (Fed) cuts. In this sense, traders are watching for any hints from Chair Powell's testimony before Congress today.”

    “As the dust settles with regard to Fed timing, macro interest may be starting to pick up in Gold as ETF positions continue to rise in July, after June saw the first monthly increase since May 2023.”

    “Furthermore, while Chinese Gold reserves were flat for a second consecutive month amid their noted pause in buying, top traders on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have added back to their net positions, highlighting Asian demand is set to remain strong.”

     

  • 08.07.2024 00:57
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges lower below $2,400, PBoC refrains from gold purchases for second month
    • Gold price edges lower to $2,385 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
    • US Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 206K in June versus 218K prior, above the expectation of 190K.
    • The Chinese central bank refrained from gold purchases for a second month, dragging the yellow metal price lower. 

    Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers near $2,385, snapping the three-day winning streak during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The downtick of the yellow metal is backed by the modest rebound of the Greenback and the Chinese central bank paused Gold buying for the second month. However, the safe-haven flows amid the political uncertainty might lift the precious metal. 

    US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) employment increased by 206K in June, above the expectation of 190K. The growth was lower than the previous reading of 218K, according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) on Friday. Meanwhile, the Unemployment rate ticked up from 4.0% in May to 4.1% in June. Finally, Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% MoM in June, matching expectations. 

    The market is currently pricing in a 77% odds of a September rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), up from 70% last Friday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Furthermore, the FOMC minutes showed that policymakers acknowledged that price pressures were easing, triggering the expectation of Fed rate cuts this year, which might drag the Greenback lower and lift the USD-denominated Gold. 

    Additionally, the political uncertainty in Europe, particularly in France, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting precious metals. According to the Economist, exit polls suggested that the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) seems to be on track to win the most seats in the second voting round of French parliamentary elections on Sunday. Investors are concerned about uncertainty as the final round of the French parliamentary elections pointed to a hung parliament.

    Elsewhere, data from China over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) refrained from gold purchases for a second month. "It appears that gold prices remain a little too high and the PBOC is waiting for a further pullback before resuming its gold purchasing programme," said Nitesh Shah, a commodity strategist at WisdomTree. It’s worth noting that China is the world’s biggest billion consumer and the pause in gold buying could weigh on the Gold price. 

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.



     

  • 02.07.2024 16:06
    Traders add back to their XAU/USD positions – TDS

    Top traders on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) have added back to their net Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/USD) positions, Senior Commodity Strategist at TDS Ryan McKay notes.

    Asian demand remains strong

    “Asian demand is set to remain strong, while nascent sings are appearing that macro interest may be starting to pick up as ETF positions are on course to post their first monthly increase since May 2023.”

    “The PCE data came in roughly in line with expectations, and the y/y pace for core PCE represents the lowest level of the cycle. Overall, inflation data continues to gradually normalize back to the trend the Federal Reserve (Fed) would like to see, but it is still not enough evidence for officials to pound the table on policy easing.”

    “In this sense, precious metals investors are likely to remain on the sidelines for the time being, with this week's job data serving as the next piece of Fed the puzzle.”

  • 01.07.2024 00:30
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attracts some sellers below $2,350 ahead of US PMI data
    • Gold prices trades in negative territory near $2,325 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
    • Inflation in the US eased to its lowest annual rate in more than three years.
    • The Middle East geopolitical tensions and the political uncertainty of France’s parliamentary election drag the Greenback lower. 

    Gold prices (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,325 on Monday during the early Asian trading hours. The precious metal loses ground amid a continuation of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious stance. Investors will keep an eye on the US June ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is expected to improve to 49.0 in June from 48.7 in May.  

    The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index readings fell as expected but remain elevated, triggering the US Fed to maintain its cautious stance. Data released from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday showed that the headline US PCE rose 2.6% on a yearly basis in May, compared to 2.7% in April, in line with the market estimation. Meanwhile, the core PCE inflation increased 2.6% YoY in May from 2.8% in April, matching expectations. 

    The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said on Friday that monetary policy is working, but it’s too early to tell when it will be appropriate to cut the interest rate. Daly further stated, "If inflation stays sticky or comes down slowly, rates would need to be higher for longer.” It’s worth noting that a higher interest rate generally weighs on the Gold price as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

    Additionally, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said that inflation is still at problematic levels and the US central bank will act to lower it. The Fed Governor Michelle Bowman noted that while current Fed policies should be enough to drag inflation back to target, adding that the central bank shouldn't be unwilling to weigh further rate cuts in inflation data proves sticky.

    Nonetheless, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty after the first round of France’s parliamentary election might boost the safe-haven flows and drag the Greenback lower, per CNN.  

     

  • 27.06.2024 14:46
    XAU/USD longs may shrink on weak PCE data – TDS

    Precious metals are on the front foot despite the mixed bag of economic data this morning, commodity analysts at TD Securities note.

    Hot PCE data to push Gold higher

    “Traders will continue to watch the data like hawks, particularly as it represents a key catalyst for the macro traders who have thus far been happy to remain underpositioned in Gold (XAU/USD) for the coming Fed cutting cycle.”

    “In this sense, the PCE data will be top of mind after the below consensus CPI and PPI data, and we look for the core segment to advance at its softest monthly pace of the year at 0.13%. Further signs that inflation is easing could start to generate more certainty around the Fed's cutting path and finally get the macro community comfortable getting back into the market.”

    “On the flip side however, we see only limited scope for downside should data come in hot. Indeed, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) hold a margin of safety above $2,208/oz before any material selling, while physical demand from central banks and Asian precious metals appetite continues to support the market.”

     

  • 27.06.2024 13:38
    XAU/USD: The price to end the year at $2,000 – ABN AMRO

    Gold (XAU/USD) prices set a high earlier in the year, but have lost momentum since then. There is a divergence in drivers and strong, traditional relationships have broken down. Analysts at ABN AMRO are cautious on the outlook for Gold prices and keep their forecast at $2,000 per ounce for December 2024.

    Gold loses upside momentum

    “Gold prices this year were supported by: investors buying the Yellow Metal on the futures markets and in other forms; central banks forming Gold reserves; technical picture. The rally has lost momentum since the high of $2,450 that was set on 20 May 2024. Prices are already under the 50-DMA.”

    “The important support zone is $2,220-2,275, where previous tops and bottoms are layered. Below that level, the next support zone is $2,115, where the 200-DMA comes in. If prices decline below the 200-DMA the long-term trend turns negative.”

    “We remain cautious for the outlook for Gold prices: the trend in Gold prices is positive, but the momentum is declining; it is unusual for Gold prices to have positive relationships with the US dollar and 5yr and 10yr US real yields; there is no shortage in physical Gold. We keep our year-end forecast of $2,000 per ounce for now.”


     

     

  • 24.06.2024 13:25
    XAU/USD: Macro positioning may be at a turning point – TDS

    Gold (XAU/USD) ETF holdings jumped by the largest amount in the last three months, commodity strategists at TDS say.

    Precious metals get support from China

    “While only a small blip on the chart, and a smaller amount than the amount added during the period of building in early June, it is still giving hope to the Gold bugs that this may finally be the turning point in macro positioning.”

    “Precious metals continue to get support from the East as top traders on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) continue to hold large positions in the Yellow Metal and Silver (XAG/USD), while inflows continue into Chinese Gold ETFs.”

    “This continues to highlight that precious metals have increasingly morphed into a currency depreciation hedge, with resumed pressures in Asia supporting buying activity.”

  • 24.06.2024 00:21
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $2,350 on stronger US PMI data
    • Gold price trades on a weaker note near $2,320 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
    • The stronger US PMI data and Fed’s hawkish stance create headwinds for yellow metal. 
    • Safe-haven flows amid the Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the Gold price’s downside.  

    Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,320 after retreating from two-week highs around $2,368 during the early Asian session on Monday. The stronger-than-expected US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on Friday weighs on the yellow metal. The final reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index will be in the spotlight this week. 

    The US economic data continues to show mixed signals in June. The recent S&P Global showed on Friday that the advanced US Composite PMI for June came in better than expected, rising to 54.6 in June from a final reading of 54.5 in May. The figure registered the highest level since April 2022. The Manufacturing PMI climbed to 51.7 in June from 51.3 in May, beating the estimation of 51.0. Finally, the Services PMI increased to 55.1 from 54.8 in May, above the consensus of 53.7.

    The Fed officials pushed out the timing of the first interest rate cut this year. Fed Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that the central bank is well-positioned with the necessary firepower for the job, but will learn a lot more over the next several months. Meanwhile, Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari noted that it will probably take a year or two to get inflation back to 2%. The stronger US economic data and the hawkish tone of US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers continue to support the Greenback and drag the precious metal lower. It’s worth noting that a higher interest rate generally weighs on the Gold price as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

    On the other hand, the safe-haven flows on the back of geopolitical and economic uncertainty might lift the yellow metal in the near term. The UN Secretary-General said on Sunday that “full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be "a  catastrophe," per the BBC. Several Palestinian children and women were killed and injured overnight Saturday in Israeli air strikes that targeted two homes in Gaza City, Anadolu news agency reported.

    XAU/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 2319.08
    Today Daily Change -3.04
    Today Daily Change % -0.13
    Today daily open 2322.12
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 2333.85
    Daily SMA50 2343.42
    Daily SMA100 2241.26
    Daily SMA200 2112.4
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 2368.79
    Previous Daily Low 2316.84
    Previous Weekly High 2368.79
    Previous Weekly Low 2306.66
    Previous Monthly High 2450.1
    Previous Monthly Low 2277.31
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2336.68
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2348.95
    Daily Pivot Point S1 2303.04
    Daily Pivot Point S2 2283.97
    Daily Pivot Point S3 2251.09
    Daily Pivot Point R1 2354.99
    Daily Pivot Point R2 2387.87
    Daily Pivot Point R3 2406.94

     

     

  • 17.06.2024 00:39
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attracts some sellers below $2,350, eyes on Eurozone political concerns
    • Gold price edges lower to $2,325 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
    • The hawkish Fed continues to underpin the Greenback and drag USD-denominated Gold lower. 
    • The Eurozone political concerns might boost the safe-haven flows and cap the downside for yellow metal. 

    Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a softer note near $2,325 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The speculation that US interest rates will stay higher for longer, with the median projection from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials calling for one interest rate cut this year, has lifted the Greenback broadly. However, the risk aversion fueled by political uncertainty in Europe might boost the safe-haven flows and cap the downside for yellow metal. 

    On Friday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that she would like to see good-looking inflation data, adding that the path towards the Fed's 2.0% inflation goal may take longer than expected. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated on Sunday that it is a “reasonable prediction” that the central bank will wait until December to cut interest rates. Kashkari added that the Fed is in a very good position to get more data before making any decisions. The hawkish comments from the Fed officials weigh on the non-yielding assets like Gold as it makes the white precious metal more expensive for overseas buyers. 

    Consumer sentiment fell to a seven-month low in June, according to the preliminary report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. The Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 3.5 points to 65.6 in June from May's final reading of 69.1. The figure came in weaker than the estimation of 72.0. Additionally, the one-year inflation expectation held steady at 3.3%, and the five-year inflation outlook rose to 3.1% from 3%. 

    On the other hand, the downside for yellow metal might be limited amid the Eurozone political concerns. France's President Emmanuel Macron called for early parliamentary elections after losing to the right-wing National Rally in the European vote. On Sunday, Macron said that Economic programs by two extremist blocks in the parliament election are not realistic, and France is at a very serious moment with major economic issues at stake. Any negative development surrounding the Eurozone or France's political concerns could provide some support to the safe-haven assets like Gold. 

    XAU/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 2332.83
    Today Daily Change 0.00
    Today Daily Change % 0.00
    Today daily open 2332.83
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 2345.22
    Daily SMA50 2345.06
    Daily SMA100 2226.43
    Daily SMA200 2101.96
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 2336.71
    Previous Daily Low 2301.64
    Previous Weekly High 2341.68
    Previous Weekly Low 2287.81
    Previous Monthly High 2450.1
    Previous Monthly Low 2277.31
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2323.31
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2315.04
    Daily Pivot Point S1 2310.74
    Daily Pivot Point S2 2288.66
    Daily Pivot Point S3 2275.67
    Daily Pivot Point R1 2345.81
    Daily Pivot Point R2 2358.8
    Daily Pivot Point R3 2380.88

     


     

     

  • 10.06.2024 00:19
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $2,300 as China stops buying gold, US Dollar rebounds
    • Gold price remains on the defensive around $2,295 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
    • The US economy added 272K jobs in May, above expectations of 185K new roles.
    • The Chinese central bank paused gold purchases in May after 18 months of buying. 

    Gold price (XAU/USD) trims losses near $2,295 despite the stronger US Dollar (USD) on Monday during the early Asian session. The yellow metal edges lower to one-month lows on Friday amid lower bets on US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year and bearish sentiment fueled by news indicating that China paused gold purchases in May after 18 months of buying. 

    The US employment data came in better than expected and prompted traders to push back the expected timing of Fed rate cuts. On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for May rose 272K from a 165K increase in April (revised from 175K), according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.0% in May from 3.9% in April. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some buyers in response to the stronger data and weighs on the gold price as it makes bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.

    The gold market is seeing a bit of liquidation, along with other metals since the data shows the US economy is quite robust and the Fed may delay that first rate cut, said Blue Line Futures chief market strategist, Phillip Streible. The financial markets are now pricing in nearly 49% odds of a rate cut for the September meeting, down from 68% before the NFP data, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    Furthermore, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), one of the world’s biggest gold buyers for years, snapped 18 months of continuous gold buying in May as the price hit record highs in April and May, per Bloomberg. The concern about decreasing demand for gold exerted some selling pressure on the precious metal. 

    China held 72.80 million troy ounces of gold at the end of May, which remained constant from the end of April, the data showed. Meanwhile, the value of China’s gold reserves increased to $170.96 billion at the end of May from $167.96 billion in April.

    XAU/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 2298.55
    Today Daily Change 4.91
    Today Daily Change % 0.21
    Today daily open 2293.64
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 2359.39
    Daily SMA50 2342.36
    Daily SMA100 2211.64
    Daily SMA200 2092.22
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 2387.8
    Previous Daily Low 2286.87
    Previous Weekly High 2387.8
    Previous Weekly Low 2286.87
    Previous Monthly High 2450.1
    Previous Monthly Low 2277.31
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2325.43
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2349.24
    Daily Pivot Point S1 2257.74
    Daily Pivot Point S2 2221.84
    Daily Pivot Point S3 2156.81
    Daily Pivot Point R1 2358.67
    Daily Pivot Point R2 2423.7
    Daily Pivot Point R3 2459.6

     

     

  • 02.06.2024 23:57
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $2,350, geopolitical risks remain in focus
    • Gold price trades softer around $2,325 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
    • The US PCE price index was not sufficient to prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, weighing on the yellow metal. 
    • Israeli Prime Minister begrudgingly accepted the US President's plan for a ceasefire in Gaza on Sunday.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,325 on Monday during the early Asian trading hours. The yellow metal trims gains after the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data for April showed price pressures cooled in April. Meanwhile, the ongoing Middle East geopolitical risks might provide some support to gold, traditional safe-haven assets. 

    The recent US PCE inflation report was not sufficient to prompt a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, and the central bank might need some time to achieve its goal. Investors initially anticipated the first rate cut to come in March, but it got pushed to September. This, in turn, weighs on the precious metal as it increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. 

    The US PCE price index rose 0.3% MoM in April, while the annual PCE figure increased 2.7% YoY. Both figures came in as expected, according to the Commerce Department, on Friday. Meanwhile, the Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy, advanced 0.2% MoM in April as compared to a 0.3% gain in March. On an annual basis, the core PCE price index climbed 2.8% for the third consecutive month.

    On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's administration reluctantly agreed to President Biden's proposal for a Gaza cease-fire. The negotiations take place as the attack in Rafah continues after intensive Israeli airstrikes over the weekend, per the BBC. Investors will monitor the developments surrounding the geopolitical tensions. Any signs of escalating risks could boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the gold price. 

    XAU/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 2325.17
    Today Daily Change -2.17
    Today Daily Change % -0.09
    Today daily open 2327.34
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 2356.94
    Daily SMA50 2327.22
    Daily SMA100 2196.2
    Daily SMA200 2081.98
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 2359.75
    Previous Daily Low 2320.65
    Previous Weekly High 2364.15
    Previous Weekly Low 2320.65
    Previous Monthly High 2450.1
    Previous Monthly Low 2277.31
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2335.59
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2344.81
    Daily Pivot Point S1 2312.08
    Daily Pivot Point S2 2296.81
    Daily Pivot Point S3 2272.98
    Daily Pivot Point R1 2351.18
    Daily Pivot Point R2 2375.01
    Daily Pivot Point R3 2390.28

     

     

  • 20.05.2024 00:50
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD gains ground above $2,400, eyes on Fedspeak
    • Gold price kicks off the new week on a positive note near $2,415. 
    • The softer US inflation data has prompted the Fed’s rate cut expectation, lifting the yellow metal.
    • The hawkish comments from Fed officials might cap the precious metal’s upside. 

    Gold price (XAU/USD) gathers strength around $2,415 during the early Asian session on Monday. The softer US inflation data in April provides some support to the yellow metal. Meanwhile, the USD Index (DXY), the value of the US dollar measured against a group of six foreign currencies, edges lower to 104.50, losing 0.03% on the day.  Investors will take more cues from the Fed’s Bostic, Barr, Waller, Jefferson, and Mester on Monday.

    The growing speculation that the US  Federal Reserve (Fed) could lower rates in 2024 provides some support to XAU/USD as the lower rate increases the attractiveness of non-yielding Gold to investors. Both US CPI inflations for April dropped to 0.3% MoM from a 0.4% rise in the previous reading. Both the headline and Core CPI printed lower but in line with market expectations. 

    On the other hand, the cautious approach from the Fed might cap the upside of the precious metal, as higher interest rates might well reduce overall investment demand for non-yielding gold. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he thinks the US central bank will need more data to gain confidence on whether inflation is steadily falling towards 2%. Also, many Fed officials emphasised the need to hold the rate higher for longer, which boosts the Greenback broadly. 

     

    XAU/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 2424.06
    Today Daily Change 8.66
    Today Daily Change % 0.36
    Today daily open 2415.4
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 2335.4
    Daily SMA50 2288.93
    Daily SMA100 2164.27
    Daily SMA200 2059.01
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 2422.81
    Previous Daily Low 2374.06
    Previous Weekly High 2422.81
    Previous Weekly Low 2332.25
    Previous Monthly High 2431.61
    Previous Monthly Low 2228.58
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2404.19
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2392.68
    Daily Pivot Point S1 2385.37
    Daily Pivot Point S2 2355.34
    Daily Pivot Point S3 2336.62
    Daily Pivot Point R1 2434.12
    Daily Pivot Point R2 2452.84
    Daily Pivot Point R3 2482.87

     


     

  • 12.05.2024 23:56
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends the rally near $2,360 amid geopolitical risks
    • Gold price kicks off the new week on a positive note around $2,360 on Monday. 
    • The hawkish comments from the US Fed might weigh on the yellow metal. 
    • The escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions could cap the downside of the gold price. 

    The gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside near $2,360 on Monday during the early Asian trading hours. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost safe-haven flows and benefit precious metals. Later this week, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Retail Sales will be in the spotlight and might offer some hints about the economic outlook and inflation trajectory. 

    Several US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials delivered hawkish messages last week. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that she didn’t expect it would be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates in 2024, citing elevated inflation in the first several months of the year. Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari noted that he is in “wait and see mode” about future monetary policy.

    US consumer sentiment fell sharply in May to the lowest level in six months amid stubbornly high inflation. The preliminary US University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 67.4 in May from a final reading of 77.2 in April, below the market consensus of 76.0. The final reading of US CPI inflation for April is expected to ease to 3.4% YoY in April from the previous reading of 3.5%. The hotter-than-expected data might dampen hope for US rate cuts and drag the gold price lower. 

    On the other hand, the Israeli military said that it launched operations in northern Gaza overnight and that "precise operations" are ongoing in eastern Rafah and near the Rafah border, as well as in the Zeitoun neighbourhood in central Gaza. The military engagement in Rafah occurs before a full-scale invasion, per CNN. The ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East might lift the price of precious metals, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

    XAU/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 2360.98
    Today Daily Change 0.36
    Today Daily Change % 0.02
    Today daily open 2360.62
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 2336.64
    Daily SMA50 2264.18
    Daily SMA100 2148.73
    Daily SMA200 2047.8
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 2378.53
    Previous Daily Low 2345.34
    Previous Weekly High 2378.53
    Previous Weekly Low 2291.89
    Previous Monthly High 2431.61
    Previous Monthly Low 2228.58
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2365.85
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2358.02
    Daily Pivot Point S1 2344.46
    Daily Pivot Point S2 2328.31
    Daily Pivot Point S3 2311.27
    Daily Pivot Point R1 2377.65
    Daily Pivot Point R2 2394.69
    Daily Pivot Point R3 2410.84

     


     

  • 08.05.2024 11:13
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD strives for direction as uncertainty over Fed rate cuts deepen
    • Gold price is slightly up near $2,315 even though the US Dollar recovers sharply.
    • Worsening Middle East tensions keep the downside in the Gold price supported.
    • The US Dollar recovers after Fed Kashkari’s hawkish guidance on interest rates.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles for a direction in Wednesday’s London session. The precious metal is stuck in a tight range slightly above the crucial support of $2,300.

    The yellow metal is up marginally by 0.10% despite a strong recovery in the US Dollar. Generally, the appeal for dollar-denominated Gold weakens when the US Dollar rises. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to 105.50. A hawkish guidance from Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Neel Kashkari on interest rates, delivered on Tuesday, boosted the US Dollar’s appeal.

    Neel Kashkari said he wants to see multiple positive inflation readings, which could build confidence that inflation is on course to return to the desired rate of 2%, before moving to a policy normalization stance. Kashkari supported keeping interest rates steady for the entire year as progress in the disinflation process has stalled due to the strong housing market.

    No progress in speculation for a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine has kept the Gold price well-supported. Israel is looking to extend its military activities to Rafah, the southern part of Gaza, where it believes that displaced Palestinians have been sheltered.

    The expectations of an Israel-Palestine truce soften after Israel denied the ceasefire proposal, which was agreed by Palestine. Historically, worsening geopolitical tensions improve demand for safe-haven assets, such as Gold.

    Gold technical analysis

    Gold price is rangebound in the $2,280-2,330 region for more than a week, exhibiting indecisiveness among market participants. The precious metal remains sticky to the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2,314.60, which suggests a consolidation ahead.

    The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.

    Gold four-hour chart

    XAU/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 2315.59
    Today Daily Change 1.43
    Today Daily Change % 0.06
    Today daily open 2314.16
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 2338.42
    Daily SMA50 2246.03
    Daily SMA100 2139.72
    Daily SMA200 2041.79
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 2329.98
    Previous Daily Low 2310.06
    Previous Weekly High 2346.76
    Previous Weekly Low 2277.31
    Previous Monthly High 2431.61
    Previous Monthly Low 2228.58
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2317.67
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2322.37
    Daily Pivot Point S1 2306.15
    Daily Pivot Point S2 2298.15
    Daily Pivot Point S3 2286.23
    Daily Pivot Point R1 2326.07
    Daily Pivot Point R2 2337.99
    Daily Pivot Point R3 2345.99

     

     

  • 05.05.2024 23:59
    Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below $2,300, Fedspeak eyed
    • Gold price trades on a softer note near $2,295 on Monday.
    • The Nonfarm Payrolls arrived at 175K in April vs. 315K rise prior, weaker than expected.
    • Fed’s Bowman said she remains willing to raise rates further if data shows inflation progress has stalled or reversed.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) loses its recovery momentum around $2,295 on Monday during the early Asian session. Investors will keep an eye on Fedspeaks this week, along with the first reading of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May on Friday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a weighted basket of currencies used by US trade partners, edges higher to 105.12, bouncing off nearly one-month lows.

    The US Employment data on Friday showed some signs that the US economy is slowing. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) came in at 175K in April from 315K rise (revised from 303K) in March, weaker than 243K expected. This figure registered the smallest gain since October 2023. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate ticked up to 3.9% and Average Hourly Earnings declined by 3.9% YoY in April. Finally, the ISM Services PMI fell into contractionary territory, arriving at 49.4 in April from 51.4 in March, below the market consensus of 52.0.
     
    After the data release, the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut increased, with traders expecting 38 basis points (bps) of rate cuts toward the end of the year. The precious metal climbed to $2,320 due to the downbeat US economic data but erased its earlier gains after the hawkish remarks from the Fed.

    Fed Governor Michelle Bowman was hawkish in a recent interview, saying that she’s willing to hike rates if inflation stalls or reverses. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that the latest US employment report was solid, emphasizing that current monetary policy is restrictive. These comments from Fed officials, along with the risk-on mood, diminish the appeal of non-yielding metals.

    XAU/USD

    Overview
    Today last price 2295.38
    Today Daily Change -6.42
    Today Daily Change % -0.28
    Today daily open 2301.8
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 2341.12
    Daily SMA50 2234.65
    Daily SMA100 2133.79
    Daily SMA200 2038.22
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 2320.81
    Previous Daily Low 2277.31
    Previous Weekly High 2346.76
    Previous Weekly Low 2277.31
    Previous Monthly High 2431.61
    Previous Monthly Low 2228.58
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2293.93
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2304.19
    Daily Pivot Point S1 2279.14
    Daily Pivot Point S2 2256.47
    Daily Pivot Point S3 2235.64
    Daily Pivot Point R1 2322.64
    Daily Pivot Point R2 2343.47
    Daily Pivot Point R3 2366.14

     

     

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