Quotes and rates for precious metals Gold vs US Dollar (XAUUSD)

• Gold price loses momentum to around $2,650 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Weaker Chinese economic data undermine the Gold price. 
• The US PPI report and Middle East geopolitical risks could support the yellow metal. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,650, snapping the two-day winning streak during the early Asian session on Monday. The downbeat Chinese economic data and firmer Greenback weigh on the precious metal. Nonetheless, the prospects of further interest rate cuts this year and safe-haven demand might cap its downside. 

China's deflation pressure increased in September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly eased in September, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell more than expected during the same period, highlighting the need for more stimulus measures. The persistent deflationary pressure in China is likely to exert some selling pressure on the yellow metal, as China is the world's largest Gold consumer. 

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in September, indicating a still-favorable inflation outlook and supporting the bets of the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in November. "The PPI numbers leaned friendly for the precious metals market bulls and suggest the Fed remains on track for two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year," said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals.

Additionally, the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered the fear of wider war in the region, boosting the traditional safe-haven assets like the Gold price. On Sunday, at least four Israeli soldiers were killed and more than 60 people were injured by a drone attack in north-central Israel, per CNN. The number of injuries makes the attack one of the bloodiest on Israel since the war started last October. Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for the attack.

• Gold price attracts some sellers to $2,650 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 254,000 in September vs. 159,000 prior, as expected. 
• Rising Middle East geopolitical tensions could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day near $2,650 on Monday during the early Asian session. The further upside in the US Dollar (USD) after the upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday exerts some selling pressure on the yellow metal. 

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States climbed by 254,000 in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday. The figure topped was above August's revised 159,000 and above the market consensus of 140,000. The Unemployment Rate ticks lower to  4.1% in September, down from 2.4% in August. These encouraging US reports dampen the hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut the deeper interest rate, which lifts the Greenback and weighs on the USD-denominated Gold price. 

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that he thinks the recent employment data was "superb" and noted that additional reports like this would increase his confidence that the US economy has reached full employment with low inflation. 

On the other hand, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the price of gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip on Sunday ahead of the one-year anniversary of the October 7 attacks that launched the conflict. Israel's defense minister proclaimed all possibilities for reprisal against Iran.

• Gold price drifts higher to $2,665 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Fed rate cuts support the Gold price. 
• Investors await the Chinese PMI, which is due on Monday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers to near $2,665 during the early Asian session on Monday. The geopolitical risks and firmer expectation of another oversized interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November lift the precious metal. 

Israel continues to launch airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, killing more than 100 people and wounding over 350 others Sunday, per CNN. Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has fuelled tensions in the Middle East and escalated the conflict along the border with Lebanon, which might boost the safe-have flows, benefiting the Gold price. 

Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Friday showed the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.2% year-over-year in August, compared to 2.5% in July, softer than the expectations of 2.3%. Meanwhile, the core PCE jumped 2.7% over the same period, matching market estimations. On a monthly basis, the PCE Price Index increased by 0.1%, aligning with analysts' predictions.

The PCE data provided the latest sign that price pressures are easing in the US and triggered the expectation that the Fed will further cut the interest rate this year. A rate cut by the US Fed is likely to boost the appeal of the non-interest-bearing Gold price. 

Gold traders will monitor the Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for fresh impetus. The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve to 49.5 in September from 49.1, while the Services PMI is estimated to rise to 50.4 in September from 50.3 in the previous reading. The weaker-than-expected data might weigh on the yellow metal as China's largest gold importer. 

• Gold price posts modest losses around $2,620 in Monday's early Asian session. 
• US Fed rate cut and geopolitical risks boost the precious metal.
• The positive view for US growth and stronger US economic data could weigh on the XAU/USD price. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $2,620 but remains near the all-time high on Monday during the early Asian session. An aggressive interest cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East lift the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) slashed its interest rates by a surprise 50 basis points (bps) last week following a two-day meeting and signaled that more cuts are likely before the end of 2024. A rate cut by the US Fed is likely to boost the appeal of the non-interest-bearing Gold price.  

Additionally, fears of an escalation of tensions in the Middle East after Hezbollah vows retaliation for a pager attack provide some support to the yellow metal price. Hezbollah and Israel exchanged heavy fire on Sunday, as the Lebanese militant group launched missiles deep into northern Israeli territory after facing some of the most intense bombardment in almost a year of conflict, per CNN. 

The upside of the precious metal might be capped by the Fed’s broadly positive outlook for US growth. The Fed forecasts that the US economy will expand about 2.0% per year until the end of 2027, suggesting a soft landing profile for the economy. This, in turn, might drag the safe-haven Gold lower. 

Looking ahead, Gold traders will closely monitor the development surrounding the Middle East geopolitical risks. Furthermore, the flash reading of the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be released later on Monday. In case of the stronger-than-expected outcome, this could underpin the Greenback and exert some selling pressure on the USD-denominated Gold price. 
 

• Gold price trades in positive territory near $2,580 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Firmer Fed rate cut expectations and persistent geopolitical risks continue to underpin Gold price. 
• Slow momentum in Chinese economic activity might weigh on the precious metal. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum around $2,580 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal reached a fresh all-time high at $2,586 on Friday amid rising expectations of a significant Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday will be in the spotlight.

The growing speculation of an interest rate cut by the Fed after US economic data signaled a slowing of the economy has boosted the yellow metal as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold. Financial markets are now pricing in a 48% chance of a 25 basis points (bps ) US rate cut at its upcoming meeting on September 17-18, while the odds of a 50 bps cut stand at 52%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

“We are headed towards a lower interest rate environment, so gold is becoming a lot more attractive… I think we could potentially have a lot more frequent cuts as opposed to a bigger magnitude,” said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold. 

Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provide further support to the safe-haven Gold price. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that Yemen's Houthis will pay a "heavy price" after a missile fired by the group landed in central Israel, per the BBC. 

Nonetheless, the sluggish economy and the concerns about the economic slowdown in China might cap the upside for precious metals as China is the world's biggest producer and consumer. The Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production were weaker than the expectation in August. Industrial output grew at the slowest pace since March, while Retail Sales had their second-slowest month of the year. 

• Gold price trades in negative territory around $2,500 in Monday’s early Asian session.
• The US Core PCE inflation remains unchanged at 2.6%, matching June's increase, below the consensus of 2.7%. 
• Any signs of a Chinese sluggish economy might weigh on the Gold price. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) softens near $2,500 on Monday during the early Asian trading hours, pressured by the stronger US Dollar (USD). However, the downside of the yellow metal might be limited as a September interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) remains in play.

The Commerce Department revealed on Friday that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% MoM in July, matching the market expectation. On a yearly basis, the PCE inflation remained unchanged at 2.5% in July. Meanwhile, the core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% for the month but rose 2.6% from a year ago. The annual figure was slightly softer than the 2.7% expected. 

Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold, said that the PCE report confirmed inflation is no longer the Fed's main concern, as they have shifted their focus to unemployment data, which further validates the potential rate cuts in September.

Traders slightly raised bets of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September to around 70%, with a 50 bps reduction possibility standing at 30% following the PCE inflation report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The firmer Fed rate cut expectation is likely to support the Gold price in the near term as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Israel’s largest labor group is planning a nationwide strike on Monday, the strongest push yet to force the government into a Gaza cease-fire and secure the release of hostages held by Hamas, per Bloomberg. Investors will closely watch the developments surrounding the conflicts in the Middle East. Any signs of escalating tensions in the region could boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Gold Price. 

However, physical gold demand concerns and the sluggish economy in China might cap the precious metal’s upside as China is the world’s top buyer for Gold. The Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI for August is due on Monday, and is estimated to improve to 50.0 versus 49.8 prior. The weaker-than-expected outcome could weigh on the XAU/USD price. 

• Gold price gains momentum around $2,515 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Fed’s Powell said "the time has come" for the US Fed to begin lowering interest rates.
• The escalating tensions in the Middle East might further boost safe-haven assets like Gold. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds positive near $2,515 an ounce during the early Asian session on Monday amid the weaker US Dollar (USD) and dovish comments from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The uptick of the yellow metal is bolstered by the speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, signalling that time has come for interest rate cuts starting this September.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered the dovish message at the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on Friday, which has weighed on the USD broadly. Fed’s Powell said that "the time has come" for the central bank to begin lowering interest rates. Powell acknowledged recent softness in the labor market in his speech and stated that the Fed did not "seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.” 

Financial markets have fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, while the chance for a deeper cut stands at 36.5%, up from 24% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The growing expectations of easing monetary policy by the Fed might further support the precious metal as it makes gold more attractive for other currency holders.

Furthermore, Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel early on Sunday, as Israel's military said it carried out a wave of pre-emptive strikes across southern Lebanon to thwart a large-scale rocket and drone attack by Hezbollah, per Reuters. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven asset demand, benefiting the Gold price. 

• Gold price holds steady near $2,515  in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• The softer USD and bets of Fed easing monetary policy support the Gold price. 
• The Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium will take centre stage on Friday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades flat around $2,515 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. However, the weaker US Dollar (USD) and the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely cut interest rates in September might underpin the yellow metal. 

The weaker US Dollar amid expectations of easing monetary policy by the Fed ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium might provide some support to the precious metal as it makes gold more attractive for other currency holders. Markets have priced in about a 67.5% possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

"The primary drivers of the gold price move are financial investment demand, particularly with ETF buying improving and overall improved sentiment as the expectations of the Fed easing cycle begin in September," said Aakash Doshi, head of commodities, North America at Citi Research. 

Traders will closely watch Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday for more cues on rate cuts. Dovish comments from the Fed officials might further lift the yellow metal. Furthermore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven asset demand, benefiting the Gold price. 

On the other hand, signs of weaker physical demand in China might cap the upside for Gold. Data showed that the country’s Imports of the precious metal in July fell 24% to 44.6t, the lowest level in more than two years. The sluggish economy in China could weigh on the precious metal as China is the largest producer and consumer of gold. 

• Gold Price trades flat near $2,500 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
• Fed’s dovish remarks and rate-cut bets underpin the Gold price. 
• Easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East might cap the upside for XAU/USD. 

Gold Price (XAU/USD) hovers around $2,500 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The rising expectation of the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September and further US dollar weakness are likely to underpin the precious metal in the near term. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole will take center stage on Friday. 

The yellow metal reached a new all-time high of $2,509 on Friday, and the more dovish comments from the Fed officials this week might lift the Gold price as lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that the US economy does not show signs of overheating, so Fed policymakers should be cautious about keeping restrictive policy in place longer than necessary. 

Meanwhile, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that it was appropriate to discuss potential US interest rates cut in September due to concerns about the weakening labor market. 

Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak on Tuesday, with the Fed’s Raphael Bostic and Michael Barr set to speak. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium might offer some hints about the path forward for interest rates.

On the other hand, easing geopolitical risks and risk-on sentiment could cap the upside for Gold. The United States said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted a bridging proposal aimed at resolving differences between Israel and Hamas. A de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East would most likely result in the geopolitical risk premium disappearing rapidly. 

• Gold price drifts higher to $2,505 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The recent US Housing Starts added to concerns over the economy's strength and triggered the expectation of Fed rate cuts. 
• Escalating geopolitical tensions boosts the safe-haven asset like Gold. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum around $2,505 during the early Asian session on Monday amid hopes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts in September. Gold traders will take more cues from the first reading of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech this week. 

The precious metal rose to an all-time high on Friday as investors placed more bets on interest rate cuts from the US Fed in September. US economic data last week showed that Retail Sales beat estimates, but the US Producer and Consumer Price Indexes indicated inflation was subsiding. 

Additionally, the US Housing Starts fell by 6.8% in July to 1.238 million units from the 1.1% increase in June, the lowest level since 2020. This figure added to concerns over the economy's strength, especially after recent softer inflation and labor reports. This, in turn, fuels deeper reductions by the Fed and underpins the yellow metal as lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. 

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Sunday that the US economy does not show signs of overheating, thus Fed policymakers should be cautious about keeping restrictive policy in place longer than necessary. The markets are now pricing in nearly 76% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in its September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine all contribute to the safe-haven demand for gold. Conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has escalated over the weekend, despite diplomatic attempts to de-escalate tensions to prevent an expected Hezbollah-Iran strike on Israel, per the Guardian. The news agency reported that an Israeli attack on Saturday was one of the bloodiest for civilians since fighting began in October. 

• Gold price trades flat around $2,455 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• US July Retail Sales beat expectations, rising 1.0% MoM; Initials Jobless Claims fell 7K to 227K last week.
• The escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East might cap the Gold’s downside. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) flat lines near $2,455 during the early Asian session on Friday. The yellow metal seesaws between gains and losses amid the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD). Traders will focus on the preliminary of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August, along with the Building Permits and Housing Starts. 

Following the release of encouraging employment-related data and strong retail sales, speculative interest in the world's biggest economy decreased, easing fears about a potential recession. However, traders still see the US Federal Reserve (Fed) start easing the policy in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are now pricing in a nearly 80% chance of a September rate cut and expect 200 basis points (bps) of reduction in the next 12 months, though that will depend on incoming data.

Data released by the US Census Bureau on Thursday showed that Retail Sales in the United States rose by 1.0% MoM in July, compared to a decline of 0.2% in June. This figure surpassed the estimation of a 0.3 increase. Meanwhile, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 10 arrived at 227K, better than the expectation of 235K and down from the previous week of 234K. The recent stronger job data and upbeat Retail Sales have strengthened the USD broadly and weighed on the precious metal. 

Nonetheless, the elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East might provide some support to Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. Gaza’s Health Ministry says more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks since October 7, with many more buried under rubble and threatened by illness, according to local news source Aljazeera. 

• Gold price posts modest gains around $2,450 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
• The US CPI inflation rose as expected in July. 
• Any signs of rising geopolitical tensions might lift safe-haven assets like Gold. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to nearly $2,450, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Thursday. The weaker US Dollar (USD) provides some support for the precious metal on the day. Investors will take more cues from US Retail Sales, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Industrial Production, which are due later on Thursday. 

Data released by the Labor Department on Wednesday showed that inflation in the US rose as expected in July. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% MoM in July, putting an annual inflation rate at 2.9%. Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, came in at a 0.2% MoM in July and a 3.2% annual rate, which is in line with the consensus. 

“Expectations now have shifted back in favour of just a 25 basis point cut, so that could be taking some of the momentum away from the gold market,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. The markets are now pricing in nearly a 41% chance of a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed in September, down from 50% prior to the release of US CPI data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials indicated a willingness to ease the policy, though they’ve been careful not to commit to a specific timetable and the pace of rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday he wanted to see more evidence before supporting lower interest rates.  

On the other hand, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal. Iran dismissed calls from the United Kingdom and other Western nations to refrain from retaliating against Israel after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month, according to the BBC.  

• Gold price posts modest gains around $2,465 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• The escalating tensions in the Middle East increase safe-haven demand, benefiting Gold. 
• The US July Consumer Price Index report will be the highlight on Wednesday. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $2,465 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The upside of the yellow metal might be underpinned by the safe-haven flows amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Traders will closely watch the release of the US July Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is due later on Wednesday. 

Safe-haven demand from heightened tensions in the Middle East might lift the precious metal in the near term. The BBC reported on Tuesday that the United States sent a guided missile submarine to the Middle East as tensions rise in the region. The action comes in response to fears of a wider regional conflict after the recent assassination of senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. Analysts from Saxo Bank A/S noted that gold remains “supported by geopolitical risks and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts amid heightened tensions” involving Iran and Israel as well as Ukraine. 

On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that recent economic data made him "more confident" that the Fed can get inflation back to its 2% target. Still, more evidence is needed before he's ready to support lowering interest rates. 

The US CPI inflation report on Wednesday could offer some hints about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut path. The CPI is expected to increase 0.2% MoM in July, compared to the previous month of a 0.1% decline. On an annual basis, the CPI inflation is estimated to ease to 2.9% in July from 3.0% in June. 

The softer reading could fuel the chance of a Fed rate cut in September. On the other hand, a hotter inflation outcome might diminish the odds of a Fed easing policy, which is likely to exert some selling pressure on the non-yielding Gold. 

• Gold price trades on a softer note near $2,430 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Safe-haven flows amid elevated geopolitical risks might support the yellow metal. 
• Traders await key US economic data this week for fresh catalysts, including PPI, CPI and Retail Sales.

Gold price (XAU/USD) trades on a negative note around $2,430 during the early Asian session on Monday. The modest recovery of the US Dollar (USD) drags the yellow metal lower on the day. However, the downside might be limited amid the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  

Tensions in the Middle East would maintain the XAU/USD bid, with reports showing an intensification of the war. On Sunday, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant informed US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin that Iran's military preparations indicated the country is preparing for a large-scale strike on Israel, according to Axios writer Barak Ravid on X, citing a person familiar with the call. 

Heightened volatility and elevated geopolitical risks are likely to boost safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal. “In the medium term, the outlook for gold remains positive, with any dips likely to be short-lived due to underlying macroeconomic factors,” said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. 

Investors are split on whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would be aggressive in its monetary policy by announcing a 50 basis point (bps) interest rate cut or a 25 bps cut. The key US economic data this week might offer some hints about economic conditions, with the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales. The stronger-than-expected data might delay or diminish the odds of deeper Fed rate cuts, which weigh on the Gold price.  

• Gold price trades on a weaker note near $2,435 in Monday’s early Asian session, down 0.40% on the day. 
• US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 114K in July vs. 179K prior, weaker than expected. 
• The Middle East tensions might cap the gold’s downside. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to $2,435 on Monday during the early Asian session. However, the downside might be capped due to rising expectations of rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the risk-off mood amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

The disappointing US July employment data raised fears of a recession and triggered the possibility of Fed rate cuts in September. "The marketplace just now is factoring in a better-than-70% chance for a 50-basis-point cut by the Fed at the September FOMC meeting," said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals. 
 
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed on Friday that US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 114K in July from the previous month of 179K (revised down from 206K), weaker than the expectation of 175K. Meanwhile, the US Unemployment Rate rose to the highest level since November 2021, coming in at 4.3% in July from 4.1% in June. 

Investors will take more cues from the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on Monday, which is expected to improve to 51.0 in July from 48.8 in June, In the case of the stronger-than-expected data, this might lift the US Dollar (USD) and cap the upside for USD-denominated Gold. 

On the other hand, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the yellow metal. The BBC reported that several nations have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon as worries mount about a wider Middle Eastern war. Additionally, the US general in charge of American troops in the Middle East arrived on Saturday as preparations continued for a potential strike against Israel by Iran in retaliation for the killing of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, according to two US sources.

• Gold price gains ground due to increased risk aversion amid raised concerns about the US economy.
• The safe-haven demand for the yellow metal received support from escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• The dovish mood surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook supports non-yielding assets like Gold.

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to near $2,450 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Friday. Traders await upcoming US labor market data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings data for July. Recent manufacturing and employment data have raised concerns about the US economy, boosting risk aversion and supporting the safe-haven Gold.

US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) tumbled to an eight-month low of 46.8 in July, compared to the previous 48.5 reading and the forecasted move up to 48.8. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 26 rose to 249K from the previous week’s 235K, lurching past the forecast uptick to 236K.

Additionally, the safe-haven demand for Gold increases due to escalated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Tensions in the Middle East remain high following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.

According to the New York Times on Wednesday, Haniyeh was killed in Iran's capital after attending the new president's inauguration. Both Iranian officials and Hamas have accused Israel of being behind the strike.

The price of the yellow metal gained ground due to the dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy trajectory. Fed decided to keep rates unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range at its July meeting on Wednesday. Lower interest rates tend to increase the appeal of non-yielding assets like Gold.

• Fed Held rates steady at 5.25%-5.5% as expected.
• Markets await Powell's presser for further insights.
• The 2,5 and 10-year yields remain down, favoring the non-yielding yellow metal.

On Wednesday, the XAU/USD rose to $2,440 and held its ground after the widely anticipated Federal Reserve (Fed) decision.

The US Federal Reserve has again decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.5%, marking the eighth consecutive meeting without a rate adjustment. Following the decision the 2, 5, and 10-year Treasury yields remain stable at 4.36%, 4.02%, and 4.11% respectively with investors keenly anticipating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for further insights.

Regarding the statement, there weren’t major language changes and the bank still considers that the inflation is somewhat elevated. There was no clear guidance regarding the September meeting which could be considered hawkish. As such the bank hints that it remains data-dependant.

XAU/USD Technical analysis

The overall outlook is positive with the price above the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). Indicators also remain in positive terrain which indicates steady buying pressure. For the next sessions, markets should eye the $2,400 - $2,490 (cycle high) range for movements.

XAU/USD Daily chart

• Gold price gains ground near $2,395 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The easing PCE inflation data on Friday has paved the way for a widely anticipated September rate cut.
• The sluggish Chinese economy and less demand for Gold from Asian central banks might cap Gold’s upside. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to $2,395 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The yellow metal gains ground on the hope of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September after cooling US inflation data. Investors will closely watch the Fed Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, with no change in rate expected. 

The recent evidence of progress on inflation has triggered expectations that the Fed would start easing monetary policy in September, which boosts the price of precious metals as lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Market analyst at forex.com, Fawad Razaqzada, said that the mixed-to-weaker US data on Friday indicated inflationary pressures and economic activity are waning, paving the way for the Fed to cut rates twice this year. 

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased 0.1% MoM and was up 2.5% YoY in June, in line with the market consensus, according to the Commerce Department. The year-over-year gain in May was 2.6%, while the monthly figure was unchanged. 

Meanwhile, core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose to 0.2% MoM from 0.1% in May. The annual core PCE rose to 2.6% in the same period, compared to 2.5% in May. Both figures matched expectations. Investors are now pricing in nearly 90% odds of a Fed rate cut in September, followed by another cut in November and December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 

On the other hand, the sluggish Chinese economy and the lower buying interest of China's central bank might cap the upside for Gold as China is the largest producer and consumer of gold worldwide. Additionally, TD Securities analysts said that Gold will probably continue to face pressure from the effects of overweight long-positioning and a fall in Asian demand.