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Quotes and rates for precious metals Gold vs US Dollar (XAUUSD)
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05.03.2024 11:39Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to average $2025 in 2024 – NAB
Gold has risen above $2,100. Economists at National Australia Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Central bank purchases of Gold have exceeded 1000 tonnes a year in both 2022 and 2023
Given Gold’s perceived value as a hedge against inflation, the downward trend in global inflation since late 2022, along with recent equity rallies, would generally be seen as negative pressures on Gold prices. However, central bank purchases of Gold have exceeded 1000 tonnes a year in both 2022 and 2023 – led by China and Poland – while consumer demand in China has been strong (reflecting domestic economic uncertainty).
We forecast Gold prices to average $2,025 in 2024, up from around $1,942 in 2023.
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05.03.2024 10:46Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to remain volatile in the coming months – ING
US Dollar strength and central bank tightening weighed on the Gold market for most of last year. XAU/USD awaits clarity on Fed easing path, economists at ING say.
Fed policy remains key for Gold
Federal Reserve policy will remain key for the outlook of Gold prices in the months ahead.
Swaps markets suggest investors don’t see much chance of a reduction in interest rates until June. Our US economist agrees. This will support the Dollar and weigh on the Gold price in the short term.
We expect Gold prices to remain volatile in the coming months as the market reacts to macro drivers, tracking geopolitical events and Fed rate policy.
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05.03.2024 09:54Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to extend its race higher once hurdle at $2,135/$2,140 is overcome – SocGen
Gold (XAU/USD) topped $2,100 on Monday. Economists at Société Générale analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
$2,075 is near-term support
Gold has established itself above the upper part of multi-year range ($2,075) in the form of a rectangle; this denotes the uptrend has resumed. It is fast approaching the peak achieved in December near $2,135/$2,140 which is also the trend line connecting highs of 2011 and 2020. This could be a tentative resistance but break from multi-year consolidation points towards possibility of larger upside.
Upper limit of the rectangle at $2,075 is near-term support.
Once Gold overcomes the hurdle at $2,135/$2,140, the up move is likely to extend; next objectives could be located at projections of $2,250 an $2,360.
Target for the rectangle is located at $2,460.
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05.03.2024 08:58Gold Price Forecast: Monetary policy likely to switch to an easing bias, a boon for XAU/USD – ANZ
Gold (XAU/USD) has rallied above $2,100. Strategists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Investor demand rises
Gold flirted with a record high, surging above $2,100, as investors continued to pour into the safe haven asset. The uncertain economic backdrop, combined with geopolitical risks has seen investor demand rise. This comes as monetary policy likely switches to an easing bias, a boon for non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Robust buying is emerging in the physical market, with inflows into the Gold-backed SPDR Gold Share ETF rising for the first time in nine trading sessions.
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04.03.2024 22:06Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises to highs since December ahead of labor market figures from the US
- The XAU/USD is currently trading at $2,115, its highest since early December.
- The underlying strength in gold stems from softer US inflation numbers and soft economic data reported last week.
- Investors are discounting higher odds for the Fed’s easing cycle to start in June.
- Labor market figures from the US will continue modeling the expectations.
The XAU/USD is currently trading multi-month highest around $2,115 as investors continue digesting last week’s weak inflation and economic activity figures from the US. As for now Market anticipations for a rate cut only start to heighten moving closer to May and significantly by June. The non-yielding yellow metal is benefitting ahead of the critical labor market data from the US expected this week, even though the general tone of data remains firm which would justify the delay of the easing cycle from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The yellow metal started gaining momentum last Thursday, after the report of soft Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) figures from January and followed on Friday after the release of weak Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for February which raised concerns on an economic slowdown. However, the Fed officials, remain firm, and attach themselves to the rhetoric of three rate cuts in 2024, starting most likely in June. If markets reaffirm their bets on the easing starting in June, the US Treasury yield may get a boost, which could limit the upside to the metal.
XAU/USD technical analysis
On the daily chart for the XAU/USD, the bulls are clearly in command with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being stationed in the overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) with rising green bars supports this bullish outlook, indicating increased positive momentum. However, as the price starts to hint at overbought signals, a correction may be forthcoming to consolidate recent gains. In the wider context, the XAU/USD pair remains above the 20,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), signifying that bullish sentiment still prevails in the long term.
XAU/USD daily chart
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04.03.2024 15:54XAU/USD tests above $2,100 as markets bet on June Fed rate cut
- Spot Gold prices are on the rise on Monday.
- Markets are expecting Fed rate cuts after middling data.
- XAU/USD pushes back into all-time high territory.
XAU/USD rose above $2,100.00 on Monday as markets lean into Spot Gold bids. Investors are ramping up bets of a June rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) after US economic data middled to softened last week.
Markets are jostling into risk-taking position ahead of this week’s key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report coming up on Friday. Traders will be looking for a softer labor figure to add to the rate cut puzzle, and broad-market hopes for a weakening US economic outlook are crystallizing into XAU/USD buying.
This week also sees the US ADP Employment Change for February as a labor data preview of Friday’s NFP, albeit one with a shaky connection in recent history. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also be speaking on Wednesday, testifying before the Financial Services Committee about the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report beginning at 15:00 GMT.
US economic data will kick the week off with Tuesday’s ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index for February, expected to soften to 53.0 from January’s 53.4.
XAU/USD technical outlook
Spot Gold is extending last Friday’s gains, tipping over the $2,100.00 handle in the early week’s trading. XAU/USD is up over a full percent bottom-to-top on Monday, and intraday bids are accelerating into the high end away from the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,038.89.
Daily candlesticks are on approach to all-time highs set in December at $2,144.48, and XAU/USD has climbed around 4% from last week’s low bids near $2,025.00.
XAU/USD hourly chart
XAU/USD daily chart
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04.03.2024 11:20Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD will move to new highs – TDS
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates its gains after reaching a fresh 2024-high above $2,080. Strategists at TD Securities analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
More data weakness needed for takeoff
It is hoped that the combination of lower yields, which are likely to attract discretionary investors into futures and ETFs, along with strong physical markets in China and robust central bank buying, will move Gold to new highs.
We believe that the yellow metal is set to move into $2,300+ territory, once there is more certainty surrounding the timing and magnitude of the pending Fed pivot.
But there will still need to be more evidence that the economy is slowing sufficiently to facilitate a steady drop in inflation before this rally becomes sustainable and moves to our target.
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04.03.2024 08:40Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to move higher if US data comes weaker than expected – TDS
Gold (XAU/USD) closed at an all-time high on Friday. Economists at TD Securities analyze the yellow metal’s outlook for the week ahead.
Data from the US could trigger a big reaction in XAU/USD
February ISM services, payrolls, wages and unemployment data may well be catalysts for Gold to move higher if they come in significantly weaker than expected. Otherwise, much of the latest gains will likely be given back.
We suspect that data will be weaker, but not so poor as to drive yields much lower. As such, the market will have to wait for our $2,300+ trading target to manifest a while longer.
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04.03.2024 07:26Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD will see a resurgence of investor interest – ING
Investment demand for Gold is yet to rebound. Economists at ING expect more investors’ interest as US interest rates fall.
ETF holdings continue to fall
Total holdings in bullion-backed ETFs have continued to decline. January saw eight monthly outflows in global gold ETFs, led by North American funds. This was equivalent to a 51-tonne reduction in global holdings to 3,175 tonnes by the end of January, as shown by data from the World Gold Council. This trend has continued in February.
Meanwhile, net long positions on the COMEX declined in January, with further declines seen in February as hopes for an early rate cut faded and the Dollar strengthened.
Looking further ahead, however, we believe we will see a resurgence of investor interest in the precious metal and a return to net inflows given higher Gold prices as US interest rates fall.
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03.03.2024 23:53Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds below the $2,100 mark, a nine-week high, eyes on Chinese Services PMI data
- Gold price holds positive ground near $2,085.55 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- The US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected, dropping to 47.8 in February from 49.1 in January.
- Fed’s Bostic said the central bank would cut rates in the summertime if the economy evolves as he expects.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rose to a nine-week high below the $2,100 mark during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The downbeat US economic data on Friday triggered speculation about the interest rate cuts later this year. Additionally, the lower US Treasury yields added impetus to the rise in investor demand for the yellow metal. At press time, the gold price is trading at $2,085.55, unchanged for the day.
Data released from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Friday showed that the US Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.8 in February from 49.1 in the previous reading. The figure registered the 16th consecutive month that it remained below 50, which indicates a contraction in manufacturing.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) held the policy rate steady at the 5.25–5.50% range at its January meeting. Investors anticipated that the Fed to lower the rate by the end of 2024. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he will monitor the longer-term trends and repeated his view that he sees the US central bank cutting rates in the summertime if the economy evolves as he expects. This, in turn, might improve the appeal of yellow metal and lift the price of gold.
Chinese Manufacturing sent mixed signals last month about the health of the economy. Investors will take more cues from the Chinese Caixin Services PMI for February on Tuesday. Additionally, the development surrounding the stimulus measure from the Chinese authorities could provide some support for the gold price.
Gold traders will keep an eye on the Chinese February Caixin Services PMI and the US ISM Services PMI on Tuesday. The Fed's Chair Jerome Powell testifies on Wednesday might offer some hints about a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. On Friday, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be in the spotlight.
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01.03.2024 16:57XAU/USD back on the high side as bidders seek $2,100 post-US ISM PMI miss
- XAU/USD climbs back over $2,060.00 on Friday.
- A miss on US ISM PMI numbers are fueling investor appetite.
- Hopes for Fed rate cuts mount with each data print that suggests easing inflation.
Spot Gold caught a bump on Friday after the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) came in below expectations, sparking renewed hopes of the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering rate cuts sooner rather than later.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for February unexpectedly slid back on Friday, printing at 47.8 versus the forecast increase to 49.5 against the previous month's 49.1.
Read more: ISM Manufacturing PMI declines to 47.8 in February vs. 49.5 expected
The Fed's latest Monetary Policy Report revealed the Fed is cautiously optimistic that inflation is coming under control, albeit with some notable sticking points in a still-tight labor market and stubborn shelter and rent prices inflation caused by housing supply constraints.
Federal Reserve MPR: Inflation expectations are broadly consistent with 2% goal
Technical outlook
Spot Gold is rallying hard on Friday, crossing $2,060.00 in the early US session and cracked $2,080.00 at the time of writing. Near-term XAU/USD bids caught a technical bounce from the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2,030.00.
XAU/USD daily candlesticks are set for a break of the $2,100.00 price handle, and the nearest technical ceiling beyond that rests near all-time highs near $2,144.48 set in early December.
XAU/USD hourly chart
XAU/USD daily chart
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01.03.2024 14:55Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to average $2,025 over the first quarter – ING
Gold prices have held above the key $2,000 level since December. Economists at ING analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Gold still shines on safe-haven demand
Ongoing geopolitical risk in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to provide support to Gold.
Prices hit an all-time high of $2,077.49 on 27 December 2023. Still, we believe the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see approach will keep the rally in check.
We expect prices to average $2,025 over the first quarter.
See – Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to trade higher this year – ING
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01.03.2024 11:59Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to trade higher this year – ING
Gold has been trading in a narrow range so far this year. Economists at ING analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Downside risks revolve around US monetary policy and Dollar strength
We expect Gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing wars and the upcoming US election.
We forecast prices to average $2,150 in the fourth quarter and $2,081 in 2024 on the assumption that the Fed starts cutting rates in the second quarter of the year and the Dollar weakens.
Downside risks revolve around US monetary policy and Dollar strength. The higher-for-longer narrative could see a stronger Dollar for longer and weaker Gold prices.
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01.03.2024 10:45Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rise due to PCE coming as high as expected is unconvincing – Commerzbank
The price of Gold rose to a four-week high of just over $2,050 on Thursday. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Gold price rises despite higher US inflation data
The price increase must come as a surprise, as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the price index for consumer spending (PCE) excluding energy and food, rose by 0.4% in January compared to the previous month, thus providing no arguments for earlier Fed rate cuts.
According to Fed Fund Futures, the first interest rate cut by the US central bank is not fully priced in until July. We also point out that the price increase has actually accelerated again in the last six months and moved away from the Fed's inflation target. Explanations that the Gold price rose because the increase in the PCE price index was as high as expected are therefore not convincing. It is also possible that some market participants had expected an even stronger rise in the PCE price index.
Sometimes you have to be satisfied with being unable to explain a price movement fundamentally. Whether this will last longer than one day is another matter.
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27.02.2024 12:01Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to rise to around $2,100 over the course of this year – Commerzbank
Strategists at Commerzbank have lowered their Gold price forecast for the end of the year by $50 to $2,100.
Outlook for the Gold price remains positive
We have lowered the path of our Gold price forecast by $50 and only see XAU/USD rising to around $2,100 over the course of this year, which would leave it just below the all-time high of $2,135 reached at the end of last year. This is largely due to the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will lower its key interest rate far less in the coming cycle than we had previously expected.
We now expect interest rates in the US to fall from the current 5.50% (the upper limit of the Fed Funds target range) to 4.25% by the end of 2025. Previously, we had anticipated a decline to 3.50%. The reason for the revision is our more optimistic view of the US economy, which is proving surprisingly resilient despite the significant rise in interest rates. Continued strong economic growth means that the US Federal Reserve should see less room for interest rate cuts.
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26.02.2024 14:28Gold Price Forecast: Confirmation of the timing and intensity of rate cuts should guide XAU/USD – ANZ
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading above $2,000 despite waning rate-cut expectations. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Central bank Gold purchases continue
Higher-than-expected core inflation data in January dimmed prospects of an early and deep Federal Reserve rate cut. In early January, the market was pricing 150 bps of cuts starting from March, but that expectation has been delayed until June and reduced to 70-80 bps. Confirmation of the timing and intensity of rate cuts should guide Gold prices.
Central banks bought 30t of Gold in December, lifting official buying at 1,037t in 2023.
Gold’s spot premium in China and India suggests healthy physical demand.
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26.02.2024 09:24Gold Price Forecast: Haven buying remains supportive for XAU/USD – ANZ
Last week, Gold (XAU/USD) recorded minor gains and ended above the $2,030 mark. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Fed officials warned patience is needed before they start cutting rates
Gold managed to eke out a small weekly gain despite policymakers remaining hawkish.
Federal Reserve officials warned patience is needed before they start cutting rates. This has seen investors dump holdings in the world’s largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF). However, haven buying remains supportive due to geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the Middle East.
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25.02.2024 23:45Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD loses ground below $2,040, US GDP data eyed
- Gold price holds below the mid-$2,000s amid a stronger US Dollar.
- The Federal Reserve (Fed) officials warned patience is needed before beginning to cut rates.
- The ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions might boost safe-haven flows and benefit the gold price.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. However, the uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate might lift the yellow metal ahead of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core CPI) on Thursday. At press time, gold price is trading at $2,034, losing 0.13% on the day.
The stronger-than-expected US inflation data in recent weeks has triggered market expectations of delaying the interest rate cuts. Last week, the Fed governor Christopher Waller said that Fed officials are in no rush to implement interest rate cuts. Investors expect that the US may not cut rates until June. That would far surpass previous expectations of March cuts. Traders are now pricing in the first rate cuts starting in June and the Fed’s most recent guidance pointed to three cuts this year.
The Houthis continue to attack commercial ships in the Red Sea and strengthen their weapons stockpile in Yemen, even though the US has carried out strikes on the group in recent weeks. The rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the gold price as it’s perceived as a traditional safe-haven asset.
Looking ahead, gold traders will monitor the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the fourth quarter (Q4), due on Wednesday, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE) on Thursday. These data could give a clear direction to the gold price. -
23.02.2024 12:51Gold Price Forecast: Further XAU/USD recovery likely to be delayed – Commerzbank
Gold (XAU/USD) has put the previous week's setback behind it and established itself above $2,000. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
XAU/USD year-end forecast lowered by $50 to $2,100
The fact that the US Federal Reserve will probably not cut interest rates until later in the year was quickly shrugged off: after all, postponed is not cancelled.
Nevertheless, our new forecast, according to which the US economy will avoid a recession and the Fed will cut interest rates later and less sharply, is likely to have consequences for the Gold price.
The rise in the Gold price that we expect will be delayed and less pronounced than previously thought. We are therefore lowering our XAU/USD forecast for the end of the year by $50 to $2,100.
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21.02.2024 14:05Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to rise towards $2,200 by year-end – ANZ
Over the past six months, Gold prices have risen over 3%. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Gold’s recent price consolidation is likely to extend till the end of Q1
Gold’s recent price consolidation is likely to extend till the end of the first quarter. However, we expect the price to rise towards $2,200 by year-end.
Upcoming elections and prospective rate cuts will support Gold investment.
See – Gold Price Forecast: Fed policy will remain key to the outlook for XAU/USD in the months ahead – ING
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