Doesn't expect a V-shaped recovery
Expects something more like negative quarters of growth this year, then gradual return to positive growth next year
It will take time for governments to lift restrictions and people to regain confidence
Uncertainty is the central issue surrounding the economy's future
Fed is committed to near-zero rates until after the crisis passes
Until price pressures move higher and unemployment data reverse its course
BoJ must pay more attention than before to heightening risks, particular focus in on the output gap
Economy sustaining momentum for hitting BoJ's price goal
BoJ can combine, enhance tools which are rate cuts increase in asset buying and acceleration of base money
Our policy is stimulating economy, but increased scrutiny is needed on cost of prolonged ultra low rate environment
If Oil prices continue to fall and clearly push down Japan's inflation, that could impact inflation expectations
No preconception on what policy decision will be made in October
Investors risk aversion easing somewhat due to progress in US-China trade negotiations
Excessive fall in super-long yields could hurt consumer sentiment by lowering returns of pension, insurance funds
Overseas economic slowdown yet to affect Japan's domestic demand
Calling economic and financial market signals for the economic outlook “mixed,” Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari signaled that he is likely to support further reductions in U.S. interest rates to support growth.
Trade tensions are making businesses cautious, he said, and the inversion of the U.S. yield curve that this week sent global stocks plummeting “is an indicator that people are nervous.” At the same time, the jobs market is strong, and so is consumer spending.
As Fed policymakers gear up for their September rate-setting meeting, he said, they will be assessing all of the data to make a decision. “I am leaning towards the camp of, ‘yes we need to give more stimulus to the economy, more support, we need to continue the expansion and not allow a recession to hit us,’” he said.
Global growth headwinds justified last week's rate cut
Trade uncertainty has amplified, could chill business investment
Doesn't see the economy heading into a recession
Continued headwinds from trade, lower policy rates from other central banks could justify lower rates
Rate cut may help to maintain inflation goal credibility
2019 inflation may fall short of target
Fed needs to tread carefully to sustain US expansion
Any adjustment in policy would be in response to incoming data
Current trade disputes could become entrenched
That could alter global trade patterns over the medium-term
China selling US Treasuries not as big a threat as it is made out to be
Flat US yield curve is a little bit worrisome
Hopes that yield curve will steepen somewhat from here
Chances of global or US recession is 'no higher than it ever was'
Fed is close to achieving its goals
Need to keep focus on price stability, employment
US economy is in good shape
Economy has rebounded pretty solidly after soft patch at the end of last year
Sees mixed messages in Q1 GDP data
Economy is well positioned to deal with challenges
Business confidence in the US has rebounded
Tariffs have had a small boost to inflation
Larger tariffs will have a bigger impact
I would prefer that we not take any stimulating position
Judging by the projections, there is still room for rate increases.
Monetary policy should now be neutral
Fed rate close is at the lower limit of the neutral range
So long as the economy is "running fine"
Aim is to get Fed benchmark rate to so-called neutral level
Slow approach to get to neutral is a good path for the Fed
Expects economic growth in the region of 2.2% to 2.5% this year
Doesn't expect inflation to exceed the 2% target
fiscal stimulus reached zenith in 2018, spending bill alone added half pct PT to GDP growth
economy also feeling cumulative impact of rate hikes
was hoped that tax cuts would boost productivity, but unlikely to bump up
sees US economy growth closer to 2pct in 2019
headwinds to US include slower global growth
Neutral Is Where We Want to Be
Not Seeing Clear Signs of Overheating Economy, Nor Material Weakening
U.S. Economy 'Beset by Increasing Uncertainties'
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, in an interview with CNBC on the sidelines of an annual press conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, said that a strong US economic growth justifies further rate hikes.
"Given the economic growth remains above the trend, inflation at 2% and very low unemployment, it is clear that the Fed has good reasons for further tightening of monetary policy," Mester said.
Mester also said that, in her opinion, US GDP growth will reach almost 3% in 2018, followed by a slowdown in 2019 and 2020. In her opinion, a gradual rate increase is the best way.
Staff Revised Up Slightly Expectation for 2018, 2019 GDP Growth
Revised Up Slightly Unemployment Rate Forecast Over Next Few Quarters
Saw Inflation Close to 2% Over Medium Term
GDP, Unemployment, Inflation Risks As Balanced
Fomc Will Still Produce Economic Projections Each Quarter
Economic Growth Appears To Have Picked Up In Current Quarter On Household Spending
History Has Shown Moving Rates Too Quickly Or Slowly Can Lead To Bad Economic Outcomes
Changes To Fomc Statement Don't Reflect Any Change In Policy Views
Do Not Want To Declare Victory On Below-target Inflation
Wouldn't Say Anything Has Happened Since March To Change Thinking On Inflation
Gradually Returning Interest Rates To Normal Level Best Way To Sustain Environment in Which Households, Businesses Thrive
Unemployment and Inflation Are Low
Main Takeaway Is That Economy Doing Very Well
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