CFD Trading Rate Australian Dollar vs US Dollar (AUDUSD)

Strong momentum indicates further the Australian Dollar (AUD) weakness; the significant support at 0.6585 is likely out of reach for now. In the longer run, AUD is expected to continue to decline; the level to watch is a significant support at 0.6585, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes.

AUD is expected to continue to decline

24-HOUR VIEW: “The sharp drop in AUD that reached a low of 0.6614 was surprising (we were expecting sideways trading). Strong momentum indicates further AUD weakness is likely. However, the significant support at 0.6585 is likely out of reach for now. There is another support level at 0.6605. To keep the momentum going, AUD must remain below 0.6665 with minor resistance at 0.6650.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a negative view in AUD since early this month. As we tracked the decline, we highlighted two days ago (22 Oct, spot at 0.6715) that ‘the rejuvenated momentum suggests that the AUD weakness from early this month remains intact.’ We added, ‘the level to monitor is 0.6620.’ AUD subsequently rebounded, but did not break our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.6705. Yesterday, in a sudden move, it plummeted to 0.6614. Downward momentum remains strong and we continue to expect AUD to decline. The level to watch is a rather significant support at 0.6585. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 0.6685.”

Strong momentum indicates further Australian Dollar (AUD) weakness; the significant support at 0.6585 is likely out of reach for now. In the long run, AUD is expected to continue to decline; the level to watch is a significant support at 0.6585, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.  

The level to watch is a significant support at 0.6585

24-HOUR VIEW: “The sharp drop in AUD that reached a low of 0.6614 was surprising (we were expecting sideways trading). Strong momentum indicates further AUD weakness is likely. However, the significant support at 0.6585 is likely out of reach for now. There is another support level at 0.6605. To keep the momentum going, AUD must remain below 0.6665 with minor resistance at 0.6650.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a negative view in AUD since early this month. As we tracked the decline, we highlighted two days ago (22 Oct, spot at 0.6715) that ‘the rejuvenated momentum suggests that the AUD weakness from early this month remains intact.’ We added, ‘the level to monitor is 0.6620.’ AUD subsequently rebounded, but did not break our ‘strong resistance’ level at 0.6705. Yesterday, in a sudden move, it plummeted to 0.6614. Downward momentum remains strong and we continue to expect AUD to decline. The level to watch is a rather significant support at 0.6585. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 0.6685.”

• AUD/USD attracts buyers on Thursday amid a modest USD pullback from a three-month high.
• Retreating US bond yields, along with stable risk sentiment, prompts some USD profit-taking.
• Bets for smaller Fed rate cuts and the US political uncertainty could limit deeper USD losses. 

The AUD/USD pair builds on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session on Thursday and recovers further from its lowest level since August 16, around the 0.6615-0.6610 region touched the previous day. The momentum lifts spot prices beyond the mid-0.6600s in the last hour and is sponsored by a modest US Dollar (USD) downtick.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreats from a nearly three-month top amid a corrective decline in the US Treasury bond yields. Furthermore, a stable performance around the equity markets prompts profit-taking around the safe-haven buck and benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie. That said, a combination of factors should limit any meaningful USD downfall and keep a lid on the AUD/USD pair. 

The markets have fully priced out the possibility of a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) as the recent US macro data suggested that the economy remains on strong footing. This, along with concerns that the spending plans of both Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republican nominee Donald Trump will further increase the deficit, should continue to act as a tailwind for the US bond yields and revive the USD demand. 

This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before confirming that the AUD/USD pair's recent sharp retracement slide from the 0.6940-0.6945 region, or the highest level since February 2023 touched last month has run its course. From a technical perspective, the overnight failure to find acceptance below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) warrants some caution before placing fresh bearish bets.

Market participants now look forward to the release of the flash US PMI prints for the month of October. Apart from this, the US bond yields and the broader risk sentiment will influence the USD price dynamics, which, in turn, should produce short-term trading opportunities around the AUD/USD pair.

• AUD/USD breaks to new lower lows below 0.6650. 
• The pair’s medium and short-term downtrend is probably resuming. 

AUD/USD resumes its down move which began at the September 30 highs. On Wednesday the pair breaks below the former low of 0.6650. The establishment of a lower low indicates an extension of the short and medium-term downtrend, and given the technical analysis principle that “the trend is your friend” the odds favor more downside to come.

AUD/USD Daily Chart 

The next bearish target lies at the green 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6628. Further weakness would be dependent on breaking below that level as well as the key September 11 swing low and support level, at 0.6622. 

However, if successful, price would probably fall to 0.6565, the August 15 swing low. 

Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing waning bearish pressure, however, which could indicate a lack of follow-through to the downside.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 0.6660/0.6695. In the long run, rejuvenated momentum suggests AUD weakness remains intact; the level to monitor is 0.6620, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

The level to monitor is 0.6620

24-HOUR VIEW: “After AUD dropped sharply two days ago, we expected it to ‘decline further’ yesterday. However, AUD rebounded, closing at 0.6683 (+0.36%). AUD appears to have entered a sideways trading phase. Today, we expect it to trade between 0.6660/0.6695.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “AUD fell sharply two days ago. Yesterday (22 Oct, spot at 0.6715), we highlighted that ‘the rejuvenated momentum suggests that the AUD weakness from early this month remains intact.’ We added, ‘the level to monitor is 0.6620.’ We did not expect the subsequent rebound that reached a high of 0.6695. From here, if AUD were to break above 0.6705 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level), it would mean that the weakness in AUD has stabilised.”

• AUD/USD recovers sharply from 0.6650 as the RBA is less likely to cut interest rates this year.
• RBA Hauser didn’t offer any interest rate cues and preferred to remain data-dependent.
• The US Dollar clings to gains as traders see the Fed following a moderate policy-easing cycle.

The AUD/USD pair rebounds strongly from the key support of 0.6650 in Tuesday’s European session. The Aussie pair discovers strong buying interest on expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will continue with a restrictive monetary policy stance for the remainder of the year.

On Monday, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser cited the strong employment data as a surprise for him. On the monetary policy outlook, RBA Hauser didn’t provide a clear direction and said, “The central bank is ready to respond in either direction depending on incoming data.” The comment from Hauser left doors open for further interest rate hikes.

Meanwhile, a larger-than-expected interest rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has also improved Australia’s economic outlook, given that the nation is the largest trading partner of China. The PBoC reduced its one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 25 basis points (bps), while economists were anticipating a 20-bps rate cut.

However, the near-term appeal of the Australian Dollar (AUD) could be hurt by risk-off market sentiment due to uncertainty over the United States (US) presidential elections that are around the corner. S&P 500 futures have posted significant losses in the European session, exhibiting a sharp decline in investors’ risk appetite.

The US Dollar (USD) holds onto gains near a fresh 11-month high as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates gradually in November and December. The Fed can afford to avoid a sizeable interest rate cut in November, as expected earlier, after a slew of upbeat US economic data for September that diminished economic slowdown risks.

Sharp increase in momentum is likely to lead to further declines in AUD, but 0.6620 is probably out of reach today. In the longer run, rejuvenated momentum suggests AUD weakness remains intact; the level to monitor is 0.6620, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

The level to monitor is 0.6620

24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for AUD to trade in a 0.6685/0.6730 range was incorrect, as it plummeted to a low of 0.6652 in NY trading. The sharp increase in momentum is likely to lead to further declines, even though the major support at 0.6620 is probably out of reach today. To maintain the momentum, AUD must remain below 0.6685 with minor resistance at 0.6670.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (21 October), when AUD was at 0.6715, we indicated that ‘Downward momentum is slowing rapidly, and a breach of 0.6740 (‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the AUD weakness has stabilised.’ However, AUD did not breach the ‘strong resistance’ level. Instead, it dropped sharply to a low of 0.6652. The rejuvenated momentum suggests that the AUD weakness from early this month remains intact. The level to monitor is 0.6620, followed by a significant support level at 0.6585. On the upside, the ‘strong resistance’ level has moved lower to 0.6705 from 0.6740.”

• AUD/USD appears to be resuming its downtrend after a brief pull back. 
• Should the pair break to lower lows it will signal a continuation of the trend south to lower targets. 

AUD/USD seems to be resuming the downtrending move it began at the late-September highs, following a brief pull back.  

AUD/USD Daily Chart 

On Monday it is down by a third of a percent and is threatening to break below the October 16 low at 0.6658. 

A break below that level would set a lower low and confirm the pair’s medium and short-term downtrending bias. Such a move would probably reach a target at the green 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.6628. Further weakness would be dependent on breaking below that level as well as the key September 11 swing low and support level, at 0.6622. 

However, if successful, the next bearish target would come in at the 0.6565 August 15 swing low. 

The trend is bearish on the short and medium term timeframes – indicating a bias towards more selling – but sideways on the long-term. 

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a 0.6685/0.6730 range. In the longer run, downward momentum is slowing rapidly; a breach of 0.6740 would mean that the weakness in AUD has stabilized, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Likely to trade in a 0.6685/0.6730 range

24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected AUD to trade in a 0.6680/0.6725 range last Friday. It subsequently traded between 0.6694 and 0.6719, closing slightly higher at 0.6707 (+0.16%). Further range trading appears likely today, even though the slightly firmed underlying tone suggests a higher range of 0.6685/0.6730 range.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We turned negative in AUD early this month (as annotated in the chart below). After AUD dropped sharply to 0.6659, in our latest narrative from last Wednesday (16 Oct, spot at 0.6680), we indicated that ‘the rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD weakness.’ However, AUD has not been able to make further headway on the downside since then. Downward momentum is slowing rapidly, and a breach of 0.6740 (no change in level in ‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that the AUD weakness has stabilised.”

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was a touch firmer this morning amid supported risk sentiments and on comments from RBA’s Hauser. AUD was last at 0.6689, OCBC’s FX analyst Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risks skewed to the upside

“Some of the highlights of his recent fireside chat include: inflation is still ‘too high’; was surprised by overall employment growth; labour market outcome in good news story; firms finding it hard to fill vacancies.”

“He also said that RBA is not certain on level of neutral rate but most RBA models should between 3% and 4% neutral rate. He repeated again that RBA rate won’t fall as much or as early as other bans. Remarks were somewhat hawkish and reinforces RBA’s case for standing pat on policy rate for now.”

“Bearish momentum on daily chart shows signs of fading while RSI rose from overbought conditions. Risks skewed to the upside. Next resistance at 0.6780/90 levels (21 DMA), 0.6820 levels. Support at 0.6660.”

• AUD/USD edges higher to around 0.6715 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Rising bets on smaller Fed rate cuts could cap the USD’s downside. 
• Strong Australian job data lowers expectations of the RBA rate cut. 

The AUD/USD pair extends its recovery to near 0.6715 during the early Asian session on Monday. The modest decline of the Greenback provides some support to the pair. Investors will keep an eye on the speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials later on Monday, including Neel Kashkari and Jeffrey Schmid. 

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens as the upbeat employment data make it less likely that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will opt for an interest rate cut this year. The Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed last week that the country’s Unemployment Rate in September was 4.1%. Economists estimated the rate would remain at the 4.2% initially reported for August. 

“Ultimately, this means less pressure on the RBA to bring forward its rate cut timeline,” said Russel Chesler, the head of investments and capital markets at VanEck. “The market is pricing in cuts to start by February 2025, but we believe rate cuts will start much later in 2025,” Chesler added.

On the other hand, the US economic data continue to show a robust US economy that is not in any need of aggressive Fed easing, which might cap the downside for the US Dollar (USD). Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US election and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is likely to underpin the safe-haven currency like the USD in the near term.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a 0.6680/0.6725 range. In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD weakness; the levels to monitor are 0.6650 and 0.6620, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia notes.

AUD can fall towards 0.6650 short term

24-HOUR VIEW: “AUD traded between 0.6660 and 0.6710 yesterday, narrower than our expected range of 0.6660/0.6720. We continue to expect AUD to trade in a range today, probably between 0.6680 and 0.6725.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted two days ago (16 Oct, spot at 0.6680) that ‘the rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD weakness.’ We also highlighted that ‘the levels to monitor are 0.6650 and 0.6620.’ While AUD has not been able to make further headway on the downside, we continue to hold the same vie for now. However, should AUD break the ‘strong resistance’ at 0.6740 (no change in level from yesterday), it would mean that the AUD weakness that started early this month has stabilised.”

• AUD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day and draws support from a combination of factors. 
• A positive risk tone and hawkish RBA expectations underpin the Aussie amid a modest USD downtick.
• Bets for smaller Fed rate cuts should limit the USD losses and cap any meaningful gains for the major. 

The AUD/USD pair builds on the previous day's bounce from the vicinity of mid-0.6600s, or over a one-month low and gains positive traction for the second straight day on Friday. The momentum lifts spot prices back above the 0.6700 mark during the first half of the European session and is sponsored by a combination of factors. 

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to draw support from Thursday's upbeat domestic employment details, which dashed hopes for an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year. Furthermore, the underlying bullish tone across the global equity markets prompts some profit-taking around the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), especially after the recent rally to the highest level since early August, and further benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie. 

Meanwhile, data released earlier today showed that China's economy expanded 4.6% year-on-year in the July-September period, marking the lowest reading in 18 months. The reading was below the government's full-year target of 5%, offsetting the better-than-expected Retail Sales and Industrial Production figures for September. This, in turn, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the China-proxy Aussie and cap the AUD/USD pair. 

Furthermore, bets for a regular 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November, bolstered by Thursday's upbeat US macro data, should help limit any meaningful downside for the USD. This further makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support breakpoint, around the 0.6750 area, before confirming that the AUD/USD pair has formed a near-term bottom. 

Investors now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of Building Permits and Housing Starts. Apart from this, Fed Governor Christopher Waller's speech, along with the broader risk sentiment, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register losses for the third straight week and the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for further gains.

• AUD/USD surrenders some intraday gains as the US Dollar gains further.
• Surprisingly upbeat Australian labor market data would force the RBA to maintain a hawkish interest rate stance.
• The US Dollar extends gains on expectations of Donald Trump winning presidential elections.

The AUD/USD pair surrenders half of its intraday gains after rising to 0.6700, which were inspired by the upbeat Australian Employment data for September in Thursday’s European session.

The Aussie labor market data showed that the economy added fresh 64.1K jobs, which were unexpectedly higher as market participants projected lower payrolls at 25K than 42.6K in August. The Unemployment Rate grew steadily by 4.1%, while economists expected it to accelerate to 4.2%.

Upbeat Aussie Employment data is expected to restrict Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials from hiking interest rates anytime this year.

Though the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its major peers, the upside in the Aussie pair is expected to remain restricted as the US Dollar (USD) extends its upside on expectations that former US President Donald Trump will defeat Democratic Kamala Harris in presidential elections. Market experts expect higher tariffs on imports, loosening financial conditions and more tax cuts in Trump 2.O administration.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises over 10-week high above 103.50.

Going forward, the next move in the US Dollar will be influenced by the United States (US) Retail Sales data for September, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The Retail Sales data is estimated to have grown by 0.3%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a 0.6660/0.6720 range. In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD weakness; the levels to monitor are 0.6650 and 0.6620, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

AUD is likely to trade in a 0.6660/0.6720 range

24-HOUR VIEW: “After AUD dropped sharply in early Asian trade yesterday, we indicated that ‘downward momentum is increasing rapidly, and AUD could continue to decline to 0.6650.’ We added, ‘the major support at 0.6620 is likely of reach today.’ AUD declined less than expected, reaching a low of 0.6859 during NY session. AUD rebounded strongly in early Asian trading today. The rebound in oversold conditions suggest instead of weakening further, AUD is likely to trade in a 0.6660/0.6720 range today.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our update from yesterday (16 Oct, spot at 0.6680) still stands. As highlighted, ‘the rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD weakness.’ We also highlighted that ‘the levels to monitor are 0.6650 and 0.6620.’ Overall, only a breach of the ‘strong resistance’ at 0.6740 (no change in level from yesterday) would mean that the AUD weakness that started early this month has stabilised.”

• AUD/USD falls below 0.6700 as the US Dollar performs strongly.
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates gradually in the remainder of the year.
• Investors await the Aussie Employment data for September.

The AUD/USD pair extends its downside below the key support of 0.6700 in Wednesday’s European session. The Aussie asset weakens as the market sentiment remains risk-averse on expectations that US former President Donald Trump could win upcoming presidential elections. Trump’s victory could have a negative impact on risk-sensitive currencies as he favors a closed economy culture.

S&P 500 futures exhibit a subdued performance in European trading hours. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises further to near 103.40.

The Greenback posts a fresh two-month high as market participants expect that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy-easing cycle will be gradual in the remainder year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% by the year-end, suggesting that there will be two quarter-to-a-basis rate cuts, which will come in November and December.

Going forward, the next trigger for the US Dollar will be the monthly Retail Sales data for September, which will be published on Thursday. The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.3%.

On the Aussie front, investors await the Employment data for September, which will be published on Thursday. The labor market data is expected to show that the Australian economy 25K new workers, lower than 47.5K in August. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%. Sings of steady or stronger job growth would allow the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 4.35%.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) could decline further to 0.6650; the major support at 0.6620 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum is likely to lead to further AUD weakness; the levels to monitor are 0.6650 and 0.6620, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Levels to monitor are 0.6650 and 0.6620

24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that AUD ‘could retest the 0.6700 level before another rebound is likely.’ AUD subsequently dropped to 0.6698 but did not rebound. AUD closed at 0.6703 in NY trade (-0.34%) but dropped sharply in early Asian session today. Downward momentum is increasing rapidly, and AUD could continue to decline to 0.6650. The major support at 0.6620 is likely of reach today. To keep the momentum going, AUD must remain below 0.6715 (minor resistance is at 0.6700).”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (10 Oct, spot at 0.6720), we indicated that ‘while there has been no significant increase in momentum, the bias for AUD remains on the downside.’ Yesterday, AUD dropped to a low of 0.6698. Today, it fell clearly below 0.6700. The price action has resulted in a rapid increase in momentum, and this is likely to lead to further AUD weakness. The levels to monitor are 0.6650 and 0.6620. On the upside, should AUD break above 0.6740 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 0.6785), it would mean that the AUD weakness that started early this month has stabilised.”

The Australian Dollar (AUD) could retest the 0.6700 level before another rebound is likely. In the long run, bias for AUD remains on the downside; a clear break below 0.6700 would suggest further decline, potentially to 0.6670, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Break below 0.6700 may suggests decline towards 0.6670

24-HOUR VIEW: “Yesterday, we held the view that AUD ‘is likely to trade in a sideways range of 0.6710/0.6760.’ The price action did not turn out as we expected. In NY trade, AUD dropped to 0.6703 before rebounding quickly to close at 0.6726 (-0.36%). While downward momentum only increased slightly, AUD could retest the 0.6700 level before another rebound is likely. A sustained decline below 0.6700 seems unlikely. Resistance levels are at 0.6745 and 0.6760.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (10 Oct, spot at 0.6720), we indicated that ‘while there has been no significant increase in momentum, the bias for AUD remains on the downside.’ Although AUD dropped to 0.6703 yesterday, the decline was brief, and the movement did not result in any further increase in downward momentum. In other words, our view remains unchanged. The downward bias will remain intact provided that 0.6785 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) is not breached.”

• AUD/USD declines after the release of weak China trade data on Monday. 
• The pair recovers some of the losses after Fed’s Kashkari gives boost to rate-cut hopes. 

AUD/USD manages to claw back some of its earlier losses and climbs into the 0.6730s on Monday after trading down to 0.6700 following the release of weak Chinese export data, which negatively impacted the Australian Dollar (AUD) due to the two country’s close trade ties.

China Exports in September declined to 2.4% YoY from 8.4% previously and below the 6.0% expected, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. This contributed to a lower-than-expected and lower-than-previous Trade Balance for the month of $81.71 billion. The data added to the overall pessimistic view of the Chinese economy and investor disappointment at the lack of detail contained in a recently-unveiled fiscal stimulus program. 

In a speech on Saturday, Finance Minister Lan Fo’an withheld actual figures of the program but did announce Beijing would be launching a large-scale local government debt-swap program, and said the forthcoming stimulus package could mark a multi-year turning point in China's fiscal policy framework.  

A contributing factor to AUD/USD’s recovery during the US session on Monday could be a speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari (non-voting member) who said that it appears likely that “further modest reductions” in the central bank’s benchmark interest rate will be appropriate in the coming quarters. The expectation of lower interest rates is negative for the US Dollar (USD) since it reduces foreign capital inflows. 

That said, the FXStreet’s FedTracker, which gauges the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10 using a custom AI model, rated Kashkari’s words as neutral, with a score of 5.6. This was also above the 4.3 average for the Fed official.