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CFD Trading Rate Euro vs Czech Koruna (EURCZK)
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04.03.2024 11:46EUR/CZK to drift slightly lower in coming months, then follow more sideways profile over 2024-25 – Commerzbank
The Czech Koruna (CZK) was a notable underperformer among CEE over the past year. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the EUR/CZK outlook.
Not expecting much rebound
The Czech Koruna will probably stabilise in coming months as inflation moderates by more than rates will be cut.
But later in 2025, we forecast the CZK to depreciate, once again, on the back of a weaker Euro (EUR), and also on the back of stubborn wage and core inflation which could re-accelerate in the medium term.
Source: Commerzbank Research
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08.02.2024 09:51EUR/CZK: Peak seen around 25.20 – ING
The Czech National Bank (CNB) will hold its first monetary policy meeting of the year today. The Czech Koruna has weakened above 24.90 EUR/CZK, which is basically the weakest level since early 2022. Economists at ING analyze how CNB’s decision could impact the pair.
CZK should start appreciating again later this year
If the CNB delivers a 50 bps rate cut, it is obviously negative news for the CZK. But on the other hand, we believe that the market positioning is already heavily short and rates are already pricing in the vast majority of CNB rate cuts. That is why we see the peak around 25.20 EUR/CZK.
A minor cut, however, could bring a temporary strengthening towards 24.70 given heavy dovish expectations.
In the long-term, however, we think that after the 50 bps rate cut and January inflation, the market should have hit the limit of what can be priced in and the CZK should start appreciating again later this year thanks to the economic recovery, good current account results and falling EUR rates improving the interest rate differential.
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