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CFD Trading Rate Euro vs Japanese Yen (EURJPY)

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  • 22.07.2024 07:28
    EUR/JPY attracts some sellers below 170.50 amid BoJ rate hike hopes
    • EUR/JPY trades on a softer note around 170.25 in Monday’s early European session, down 0.67% on the day. 
    • The growing speculation of a BoJ rate hike might support the JPY. 
    • The ECB's cautious stance might cap the cross’s downside. 

    The EUR/JPY cross faces some selling pressure near 170.25 during the early European trading hours on Monday. The higher chance that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hike at its July monetary policy meeting provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY). Traders will take more cues from the preliminary Eurozone July Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Wednesday, followed by the Japanese Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. 

    Japan's core inflation rose for a second straight month in June, fueling market expectations of a near-term interest rate hike by the Japanese central bank. BoJ Governor Kazuo Uedastated that the central bank will push up rates further if rising wages and service prices heighten prospects for durably achieving its 2% inflation target. Nonetheless, more than three-quarters of economists polled by Reuters anticipated the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to keep rates on hold this month due to lacklustre consumption and a fragile economy.

    Additionally, the Japan Times reported that hedge funds pared bets against the JPY after a suspected double market intervention from Japanese authorities to bolster the currency. The fear of possible further foreign exchange (FX) intervention from Japanese officials is likely to boost the JPY in the near term. 

    On the other hand, the European Central Bank's (ECB) cautious approach to interest rates might cap the downside of the Euro (EUR). The ECB emphasized the data-dependent approach, leaving the timing of rate cuts uncertain. The ECB's cautious stance highlighted geopolitical risks and political uncertainties, which must be watchful and adaptive.

    Japanese Yen FAQs

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

    One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

    The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

    The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

     

  • 18.07.2024 12:41
    EUR/JPY steadies as ECB’s hold rates, traders eye Lagarde’s presser
    • EUR/JPY reaches 171.00, peaking at 171.19, after the ECB holds interest rates steady.
    • ECB remarks on core inflation: slight increase due to one-off factors, though most metrics stable or decreased in June.
    • ECB plans to reduce APP and PEPP portfolios, ceasing principal reinvestments, with an average monthly reduction of €7.5 billion.

    The EUR/JPY remains at familiar levels after the European Central Bank decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with its deposit rate at 3.75% as expected, and would stick to its meeting-by-meeting approach, failing to provide an interest rate path. At the time of writing, the cross trades at around 171.00 after hitting a daily high of 171.19.

    ECB maintains cautious stance, fails to outline clear rate path

    In its monetary policy statement, the ECB mentioned that measures of core inflation edged slightly up due to “one-off factors,” but most measures remained stable or edged down in June. The ECB’s Governing Council noted that the policy “is keeping financing conditions restrictive.” It would keep it as it is “for as long as necessary” to ensure inflation returns to its 2% goal.

    Regarding its Aset Purchase Program (APP), the ECB decided not to reinvest all the principal payments on its Asset Purchase Program (APP) and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), reducing the portfolio to average €7.5 billion per month.

    In the meantime, traders eye ECB’s President Christine Lagarde's press conference at around 12:45 GMT.

    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The EUR/JPY slid to its daily low of 170.01 during the Asian session, yet it has managed to recover some ground. After the ECB’s decision, it climbed back above the 50-day moving average (DMA)at 170.75.

    Nevertheless, momentum remains on the sellers’ side, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted bearish following the Japanese authority's intervention in the FX space.

    However, if EUR/JPY stays above 171.00, that could pave the way to test July’s 17 high of 172.83. On its way up, it would face key resistance levels: the Kijun-Sen at 171.47, followed by the Tenkan-Sen at 172.72. Afterward, buyers could test yesterday’s peak.

    On the other hand, if a fall is below 171.00, sellers could challenge the 170.00 figure before prices drop inside the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo).

    ECB FAQs

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

    Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

     

  • 18.07.2024 05:28
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Appreciates to near 171.00; next barrier at 23.6% Fibonacci level
    • EUR/JPY resists at 171.00 level followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 171.29 level.
    • The cross lies below 9-day EMA, indicating to refrain from buying until the trend shows signs of reversal.
    • A break below the 170.00 level could lead the cross to revisit June’s low at 167.52 level.

    EUR/JPY edges higher to near 170.90 during the Asian session on Thursday. The daily chart analysis shows that the pair lies below its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting downward momentum in the short term. This signals that it may be prudent to hold off on buying until the trend shows signs of reversal.

    Moreover, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, is below the 50 level, suggesting a confirmation of a bearish bias for the EUR/JPY cross.

    The EUR/JPY cross is likely to test the immediate resistance at the psychological level of 171.00, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 171.29, positioned between the coordinates of 175.43 and 170.01 levels.

    Further barrier appears at the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 172.36 level. A breakthrough above this level could lead the EUR/JPY cross to approach the record high of 175.43 level recorded on July 11.

    On the downside, the psychological level of 170.00 could act as immediate support. A break below this level could exert downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the area around June’s low at 167.52 level.

    EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   0.04% 0.02% 0.06% -0.02% -0.13% 0.11% 0.12%
    EUR -0.04%   -0.02% 0.02% -0.06% -0.18% 0.07% 0.08%
    GBP -0.02% 0.02%   0.04% -0.05% -0.14% 0.11% 0.10%
    JPY -0.06% -0.02% -0.04%   -0.09% -0.19% 0.03% 0.06%
    CAD 0.02% 0.06% 0.05% 0.09%   -0.11% 0.14% 0.14%
    AUD 0.13% 0.18% 0.14% 0.19% 0.11%   0.26% 0.28%
    NZD -0.11% -0.07% -0.11% -0.03% -0.14% -0.26%   -0.00%
    CHF -0.12% -0.08% -0.10% -0.06% -0.14% -0.28% 0.00%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

  • 17.07.2024 05:41
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: The first upside target emerges above 172.50
    • EUR/JPY drifts lower around 172.45 in Wednesday’s Asian session. 
    • The cross maintains the negative stance below the 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, with bearish RSI indicators. 
    • The first upside barrier will emerge at 172.75; the initial support level is located at 171.82. 

    The EUR/JPY cross weakens near 172.45 on Wednesday during the early European session. The cross edges lower as traders turn cautious ahead of the release of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for June. The attention will shift to the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday, with no change in rates expected. 

    According to the 4-hour chart, the bearish outlook of EUR/JPY remains intact as the cross holds below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The cross could resume its upside if it can break above the 100-period EMA at 172.75. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands in the bearish zone around 42.15, suggesting that the path of least resistance is to the downside. 

    The first upside barrier for the cross will emerge at 172.75, the 100-period EMA. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 173.21, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Extended gains will see a rally to   173.80, a low of July 4. 

    On the downside, the initial support level for the cross is located at 171.82, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The additional downside filter to watch is 170.85, a low of June 26. The crucial contention level will emerge at the 170.00 psychological level.

    EUR/JPY 4-hour chart

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 15.07.2024 21:39
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Downward pressured, clings to 172.00
    • EUR/JPY edges down 0.03%, pressured by suspected last week FX intervention.
    • Technical outlook remains upward as price action stays above the Ichimoku Cloud.
    • Key supports at 172.00, 171.58, and 170.56; resistance levels at 172.45 and 173.43.

    The EUR/JPY remains under pressure for the third straight day after Japanese authorities intervened in the FX space last Thursday, although policymakers have not confirmed this. The cross-pair trades at 172.12, down 0.03%.

    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    From a daily chart perspective, the pair is upward biased as price action stills above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo) and a series of successive higher highs and lows, which could pave the way for further upside.

    As measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the momentum suggests that sellers had stepped in firmly, as the RSI hovers around the 50-neutral line, following a steep fall.

    Given the backdrop, the EUR/JPY could consolidate in the short term. If the pair falls below 172.00, that can pave the way for further loss. The following support would be Kijun-Sen at 171.58, ahead of the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 170.56, ahead of the psychological 170.00 figure, ahead of the Senkou Span B at 169.92.

    On further strength, the EUR/JPY first resistance would be the Senkou Span A at 172.45 before testing the Tenkan-Sen at 173.43.

    EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 12.07.2024 02:57
    EUR/JPY rebounds swiftly from two-week low, moves back above 173.00 mark
    • EUR/JPY attracts some dip-buyers on Friday and recovers over 150 pips from a two-week low.
    • The uptick is exclusively sponsored by the emergence of fresh selling around the Japanese Yen.
    • Intervention fears and political uncertainty in France might keep a lid on any meaningful gains.

    The EUR/JPY cross stages a goodish bounce from a two-week low touched during the Asian session this Friday and climbs back above the 173.00 round-figure mark in the last hour. Spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled a sharp retracement slide from the 175.40-175.45 area, or the highest level since 1992 set on Thursday amid the emergence of fresh selling around the Japanese Yen (JPY).

    The overnight market reaction to speculation that Japanese authorities might have stepped into the FX market to lift the domestic currency fades rather quickly in the absence of any concrete evidence of intervention. This, along with the underlying strong bullish sentiment surrounding the equity markets, undermines the safe-haven JPY and is seen as a key factor that assists the EUR/JPY cross to attract fresh buyers on the last day of the week. 

    That said, the uncertainty surrounding the formation and composition of France's new government might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the shared currency. Apart from this, bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates and that Japanese authorities will eventually intervene to support the JPY should keep a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the EUR/JPY cross, warranting some caution for bearish traders.

    In fact, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and that he is ready to take all possible means on forex. Furthermore, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated that rapid FX moves are undesirable. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for the resumption of the recent well-established uptrend.

    Japanese Yen FAQs

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

    One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

    The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

    The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

     

  • 09.07.2024 09:19
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Holds position around 174.50 with an overbought condition
    • EUR/JPY is positioned within a rising wedge pattern, signaling a potential bearish reversal.
    • The 14-day RSI indicates the currency asset is in an overbought condition.
    • The upper boundary of the rising wedge around the 174.40 level acts as immediate resistance.

    EUR/JPY halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 174.30 during the European hours on Tuesday. The analysis of the daily chart shows a rising wedge pattern, indicating a potential bearish reversal. Furthermore, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 70 level, suggesting the currency asset is overbought and may face a correction.

    The momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is currently above both the centerline and the signal line, indicating confirmation of bullish momentum. Traders may anticipate additional movements, watching for potential shifts in momentum in the EUR/JPY cross.

    The EUR/JPY cross faces potential resistance near the upper boundary of the rising wedge around the 174.40 level. A successful breakthrough above this level could strengthen the bullish bias and lead the cross toward the psychological level of 175.00.

    On the downside, the key support appears around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 173.52, followed by the lower boundary of the rising wedge around the level of 173.50. A break below the latter could exert downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the psychological level of 170.00

    Further decline may increase the selling pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the vicinity around the throwback support at 167.60.

    EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   0.02% -0.02% 0.08% 0.00% -0.04% 0.12% 0.00%
    EUR -0.02%   -0.05% 0.07% -0.03% -0.06% 0.10% -0.02%
    GBP 0.02% 0.05%   0.12% 0.02% 0.01% 0.15% 0.02%
    JPY -0.08% -0.07% -0.12%   -0.10% -0.14% 0.00% -0.11%
    CAD -0.00% 0.03% -0.02% 0.10%   -0.06% 0.13% -0.01%
    AUD 0.04% 0.06% -0.01% 0.14% 0.06%   0.14% 0.00%
    NZD -0.12% -0.10% -0.15% -0.01% -0.13% -0.14%   -0.12%
    CHF -0.00% 0.02% -0.02% 0.11% 0.01% -0.00% 0.12%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

  • 04.07.2024 04:32
    EUR/JPY edges lower below 174.50 amid fear of FX intervention
    • EUR/JPY weakens to nearly 174.20 in Thursday’s Asian session. 
    • The fear of FX intervention from Japanese authorities supports the JPY and drags the cross lower.
    • The outcome of second round vote of the French parliamentary elections on Sunday might add volatility to the EUR.

    The EUR/JPY cross trades on a weaker note around 174.20, snapping the six-day winning streak during the Asian session on Thursday. The fear of foreign exchange (FX) intervention from Japanese authorities lifts the Japanese Yen (JPY). Later on Thursday, the German Factory Orders for May and ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released. 

    The growing speculation of FX intervention from the Japanese authorities provides some support to the JPY and caps the cross’s upside. Rabobank FX strategists said that the FX intervention could be imminent due to the weakness of the Japanese Yen, which is exerting downward pressure on consumer confidence.

    Data released on Wednesday showed that the final reading of Japan’s Services PMI dropped to 49.4 in June from 49.8 in May. This figure registered the largest downward movement since January 2022 and was among the biggest on record. This, in turn, might undermine the JPY and create a tailwind for the cross. 

    On the Euro front, the far right's hopes of winning outright in the French election fell on Tuesday, as centrist and left-wing candidates reluctantly banded together to stop Marine Le Pen's National Rally from seizing power for the first time, per Politico. However, the announcement of the French parliamentary elections on Sunday might add volatility to the EUR. 

    Japanese Yen FAQs

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

    One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

    The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

    The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

     

  • 03.07.2024 06:04
    EUR/JPY extends upside above 173.50, eyes on Eurozone PMI data
    • EUR/JPY gains momentum around 173.80 in Wednesday’s European session, up 0.20% on the day.
    • Japanese business activity turned contractionary in June, pressuring the JPY. 
    • The interest rate differential between the Eurozone and Japan continues to support the Euro for the time being. 

    The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory for the sixth consecutive day near 173.80 on Wednesday during the early European session. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens after the data showed that Japanese business activity turned contractionary in June.

    The final reading of Japan’s Services PMI fell to 49.4 in June from 49.8 in May. This figure registered the largest downward movement since January 2022 and among the biggest on record, which exerts some selling pressure on the JPY and acts as a headwind for the pair. On the other hand, the possibility that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will intervene in the foreign exchange (FX) could underpin the JPY in the near term. 

    On the Euro front, the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation eased to 2.5% YoY in June from 2.6% in May. However, these inflation reports were unlikely to encourage the ECB to cut interest rates again at its next policy meeting on 18 July. “Nothing in these figures would make the ECB cut again in July, and we think it’ll be eagerly awaiting data over the summer before seriously debating a next rate cut in September,” said Bert Colijn, senior eurozone economist at the Dutch bank ING.

    On Monday, the ECB president Christine Lagarde said that the recent economic developments suggested that further interest rate cuts are not urgent. The divergence in monetary policy between the Eurozone and Japan continues to support the Euro for the time being. 

    Japanese Yen FAQs

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

    One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

    The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

    The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

     

  • 01.07.2024 08:58
    EUR/JPY moves above 173.00, reacts positively to Le Pen’s National Rally’s sweep
    • EUR/JPY gains upside traction as sentiment improves to the far-right sweep in the first round of the French election.
    • HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 45.8 in June but remained below the survey average of 51.6.
    • The Japanese Yen may limit its downside as an upbeat Japan’s business confidence data lifts market sentiment.

    EUR/JPY continues its winning streak for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 173.30 during the European session on Monday. The Euro has gained upside traction as the traders reacted positively to the far-right sweep in the first round of the French snap election on Sunday.

    Marine Le Pen’s National Rally confirmed its status as France’s leading political force, marking the highest turnout in three decades. While Le Pen’s party secured a clear but not definitive victory, uncertainty prevails ahead of the second round of voting on July 7, as reported by France 24.

    HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 45.8 in June from a preliminary estimate of 45.6. Still, the PMI remains well below the survey average of 51.6, with output contracting at the fastest rate so far this year. European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Olli Rehn suggested last week that the central bank might cut interest rates twice more this year.

    In Japan, upbeat Japan’s business confidence data lifts market sentiment, which might support the Japanese Yen, limiting the upside of the EUR/JPY cross. Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index rose to 13 in the second quarter from the previous reading of 11. The index hit the highest level in two years amid an improving economic outlook. Meanwhile, Japan’s Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for June was revised slightly lower to 50 from a preliminary reading of 50.1 but remained expansionary for the second straight month.

    Additionally, the expected speculations about an imminent intervention by Japanese authorities also support the JPY. Reuters reported on Friday that Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that the authorities were "deeply concerned" about the impact of "rapid and one-sided" foreign exchange moves on the economy. Suzuki added that excessive volatility in the currency market is undesirable and that authorities will respond appropriately to such moves.

    Risk sentiment FAQs

    In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

    Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

    The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

     

  • 26.06.2024 13:18
    EUR/JPY hovers near multi-year highs 171.50, Japan’s intervention fears intensify
    • EUR/JPY trades near multi-year highs above 171.00.
    • Fears of Japan’s intervention to cushion the Japanese Yen have intensified.
    • The ECB is expected to deliver more rate cuts sooner.

    The EUR/JPY trades close to multi-year highs around 171.50 in Wednesday’s American session. The cross is expected to face selling pressure as the Japanese Yen could gain significantly with Japan’s intervention against excessive FX volatility moves.

    Fears of Japan intervention to provide cushion to weak Yen have deepened as the currency has declined to lowest levels of 160.39 since 1986 against the US Dollar (USD).

    The Japanese Yen has remained under pressure despite growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again sooner. The expectations for further policy-tightening have improved as weak Yen is resulting in higher inflation by making exports competitive in global markets and increasing import costs. The BoJ minutes for the latest meeting showed that one member advocated for an increase "without too much delay" to help bring inflation back down, Reuters reported.

    Meanwhile, the Euro is also under pressure due to rising expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will deliver subsequent rate cuts. The probability of more rate cuts by the ECB has been prompted by deteriorating economic prospects of Eurozone’s largest economy.

    German IFO data that exhibits market sentiment over economy’s current position and forward outlook indicated a gloomy picture. The IFO Business Climate, an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany, surprisingly declined to 88.6 for June.

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 171.1
    Today Daily Change 0.02
    Today Daily Change % 0.01
    Today daily open 171.08
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 169.71
    Daily SMA50 168.44
    Daily SMA100 165.64
    Daily SMA200 162.33
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 171.4
    Previous Daily Low 170.7
    Previous Weekly High 170.92
    Previous Weekly Low 167.96
    Previous Monthly High 170.8
    Previous Monthly Low 164.02
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 170.97
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 171.13
    Daily Pivot Point S1 170.73
    Daily Pivot Point S2 170.37
    Daily Pivot Point S3 170.03
    Daily Pivot Point R1 171.42
    Daily Pivot Point R2 171.75
    Daily Pivot Point R3 172.11

     

     

  • 24.06.2024 21:54
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Extends gains eye YTD high above 171.00
    • EUR/JPY extends its gains for the sixth consecutive day and nearing the YTD high of 171.58.
    • Technical outlook shows bullish momentum, with RSI indicating potential for further gains.
    • Key resistance levels are YTD high at 171.58, 172.00, 172.50, and 173.00.
    • Key support levels would be 171.00, the confluence of Tenkan, Kijun-Sen, and Senkou Span A at 169.48, and 50-DMA.

    The EUR/JPY extended its gains for the sixth straight day on Monday and is up 0.24%. Yet it remains shy of testing the year-to-date (YTD) high reached on April 29 at 171.58. At the time of writing, the cross is trading at 171.29, above the 171.00 key technical level.

    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    The pair is set to extend its gains. Still, intervention fears that the Bank of Japan or the Minister of Finance might step into the FX markets loom, keeping investors on their toes.

    Momentum suggests that the cross could extend its gains, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish.

    Therefore, the EUR/JPY first resistance would be the YTD high at 171.58. A breach of the latter will expose the 172.00 figure, followed by the 172.50 mark. Once those two levels are cleated, up next will be the 173.00 psychological level.

    On further weakness, the EUR/JPY might be headed for a pullback, and test 171.00. Once cleared, the next support would be the confluence of the Tenkan, Kijun-Sen and Senkou Span A at 169.48. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 168.40.

    EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 171.32
    Today Daily Change 0.42
    Today Daily Change % 0.25
    Today daily open 170.9
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 169.65
    Daily SMA50 168.15
    Daily SMA100 165.4
    Daily SMA200 162.2
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 170.92
    Previous Daily Low 169.33
    Previous Weekly High 170.92
    Previous Weekly Low 167.96
    Previous Monthly High 170.8
    Previous Monthly Low 164.02
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 170.31
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 169.94
    Daily Pivot Point S1 169.85
    Daily Pivot Point S2 168.79
    Daily Pivot Point S3 168.26
    Daily Pivot Point R1 171.44
    Daily Pivot Point R2 171.97
    Daily Pivot Point R3 173.03

     

     

  • 14.06.2024 22:02
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Slips below 169.00 amid political turmoil
    • EUR/JPY trades at 168.43, marking the second consecutive day of losses due to political uncertainty in France.
    • Technical outlook: Consolidation below 170.00 with potential further losses if price drops below the 50-DMA at 167.47.
    • Key support levels: Kumo bottom at 165.92 and 100-DMA at 164.78, indicating acceleration of the downtrend if breached.

    The Euro tumbled for the second straight day against the Japanese Yen due to political uncertainty. France's presidential approvals plunged to their lowest level in five years ahead of the General Elections. The EUR/JPY trades at 168.43, down 0.08%.

    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    After peaking around 170.00, EUR/JPY has consolidated below this level but remains above the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), which would accelerate the downtrend if breached.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that sellers are gaining momentum as it falls below the 50-line, suggesting that EUR/JPY could face further losses.

    If EUR/JPY drops below the 50-day moving average (DMA) of 167.47, it could trigger a decline into the Kumo, signaling an acceleration of the downtrend. The next support would be the bottom of the Kumo at 165.92, followed by the 100-DMA at 164.78.

    EUR/JPY Price Action - Daily Chart

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 168.48
    Today Daily Change -0.13
    Today Daily Change % -0.08
    Today daily open 168.61
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 169.64
    Daily SMA50 167.51
    Daily SMA100 164.81
    Daily SMA200 161.84
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 170.14
    Previous Daily Low 168.28
    Previous Weekly High 170.89
    Previous Weekly Low 168.01
    Previous Monthly High 170.8
    Previous Monthly Low 164.02
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 168.99
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 169.43
    Daily Pivot Point S1 167.88
    Daily Pivot Point S2 167.15
    Daily Pivot Point S3 166.03
    Daily Pivot Point R1 169.74
    Daily Pivot Point R2 170.86
    Daily Pivot Point R3 171.59

     

     

  • 14.06.2024 15:19
    EUR/JPY tracks lower on French election fears and BoJ ending QE
    • EUR/JPY falls as investors fear the outcome of snap French legislative elections. 
    • The risk looms large of the far-right winning after their success in the European elections.
    • The Yen finds support after the BoJ signals plan to end quantitative easing.  

    The EUR/JPY is trading down over a third of a percent in the 167s on Friday, as French-election jitters weigh on the Euro (EUR) whilst the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains support from the prospect of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) winding down its quantitative easing (QE) programme. 

    EUR/JPY declines on French election concerns

    EUR/JPY pushes lower on Friday due to an across-the-board depreciation in the Euro from the uncertain outcome of French legislative elections scheduled for June 30 and July 7. The French President Emmanuelle Macron called the snap elections after his centrist Renaissance party was defeated by the far-right National Rally (RN) party at the European parliamentary elections. 

    With Renaissance polling only around 19% of the vote currently, after a series of unpopular reforms, and RN with over 30%, there is a risk the far-right party, founded by famous right-winger Jean-Marie Le Pen could win power, with potentially Europe-wide consequences. 

    “The two-round electoral process makes it hard to confidently estimate seat numbers, but experts predict RN could almost treble its tally of deputies, though most likely fall short of an outright majority, while Renaissance’s total could halve,” said Jon Henley, Europe Correspondent for The Guardian. 

    “Such a result would leave Macron facing three years of an even more fractured and hostile parliament, having to cut difficult deals with opposition parties to form a government and pass laws, leading to almost certain legislative deadlock,” Henley added. 

    BoJ signals end to QE

    The Yen, meanwhile, gained a boost after the BoJ meeting during Friday’s Asian session. Although the BoJ did not raise the bank’s policy rates from a comparatively very low 0.0% - 0.1% range, Boj Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the bank was preparing a plan to reduce Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases over the next one to two years, which it would present details of at its meeting in July. 

    The BoJ is the last remaining major central bank to still engage in buying government bonds, a form of QE used to provide liquidity to banks and inflate the economy – with negative effects on the currency.

    Ueda’s words could indicate the BoJ will cut its circa ¥6 Trillion of JGB purchases to zero over the next one to two years, according to Jin Kenzaki, Head of Research for Japan at Societe Generale.

    “Given the BoJ’s announcement that it will lay out the details of its reduction plan for the next one to two years, there is a possibility that the BoJ will reduce its monthly JGB purchases to zero over the next one to two years," said Kenzaki in a note following Friday’s meeting. 

    "Until this announcement, we had predicted that the purchase amount would decrease to ¥4T by the end of this year and ¥3T by next spring, but given the pressure from the government to address the weak yen, we now think the most likely scenario will be a reduction starting in August, with purchases declining by ¥1T every three months and reaching zero by November of next year,” he added. 

    ECB officials more sympathetic to easing after June

    The Euro has come under pressure of late after comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials suggested the interest-rate cut it has promised to make at its June 19 meeting will be a one off event, not the start of a monetary easing cycle. 

    Comments on Thursday and Friday, however, veered to the more dovish, however, with officials more sympathetic to the view the ECB might follow up its June interest-rate cut with further easing. 

    “On Thursday, ECB Governing Council member Bostjan Vasle said that more rate cuts are possible if the disinflation process continues. However, Vasle also warned that the process could slow down as wage momentum is relatively strong. In Friday's European session, ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno said,  ‘Disinflation process will resume after August.’” According to Sagar Dua, Editor at FXStreet

     

  • 14.06.2024 03:34
    EUR/JPY jumps to fresh daily peak, around mid-169.00s after BoJ policy decision
    • EUR/JPY builds on its intraday positive move after the BoJ manintains the staus quo.
    • The BoJ left interest rates unchanged and also decided not to reduce bond purchases.
    • Political uncertainty in Europe could undermine the Euro and cap gains for the cross.

    The EUR/JPY cross attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Friday and reverses a part of the previous day's retracement slide from over a one-week high – levels beyond the 170.00 mark. The intraday positive move picks up pace after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its policy decision, lifting spot prices to mid-169.00s, or a fresh daily peak in the last hour.

    As was widely expected, the BoJ decided to leave interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its June policy meeting and did not offer any cues about the timing of the next rate increase. Furthermore, the central bank might have disappointed some market participants anticipating an announcement regarding a potential reduction in the monthly bond purchases. This, along with a generally positive risk tone, undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and provides a goodish lift to the EUR/JPY cross. 

    Meanwhile, a snap election call in France has sparked wider political concerns in the Eurozone. This might continue to act as a headwind for the shared currency and keep a lid on any meaningful appreciating move for the EUR/JPY cross. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying and sustained breakout through a short-term trading range held over the past two weeks or so before placing fresh bullish bets. Traders now look to comments by BoJ Governor Ueda Kazuo for a fresh impetus.

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 168.85
    Today Daily Change 0.24
    Today Daily Change % 0.14
    Today daily open 168.61
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 169.64
    Daily SMA50 167.51
    Daily SMA100 164.81
    Daily SMA200 161.84
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 170.14
    Previous Daily Low 168.28
    Previous Weekly High 170.89
    Previous Weekly Low 168.01
    Previous Monthly High 170.8
    Previous Monthly Low 164.02
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 168.99
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 169.43
    Daily Pivot Point S1 167.88
    Daily Pivot Point S2 167.15
    Daily Pivot Point S3 166.03
    Daily Pivot Point R1 169.74
    Daily Pivot Point R2 170.86
    Daily Pivot Point R3 171.59

     

     

  • 13.06.2024 20:10
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Seems to peak around 170.00, bears eye further downside
    • EUR/JPY buying pressure fades after consolidating around 168-170 for almost one month.
    • Momentum supports sellers, with potential targets seen at 167.47 and 165.92.
    • Upside is limited, yet a breach of 170.00, could pave the way to test the year-to-date (YTD) high of 171.58.

    The EUR/JPY seesawed within a 180-pip range on Thursday yet is posting losses of 0.45% after hitting a daily high of 170.13. At the time of writing, the pair exchanged hands at 168.60, below its opening price.

    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    After peaking at around 170.00, the EUR/JPY has consolidated below the latter, yet it cannot drop below the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), which would accelerate the downtrend.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows sellers gather momentum after the RSI punches below the 50-line. This suggests the EUR/JPY would be subject to further losses.

    If EUR/JPY falls below the 50-day moving average (DMA) of 167.47, that could exacerbate a dip inside the Kumo, an indication of the acceleration of the downtrend. The next support would be the bottom of the Kumo at 165.92, followed by the 100-DMA at 164.78.

    EUR/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 168.7
    Today Daily Change -0.70
    Today Daily Change % -0.41
    Today daily open 169.4
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 169.65
    Daily SMA50 167.42
    Daily SMA100 164.72
    Daily SMA200 161.78
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 169.59
    Previous Daily Low 168.66
    Previous Weekly High 170.89
    Previous Weekly Low 168.01
    Previous Monthly High 170.8
    Previous Monthly Low 164.02
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 169.23
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 169.02
    Daily Pivot Point S1 168.85
    Daily Pivot Point S2 168.29
    Daily Pivot Point S3 167.92
    Daily Pivot Point R1 169.77
    Daily Pivot Point R2 170.14
    Daily Pivot Point R3 170.7

     

     

  • 13.06.2024 05:40
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: The key resistance level is located near 170.00
    • EUR/JPY trades on a stronger note near 169.75 in Thursday’s early European session, gaining 0.22% on the day. 
    • The cross maintains a positive stance above the key 100-period EMA, with a bullish RSI indicator. 
    • The first upside barrier is seen at the 170.00 psychological mark; the initial support level is seen at 169.32. 

    The EUR/JPY cross gathers strength around 169.75 during the early European session on Thursday. The uncertainty that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce a reduction in monthly government bond purchases amid a weaker economy continues to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY) and create a tailwind for EUR/JPY. Market players await the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting on Friday, which is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. 

    According to the 4-hour chart, EUR/JPY keeps the bullish vibe unchanged as the cross is above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The upward momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands in bullish territory near 58.0, supporting the buyers for the time being. 

    A decisive break above 169.75, the upper boundary of Bollinger Band, will attract some buyers to the 170.00 psychological level. Further north, the additional upside filter to watch is 170.85, a high of June 3, en route to an all-time high of 171.60.   

    On the downside, the initial support level is located at 169.32, the 100-period EMA. A breach of the mentioned level could pave the way to 168.75, a low of June 12. Extended losses will see a drop to 168.40, the lower limit of Bollinger Band. 

    EUR/JPY 4-hour chart

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 169.74
    Today Daily Change 0.34
    Today Daily Change % 0.20
    Today daily open 169.4
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 169.65
    Daily SMA50 167.42
    Daily SMA100 164.72
    Daily SMA200 161.78
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 169.59
    Previous Daily Low 168.66
    Previous Weekly High 170.89
    Previous Weekly Low 168.01
    Previous Monthly High 170.8
    Previous Monthly Low 164.02
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 169.23
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 169.02
    Daily Pivot Point S1 168.85
    Daily Pivot Point S2 168.29
    Daily Pivot Point S3 167.92
    Daily Pivot Point R1 169.77
    Daily Pivot Point R2 170.14
    Daily Pivot Point R3 170.7

     

     

  • 11.06.2024 20:58
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Pair stands neutral, 20-day SMA stands as a strong resistance
    • The daily MACD and RSI indicate decreased bearish momentum.
    • A notable support threshold is holding up at 168.00, with recovery levels eyed at 169.70, around the 20-day SMA.
    • Despite recent downturns, the broader bullish outlook remains sustained by the 100 and 200-day SMAs.

    On Tuesday, the EUR/JPY pair continued to float around the 168.00 level, moving minorly negative as the pair continued sideways trading. Any potential recovery falls at the hands of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) which is currently near the 169.70 mark, which acts as an upper boundary hurdle.

    The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has nudged lower towards 50 maintaining a bearish aura. This, coupled with the continuing display of flat red MACD bars, construes potentially consolidative behavior amidst the ongoing neutral landscape. Hence, the market appears to be in a holding pattern pending a significant driver for more substantial moves.

    EUR/JPY daily chart

    That being said, the overarching bullish forces remain at play. The fundamental stronghold arises from the 100 and 200-day SMAs present at approximately 164.00 and 161.00, which might provide defense against potential losses.

    To conclude, traders remain focused on the movements around the 168.00 support level and the 169.70 recovery hurdle. A breach either way may decide the direction of the upcoming sessions.

     

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 168.76
    Today Daily Change -0.29
    Today Daily Change % -0.17
    Today daily open 169.05
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 169.64
    Daily SMA50 167.21
    Daily SMA100 164.56
    Daily SMA200 161.68
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 169.33
    Previous Daily Low 168.3
    Previous Weekly High 170.89
    Previous Weekly Low 168.01
    Previous Monthly High 170.8
    Previous Monthly Low 164.02
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 168.7
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 168.94
    Daily Pivot Point S1 168.46
    Daily Pivot Point S2 167.87
    Daily Pivot Point S3 167.44
    Daily Pivot Point R1 169.48
    Daily Pivot Point R2 169.92
    Daily Pivot Point R3 170.5

     

     

  • 10.06.2024 19:50
    EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Support holds strong at 168.00 and clears losses
    • The daily RSI remains settled in the negative territory, with the daily MACD displaying flat red bars reflecting stable bearish momentum.
    • The pair finds steady support near 168.00, stabilizing at 168.80 beyond the session's low at 168.15.
    • The prevalent bullish trend is sustained by the fortitude of the 100- and 200-day SMAs.

    On Monday, the EUR/JPY pair experienced an initial fall to 168.15 before stabilizing at 168.80, which seems to affirm the fortification of the support level around 168.00. Although an effort to recover the short-term 20-day SMA is needed to avert further descent, the 168.00 barrier would likely act as a fallback for the bulls if market pressure intensifies.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart now reads 47, preserving its position in the negative area, which implies a slightly bearish market disposition. The daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) retains flat red bars, marking a steady bearish momentum. This could perhaps signal a consolidation phase prior to any substantial shifts.

    EUR/JPY daily chart

    On the other hand, the broader bullish tendency in the EUR/JPY persists. The robust support rendered by the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), located around 164.00 and 161.00 correspondingly, remains a strong fortification against extensive bearish movements. Hence, despite the mild bearish undertones of recent sessions, these fluctuations are possibly corrective rather than indicative of any sweeping alterations in the prevailing trend.

     

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 169.02
    Today Daily Change -0.31
    Today Daily Change % -0.18
    Today daily open 169.33
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 169.61
    Daily SMA50 167.08
    Daily SMA100 164.48
    Daily SMA200 161.62
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 169.98
    Previous Daily Low 168.94
    Previous Weekly High 170.89
    Previous Weekly Low 168.01
    Previous Monthly High 170.8
    Previous Monthly Low 164.02
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 169.34
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 169.58
    Daily Pivot Point S1 168.85
    Daily Pivot Point S2 168.38
    Daily Pivot Point S3 167.82
    Daily Pivot Point R1 169.89
    Daily Pivot Point R2 170.45
    Daily Pivot Point R3 170.92

     

     

  • 10.06.2024 14:44
    EUR/JPY dives to 168.50 on election risk, focus shifts to BoJ policy
    • EUR/JPY tumbles to 168.50 as the Eurozone’s political uncertainty weakens the Euro’s appeal.
    • French Macron called for a snap election after exit polls showed significant seats for Bardella-led Far-right.
    • The BoJ may opt for reducing asset purchases as a step towards policy-normalization.

    The EUR/JPY pair falls sharply to 168.50 in Monday’s New York session as political uncertainty in the Eurozone prompted by French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision of dissolving parliament and calling for a snap election weighed heavily on the Euro.

    The decision came after exit polls for European parliamentary elections indicated that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) scored 32%-33% seats under the leadership of the party’s president, Jordan Bardella, which was more than double from Macron’s centrist list. This has triggered upside risks to change in government, which spawns uncertainty over the continuation of current fiscal policies.

    Meanwhile, the absence of support for subsequent interest-rate cuts by European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers has failed to offer some cushion to the weak Euro. In the European session, ECB policymaker and Slovakian central bank Governor Peter Kazimir also said that the central bank should not rush into another rate cut as progress in disinflation appears to be bumpy in the next few months.

    ECB policymakers worry that wage growth will continue to remain firm, which could boost consumer spending and slow the progress in inflation declining to the bank’s target. Meanwhile, a weak Euro is also expected to spur inflationary pressures by making Eurozone exports competitive in the global market.

    On the Tokyo front, investors await the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Friday. The BoJ is expected to leave interest rates at their current levels but reduce asset purchases to maintain progress towards policy normalization.

    On the economic front, revised estimates of Japan’s Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed that the economy contracts at a slower pace of 1.8% from preliminary estimates of 2.0% on an annualized basis.

    EUR/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 168.46
    Today Daily Change -0.87
    Today Daily Change % -0.51
    Today daily open 169.33
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 169.61
    Daily SMA50 167.08
    Daily SMA100 164.48
    Daily SMA200 161.62
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 169.98
    Previous Daily Low 168.94
    Previous Weekly High 170.89
    Previous Weekly Low 168.01
    Previous Monthly High 170.8
    Previous Monthly Low 164.02
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 169.34
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 169.58
    Daily Pivot Point S1 168.85
    Daily Pivot Point S2 168.38
    Daily Pivot Point S3 167.82
    Daily Pivot Point R1 169.89
    Daily Pivot Point R2 170.45
    Daily Pivot Point R3 170.92

     

     

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Making transactions on financial markets with marginal financial instruments opens up wide possibilities and allows investors who are willing to take risks to earn high profits, carrying a potentially high risk of losses at the same time. Therefore you should responsibly approach the issue of choosing the appropriate investment strategy, taking the available resources into account, before starting trading.

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Use of the information: full or partial use of materials from this website must always be referenced to TeleTrade as the source of information. Use of the materials on the Internet must be accompanied by a hyperlink to teletrade.org. Automatic import of materials and information from this website is prohibited.

Please contact our PR department if you have any questions or need assistance at pr@teletrade.global.

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