Date | Rate | Change |
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EUR/JPY pauses its three-day winning streak, hovering around 162.60 during early European trading on Wednesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggested that the currency cross is trending higher within an ascending channel, indicating a continued bullish bias.
Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the EUR/JPY cross. Furthermore, the currency cross's position above the nine- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) underscores strong short- and medium-term price momentum, supporting the potential for further gains.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may encounter its first key resistance at the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 164.50, followed by the four-month high of 164.90, recorded on December 30. A decisive break above this critical zone could strengthen the bullish bias, paving the way for a potential test of the eight-month high at 166.69.
The EUR/JPY cross may find initial support at the nine-day EMA of 161.57. A break below this level could weaken short-term price momentum, leading the currency cross toward the 50-day EMA at 160.13, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel at 159.30.
A further decline below this critical support zone could erode medium-term momentum, increasing downward pressure on the currency cross. This could push the EUR/JPY cross toward its monthly low of 155.59, recorded on March 4, and potentially to 154.41, the lowest level last seen in December 2023.
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USD | 0.50% | 0.25% | -0.01% | 0.19% | 0.48% | 0.54% | 0.06% | |
EUR | -0.50% | -0.25% | -0.49% | -0.31% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -0.43% | |
GBP | -0.25% | 0.25% | -0.25% | -0.06% | 0.25% | 0.29% | -0.20% | |
JPY | 0.01% | 0.49% | 0.25% | 0.17% | 0.50% | 0.51% | 0.06% | |
CAD | -0.19% | 0.31% | 0.06% | -0.17% | 0.32% | 0.37% | -0.14% | |
AUD | -0.48% | -0.00% | -0.25% | -0.50% | -0.32% | 0.04% | -0.40% | |
NZD | -0.54% | -0.04% | -0.29% | -0.51% | -0.37% | -0.04% | -0.48% | |
CHF | -0.06% | 0.43% | 0.20% | -0.06% | 0.14% | 0.40% | 0.48% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The EUR/JPY cross extends the rally to around 163.45 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. As widely expected, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday after three hikes in the year since it ended the world’s last negative interest rate. The attention will shift to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data from the Eurozone and the speeches from the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers later on Wednesday.
The BoJ decided to keep the short-term interest rates target unchanged in the range of 0.40%- 0.50% at its March meeting on Wednesday. The decision aligned with the market expectations. The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades slightly weaker against the Euro (EUR) in an immediate reaction to the rate decision. The swaps markets are now pricing in nearly 71% odds of a hike by July and certainty by October.
Investors will keep an eye on the press conference by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, which might offer some hints about the interest rate path in Japan. Meanwhile, the heightened economic uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows, which might underpin the JPY.
On the Euro front, the German parliament's approval of plans for a massive spending surge throws off decades of fiscal conservatism in hopes of boosting economic growth and scaling up military spending for a new era of European collective defence. This, in turn, lifts the shared currency against its rivals. "Germany, and by extension the euro zone, getting their fiscal act together is not only long overdue, but supports the bull case for the common currency over the medium-term," noted Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The EUR/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buyers for the third straight day on Tuesday and climbs beyond a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) during the Asian session. The momentum lifts spot prices to the 163.35 area, or the highest level since January 27 in the last hour, and is sponsored by the offered tone surrounding the Japanese Yen (JPY).
The global risk sentiment remains well supported by the latest optimism over China's stimulus measures announced over the weekend to boost domestic consumption. Adding to this hopes for a Ukraine peace deal ahead of talks between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin further boost investors' confidence. This, in turn, is seen undermining the safe-haven JPY and acting as a tailwind for the EUR/JPY cross.
Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates this year. The bets were reaffirmed by positive results from Shunto spring wage negotiations where firms largely agreed to union demands for strong wage growth for the third consecutive year. This, along with worries about a global trade war, should help limit deeper JPY losses.
Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial BoJ policy decision on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from a five-month low is seen exerting some downward pressure on the shared currency, which might contribute to keeping a lid on the EUR/JPY cross. Next on tap is the release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index.
The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
Read more.Next release: Tue Mar 18, 2025 10:00
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 48.1
Previous: 26
The EUR/JPY cross loses momentum to around 162.15 during the early European session on Monday. The encouraging news from China's stimulus measures announced over the weekend provides some support to the Asian equity markets, which undermine the safe-haven currency like the Japanese Yen (JPY). However, the rising bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its interest rates further might help limit the JPY’s losses.
Technically, the positive outlook of EUR/JPY remains in play as the cross is well-supported above the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The upward momentum is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which stands above the midline near 61.40, displaying bullish momentum in the near term.
The first upside target for the cross emerges at 162.55, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Extended gains could see a rally to 163.22, the high of January 22. The additional upside filter to watch is the 164.00-164.10 zone, representing the psychological level and the high of January 24.
On the other hand, the crucial support level for EUR/JPY is located at the 160.15-160.00 region, the confluence of the round figure, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band and the low of March 13. Sustained trading below the mentioned level could see a drop to the next contention level at 159.68, the 100-period EMA, followed by 158.90, the low of March 10.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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