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CFD Trading Rate Great Britain Pound vs Japanese Yen (GBPJPY)

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Change (%)
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Over the past 10 days
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  • 11.07.2024 19:37
    GBP/JPY Price Analysis:  Plunges amid intervention fears, hoovers around 205.00
    • GBP/JPY experiences volatility, peaking at 208.11, then dips to 203.82, settling at 204.99.
    • Downward momentum observed; support at 203.25 (Kijun-Sen) and 200.16 (50-DMA).
    • Resistance positioned at 205.00 and 205.64 (Tenkan-Sen); breach could signal recovery.

    The Pound-Yen pair witnessed a volatile session amid speculation of Japanese authorities' intervention after the latest US inflation report announcement. The GBP/JPY traveled 425 pips in the session, hitting a high of 208.11 before plummeting toward 203.82. Since then, the cross stabilized at around the 204.99 mark, sustaining more than 1.20% losses.

    GBP/JPY Price Analysis:  Technical outlook

    The GBP/JPY daily chart shows the pair as upward biased, even though it cleared the Tenkan-Sen level at 205.64, which accelerated the pair’s fall underneath the Senkou Span A at 204.45. Nevertheless, it has recovered some ground, though in the near term, momentum supports sellers.

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish but shows a steeper slope to the downside at the time of writing, hinting that bears loom.

    In a bearish continuation, sellers must push the prices below the abovementioned Senkou Span A, which could pave the way to test the Kijun-Sen at 203.25. A further downside is seen at the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 200.16, ahead of the Senkou Span B at 199.3.

    Conversely, if GBP/JPY recovers some ground and clears 205.00, further gains lie ahead. The cross could aim towards the Tenkan-Sen at 205.64 before challenging 206.00.

    GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 11.07.2024 12:02
    GBP/JPY rises to new 16-year high after Pound Sterling rallies on strong GDP data
    • GBP/JPY rallies to a new high above 208 after the release of better-than-expected UK GDP data supports GBP. 
    • The data could lead the BoE to take a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates, supporting GBP.
    • Japanese PPI inflation data rose strongly in June but BoJ is still not expected to aggressively raise rates, weighing on JPY.
       

    GBP/JPY has reached a new 16-year high of 208.11 on Thursday, driven by an appreciating  Pound Sterling (GBP) after the release of better-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the United Kingdom, in May. 

    GBP/JPY Daily Chart


     

    The UK economy grew at a pace of 0.4% month-over-month in May, higher than economists’ consensus estimates of 0.2% and April’s 0.0%, according to data from the Office of National Statistics (ONS), released on Thursday. 

    “Many retailers and wholesalers had a good month, with both bouncing back from a weak April. Construction grew at its fastest rate in almost a year after recent weakness, with house building and infrastructure projects boosting the industry”, said Liz McKeown, Director of Economic Statistics at the ONS.

    The stronger growth data for May suggests UK GDP growth in Q2 could come out at 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is higher than the Bank of England’s (BoE) forecast of 0.5%, according to Capital Economics. 

    “​​At the margin this may mean the Bank (BoE) doesn’t need to rush to cut interest rates. We still think the Bank will cut interest rates from 5.25% to 5.00% at the next policy meeting in August, although the timing of the first cut will be heavily influenced by June’s inflation and May’s labour market data releases next week,” says Ashley Webb, UK Economist at Capital Economics. 

    Though still unlikely, a delay in the timing of the BoE’s first rate cut would lead to a stronger Pound Sterling. More probable is that the BoE reduces interest rates at a slower pace. This too would support GBP, however, since higher interest rates are positive for currencies as they attract greater inflows of foreign capital.  It would also probably push GBP/JPY higher. That said, expectations remain elevated the BoE will pull the trigger and cut rates in August. 

    “We believe it is a done deal (August rate cut), as there is simply no reason to wait until September 19.  Inflation is already at the 2% target, while the economic data have clearly softened in recent months,” said Dr. Win Thin, Global Head of Markets Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH). 

    GBP/JPY upside capped by hot Japanese inflation 

    GBP/JPY upside may be tempered, however, after recent hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data from Japan. PPI measures “factory gate price” inflation which is often a precursor to inflation in the wider economy. PPI in June came out at 2.9% year-over-year, beating the previous month’s 2.6% YoY reading and in line with consensus expectations. It was the fifth consecutive month of increasing gains for the indicator, the 41st consecutive month of PPI inflation, and the highest reading since August 2023.  

    Despite the higher inflation data the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is still not expected to begin an aggressive tightening cycle in which it ratchets up interest rates in meeting after meeting. Rather it is only expected to make 0.35% of interest-rate hikes in the next 12 months according to BBH, so “upwards pressure” is likely to persist in Yen pairs. 

    GBP/JPY faces a further risk of “stealth intervention” by the Japanese authorities to prop up the Japanese Yen (JPY), according to Sagar Dua, Editor at FXStreet. In late April and early May 2024, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) undertook direct market interventions to buttress the Yen when it was at lower levels. A too-weak Yen is seen as a financial stability risk for importers and encourages the “wrong kind” of inflation in the economy, according to Japanese policy makers and currency czars.

     

  • 10.07.2024 21:32
    GBP/JPY continues to grind higher, sets fresh 16-year peak
    • GBP/JPY gained 0.72% on Wednesday as Yen continues to plummet.
    • Thin data leaves central bank talkers as the driver of market sentiment.
    • BoE remains captive to inflation data looking forward.

    GBP/JPY continues to grind out fresh 16-year highs in unrelenting Yen pressure, and the Guppy found a new peak above 207.80 on Wednesday. A lack of notable data from Japan leaves the Yen at the bottom of a very deep rate differential hole, and a bounce in market hopes for a rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE) gave the Pound Sterling a leg up across the board.

    Despite cautionary statements from two BoE policymakers on Wednesday, the warning tones weren’t cautious enough, and markets bolstered the GBP on expectations of a BoE rate cut in August. UK inflation has made plenty of progress since peaking in the double digits, price growth remains a key stumbling block for the UK’s central bank.

    Coming up on Thursday, UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures for May will either help or hinder rate cut hopes. MoM Industrial Production is expected to rebound to 0.2% from the previous -0.9% contraction, while Manufacturing Production is forecast to recover to 0.4% from the previous -1.4% decline.

    Read more from BoE:
    BoE's Mann: We need to see sustained slower service inflation
    BoE's Pill: Open question whether time for cutting rates is now upon us

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    The Guppy continues to break into fresh highs on the charts, shattering any technical resistance before it even gets the chance to finish forming. The pair is already on pace to chalk in another firmly green weekly candle, and GBP/JPY has seen a week-on-week gain for all but one of the last nine consecutive trading weeks.

    GBP/JPY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    Japanese Yen FAQs

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

    One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.

    The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.

    The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

     

  • 09.07.2024 21:27
    GBP/JPY takes a breather at the top end of stellar run
    • GBP/JPY churns the waters just north of 206.00.
    • UK and Japan data remain limited this week, market flows set to continue.
    • UK industrial and manufacturing output figures due later in the week.

    GBP/JPY failed to set a new multi-year high on Tuesday as the pair churns on the high end of the 206.00 handle. Long-running Yen weakness has left the pair stuck in the rafters of its highest prices in 16 years.

    Data remains thin this week for the Japanese Yen (JPY), but broader markets continue to keep an eye out for any signs of direct market intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) that have routinely lamented the Yen’s poor performance against the majority of its major currency peers. However, a rock-bottom Japanese reference rate and a still-wide rate differential between the Yen and the rest of the major currency bloc has left the JPY with little direction to move but down.

    UK data is strictly mid-tier this week, with GBP traders looking ahead to Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures due in the back half of the trading week on Thursday. A couple of appearances from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers are slated for early Wednesday but are not expected to rock the policy boat.

    Thursday’s UK Industrial Production in May is expected to rebound to 0.2% MoM from the previous month’s -0.9% contraction, and UK Manufacturing Production is forecast to recover 0.4% MoM from the previous -1.4% decline.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    GBP/JPY fell away from fresh 16-year highs above 206.50 set earlier in the week, settling back into familiar intraday territory at the 206.00 handle. Technical pressure is still firmly pinned into the bullish side, but topside momentum is showing signs of petering out, and progress in swing highs is slowly rapidly as bidders run out of gas.

    Spinning top daily candles are getting priced into the Guppy charts, and traders should be on the lookout for a retreat to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 200.00. Despite odds of a near-term pullback, the long-term trend heavily favors the bulls, and a rebound from major technical levels could be on the cards looking forward.

    GBP/JPY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 08.07.2024 22:49
    GBP/JPY briefly tests fresh 16-year highs before pulling into the midrange
    • GBP/JPY found yet another new 16-year peak, but momentum is slumping.
    • Strictly mid-tier data is on the economic calendar for the Guppy this week.
    • GBP/JPY continues to grind out fresh peaks, but topping patterns are growing.

    GBP/JPY briefly tested a fresh 16-year peak as the pair continues to grind out years-long high bids. The Guppy touched 206.67 before settling back into Monday’s opening range. Despite setting regular new highs in a one-sided trend, bullish momentum appears to be drying up as the pair begins to hesitate on the top end of a nearly seven-month bull run.

    Economic data remains light for both the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) this week. Japanese Labor Cash Earnings, reported early on Monday, rose for the year ended in May, but less than expected. Wages grew 1.9% YoY versus the previous revised 1.6%, missing the forecast of 2.1%. Little else of note remains on the data docket this week for the Yen, leaving JPY traders to struggle at the bottom of a long slide in the currency at the hands of a wide rate differential between the JPY and other major global currencies.

    UK data also remains limited this week, with various appearances from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers slated for Wednesday and industrial and manufacturing activity survey results on the books for Thursday.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    GBP/JPY fell away from fresh 16-year highs above 206.50 set on Monday, settling back into familiar intraday territory at the 206.00 handle. Technical pressure is still firmly pinned into the bullish side, but topside momentum is showing signs of petering out, and progress in swing highs is slowly rapidly as bidders run out of gas.

    Spinning top daily candles are getting priced into the Guppy charts, and traders should be on the lookout for a retreat to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 200.00. Despite odds of a near-term pullback, the long-term trend heavily favors the bulls, and a rebound from major technical levels could be on the cards looking forward.

    GBP/JPY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 05.07.2024 03:27
    GBP/JPY moves away from multi-year top, slides to 205.00 neighborhood amid intervention fears
    • GBP/JPY attracts sellers for the second straight day, though the downside seems limited.
    • Intervention fears prompt some JPY short-covering and exert pressure on spot prices.
    • The BoJ’s dovish stance and the risk-on mood warrant some caution for aggressive bears.

    The GBP/JPY cross drifts lower for the second straight day on Friday and moves away from its highest level since August 2008, around the 206.15 area touched earlier this week. Spot prices currently trade just above the 205.00 psychological mark, down nearly 0.35% for the day amid fears that Japanese authorities or the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might intervene in the markets to prop up the domestic currency. 

    In fact, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki cross the wires earlier today and said that he will closely monitor stock and forex markets with vigilance, adding that a weak Japanese Yen (JPY) is having an impact on prices. That said, any meaningful JPY appreciation still seems elusive in the wake of a dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which, so far, has been reluctant to provide a detailed plan for the reduction of bond purchases and further rate increases. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment should cap the safe-haven JPY and limit losses for the GBP/JPY cross. 

    The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, gets a minor boost after exit polls suggested that Britain’s main opposition Labour Party was set to win a massive majority in the UK general election. Meanwhile, the outcome sets the stage for a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in August, which should act as a headwind for the Sterling and the GBP/JPY cross. Furthermore, the overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart might prompt some profit-taking heading into the weekend. Nevertheless, spot prices seem poised to end in the positive territory for the fourth successive week.

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 04.07.2024 20:17
    GBP/JPY takes a breather at the top end of 13-day win streak
    • GBP/JPY is middling on Thursday, pausing after a 13-day climb.
    • Data for both currencies remains limited, but UK elections could spark volatility.
    • Japanese Yen likely to continue deflating as BOJ remains stubbornly easy on policy.

    GBP/JPY is taking a breather after stellar 13-consecutive-trading-day win streak, holding close to the high end of a 3.5% bottom-to-top near-term rally. Meaningful economic data is absent from the economic calendar on Thursday. Still, upcoming UK Parliamentary Election results could spark moves in either direction as traders tend to reward political upheaval with an overall uptick in volatility.

    A 14-year run for the UK’s Conservative Tory party is set to end on Thursday, as early entry polls heading into the election noted an extreme likelihood of a sweeping victory for the UK’s Labour Party. Labour’s Keir Starmer is set to replace incumbent UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as the British populace looks set to pivot away from the party that has struggled since strongarming Brexit across the finish line. 

    Japanese economic data is firmly low-tier for the remainder of the trading week, and the Yen is doomed to continue spiraling lower as the still-wide interest rate differential between the JPY and most other major currencies is an unavoidable hurdle to Japanese policymakers that have been attempting to intervene in market flows with threats of direct intervention for weeks. Effects of verbal intervention have fully decayed as the Yen sinks to multi-year, and in some cases, multi-decade lows across the board.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    Topside technical barriers have all evaporated as GBP/JPY continues to grind into fresh 16-year highs regularly, and the pair is sticking close to the high end after cracking above the 206.00 handle this week.

    The Guppy is buried deep in bull country in a long-term one-sided trend. The pair has traded almost exclusively north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently rising through 190.80 since climbing above the long-term moving average in the first quarter of 2023.

    It would take an 8% decline to drag GBP/JPY black into bearish territory below the key moving average, and the pair has closed in the green on a week-on-week basis for all but five of the last 26 trading weeks, and is on pace to chalk in a 26th.

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 03.07.2024 22:18
    GBP/JPY soars even further, crosses 206.00 as Yen continues to deflate
    • GBP/JPY gains further ground, chalks in a 13-day win streak.
    • UK PMI figures improved slightly in June, bolstering GBP.
    • UK elections on Thursday to introduce some volatility.

    GBP/JPY rose to yet another fresh 16-year high on Wednesday, crossing the 206.00 handle after extending recent gains into a 13-trading-day winning streak. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to flounder at the bottom of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) hyper easy monetary policy stance. Still, the UK’s upcoming Parliamentary Elections on Thursday could spark fresh volatility in GBP pairs.

    The BoJ remains bitterly entrenched in an extremely loose monetary policy stance, and the wide rate differential between the Yen and other major currencies has left the JPY to swirl the drain and steadily decline against broader markets. Despite a steady stream of cautionary statements from Japanese policymakers, Yen action remains firmly one-sided.

    The UK’s upcoming Parliamentary Election could introduce a fresh round of volatility into the Pound Sterling on Thursday. The UK’s Labour Party is broadly expected to sweep into a majority government, overturning 14 years of Conservative party leadership. According to the most recent batch of mega polls released on Wednesday, Labour is expected to utterly devastate the Tories, and Labour’s Keir Starmer is expected to replace the Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Labour is projected to win 431 seats compared to the Tories' projected win of just 102 according to polling by YouGov.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    Bullish momentum has accelerated further in the Guppy, dragging the pair over the 206.00 handle on Wednesday and chalking in a thirteenth consecutive trading day ending in the green. 

    GBP/JPY is up 13.3% from 2024’s early low bids near 178.75, trading deep into bull country above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 190.65.

    GBP/JPY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 02.07.2024 20:35
    GBP/JPY continues march towards 205.00 as Yen declines extend
    • GBP/JPY is on pace to clip into 205.00 as the pair machines through multi-year highs.
    • A lack of notable data on Tuesday left the Guppy free to drift higher.
    • UK Parliamentary Elections loom ahead on Thursday.

    GBP/JPY drifted into yet another 16-year high on Tuesday, peaking near 204.85 as the pair continues to grind towards 205.00. The Japanese Yen is crumbling in broader FX markets as currency traders shrug off outright pleas and threats of direct intervention from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF).

    Tuesday was notably light on data releases for both the GBP and the JPY, giving the Guppy room to breathe and test into fresh highs as bids continue to push into ground unseen since August of 2008. The economic calendar remains thin for both currencies through the remainder of the trading week, but UK Parliamentary Elections slated for Thursday could introduce some volatility into the election run-up and after results are tallied. The UK’s Labour Party is broadly expected to sweep to a majority win according to advance polling, and Labour’s Keir Starmer is expected to replace the Conservative Party’s Tory leader Rishi Sunak as the UK’s Prime Minister.

    Japanese data remains notably thin looking to the weeks ahead, leaving Yen traders to keep an eye out for one-off statements from officials as JPY speculators hunker down for the long wait to the BoJ’s next rate call, slated for July 31.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    GBP/JPY continues to lean firmly bullish as intraday price gains accelerate into the top side. The pair is set to snap the 205.00 major price handle, and the pair would have to decline a full percent just to cross back into bearish territory below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) approaching 203.00.

    The Guppy has closed in the green for 12 consecutive trading days, and a long-term bullish trend with few pullbacks has left the pair deep in bull country, trading well above significant technical levels at the 200-day EMA, way below current price action at 190.54.

    GBP/JPY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 02.07.2024 07:36
    GBP/JPY trades around 204.00 after pulling back from 16-year highs
    • GBP/JPY corrects from a 16-year high of 204.75 marked on Monday.
    • BRC Shop Price Index, an indicator of inflationary pressures in the UK, rose by 0.2% YoY in June, below the prior 0.6% increase.
    • The Japanese Yen may receive support from the verbal intervention by Japanese authorities.

    GBP/JPY halts its winning streak that began on June 17, trading around 204.00 during the early European session on Tuesday. The GBP/JPY cross reached a level of 204.75 on Monday, the highest since August 2008.

    This downturn can be attributed to the softer data released by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) on Tuesday. The BRC Shop Price Index (SPI) increased by 0.2% year-over-year in June, compared to the previous 0.6% increase. Changes in the SPI are closely monitored as an indicator of inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom (UK).

    Additionally, the Bank of England's (BoE) dovish pause in June has increased expectations for a rate cut at the August monetary policy meeting, potentially weakening the British Pound (GBP) and affecting the GBP/JPY cross.

    GBP traders will be watching the upcoming general election on Thursday. According to the latest exit polls, the Opposition Labour Party is anticipated to prevail over the Conservative Party led by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

    On the JPY’s front, the verbal intervention by Japanese authorities might support the Japanese Yen and limit the upside of the GBP/JPY cross. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated on Tuesday that he is "closely watching FX moves with vigilance." Suzuki refrained from commenting on specific forex levels, noting that there is no change in the government's stance on foreign exchange, according to Reuters.

    According to the latest Reuters survey conducted from June 25 to July 1, the Bank of Japan is expected to reduce its monthly bond purchases by roughly $100 billion (¥16.00 trillion) in the first year under a quantitative tightening (QT) plan set for release this month.

    Interest rates FAQs

    Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.

    Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.

    Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.

    The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.

     

  • 01.07.2024 21:09
    GBP/JPY climbs into another peak as Yen continues to decline
    • GBP/JPY marches to a fresh 16-year high above 204.00.
    • Guppy taps highest bids since August of 2008.
    • UK heads into Parliamentary elections later this week.

    GBP/JPY tipped into yet another 16-year high on Monday, peaking at 204.75 as the Yen continues to deteriorate across the board. Investors are snubbing a continuous stream of intervention rhetoric from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF). With the BoJ stubbornly entrenched in a hyper-easy monetary policy stance, the Yen is set to continue declining as the interest rate differential between the Yen and other major currencies shows no signs of narrowing.

    Economic data remains thin for both the Yen and the Pound Sterling this week, leaving GBP traders to focus on the UK’s upcoming Parliamentary elections slated for Thursday. Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index rose to 13.0 in Q2, up from the previous quarter’s 11.0.

    Q1 UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose to 0.7% QoQ last Friday, clipping above the forecast hold at 0.6%, bolstering the Pound Sterling. Japanese Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation also increased to 2.3% YoY through June compared to the previous 2.2%, but the figure wasn’t enough to spark any signs of hawkishness from the BoJ.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    The Guppy has accelerated into the top end as bidding pressure continues to build, clipping into a fresh 16-year peak at 204.75. GBP/JPY has closed in the green for eleven consecutive trading days.

    The pair has climbed 14.55% bottom-to-top from 2024’s early low bids of 178.14, and one-sided price action has dragged GBP/JPY deep into bull country. The pair has no meaningful technical resistance levels overhead, and the pair is trading well into the north side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 190.35.

    GBP/JPY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

  • 27.06.2024 22:26
    GBP/JPY extends into further multi-year highs on Thursday
    • GBP/JPY touches fresh 16-year highs as Yen continues to backslide.
    • Japanese Retail Trade ticked higher, Tokyo CPI inflation next on the docket.
    • UK GDP revision slated for Friday, little change expected.

    GBP/JPY tapped a fresh 16-year high of 203.39 on Thursday as the Yen continues ot get pushed lower across the board. An uptick in Japanese Retail Sales early Thursday failed to spark a recovery in the Yen as JPY traders buckle down for the last print of Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation due early Friday.

    The UK will also be delivering a fresh revision to first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, but little change is expected and Q1 UK GDP is expected to hold steady at 0.6%, in-line with the initial print.

    Core Tokyo CPI is expected to tick upwards slightly to 2.0% YoY in June, but the upswing is likely not enough to push the Bank of Japan (BoJ) out of its stubborn, long-running hypereasy monetary policy stance. With BoJ reference rates functionally at zero and a significant ratio of Japanese government bonds scooped up by the Japanese central bank itself, the Yen’s battered stance is unlikely to change, regardless of a carousel of increasingly concerned threats of direct intervention in FX markets by Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

    Economic Indicator

    Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY)

    The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households in the Tokyo region. The index is widely considered as a leading indicator of Japan’s overall CPI as it is published weeks before the nationwide reading. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

    Read more.

    Next release: Thu Jun 27, 2024 23:30

    Frequency: Monthly

    Consensus: -

    Previous: 2.2%

    Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    The Guppy has traded so firmly traded into the bullish side in one-sided action that the pair has not pulled back to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) since the start of 2024 when the pair briefly eased below the 180.00 handle before proceeding to climb over 13% from January’s opening bids at 179.55.

    GBP/JPY has set a fresh 16-year high for five consecutive days in lopsided bullish action, and the pair has likewise chalked in nine straight green trading days as the pair continues to climb into multi-year peaks.

    GBP/JPY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

     

  • 26.06.2024 21:53
    GBP/JPY sets new 16-year high for a fourth straight day
    • GBP/JPY continues to climb to fresh highs as Yen extends backslide.
    • Floundering JPY draws out more direct warnings from Japanese officials.
    • Market flows unlikely to change as rate differential remains wide.

    GBP/JPY set a fresh 16-year high on Wednesday, marking the fourth consecutive day the Guppy has reached a new peak as the Japanese Yen continues to tumble. Increasingly stern alerts from Japanese policymakers regarding the pace of the Yen’s decline has produced very little results as investors await actual policy changes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF). 

    Currency chief Masato Kanda, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister noted early Wednesday that he has “serious concern about the recent rapid weakening of the yen”, within Kanda continuing that he and the MoF are closely monitoring market trends with a high sense of urgency”. Kanda ended with saying that “we will take necessary actions against any excessive movements.”

    GBP/JPY briefly softened to 202.40 before Guppy traders promptly responded by pushing the pair to a fresh 16-year high at 203.15.

    The back half of the trading week kicks off a raft of impactful data for Japan and the UK, with Japanese Retail Trade figures due early Thursday. The Bank of England (BoE) will release its latest Financial Stability Report later in the day, leaving Yen pairs to pivot to face down the latest Japanese Tokyo Consum Price Index (CPI) inflation figures due early Friday. The UK’s first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be revised to round out the trading week.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    A steady grind into the high side leaves GBP/JPY with little meaningful technical resistance levels. The pair has risen 2% from the last swing low into 198.90, trading steadily north of the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rising into 201.60.

    Daily candlesticks have churned out an eighth consecutive gain as the Guppy continues its march towards 204.00. The pair is up 13% in 2024, and has closed in the green for six straight months.

    GBP/JY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

     

  • 25.06.2024 20:27
    GBP/JPY hits another 16-year high as markets dare BoJ to intervene
    • GBP/JPY chalks in a fresh multi-year high of 202.73 on Tuesday.
    • Guppy on pace for a sixth straight month of gains.
    • FX markets continue to sell off the Yen broadly.

    GBP/JPY continues its march higher as the Japanese Yen slumps across the board. Buried beneath irreversible market flows, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains stubbornly planted in a hyper-easy monetary policy stance. Attempts to verbally talk the Yen back up, up to and including veiled threats of direct market intervention, have done little to stem the tide of short pressure built up in JPY markets.

    A quiet early—to mid-week economic calendar leaves the Guppy churning on thin market flows. The back half of the trading week promises a more impactful schedule, with Japanese inflation and UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on the agenda.

    Japanese Large Retail Sales will kick off the Guppy’s late-week release schedule early Thursday. Japanese Retail Trade is expected to print a slight decline to 2.0% from 2.4% for the year ended in May. The Bank of England’s (BoE) latest Financial Stability Report will also be released on Thursday.

    Friday will round out the week with Japan’s latest Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, followed by the UK’s first-quarter GDP revision which is expected to hold steady at 0.6%.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    The Guppy ticked into a fresh 16-year high on Tuesday, clipping 202.73. The pair is on pace to close flat or higher for the seventh consecutive trading day, and GBP/JPY has risen over 6% from mid-May.

    GBP/JPY has traded well north of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 198.86, rising nearly 13.5% bottom-to-top in 2024. The Guppy has closed flat or in the green for all but six of the last 25 consecutive trading weeks, and markets will be on the lookout for any signs of structural intervention from the BoJ as GBP/JPY continues the march to 204.00.

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    GBP/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 202.58
    Today Daily Change 0.08
    Today Daily Change % 0.04
    Today daily open 202.5
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 200.27
    Daily SMA50 197.34
    Daily SMA100 193.82
    Daily SMA200 188.88
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 202.7
    Previous Daily Low 201.14
    Previous Weekly High 202.09
    Previous Weekly Low 199.06
    Previous Monthly High 200.75
    Previous Monthly Low 191.37
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 202.11
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 201.74
    Daily Pivot Point S1 201.52
    Daily Pivot Point S2 200.55
    Daily Pivot Point S3 199.95
    Daily Pivot Point R1 203.09
    Daily Pivot Point R2 203.68
    Daily Pivot Point R3 204.66

     

     

  • 24.06.2024 19:40
    GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls persist and propelled pair to fresh cycle, overbought signals arise
    • GBP/JPY extends its rally, hitting fresh cycle highs of around 202.50 on Monday.
    • Daily RSI and MACD stand near overbought territory.
    • Trend remains bullish but overbought conditions suggest potential corrections.

    During Monday's session, the GBP/JPY pair sustained its uptrend, hitting new cycle highs around 202.50, reaching its highest point since 2007. Despite sellers making strides earlier in the session, bringing the pair down to a low of 106.14, buyers managed to counteract and propel the pair back to fresh cycle highs.

    The Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 68, settling slightly below the overbought territory. The upsurge recorded in last Friday’s readings hints at remaining bullish momentum, though the swift approach to overbought conditions may suggest a potential incoming correction. The Daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to display rising green bars, implying that the bullish momentum is still in the play, albeit approaching a crest.

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    In summary, the GBP/JPY pair's solid performance on Monday underpins a broader bullish trend. The trend's positive outlook is validated by the pair's position above the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, as current indicators suggest over-extended movements, traders might brace for a likely correction event.

    If the pair falls below the immediate support level set at 202.00, followed by the 201.00 and 202.20 levels (20-day SMA), it would likely seek new support thresholds at around the 200.00 psychological area. Conversely, resistance is seen near the psychological mark of 203.00 and further at 203.50, in case the bulls persist.

     

    GBP/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 202.6
    Today Daily Change 0.52
    Today Daily Change % 0.26
    Today daily open 202.08
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 200.16
    Daily SMA50 197.13
    Daily SMA100 193.66
    Daily SMA200 188.78
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 202.09
    Previous Daily Low 200.48
    Previous Weekly High 202.09
    Previous Weekly Low 199.06
    Previous Monthly High 200.75
    Previous Monthly Low 191.37
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 201.47
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 201.09
    Daily Pivot Point S1 201.01
    Daily Pivot Point S2 199.94
    Daily Pivot Point S3 199.4
    Daily Pivot Point R1 202.62
    Daily Pivot Point R2 203.16
    Daily Pivot Point R3 204.23

     

     

  • 20.06.2024 21:54
    GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Subdued, trades flat above 201.00
    • GBP/JPY remains upward biased with support from a bullish yet trendless RSI, hinting at stable rates.
    • Key resistance at YTD high of 201.61 and the 202.00 mark.
    • Key support levels include 201.00, Tenkan-Sen at 200.26, Senkou Span A at 199.71, and Kijun-Sen at 199.15.

    The GBP/JPY remained subdued on Thursday yet finished up 0.06%, virtually unchanged. As Friday’s Asian Pacific session begins, the cross trades at 201.11, flat.

    GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

    According to the daily chart, the GBP/JPY remains upward biased and is backed by momentum as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, though trendless. This hints that the cross might remain at around current exchange rates amid the lack of catalysts and fears of Japanese authority's intervention.

    On the upside, the GBP/JPY first resistance would be the year-to-date (YTD) high at 201.61, ahead of the 202.00 mark.

    On further weakness, the cross could tumble below 201.00 and test the Tenkan-Sen at 200.26, the first support level, followed by the Senkou Span A at 199.71. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the Kijun-Sen at 199.15.

    GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

    GBP/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 201.19
    Today Daily Change 0.08
    Today Daily Change % 0.04
    Today daily open 201.11
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 199.96
    Daily SMA50 196.73
    Daily SMA100 193.36
    Daily SMA200 188.6
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 201.13
    Previous Daily Low 200.42
    Previous Weekly High 201.62
    Previous Weekly Low 198.92
    Previous Monthly High 200.75
    Previous Monthly Low 191.37
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 200.86
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 200.69
    Daily Pivot Point S1 200.64
    Daily Pivot Point S2 200.18
    Daily Pivot Point S3 199.93
    Daily Pivot Point R1 201.35
    Daily Pivot Point R2 201.6
    Daily Pivot Point R3 202.06

     

     

  • 19.06.2024 19:30
    GBP/JPY continues slow grind back into decade-plus highs
    • GBP/JPY testing highest bids since August 2008 as Yen flounders.
    • Slumping UK data trims Sterling gains, but GBP march continues.
    • BoE rate call due Thursday, expected to hold rates steady.

    GBP/JPY is holding staunchly on the high side, trading into the 201.00 handle in thin Wednesday action and keeping pinned close to 16-year highs near 201.60. The Guppy trailed into fresh peaks last week and continues to roil close to the top end despite a near-term knockback below 199.00.

    UK economic data mostly missed the mark in the front half of the trading week, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and the Retail Price Index both slightly flubbing forecasts. However, GBP traders will be pivoting to face down Thursday’s upcoming Bank of England (BoE) rate call. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is broadly expected to vote seven-to-two to keep rates held at 5.25%, with two members of the MPC expected to vote in favor of a rate cut, inline with the previous meeting.

    Japanese National Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is also due early Friday, with annualized Core National CPI inflation expected to tick upwards to 2.6% from 2.2%. Japanese national-level CPI inflation tends to have a muted effect as the data event is previewed by Tokyo CPI inflation several weeks ahead of time.

    Friday will follow up with UK Retail Sales, which are expected to rebound in May, forecast to print at 1.5% MoM versus the previous month’s -2.3% decline. S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) activity figures will round out the UK’s economic calendar this week. The UK Manufacturing PMI is expected to tick up to 51.3 from 51.2, wit the Services component expect to make a similar move, forecast to rise to 53.0 from 52.9.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    GBP/JPY pulled itself back upwards after a brief dip below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 200.20, but the pair is still trudging through chart paper below last week’s fresh 16-year peak above 201.60.

    Bullish momentum is firmly planted front and center, with GBP/JPY trading well north of the 200-day EMA rising towards 190.00. The pair has trading on the high side of the long-term moving average since bouncing from the key technical indicator at the beginning of 2024, and the Guppy is up 12% for the year.

    GBP/JPY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    GBP/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 200.95
    Today Daily Change 0.33
    Today Daily Change % 0.16
    Today daily open 200.62
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 199.87
    Daily SMA50 196.54
    Daily SMA100 193.22
    Daily SMA200 188.51
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 200.85
    Previous Daily Low 200.02
    Previous Weekly High 201.62
    Previous Weekly Low 198.92
    Previous Monthly High 200.75
    Previous Monthly Low 191.37
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 200.53
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 200.34
    Daily Pivot Point S1 200.15
    Daily Pivot Point S2 199.68
    Daily Pivot Point S3 199.33
    Daily Pivot Point R1 200.97
    Daily Pivot Point R2 201.32
    Daily Pivot Point R3 201.8

     

     

  • 18.06.2024 12:32
    GBP/JPY recovery stalls near 200.00 as focus shifts to UK Inflation
    • GBP/JPY recovery appears to have slowed near 200.00 as UK Inflation comes under the spotlight.
    • The UK annual headline inflation is expected to return to BoE’s 2% target.
    • The BoJ postponed plans to reduce bond-buying operations.

    The GBP/JPY pair struggles to extend recovery above the psychological resistance of 200.00 in Tuesday’s New York session. The cross is expected to trade sideways as investors shift focus to the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be published on Wednesday.

    Economists expect that the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) will report a sharp decline in the annual core CPI, which strips off the more volatile items, to 3.5% from 3.9% in April. In the same period, the headline inflation is expected to return to the bank’s target of 2.0% from the prior reading of 2.3%. The monthly headline inflation is estimated to have grown at a faster pace of 0.4% from 0.3% in April.

    A more-than-expected decline in UK inflation data will boost expectations of early rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). Though headline inflation is expected to return to 2%, investors will keenly focus on service inflation, which has been a major barrier to the BoE’s move towards policy normalization.

    Inflation in the UK service sector is majorly driven by strong growth, which has turned out to be persistent in the past few months. Average earnings excluding bonuses, which is a measure of wage inflation, have grown steadily by 6.0% for a straight three-period period. The pace at which wages are growing is significantly higher than what is needed to build confidence among BoE officials to consider rate cuts.

    On the Tokyo front, the Japanese Yen is weak across the FX domain as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) pushes plans of tapering bond-buying operations to the July meeting. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda left interest rates unchanged but didn’t rule out expectations for further policy tightening in July.

    This week, the major trigger for the Japanese Yen will be the National CPI data for May, which will be published on Friday. National CPI excluding Fresh Food is estimated to have accelerated to 2.6% from the prior reading of 2.2% on a year-on-year basis.

    GBP/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 200.41
    Today Daily Change 0.01
    Today Daily Change % 0.00
    Today daily open 200.4
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 199.76
    Daily SMA50 196.38
    Daily SMA100 193.09
    Daily SMA200 188.43
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 200.46
    Previous Daily Low 199.06
    Previous Weekly High 201.62
    Previous Weekly Low 198.92
    Previous Monthly High 200.75
    Previous Monthly Low 191.37
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 199.93
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 199.6
    Daily Pivot Point S1 199.49
    Daily Pivot Point S2 198.58
    Daily Pivot Point S3 198.1
    Daily Pivot Point R1 200.88
    Daily Pivot Point R2 201.37
    Daily Pivot Point R3 202.28

     

     

  • 14.06.2024 10:53
    GBP/JPY retreats below 200.00 despite BoJ postponing taper tantrum plans
    • GBP/JPY surrenders BoJ-led gains and drops below 200.00.
    • The BoJ left interest rates steady and postponed taper tantrum plans.
    • Steady UK wage growth remains a key barrier to BoE’s move towards policy-normalization.

    The GBP/JPY pair falls back below the psychological support of 200.00 to 199.50 in Friday’s European session after posting a fresh multi-year high of 201.62. The cross weakens even though the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept overnight rates in the range of 0%-0.1%. The BoJ was already expected to keep interest rates unchanged, however, the postponement of decision on tapering bond-buying to the July meeting was unexpected.

    At the conclusion of the policy meeting, BoJ Ueda said the bank would continue buying government bonds. However, earlier this month, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized on reducing bond purchases in a manner to move forward towards their agenda of exiting expansionary policy stance.

    This has raised concerns over scope of BoJ’s policy-normalization. Investors are already concerned over the same as price pressures in the Japanese economy are majorly driven by competitive exports due to weak Yen and not from the wage-growth spiral.

    In the United Kingdom (UK), uncertainty over Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts has deepened due to steady wage growth that fuels service inflation, and poor economic health and labor demand.

    The UK economic recovery appears to have stalled as monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) remained stagnant in April. Also, the labor market is facing lay-offs consistently from past four times. This indicates that the economy is struggling to bear the consequences of higher interest rates by the BoE. Currently, financial markets are split between August or September meeting about when the BoE will start reducing interest rates.

    GBP/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 199.56
    Today Daily Change -0.85
    Today Daily Change % -0.42
    Today daily open 200.41
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 199.57
    Daily SMA50 196.05
    Daily SMA100 192.84
    Daily SMA200 188.27
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 201.32
    Previous Daily Low 199.7
    Previous Weekly High 200.65
    Previous Weekly Low 197.21
    Previous Monthly High 200.75
    Previous Monthly Low 191.37
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 200.31
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 200.7
    Daily Pivot Point S1 199.63
    Daily Pivot Point S2 198.85
    Daily Pivot Point S3 198.01
    Daily Pivot Point R1 201.25
    Daily Pivot Point R2 202.1
    Daily Pivot Point R3 202.88

     

     

     

  • 13.06.2024 19:00
    GBP/JPY pulls back after hitting another fresh 16-year high, cracks 201.00
    • GBP/JPY hit a new 16-year peak of 201.32 on Thursday.
    • JPY traders are buckling down ahead of the BoJ’s latest rate call.
    • Sterling markets are shrugging off misses in UK data.

    GBP/JPY tested into a fresh 16-year high above 201.00 on Thursday, tipping into 201.32 before falling back into the previous day’s range as Guppy traders jostle for position ahead of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest rate call and Monetary Policy Statement. The BoJ’s latest rate statement is due early on Friday, and Sterling traders will be looking ahead to next week’s latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation update.

    UK data has broadly missed the mark this week, with an unexpected surge in unemployment claims and a sharper-than-forecast contraction in industrial activity. However, GBP traders have broadly shrugged off the bleaker economic outlook for the UK to bolster the Guppy as Japan’s hypereasy monetary policy stance keeps the Yen unsupported against its major currency peers. 

    The BoJ is broadly expected to hold rates at 0% early Friday, and investors aren’t expecting much movement from the Japanese central bank in the way of tightening monetary policy. The economic calendar remains thin on the UK side, leaving GBP traders to sit and wait for next Wednesday’s CPI inflation print, followed by Thursday’s rate call from the Bank of England (BoE). The BoE last voted 7-to-2 to keep interest rates steady at 5.25%, with only two Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members voting for a rate cut.

    GBP/JPY technical outlook

    GBP/JPY peaked at a fresh 16-year high of 201.32 early Thursday before quickly pulling back to the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 199.89. The pair is still tilted firmly into bullish territory, but downside pulses are keeping the pair in a choppy rising consolidation pattern.

    The Guppy closed five of the last six trading days in the green, and is showing signs of bullish exhaustion. The pair could be poised for a fresh drop to the 50-day EMA at 196.56, though GBP/JPY remains deep in bull country, trading above the 200-day EMA at 188.91.

    GBP/JPY hourly chart

    GBP/JPY daily chart

    GBP/JPY

    Overview
    Today last price 200.26
    Today Daily Change -0.32
    Today Daily Change % -0.16
    Today daily open 200.58
     
    Trends
    Daily SMA20 199.39
    Daily SMA50 195.87
    Daily SMA100 192.71
    Daily SMA200 188.18
     
    Levels
    Previous Daily High 200.95
    Previous Daily Low 199.94
    Previous Weekly High 200.65
    Previous Weekly Low 197.21
    Previous Monthly High 200.75
    Previous Monthly Low 191.37
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 200.56
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 200.33
    Daily Pivot Point S1 200.03
    Daily Pivot Point S2 199.49
    Daily Pivot Point S3 199.03
    Daily Pivot Point R1 201.03
    Daily Pivot Point R2 201.49
    Daily Pivot Point R3 202.04

     

     

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