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CFD Trading Rate New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar (NZDUSD)

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Change (%)
Date/Time (GMT 0)
Over the past 10 days
Date Rate Change

Related news

  • 12.07.2024 20:45
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Pairs regains ground, future depends on the 20-day SMA resistance hold
    • NZD/USD gains momentum resuming back above the 20-day SMA.
    • Bulls attempt to maintain control after Thursday's recovery transitioned the technical outlook towards a slightly bullish sentiment.

    On Friday's session, the NZD/USD demonstrated renewed strength after recovering from a period of decline, resulting in a rise to around 0.6120.

    Daily technical indicators present a cautiously optimistic picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 52 in positive territory. This rise signifies a strengthening bullish momentum, however, the market is still far from confirming a positive outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) prints decreasing red bars, indicative of slowing bearish momentum.

    NZD/USD daily chart

    On the upside, bulls will face a challenge at 0.6150 and 0.6200. Achieving a decisive close above these levels would signal a further establishment of control towards the bulls.

    Downward, the first line of defense lies at the convergence of the 100 and 200-day SMAs at 0.6070. A bearish turn below this level would incline the outlook back to the bearish side, potentially triggering a corrective slide towards 0.6050 and then to the 0.6030 support levels.

  • 12.07.2024 14:17
    NZD/USD rises to 0.6120 as firm Fed rate-cut prospects weaken US Dollar
    • NZD/USD gains to near 0.6120 as the US Dollar faces severe selling pressure.
    • The US Dollar declines as Fed rate-cut bets soar.
    • Weak Business NZ PMI boosts RBNZ’s rate-cut hopes.

    The NZD/USD pair moves higher to 0.6120 in Friday’s New York session. The Kiwi asset gains as the US Dollar (USD) remains in the bearish trajectory due to strong expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near the crucial support of 104.00. Meanwhile, the market sentiment remains cheerful amid firm Fed rate cut prospects. The S&P 500 has posted significant gains in the opening session, exhibiting strong risk-appetite of investors. 10-year US Treasury yields have retreated to near 4.19%.

    According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Fund Futures pricing data shows that rate cuts in September is a done deal. The data also shows that the central bank will cut interest rates further in November or December meeting.

    The expectations for Fed rate cuts have been propelled by cooling inflationary pressures. The United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June showed that progress in the disinflation process has resumed after a one-time blip in the first quarter.

    On the contrary, US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose at a stronger pace than expected in June. Annually, headline and core PPI accelerated to 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively.

    On the Asia-Pacific front, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak due to poor Business NZ PMI data for June. The PMI data came in at 41.1, contracted significantly from the prior release of 46.6.  This has dampened the NZ economic outlook and has improved expectations of early rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

    Economic Indicator

    Business NZ PMI

    The Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI), released by Business NZ on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production or employment.The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among goods producers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for NZD.

    Read more.

    Last release: Thu Jul 11, 2024 22:30

    Frequency: Monthly

    Actual: 41.1

    Consensus: -

    Previous: 47.2

    Source: Business NZ

     

  • 12.07.2024 08:34
    NZD/USD: A break above 0.6130 is possible – UOB Group

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.6065/0.6130 range, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

    NZD to break above 0.6130 in due time

    24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, NZD plunged to a low of 0.6060. Yesterday, we indicated that ‘the sharp drop appears to be overdone, and NZD is unlikely to weaken further.’ We expected NZD to trade in a range between 0.6070 and 0.6115.’ Instead of trading in a range, NZD popped to a high of 0.6134 before pulling back, closing at 0.6094 (+0.19%). The brief advance did not result in any increase in momentum. Today, we expect NZD to trade in a 0.6065/0.6130 range.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Yesterday (11 Jul, spot at 0.6090), we indicated that ‘downward momentum has increased somewhat. We were of the view that NZD could ‘edge lower, but the prospect of it breaking below 0.6045 is not high for now.’ In NY trade, NZD rose briefly above our ‘strong resistance’ level of 0.6130 (high of 0.6134). The breach of 0.6130 indicates that the tentative buildup in downward momentum has faded. The current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, probably between 0.6045 and 0.6155.”

  • 12.07.2024 07:23
    NZD/USD consolidates around 0.6100 as traders await US data
    • NZD/USD remains stable as traders await key economic data from the United States (US).
    • The Business NZ Manufacturing PMI fell to 41.1 in June, marking the 15th consecutive month of contraction.
    • The US Consumer Price Index declined by 0.1% MoM in June, marking its lowest level in over three years.

    NZD/USD hovers around 0.6100 in early European trading hours on Friday as investors react to New Zealand’s weak PMI data. The Business NZ Manufacturing PMI dropped to 41.1 in June from 47.2 in May. This has marked the 15th consecutive month of contraction and the third lowest value for a non-COVID lockdown month. Additionally, traders are awaiting the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the US Producer Price Index (PPI), both due on Friday, for further insights into the US economy.

    The NZD/USD pair received support from softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June has heightened expectations of a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.3% year-over-year in June, compared to May's increase of 3.4% and the same expectation. Meanwhile, the core CPI increased by 0.1% month-over-month, against the expected and prior rise of 0.2%.

    Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that the US economy appears to be on track to achieve 2% inflation. This suggests Goolsbee is gaining confidence that the time for cutting interest rates may soon be approaching. He also stated "My view is, this is what the path to 2% looks like," according to Reuters.

    Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained its cash rate at 5.5% on Wednesday, as expected. However, it suggested potential rate cuts in August if inflation declines as anticipated. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) might come under pressure due to the RBNZ's dovish monetary policy statement.

    New Zealand Dollar FAQs

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

    Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

     

  • 11.07.2024 23:01
    NZD/USD trims gains below 0.6100 ahead of US PPI data
    • NZD/USD trades on a weaker note around 0.6090 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
    • Odds of Fed rate cuts are growing after the softer-than-expected June US CPI inflation report. 
    • The RBNZ's dovish monetary policy statement undermines the Kiwi against the USD. 

    The NZD/USD pair trims gains near 0.6090 during the early Asian session on Friday. The pair loses traction after retreating from the previous session high of nearly 0.6135. Later on Friday, investors will keep an eye on the US June Producer Price Index (PPI) and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment gauge.

    Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Thursday showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% on a yearly basis in June, compared to a rise of 3.3% in May. This reading came in below the market consensus of 3.1%. Meanwhile, the annual core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 3.3% YoY in June, below the forecast and May's increase of 3.4%. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined 0.1%, while the core CPI was up 0.1%. 

    The softer US inflation data has triggered the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower its borrowing costs this year, which might weigh on the US Dollar (USD) in the near term. Investors are now pricing in a nearly 89% chance of a September Fed meeting rate cut, from 73% on Wednesday and around 50% a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

    On the other hand, a less hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to exert some selling pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) for the time being. The central bank left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged for the eighth consecutive meeting at 5.5% on Wednesday, as expected but hinted at possible rate cuts in August if inflation decreases as expected. 

    New Zealand Dollar FAQs

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

    Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

     

  • 11.07.2024 08:54
    NZD/USD: May fall towards 0.6045 – UOB Group

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range, probably between 0.6070 and 0.6115. But NZD could also edge lower; the prospect of it breaking below 0.6045 is not high for now, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

    The prospect of breaking below 0.6045 is not high

    24-HOUR VIEW: “The sharp drop in NZD that reached a low of 0.6060 was surprising (we were expected consolidation). The sharp drop appears to be overdone, and NZD is unlikely to weaken further. Today, NZD is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 0.6070 and 0.6115.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 0.6105), we held the view that the recovery in NZD has potential to extend to 0.6150. After NZD rose, we highlighted on Monday (08 Jul, spot at 0.6145) that ‘the risk is for further NZD strength, and the levels to watch are 0.6180 and 0.6200.’ NZD subsequently rose to 0.6171. Yesterday, it fell and broke below our ‘strong support’ level of 0.6100. Not only has upward momentum faded, but downward momentum has also increased somewhat. From here, NZD could edge lower, but at this time, the prospect of it breaking the major support at 0.6045 is not high. Should NZD break above 0.6130, it would mean that downward momentum has eased.”

  • 11.07.2024 08:00
    NZD/USD appreciates to near 0.6100 as traders await US inflation
    • NZD/USD rebounds ahead of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Thursday.
    • The US core CPI is expected to remain steady at 3.4% year-over-year in June.
    • The New Zealand Dollar may limit its upside due to dovish sentiment surrounding the RBNZ.

    NZD/USD recovers its recent losses, trading around 0.6090 during the European session on Thursday. Traders await the release of the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, scheduled for release on Thursday, for more clarity on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy direction.

    Market forecasts generally predict that the annualized US core CPI for the year ending in June will remain steady at 3.4%. Meanwhile, headline CPI inflation is expected to increase to 0.1% month-over-month in June, compared to the previous flat reading of 0.0%.

    Meanwhile, on Wednesday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell underscored the importance of closely monitoring the labor market, highlighting its significant deterioration. Additionally, Powell expressed confidence in the downward trend of inflation, following his remarks on Tuesday that emphasized the necessity of further data to strengthen confidence in the inflation outlook.

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faced pressure following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) dovish monetary policy statement. The central bank held its cash rate steady at 5.5% on Wednesday as expected but hinted at possible rate cuts in August if inflation decreases as anticipated.

    ING’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole observed, "The Bank displayed greater confidence in disinflation in the statement, noting that 'restrictive monetary policy has significantly reduced consumer price inflation.”

    Read the full article: A surprise dovish tilt by the RBNZ – ING

    Economic Indicator

    Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

    Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

    Read more.

    Next release: Thu Jul 11, 2024 12:30

    Frequency: Monthly

    Consensus: 3.4%

    Previous: 3.4%

    Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

    The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

  • 11.07.2024 00:52
    NZD/USD trims losses near 0.6100 ahead of US CPI data
    • NZD/USD rebounds to 0.6090 in Thursday’s early Asian session. 
    • The RBNZ held its policy rate at its July meeting and delivered a less hawkish tone. 
    • Fed’s Powell said central bank will make interest rate decisions based on data, not in consideration of political factors. 

    The NZD/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 0.6090 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The pair recovers some lost ground on the weaker US Dollar (USD) after retreating from the weekly high of nearly 0.6155. The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June will be in the spotlight on Thursday.

    On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to hold its Official Cash Rate (OCR) for the eighth consecutive meeting at 5.5%, the highest since December 2008. The board notes a risk that domestically driven inflation could be more persistent in the near term. The central bank expected headline inflation to return to within the 1 to 3% target range in the second half of this year. A less hawkish view on inflation is likely to exert some selling pressure on the Kiwi for the time being.

    On the USD’s front, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the US central bank would make interest rate decisions based on the data, the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks, and not in consideration of political factors. 

    Furthermore, Powell emphasized that the Fed will not be appropriate to cut the policy rate until they gain greater confidence in inflation heading sustainably towards the Fed’s 2% target. The cautious stance from the Fed might lift the Greenback in the near term. However, investors will take more cues from the key US inflation report later in the day. The softer CPI inflation reading could trigger the expectation of the Fed rate cuts this year and might weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the NZD. 

     

    New Zealand Dollar FAQs

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

    Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.



     

  • 10.07.2024 21:43
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Breach of 20-day SMA support opens door to further declines
    • NZD/USD faced heav losses, breaching the previously held 20-day SMA support, now resistance.
    • The technical outlook transitions towards a bearish sentiment, following Wednesday's sharp decline.
    • Bears broke the 20-day SMA and are eyeing the strong support formed by the convergence of the 100 and 200-day SMAs near 0.6070.

    On Wednesday, the NZD/USD dropped, losing more than 0.70% to 0.6080, obliterating its support at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which was regained last week and tainted the outlook with red.

    As for the daily technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 43, showing a downward trajectory, indicating a considerable decrease in buying momentum compared to Tuesday's close at 52. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) printed a fresh red bar, suggesting an increasing bearish momentum.

    NZD/USD daily chart

    In terms of resistance for bulls to recover, the immediate challenge lies at the 0.6115 level (20-day SMA) now turned into resistance, and then at 0.6150. A decisive close above these levels will be crucial to negate the recent bearish momentum and might assist bulls in making a fresh attempt to reclaim control.

    On the downside, immediate support is near the crucial convergence of 100 and 200-day SMAs at 0.6070. A conclusive break below this level could affirm the negative outlook, triggering a deeper corrective slide towards 0.6050 and then the 0.6030 support levels.

  • 10.07.2024 08:51
    NZD/USD dives to 0.6070 as RBNZ communicates dovish interest-rate outlook
    • NZD/USD plunges to near 0.6070 as the RBNZ delivers a dovish interest rate guidance.
    • The RBNZ sees inflation returning to the 1%-3% range in the second quarter this year.
    • Investors await the US inflation data for fresh cues on the rate-cut timeframe.

    The NZD/USD pair slides vertically to near 0.6070 in Wednesday’s European session. The Kiwi asset faces an intense sell-off as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly delivered a dovish guidance on interest rates with keeping the Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 5.5%, as expected.

    The RBNZ opened doors for rate cuts amid easing consumer inflation expectations. The central bank favored for keeping the monetary policy framework restrictive but the extent of restrictiveness will be eased. Over the inflation outlook, the RBNZ sees price pressures returning in the desired range of 1%-3% in the second half of this year.

    Meanwhile, the market sentiment remains firm as investors expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting. S&P 500 futures have posted decent gains in European trading hours. 10-year US Treasury yields fall to near 4.29% as Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled in his semi-annual Congressional testimony on Tuesday that escalated inflation is not only risk for the central bank with an easing trend in job demand.

    Fed Powell said, "Labor market conditions have cooled considerably compared to where they were two years ago," and added that the US “is no longer an overheated economy,” Reuters reported.

    Easing US economic outlook is unfavorable for the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, struggles to extend recovery above 105.20.

    Going forward, investors will focus on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published on Thursday. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is estimates to have grown steadily on monthly as well as annual basis.

    New Zealand Dollar FAQs

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

    Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

     

  • 10.07.2024 02:15
    NZD/USD drops to near 0.6100 as RBNZ opts to keep OCR unchanged
    • NZD/USD depreciates as the RBNZ keeps the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% in its July meeting.
    • The New Zealand Dollar struggles after the release of soft Consumer Price Index data from close trading partner China.
    • The US Dollar appreciated after Fed’s Powell stated that a rate cut is not appropriate until the greater confidence of inflation slows down.

    NZD/USD loses ground, trading around 0.6100 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. This drop is driven by an interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). RBNZ has opted to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% in its July monetary policy meeting, marking the eighth consecutive meeting with no change.

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) faces pressure following the release of soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from China, a key trading partner. Chinese CPI rose 0.2% YoY in June, down from a 0.3% increase in May. Market expectations had projected a 0.4% increase for the period. Chinese CPI inflation fell by 0.2% month-over-month in June, compared to a 0.1% decline in May, which was below the anticipated 0.1% decrease.

    The US Dollar (USD) received support after the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the US Congress on Tuesday. Despite acknowledging improving inflation figures, the Fed remains firmly cautious. Powell answered questions before the Senate Banking Committee on the first day of his Congressional testimony on Tuesday.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated, "More good data would strengthen our confidence in inflation." Powell emphasized that a "policy rate cut is not appropriate until the Fed gains greater confidence that inflation is headed sustainably toward 2%." He also noted that "first-quarter data did not support the greater confidence in the inflation path that the Fed needs to cut rates."

    Traders are anticipating the second semi-annual testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, as well as speeches by the Fed’s Michelle Bowman and Austan Goolsbee. Additionally, attention will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, set to be released on Thursday.

    Economic Indicator

    RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.

    Read more.

    Last release: Wed Jul 10, 2024 02:00

    Frequency: Irregular

    Actual: 5.5%

    Consensus: 5.5%

    Previous: 5.5%

    Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference.

  • 09.07.2024 08:34
    NZD/USD: The pair is set to rise above 0.6180 – UOB Group

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to consolidate in a range of 0.6115/0.6145. Risk for further NZD strength; the levels to watch are 0.6180 and 0.6200, UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

    Levels to watch are 0.6180 and 0.6200

    24-HOUR VIEW: “Last Friday, NZD rose to a high of 0.6149. Yesterday, we indicated that “there is room for NZD to rise, even though the next resistance level at 0.6180 is likely out of reach for now.” NZD then popped briefly to 0.6171, pulling back to close at 0.6127 (-0.31%). NZD appears to have moved into a consolidation phase. Today, we expect NZD to trade between 0.6115 and 0.6145.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 0.6105), we held the view that the recovery in NZD has potential to extend to 0.6150. After NZD rose, we highlighted yesterday (08 Jul, spot at 0.6145) that “the risk is for further NZD strength, and the levels to watch are 0.6180 and 0.6200.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, should NZD break below 0.6100 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday), it would mean that it is not strengthening further.”

  • 09.07.2024 07:18
    NZD/USD falls toward 0.6100 as investors adopt caution ahead of RBNZ upcoming decision
    • NZD/USD depreciates as traders adopt caution ahead of RBNZ interest rate decision on Wednesday.
    • NZIER shadow board members recommend that the RBNZ maintain the OCR at 5.50%.
    • The decline in the Treasury yields puts pressure on the US Dollar.

    NZD/USD continues to lose ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.6120 during the early European hours on Tuesday. This decline could be attributed to the traders’ caution ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is anticipated to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.50% during its July meeting on Wednesday, despite indications of a slowing economy in New Zealand. Traders will likely monitor the Monetary Policy Statement for further insights.

    The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) shadow board members recommend that the central bank keep the OCR unchanged at the upcoming Monetary Policy meeting. The current weaker growth, slack labor market, and ongoing easing of annual CPI inflation indicate that previous cash rate increases are successfully reducing inflationary pressures in the New Zealand economy.

    On the USD’s front, Treasury yields face challenges due to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates in September, potentially capping the upside for the US Dollar. The CME's FedWatch Tool shows that rate markets price in a 76.2% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 65.5% just a week ago.

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may deliver "The Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report" to the US Congress on Tuesday. Powell could provide a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy, with his prepared remarks being published ahead of his appearance on Capitol Hill.

    Economic Indicator

    RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.

    Read more.

    Next release: Wed Jul 10, 2024 02:00

    Frequency: Irregular

    Consensus: 5.5%

    Previous: 5.5%

    Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference.

     

  • 09.07.2024 01:17
    NZD/USD gains ground above 0.6100, eyes on Fed Powell’s testimony
    • NZD/USD holds positive ground near 0.6130 in Tuesday’s early Asian session. 
    • The New Zealand central bank is expected to keep policy unchanged at its July meeting on Wednesday. 
    • Rising Fed rate cut bets are likely to weigh on the US Dollar. 

    The NZD/USD pair trades on a stronger note around 0.6130 on Tuesday during the early Asian trading hours. The US Dollar (USD) consolidates as traders await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Jerome Powell’s testimony on Tuesday ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday. 

    The RBNZ is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% at its July meeting on Wednesday, despite signs of weaker economic activity in New Zealand. Traders will take more cues from the Monetary Policy Statement. A hawkish stance by the RBNZ might support the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the near term. 

    On the other hand, the growing speculation that the US Fed will cut the interest rate sooner than expected this year exerts some selling pressure on the Greenback. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in nearly 76% odds of Fed rate cuts in September, up from 64% recorded a week ago. 

    On the US docket, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June might offer some hints about the inflation trajectory in the US. The US CPI inflation is forecast to drop to 3.1% YoY in June from 3.3% in May, while core inflation is projected to remain steady at 3.4% YoY in the same reported period. Any signs of softer inflation in the US might drag the USD lower and create a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

    New Zealand Dollar FAQs

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

    Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

     

  • 08.07.2024 22:28
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bears tests critical support of 20-day SMA
    • NZD/USD saw slight losses but maintained a position above the crucial 20-day SMA support around 0.6120.
    • The technical outlook remains positive, despite Monday's bearish activity.
    • Bears are testing the 20-day SMA strength.

    On Monday, the NZD/USD struggled, losing 0.30% to 0.6125, erasing its daily gains. Despite this, the pair successfully defended its position above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support level at 0.6120, a feat securely achieved in the past week.

    As for the daily technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) now stands at 53, showing a downward movement, indicating that the bullish momentum took a slight hit. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) keeps on printing decreasing red bars, noting the fading bearish strength.

    NZD/USD daily chart

    From the perspective of resistances, the 0.6170 level is the immediate challenge, which is trailed closely by the significant 0.6200 mark. A firm break above these levels can be viewed as a full confirmation of the recent bullish momentum, taking the pair deeper into bullish territory.

    Ahead lies immediate support near the 20-day SMA at 0.6120, with stronger support at the decisive 0.6070 mark. If the sellers manage to lower the price below these supports, it will indicate a developing selling pressure that could lead to a deeper corrective decline.

  • 08.07.2024 08:55
    NZD/USD: The pair trades towards 0.6180 – UOB Group

    Room for NZD to rise further. The resistance level at 0.6180 is likely out of reach for now, with a chance to reach 0.6200, analysts at UOB Group note.

    A slight chance to rise to 0.6200

    24-HOUR VIEW: “We highlighted last Friday that ‘there is a chance for NZD to retest the 0.6130 level.’ We also highlighted that ‘the major resistance level at 0.6150 is unlikely to come into view.’ NZD rose more than expected, reaching a high of 0.6149 before closing at 0.6146 (+0.47%). While the advance is approaching overbought levels, there is room for NZD to rise, even though the next resistance level at 0.6180 is likely out of reach for now. To keep the momentum going, NZD must not break below 0.6115, with minor support at 0.6130.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our latest narrative was from last Thursday (04 Jul, spot at 0.6105), wherein ‘the recent weakness has stabilised, and the current price movements are likely part of a recovery that has potential to extend to 0.6150.’ We pointed out that ‘a breach of 0.6070 would indicate that NZD is not recovering further.’ Last Friday, NZD rose to a high of 0.6149. Upward momentum has increased further, and the risk is for further NZD strength. The levels to watch are 0.6180 and 0.6200. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 0.6100 from 0.6070.”

  • 08.07.2024 04:53
    NZD/USD posts fresh three-week high near 0.6150 in countdown to RBNZ policy
    • NZD/USD prints a fresh three-week high amid weak US Dollar and uncertainty ahead of RBNZ policy.
    • The US Dollar falls on the backfoot due to moderating US labor market conditions.
    • Investors expect that the RBNZ will hold its OCR at 5.5%.

    The NZD/USD pair refreshes a three-week high near 0.6150 in Monday’s Asian session. The Kiwi pair extends its winning streak for the fifth trading session as a debate over the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting has heated up after the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June pointed to normalization of labor market strength.

    According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds Futures pricing data shows that the probability of rate cuts in September has improved to 75.8% from 64% recorded a week ago. The data also shows that the Fed will deliver subsequent rate cuts in the November or December meeting.

    The data from the NFP report showed that the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly rose to 4.1% from the estimates and the prior release of 4.0%. Average Hourly Earnings, a measure to wage growth momentum, decelerated expectedly on both monthly and an annual basis. Fresh hiring came in higher at 206K from estimates of 190K but lower than May’s reading of 218K.

    Growing speculation about Fed rate cuts has weighed heavily on the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to three-week low near 104.85. 10-year US Treasury yields edge higher in Monday’s trading hours but are close to weekly low around 4.29%.

    This week, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) will be in the spotlight due to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. The RBNZ is widely anticipated to leave its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the commentary on the interest rate outlook. Market participants see the RBNZ keeping its key rates steady for the entire year.

    Economic Indicator

    RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.

    Read more.

    Next release: Wed Jul 10, 2024 02:00

    Frequency: Irregular

    Consensus: 5.5%

    Previous: 5.5%

    Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by Governor Adrian Orr’s press conference.

     

  • 05.07.2024 21:43
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls gaining control, closes week above critical resistance
    • NZD/USD edged higher and closed above the 20 SMA support around 0.6120.
    • With the technical outlook now showing signs of bullishness, the pair tests resistance around the 0.6150 level.

    On Friday, the NZD/USD saw gains of 0.40% to 0.6050, as it managed to close above the 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

    As for the daily technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), now at 57, indicates an increase in buying momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to register decreasing red bars which could be seen as fading bearish strength.

    NZD/USD daily chart

    On the upside, resistance is at the 0.6150- 0.6170 zone, and above at the 0.6200 level. A firm break above these levels could be viewed as a full confirmation of the recent bearish dominance, driving the pair into bullish territory.

    On the downside has immediate support near the 20-day SMA at 0.6120, and below at the crucial 0.6070 mark. If the sellers manage to drive the price lower, it will indicate strengthening selling pressure and the possibility of a deeper downward correction.

  • 05.07.2024 10:57
    NZD/USD Price Analysis: On the cusp of Falling Channel breakout
    • NZD/USD strengthens at the US Dollar’s cost.
    • Investors await the US NFP that will influence Fed rate-cut bets.
    • The RBNZ is expected to keep its OCR unchanged at 5.5%.

    The NZD/USD pair rises above the round-level resistance of 0.6100 in Friday’s European session. The Kiwi asset extends its winning spree for the fourth trading session on Friday. The major strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) has faced severe pressure due to weak United States (US) ISM Services PMI and the ADP Employment Change for June, which boosts expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting.

    Next major trigger that will influence market speculation for Fed rate cuts in September will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Economists expect that US employers hired 190K new workers, which were lower than 272K payrolls added in May. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4%.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, has dropped to near 105.00.

    On the Kiwi front, investors await the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to keep its Official Cash Rate steady at 5.5%. Therefore, investors majorly focus on the interest rate outlook.

    NZD/USD is on the cusp of delivering a breakout of the Falling Channel formation on a four-hour timeframe. A breakout in the above-mentioned chart formation results in a bullish reversal.

    A bull cross, represented by 20-and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 0.6100, suggests that the overall trend has become bullish.

    The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting that momentum has been shifts on the upside.

    Fresh upside would appear if the asset breaks above July 3 high at 0.6130 for targets near May 28 high around 0.6170 and June 12 high of 0.6222.

    However, a breakdown below April 4 high around 0.6050 would expose the asset to the psychological support of 0.6000.

    NZD/USD four-hour chart

    New Zealand Dollar FAQs

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

    Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

     

  • 05.07.2024 08:53
    NZD/USD: The major resistance is at 0.6150 – UOB Group

    Chance for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to retest the 0.6130 level; the major resistance at 0.6150 is unlikely to come into view. With that said, recovery in NZD could extend to 0.6150, UOB Group analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.  

    Recovery in NZD may extend to 0.6150

    24-HOUR VIEW: “NZD surged to a high of 0.6129 on Wednesday. Yesterday (Thursday), we indicated that ‘there is a chance for NZD to retest the 0.6130 level, even though a sustained break above this level appears unlikely.’ Our view did not turn out, as NZD traded between 0.6101 and 0.6122. Today, we continue to hold the view that there is a chance for NZD to retest 0.6130. The major resistance at 0.6150 is unlikely to come into view. Support is at 0.6100 and 0.6090.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (04 Jul, spot at 0.6105). As indicated, the recent weakness has stabilised, and the current price movements are likely part of a recovery that has potential to extend to 0.6150. A breach of 0.6070 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that NZD is not recovering further.”

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