CFD Trading Rate New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar (NZDUSD)

• NZD/USD holds around 0.5810, posting a neutral session after reversing earlier losses.
• Despite bulls fighting back, indicators seem to have stalled in positive territory, limiting further upside potential.

NZD/USD traded near the 0.5810 area on Wednesday ahead of the Asian session, marking a day of choppy price action. The pair initially saw mild losses but managed to stabilize, as bulls stepped in to defend recent gains.

Technical indicators show a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned near the overbought zone but is declining sharply, indicating a slowdown in buying momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is still printing rising green bars, suggesting the broader trend remains bullish despite some hesitation.

On the downside, immediate support is found at 0.5775, aligning with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break below this level could expose further weakness toward 0.5730. To the upside, resistance sits near 0.5850, followed by a key hurdle at 0.5900.

NZD/USD daily chart

NZD/USD retraced some of this week’s gains on USD strength, BBH's FX analysts report.

Long-term fundamental equilibrium for NZD/USD is at 0.6700

"New Zealand’s annual current account deficit narrowed to -6.2% of GDP in Q4 from -6.5% in Q3. The current account deficit remains large by historical standards, suggesting NZD needs to keep trading at a deep discount to fundamental equilibrium to attract foreign investments and finance this deficit. We estimate long-term fundamental equilibrium for NZD/USD at around 0.6700."

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.5790 and 0.5840. In the longer run, rapid buildup in momentum continues to suggest NZD strength; the level to watch is 0.5870, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.  

The level to watch is 0.5870

24-HOUR VIEW: "On Monday, NZD surged to a high of 0.5826. Yesterday (Tuesday), when NZD was at 0.5820, we indicated that 'While further NZD strength is not ruled out, any advance is likely part of a higher 0.5785/0.5845 range. In other words, NZD is unlikely to break clearly above 0.5845 today.' NZD then traded in a narrower range than expected (0.5798/0.5831), closing marginally lower by 0.02% at 0.5821. We continue to expect range trading today, probably between 0.5790 and 0.5840." 

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (18 Mar, spot at 0.5820). As highlighted, the recent 'rapid buildup in momentum continues to suggest NZD strength, and the level to watch on the upside is 0.5870.' We will continue to hold the same view as long as the ‘strong support’ at 0.5755 (level was at 0.5740 yesterday) is intact."

• NZD/USD attracts some sellers amid a modest USD bounce from a multi-month low.
• Fed rate cut bets should cap any meaningful USD gains and lend support to the pair.
• Traders might also opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting.

The NZD/USD pair meets with some supply on Wednesday and moves away from the year-to-date (YTD) top, around the 0.5830 region touched the previous day. The selling bias picks up pace during the early European session and drags spot prices below the 0.5800 mark in the last hour.

The US Dollar (USD) gains some positive traction and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to a five-month low, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair. The intraday USD uptick could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the key central bank event risk – the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting. Adding to this, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further benefits the safe-haven buck and contributes to driving flows away from the perceived riskier Kiwi.

Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Fed would lower borrowing costs several times this year amid concerns over a tariff-driven US economic slowdown. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the Fed's updated economic projections, which include the so-called do pot. Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks would be scrutinized for cues about the future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will influence the USD price dynamics and help in determining the near-term trajectory for the NZD/USD pair. 

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the currency pair's recent move-up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has run its course and positioning for deeper losses. Even from a technical perspective, this week's sustained breakout above the 0.5760 strong horizontal barrier favors bullish traders and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying. This, in turn, should help limit the downside for the NZD/USD pair. 

• NZD/USD loses ground as Westpac Consumer Survey indicates weakening consumer confidence in New Zealand.
• Westpac New Zealand reported a decline in its confidence index, falling to 89.2 in Q1 from 97.5 in the prior quarter.
• The US Dollar remains firm as traders adopt caution ahead of the Fed interest rate decision due on Wednesday.

NZD/USD remains subdued for the second consecutive day, hovering around 0.5810 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair faces downward pressure following the release of New Zealand’s Q1 2025 Westpac Consumer Survey, which indicated weakening consumer confidence.

Westpac New Zealand reported that its confidence index dropped to 89.2 in Q1 from 97.5 in the previous period, the lowest level since Q2 2024. The decline reflects mounting trade tensions, persistent cost-of-living pressures, and financial market volatility.

However, the NZD/USD pair may find support from market optimism ahead of New Zealand’s quarterly GDP data release on Thursday. Analysts expect a modest 0.4% rebound in Q4, following two consecutive quarters of contraction.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, underpinned by stable Treasury yields as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day. Markets widely anticipate the Fed will hold rates steady amid ongoing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 103.30, while US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields stand at 4.04% and 4.29%, respectively. However, the Greenback faces pressure from weak US economic data and renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump, adding to market uncertainty.

Traders are closely monitoring the Fed’s updated economic projections for insights into the future path of US interest rates. Any hawkish signals could further strengthen the USD against its counterparts.

• NZD/USD holds onto gains near 0.5820 amid strength in the New Zealand Dollar.
• China’s monetary stimulus package has uplifted the NZD’s appeal.
• The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates in their current range on Wednesday.

The NZD/USD pair holds significant Monday’s gains near 0.5820 in European trading hours on Tuesday. The Kiwi pair exhibits strength as the appeal of the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has strengthened after China announced fresh monetary stimulus to boost consumption to uplift economic growth.

On Sunday, the Chinese ministry announced a comprehensive “special action plan” to ramp up economic growth. The ministry reported that the plan focuses on increasing residents’ incomes, reducing financial burdens, and enhancing the consumption environment, Reuters report.

Signs of acceleration in China’s economic growth bodes well for the New Zealand Dollar, knowing that the New Zealand (NZ) economy depends heavily on exports to China.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) drops to near the five-month low ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50% as officials have been guiding that monetary policy adjustments are unfavorable amid uncertainty over the United States (US) economic outlook under the leadership of President Donald Trump.

NZD/USD breaks strongly above the key resistance of 0.5800 plotted from the January 24 high. The asset holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.5720, suggesting that the near-term trend is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI holds above that level.

More upside would appear if the asset breaks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.5850 plotted from the September 30 high to February 3 low towards the round-level resistance of 0.5900 and the November 29 high of 0.5930.

On the flip side, The Kiwi pair could decline to near round-level supports of 0.5400 and 0.5300 if it breaks below the 13-year low of 0.5470.

NZD/USD daily chart

Further New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strength vs US Dollar (USD) is not ruled out; any further advance is likely part of a higher 0.5785/0.5845 range. In the longer run, rapid buildup in momentum continues to suggest NZD strength; the level to watch is 0.5870, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 

The level to watch is 0.5870

24-HOUR VIEW: "NZD rose to a high of 0.5755 last Friday. Yesterday, Monday, we noted that 'The increase in momentum suggests there is potential for NZD to continue to advance.' We also noted that 'it is unclear for now whether NZD can break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone.' We did not quite expect the rapid upward acceleration as NZD soared above the resistance zone and reached 0.5826. While further NZD strength is not ruled out, any advance is likely part of a higher 0.5785/0.5845 range. In other words, NZD is unlikely to break clearly above 0.5845 today." 

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (17 Mar), when NZD was at 0.5750, we indicated that 'upward momentum is building again, but NZD must break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone before a sustained rise is likely.' We did not expect the sudden jump that sent NZD soaring to a high of 0.5826. The rapid buildup in momentum continues to suggest NZD strength. The level to watch on the upside is 0.5870. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 0.5740 from 0.5695."

• NZD/USD weakens as the US Dollar rebounds amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• The US has reaffirmed its commitment to striking Yemen’s Houthis until they halt attacks on Red Sea shipping.
• The New Zealand Dollar found support from growing optimism about China’s economic outlook.

NZD/USD loses ground after gaining in the previous two sessions, trading around 0.5810 during Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) recovers amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

The US has reaffirmed its commitment to striking Yemen’s Houthis until they cease attacks on Red Sea shipping, adding to market uncertainty. On Monday, US President Donald Trump warned that he would hold Iran accountable for any Houthi-led attacks in Yemen. Since Trump’s return to office, his administration has expanded the largest US military operation in the Middle East.

However, the US Dollar faced renewed pressure as weak economic data and Trump’s tariff threats fueled investor uncertainty. February’s US Retail Sales rose less than expected, raising concerns over a potential slowdown in consumer spending. Markets widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current policy stance when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained support from growing optimism about China’s economic outlook. This followed strong retail sales data and new Chinese measures aimed at boosting consumer spending. Given China and New Zealand are close trade partners, any change in the Chinese economy could impact the antipodean markets.

However, domestic data painted a mixed picture. On Monday, New Zealand’s Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) fell to 49.1 in February from 50.4 in January, signaling a return to contraction in the services sector. This uneven recovery from recession reinforces expectations for further rate cuts, aligning with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) signal of additional easing last month. Traders now await New Zealand’s Q4 GDP data later this week, which is expected to show a modest rebound in economic activity.

• NZD/USD was seen trading around the 0.5825 zone ahead of the Asian session, extending its bullish momentum.
• The pair surged past the 20-day SMA, though traders should monitor 0.5700, where a bearish crossover between the 20 and 100-day SMAs could develop.
• Immediate resistance stands near 0.5850, while initial support lies around 0.5750, with a critical level at 0.5700.

NZD/USD continued its strong performance on Monday ahead of the Asian session, gaining traction and trading near the 0.5825 area. Bulls propelled the pair higher, breaching the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and reinforcing the bullish outlook. However, market participants should remain cautious as a potential bearish crossover between the 20 and 100-day SMAs around 0.5700 could threaten the rally.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen sharply into near-overbought territory, currently hovering around 68, suggesting strong bullish momentum. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing rising green bars, signaling increasing buyer strength. While the technical picture remains favorable for further gains, traders should watch for potential signs of exhaustion at current levels.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 0.5850, with a breakout above this level opening the door to 0.5900. Meanwhile, initial support lies at 0.5750, followed by a crucial floor at 0.5700, where a bearish SMA crossover could add downward pressure. If the pair slips below this threshold, the outlook could shift in favor of the bears.

NZD/USD daily chart

Increase in momentum suggests potential for NZD to continue to advance; it is unclear whether it can break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone. In the longer run, upward momentum is building again; NZD must break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone before a sustained rise is likely, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 

NZD to continue to advance

24-HOUR VIEW: "Our expectation for NZD to trade in a range last Friday was incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, NZD soared to a high of 0.5755, closing on a strong note at 0.5750 (+0.93%). The increase in momentum suggests there is potential for NZD to continue to advance. However, it is unclear for now whether NZD break and remain above the 0.6765/0.5775 resistance zone. To sustain the momentum, NZD must remain above 0.5720 (minor support is at 0.5735)." 

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (14 Mar), when NZD was at 0.5700, we indicated that 'the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, most likely between 0.5640 and 0.5765.' We did not expect the subsequent strong advance in NZD that reached 0.5755. Upward momentum is building again, but NZD must break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone before a sustained rise is likely. The likelihood of NZD breaking clearly above the resistance zone will remain intact as long as 0.5695 is not breached in the next few days."

• NZD/USD attracts buyers for the second straight day and climbs to a multi-week top.
• Fed rate cut bets keep the USD depressed near a multi-month low and lend support.
• A positive risk tone also benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi and contributes to the move-up. 

The NZD/USD pair gains positive traction for the second straight day on Monday and climbs to a three-week high, around the 0.5775 region during the first half of the European session. Spot prices now seem to have confirmed a breakout through a one-week-old range and could appreciate further amid the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD).

In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near a multi-month trough amid worries about a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economic activity. Apart from this, softer US inflation figures released last week and signs of a cooling labor market might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates several times this year. This, in turn, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. 

Meanwhile, the global risk sentiment gets a minor boost in reaction to the latest stimulus measures announced by China over the weekend. This is seen as another factor undermining the safe-haven buck and benefiting antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi. Furthermore, the NZD/USD pair's intraday positive move could further be attributed to some technical buying above the 0.5750 horizontal resistance, which might have set the stage for further near-term appreciation. 

However, it remains to be seen if bulls can capitalize on the move or opt to move to the sidelines ahead of this week's key central bank event risk – the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. This will play a key role in influencing the USD demand and provide a fresh directional impetus to the NZD/USD pair. In the meantime, traders on Monday will take cues from the release of the US Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index. 

• NZD/USD strengthens after the release of key economic data from China on Monday. 
• China’s Retail Sales grew 4.0% YoY in January-February, improving from December’s 3.7% rise. 
• The US Dollar remains under pressure as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined in March.

NZD/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5760 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair strengthens following the release of China’s economic data, with Retail Sales increasing by 4.0% year-over-year in January-February, up from December’s 3.7% growth.

Additionally, industrial production expanded by 5.9% YoY, surpassing the 5.3% forecast but slightly below the previous 6.2% reading. Positive economic indicators from China tend to support the NZD, given China’s role as a key trading partner for New Zealand.

After the release of China’s high-impact February activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shared its economic outlook during a press conference on Monday. While noting the economy’s resilience, the NBS highlighted increasing external challenges and a more complex global environment.

Furthermore, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained support after China introduced a special action plan over the weekend to stimulate consumption. The initiative includes wage increases, measures to boost household spending, and efforts to stabilize stock and real estate markets, improving overall market sentiment in the region.

On the domestic front, New Zealand’s Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) declined to 49.1 in February from 50.4 in January, indicating a return to contraction in the services sector.

The NZD/USD pair also advanced as the US Dollar (USD) weakened ahead of the upcoming US Retail Sales data release in the North American session. The Greenback faced pressure after the University of Michigan (UoM) reported a drop in its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for March on Friday, falling to 57.9—its lowest level since November 2022—from 64.7 previously. This figure also missed the consensus estimate of 63.1.