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USD/MXN retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around 20.00 during Wednesday’s European hours. This downside of the pair is attributed to the subdued US Dollar (USD) amid decreasing Treasury yields.
Traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released later in the North American hours. This upcoming US inflation report may offer fresh cues regarding the potential magnitude of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut in September. Moreover, the recent US labor market report has cast doubt on the possibility of an aggressive Fed interest rate cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are fully anticipating at least a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September meeting. The likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut has slightly decreased to 31.0%, down from 38.0% a week ago.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is under downward pressure due to concerns over judicial reforms and dovish expectations for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). Investor sentiment has been weakened by a judicial reform bill passed by Mexico's lower house on September 4, which proposes electing judges rather than appointing them.
Financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Julius Baer have raised concerns that this reform could be a threat to judicial independence and foreign investment. Both have issued warnings about the potential for credit downgrades, reflecting heightened risks to Mexico's economic stability.
On Monday, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed that Mexican inflation was weaker than anticipated, boosting the likelihood that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) will cut interest rates at its September meeting.
Kimberley Sperrfechter, an analyst at Capital Economics, noted that the latest inflation data and the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week "indicate that Banxico is on track to lower its policy rate by another 25 basis points in September."
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The USD/MXN pair halts its four-day losing streak, trading around 18.70 during the European session on Monday. The daily chart analysis shows that the pair is consolidating below an ascending channel pattern, indicating a potential weakening of the bullish bias.
Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 50 level, suggesting a bullish momentum. Further movement may offer a clear directional trend.
Moreover, the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is higher than the 50-day EMA, indicating a bullish signal for the USD/MXN pair. This suggests that the short-term price trend is stronger than the long-term trend, which could imply upward momentum in the asset's price.
On the upside, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 18.81 level serves as an immediate barrier, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around the 19.00 level.
A return to the ascending channel would reinforce the bullish bias, potentially leading the USD/MXN pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 20.06, the highest level since October 2022, which was reached on August 5.
In terms of support, the 50-day EMA at 18.35 appears as a key support level. A break below this level could initiate the emergence of the bearish bias and push the USD/MXN pair to navigate the area around throwback support at the 17.60 level.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
USD/MXN trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day around 18.60 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The further downside of the pair is backed by the expectation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut at least a 25 basis point (bps) in September. Investors will monitor the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August, Building Permits, and Housing Starts, which are due later on Friday. Also, the Fed's Austan Goolsbee is set to speak.
The upbeat US economic data on Thursday, including Initial Jobless Claims and Retail Sales, eased fears about a potential recession in the United States. However, traders are still expecting the Fed to cut its interest rate in September, which weighs on the Greenback in the near term. The market is now fully priced for a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in September and nearly 20% priced for a 50 bps cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
The upside of the Mexican Peso occurred despite a surprise rate cut by Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) last week, lowering interest rates by 25 bps from 11% to 10.75%. Mexican economist Alexis Milo, former chief economist at HSBC México, noted, “The markets in the US are having their best day in more than a year, and that is allowing the peso to recover. This effect prevailed over the depreciation that we would have expected with a rate cut. ”
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
USD/MXN extends its losses from the previous session, trading around 18.80 during Thursday’s European hours. This decline of the USD/MXN could be attributed to the increasing expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
The US Dollar (USD) remains tepid ahead of the release of US Initial Jobless Claims and Retail Sales data scheduled for Thursday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against other six major peers, received support from the improved Treasury yields. The DXY trades around 102.60 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 3.95% and 3.82%, respectively, at the time of writing.
The moderate increase in the annual US Consumer Price Index (CPI) has sparked debate about the extent of the Fed’s potential rate cut in September. Traders are favoring a more modest 25 basis point reduction, with a 60% probability, while a 50 basis point cut is still on the table. According to CME FedWatch, there is a 36% chance of the larger cut occurring in September.
In Mexico, last week’s data showed that the INEGI Consumer Confidence index fell to 46.9 in July, down from 47.5 in June, which has contributed to a dovish outlook from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). Additionally, Banxico Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja endorsed the recent interest rate cut to 10.75%. Although headline inflation is at 5.57%, she defended the rate reduction by highlighting the decline in core prices over the past 18 months.
Traders are expected to closely monitor the Retail Sales data for June, which will be released on Tuesday. Later in the week, attention will turn to the first-half-month Inflation data and the Banxico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, both scheduled for release on Thursday.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
USD/MXN extends its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 18.90 during the late Asian hours on Friday. This decline comes despite the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) unexpected decision to cut the benchmark rate to 10.75% from 11.00% at Thursday’s meeting.
Banxico hinted at possible further rate adjustments, citing ongoing inflationary risks. The 12-Month Inflation Rate rose to 5.57% in July, up from 4.98% previously, and matching market estimates. This is the highest reading since May 2023.
Meanwhile, Core Inflation increased by 0.32%, slightly above the forecast of a 0.29% rise. Headline Inflation also rose by 1.05% in July, the largest increase in nearly three years, and slightly above the estimated 1.02% advance.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edging lower to near 103.20. The decline in US Treasury yields is exerting additional pressure on the Greenback, with yields standing at 4.01% and 3.97%, respectively, at the time of writing.
The US Dollar faces challenges amid increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may implement a quarter-basis point rate cut in September. Traders evaluate mixed signals from the US economy, trying to determine whether it will experience a soft landing or slip into a recession.
The downside of the Greenback could be limited due to rising safe-haven flows amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Israeli forces intensified their airstrikes on the Gaza Strip, resulting in at least 40 casualties on Thursday, according to Palestinian medics.
This escalation has further intensified the conflict between Israel and Hamas-led militants, as Israel prepares for the possibility of a broader regional conflict following the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The USD/MXN pair trades in a limited range above the crucial support of 19.00 in Thursday’s European session. The asset consolidates from the last three trading sessions despite the US Dollar (USD) exhibiting sheer volatility.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, corrects to near 103.00 on firm speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pivot to policy-normalization aggressively. 10-year US Treasury yields tumble to near 3.90%.
Meanwhile, investors await the United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending August 2, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Investors will keenly focus on the weekly jobless claims as it is the only data available that will provide some cues about the current status of the labor market.
On the Mexican Peso front, the Mexican currency will be influenced by the spectre of controversial reforms to Mexico's constitution set for votes next month, including a potential judicial overhaul that would subject judges to popular vote, Reuters reported.
USD/MXN trades in a Rising Channel formation on a daily timeframe in which each pullback is considered as buying opportunity by market participants. The asset appears to be in a strong uptrend as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $28.70 slopes higher.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 60.00-80.00 range, suggesting a strong upside momentum.
Fresh upside would appear if the asset breaks above August 6 high of 19.61, which will drive the asset towards fresh annual high near $20, followed by almost two-year high of 20.50.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
USD/MXN trades around 19.30 during the early European hours on Wednesday after breaking its four-day winning streak. The Mexican Peso (MXN) gains ground due to possible improved risk appetite. However, the downside of the USD/MXN pair could be limited as US Dollar (USD) advances amid rising Treasury yields.
Mexico’s Auto Exports fell by 1.6% year-on-year to 271,496 units in July, breaking a streak of twenty consecutive months of growth. This decline highlights the ongoing economic slowdown, which, along with lower inflation readings, might prompt the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to consider lowering borrowing costs at its upcoming meeting. Traders will likely observe the inflation data before the policy decision on Thursday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against its six major peers, trades around 103.20 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.00% and 3.90%, respectively, at the time of writing.
However, the upside of the USD/MXN could be retrained due to increasing odds of a relatively higher rate cut starting in September after the weaker US labor data for July raised the fear of a looming US recession. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now a 67.5% probability of a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, up from 13.2% a week earlier.
According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly noted on Monday that “risks to the Fed's mandates are becoming more balanced and that there is openness to the possibility of cutting rates in upcoming meetings.” Additionally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that the central bank is prepared to act if economic or financial conditions worsen.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
USD/MXN trades around 19.30 during the early European session on Tuesday, following a retreat from its highest level of 20.23 since September 2022, reached on Monday. The USD/MXN pair faced challenges due to increased risk aversion. Recent downbeat labor market data from the United States (US) has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may be falling behind in addressing an economic downturn.
Growth worries in the United States have triggered a broad selloff in financial markets, which has negatively impacted emerging market currencies such as the Mexican Peso. However, the upside of the USD/MXN pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) could struggle due to the expectation of a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 74.5% probability of this rate cut at the September meeting, up sharply from the 11.4% chance reported just a week ago.
According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly expressed increased confidence on Monday that US inflation is moving towards the Fed's 2% target. Daly noted that “risks to the Fed's mandates are becoming more balanced and that there is openness to the possibility of cutting rates in upcoming meetings.”
The Mexican Peso (MXN) faces challenges as concerns about a slowing economy raise speculation about a potential dovish shift from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by only 0.2% in the second quarter ending in June, down from the 0.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Traders are expected to focus on the July Auto Exports data due on Tuesday, with further attention turning to inflation data and Banxico’s monetary policy decision on Thursday.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
USD/MXN extends its gains for the second session, trading around 18.90 during the European hours on Friday. The analysis of the daily chart indicates the bullish bias as the pair is moving higher within an ascending channel.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, is positioned at the 70 level, indicating that the USD/MXN pair is overbought. This suggests that a correction could be imminent.
On the upside, the USD/MXN pair tests a four-month high of 18.99 recorded on June 12. A breakthrough above this level could reinforce the bullish bias to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel near the level of 19.20.
In terms of support, the lower boundary of the ascending channel around the level of 18.70 could act as immediate support. Next support appears at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 18.59. A break below this level could weaken the bullish sentiment and lead the USD/MXN pair to navigate the area around throwback support at the level of 17.60.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
USD/MXN retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 18.70 during the early European hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) receives support from a correction in Treasury yields, underpinning the USD/MXN pair.
However, this upside of the USD/MXN pair could be limited due to the dovish sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy trajectory. Fed decided to keep rates unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range at its July meeting on Wednesday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six other major currencies, trades around 104.10 with 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.28% and 4.05%, respectively, at the time of writing.
During a press conference post-interest rate decision, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut in September is "on the table," while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did not want to commit to anything in the statement. Powell added that the central bank will closely monitor the labor market and remain vigilant for signs of a potential sharp downturn, per Reuters.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) weakened as concerns over a slowing economy fueled speculation about a more dovish stance from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). Recent data showed that Mexico's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by just 0.2% in the second quarter ending in June, down from the 0.3% growth recorded in the previous quarter.
Additionally, the Fiscal Balance showed a deficit of 166.74 billion Pesos in June, a decrease from the previous deficit of 174.89 billion Pesos.
Traders anticipate further direction from upcoming US economic data, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and weekly Initial Jobless Claims, both set to be released later on Thursday. Meanwhile, Mexico's Jobless Rate data will be announced on Friday.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The US Dollar is practically flat on the daily chart, consolidating gains following a five-day rally. Bulls met resistance at the 18.75 area on Monday and the pair has remained trading sideways on Tuesday, with downside attempts limited above 18.60 so far.
A somewhat brighter market sentiment is weighing on the safe-haven US Dollar and hopes of some dovish hint after the Fed meeting are adding pressure on the USD.
The US labour market is showing signs of exhaustion, unemployment increased in June, and inflation is finally drawing close to the 2% level. Data released last week revealed that the PCE Prices Index remained at unchanged at a 2.5% yearly rate in June.
These figures have boosted expectations that the Bank might start cutting rates in September, instead of December as previous Fed projections suggested.
In this context, Wednesday’s Fed monetary policy decision will be closely watched. The bank will highly likely leave rates unchanged, but any signal towards earlier rate cuts is likely to weigh on the USD.
From a technical perspective, the pair is consolidating gains ahead of the meeting. The broader bias remains bullish, with resistances at 18.80 and 19.00. Supports are 18.60 and 18.30.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
USD/MXN continues to gain ground for the fifth successive session, trading around 18.50 during the European hours on Monday. The USD/MXN pair gained ground as the US Dollar has recovered its intraday losses. However, the downside in the US Treasury yields may weaken the Greenback, limiting the upside of the pair.
US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against the six other major currencies, holds minor gains around the level of 104.40 with yields on US Treasury bonds standing at 4.37% and 4.17%, respectively, at the time of writing.
Additionally, signs of cooling inflation and easing labor market conditions in the United States (US) have fueled expectations of three rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve (Fed), starting in September. This has put pressure on the US Dollar.
On Friday, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index indicated a modest rise in inflation for June and provided further signs of easing price pressures. The US PCE Price Index rose by 2.5% year-over-year in June, down slightly from 2.6% in May, meeting market expectations. The PCE Price Index increased by 0.1% month-over-month after being unchanged in May.
In Mexico, mid-month inflation data for July could dissuade the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) from easing policy due to the risks of second-round effects, which Goldman Sachs economists suggest could extend to core inflation components.
Additionally, analysts at Citi Research now estimate that annual inflation will end at 4.30%, up from the previous forecast of 4.20%, with core inflation expected to finish 2024 at 4.0%. Mexico's economic growth is projected to slow, with an anticipated growth rate of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in the previous poll.
The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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