CFD Trading Rate US Dollar vs Singapore Dollar (USDSGD)

Today, the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s decision to keep all three parameters of the SGD NEER policy band unchanged was largely expected, DBS’ FX analyst Philip Wee notes.

USD/SGD to trade lower on a lower DXY range

“The negative output gap is expected to close in 2H24 from this year’s GDP growth coming around the upper end of the official 2-3% forecast range. Advance GDP growth expanded at a better-than-expected 4.1% YoY in 3Q24 vs. the consensus for a rise to 3.8% from 2.8% in 2Q24.”

“The MAS forecasted core inflation to decline from 2.3% in July-August to 2% by the end of 2024 before entering a 1.5-2.5% range in 2025. USD/SGD should continue to take its cue from the currencies of its major trading partners.”

“Our view remains that USD/SGD will trade lower in a 1.25-1.30 range on a lower DXY range of 95-100 driven by another 200 bps of Fed cuts to 3% from now to next year.”

Recent rally in USD/SGD shows tentative signs of moderation. Pair was last at 1.3029 levels, OCBC’s FX strategist Christopher Wong notes.

Tentative signs of moderation

“Daily momentum is bullish while rise in RSI moderated near overbought conditions. Resistance at 1.3060 (50 DMA), 1.31 (38.2% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low) Support at 1.2980 (23.6% fibo), 1.2940 (21 DMA).”

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.95% above our model-implied mid. MAS policy decision will be announced on 14 Oct, alongside 3Q GDP. We expect MAS to maintain policy status quo again at the upcoming Oct MPC meeting as prevailing appreciating path of the S$NEER policy band remains appropriate.”

“But we do not rule out an outside chance that the MAS may surprise with an earlier easing, given that MAS adopts a forward-looking approach to monetary policy making and that the core CPI’s disinflation journey remains intact, apart from the slight bump-up in August.”

USD/SGD continued to get bumped up for 5 consecutive sessions. Pair was last at 1.304         1 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

MAS may surprise with an earlier easing

“Hotter US payrolls was the trigger, in line with our caution that the corrective rebound can continue. Daily momentum is bullish while rise in RSI moderated near overbought conditions. Resistance at 1.3060 (50 DMA), 1.31 (38.2% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low) Support at 1.2980 (23.6% fibo), 1.2940 (21 DMA).

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.79% above our modelimplied mid. MAS policy decision will be announced on 14 Oct, alongside 3Q GDP. We expect MAS to maintain policy status quo again at the upcoming Oct MPC meeting as prevailing appreciating path of the S$NEER policy band remains appropriate.

“But we do not rule out an outside chance that the MAS may surprise with an earlier easing, given that MAS adopts a forward-looking approach to monetary policy making and that the core CPI’s disinflation journey remains intact, apart from the slight bump-up in August.”

USD/SGD has corrected higher for 4 consecutive days this week, tracking the uptick in USD. Pair was last at 1.2978, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Daily momentum is mild bullish

“Focus today on US NFP. Risks are likely to be symmetric for USDSGD. If print comes in hotter, then the corrective rebound can continue but if NFP prints lower, then the pair should consolidate with a downside bias.”

“Daily momentum is mild bullish while rise in RSI moderated. Consolidation likely ahead of NFP data. Resistance at 1.2980 (23.6% fibo retracement of Jul high to Sep low), 1.3070 (50 DMA). Support at 1.2940 (21 DMA), 1.2890, 1.28 levels. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.85% above our model-implied mid.”

“USD/SGD rebounded. Pair was last at 1.2863, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Mild bearish momentum on daily chart fades

“Mild bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose from near oversold conditions. Near rebound risks likely to play out but broader trend remains skewed to the downside.”

“Resistance at 1.29, 1.30 levels. Support at 1.28, 1.2740 levels (76.4% fibo retracement of 2012 low to 2020 high). S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.96% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD continued to trade lower, tracking the broad decline in USD, rebound in RMB and JPY. Pair was last at 1.2811, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Broader trend remains skewed to the downside

“Daily momentum is turning mild bearish while RSI is near oversold conditions. We remain cautious of near term rebound risks but broader trend remains skewed to the downside.”

“Support at 1.28, 1.2740 levels (76.4% fibo retracement of 2012 low to 2020 high). Resistance at 1.29, 1.30 levels. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.95% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD continues to trade near recent low but decline may have found strong support in the short term. Pair was last at 1.2830, OCBC FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

Daily momentum is flat

“USD/SGD continued to trade near recent low but decline may have found strong support in the short term.”

“Daily momentum is flat while RSI rose. Risks somewhat skewed to the upside. Resistance at 1.2910, 1.2970 (21 DMA). Support at 1.2820, 1.2740 levels. Sell rallies preferred.”

USD/SGD fell sharply, driven by USD decline and RMB strength. Pair was last at 1.2851.

SGD strength may continue to stay

“Daily momentum turned bearish while RSI fell into oversold conditions. We still caution for rebound risks. Support here at 1.2820, 1.2740 levels. Resistance at 1.2910, 1.2990 (21 DMA).”

“We had shared that the recent uptick in core CPI for Aug may well suggest that it is premature for MAS to ease policy stance at Oct MPC unless MAS switches from inflation fighting mode to supporting growth. As such, SGD strength may continue to stay with us for a little longer, especially if USD softness presses on.”

USD/SGD continued to trade in a subdued range near recent low. Pair was last at 1.2885, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

SGD to continue staying strong

“Daily momentum is flat while RSI rose. Rebound risks not ruled out in the near term. Support here at 1.2870. Resistance at 1.30 (21 DMA), 1.31 levels. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.88% above our model implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.2895.”

“Core CPI for Aug re-accelerated. For the first 8 months of the year, core CPI is at 3%. This may suggest that it is premature for MAS to ease policy stance at Oct MPC unless MAS switches from inflation fighting mode to supporting growth.

“SGD strength may continue to stay with us for a little longer, especially if USD softness presses on.”

USD/SGD fell and closed below 1.30- handle for the first time in nearly 10 years, OCBC’s FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risks skewed to the downside

“Softer UST yields and USD owing to renewed hopes for larger Fed cut was the main trigger. Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Risks skewed to the downside. Support at 1.2950 levels (recent low), 1.2910 levels. Resistance at 1.3040 (21 DMA), 1.31 levels.

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.87% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.2953. With S$NEER close to its strong end of its band, the room for further downside in USD/SGD will continue to be restrained intra-day unless broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USDSGD can shift lower.”

“Near term, we expect the pair to take cues from USD. US retail sales (Tue) and FOMC (Thu) may provide the catalyst.”

USD/SGD resumed its move lower, taking cues from softer UST yields, USD overnight, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Mild bullish momentum on daily chart fades

“Mild bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI fell. Consolidation likely at lower levels. Support at 1.2953 (recent low). Resistance at 1.3065 (21-DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low).”

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.89% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.2979. With S$NEER close to its strong end of its band, the room for further downside in USDSGD will continue to be restrained intra-day unless broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USD/SGD can shift lower.”

USDSGD was a touch firmer this morning, on follow-through momentum from the USD bounce after US CPI, real hourly earnings surprised to the upside, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Markets are waiting for US PPI, initial jobless claims

“Pair was last at 1.3053. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI was flat. Consolidation likely. Resistance at 1.3065 (21 DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). Support at 1.30, 1.2953 (recent low).”

““S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.88% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.3036. With S$NEER close to its strong end of its band, the room for further downside in USD/SGD may be limited intra-day unless broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USD/SGD can be lower.”

“We watch US PPI, initial jobless claims later tonight.”

USD/SGD’s rebound post-NFP last Fri stumbled at 21-DMA, OCBC FX strategist Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Waiting for US CPI later this evening

“Broader decline in UST yields, USD and the JPY strength this morning saw USD/SGD eased lower. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.91% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.3010. With S$NEER close to its lower bound, the room for further downside in USD/SGD may be limited intra-day.”

“However, if broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USD/SGD can be lower. Pair was last at 1.3025. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI fell. Consolidation likely near recent lows as markets await FOMC decision next week.”

“Support at 1.30, 1.2953 (recent low). Resistance at 1.3065 (21-DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). We watch US CPI later this evening.”

USD/SGD fell further, tracking the broader softness in USD, OCBC Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Consolidation likely near recent lows ahead of US jobs data

“Pair breached 1.30 briefly to trade a low of 1.2992 at one point. Pair was last below 1.30 levels. Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI fell. Consolidation likely near recent lows as markets await US jobs data. Support at 1.2960. Resistance at 1.3090 (21 DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low).”

“S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.92% above our model-implied mid, with model implied spot lower bound at 1.2990. With S$NEER close to its lower bound, the room for further downside in USD/SGD may be limited intra-day. However, if broader USD takes another leg lower, then the implied lower bound of USD/SGD can be lower.”

USD/SGD fell. Pair was last at 1.3030 levels, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Consolidation likely as markets await US jobs data

“Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI fell. Consolidation likely as markets await US jobs data. Softer print may lead to markets further pricing in 50bp cut for the Fed at upcoming FOMC.”

“That may translate into USD softness. Support at 1.30 (recent low). Resistance at 1.31 (21 DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.89% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD rebounded to near 1.31 overnight before partially erasing the move, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Rebound may have stalled for now

“Pair was last at 1.3070 levels. Daily momentum turned is bullish while RSI is flat. Rebound may have stalled for now.”

“Resistance at 1.3110 (21 DMA), 1.3160 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low). Support at 1.3050, 1.30 (recent low). S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.87% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD rebounded, in line with our caution, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Further rebound not ruled out

“Move higher tracked broad US Dollar (USD) rebound. Pair was last at 1.3090 levels. Daily momentum turned mild bullish while RSI rose. Rebound is underway. Resistance at 1.3130/60 levels (21 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2024 high to low).”

“Support at 1.30 (recent low). Further rebound not ruled out as markets adjust/ reduce shorts ahead of key data risks – US labour market. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.87% above our model-implied mid.”

USD/SGD continued to trade a subdued range near recent lows, OCBC’s FX analyst Christopher Wong notes.

Bearish momentum on daily chart is waning

“RMB strength, broad USD softness are some factors that continued to underpin SGD strength to some extent. S$NEER was last estimated at ~1.85% above our model-implied mid, with implied lower bound at 1.3010.”

“S$NEER near the stronger side of its band somewhat suggests that additional gains in SGD may continue to “lose pace” vs. its peers although SGD may still appreciate vs a broadly softer USD.”

“USD/SGD was last at 1.3074. Bearish momentum on daily chart is waning while RSI rose from near oversold conditions. We remain somewhat cautious of rebound risks. Resistance here at 1.31 and 1.3210 (21 DMA). Support at 1.30, 1.2960 levels.”

USD/SGD fell further this morning, taking cues from a softer USD and another round of gains in RMB, JPY, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD is oversold

“We cautioned that the sharp move lower in USD/RMB did not see follow-through via policymakers’ daily USD/CNY fixing. As such, the RMB momentum may not be sustained intra-day.”

“Pair was last seen at 1.3201 levels. Daily momentum is bearish but RSI is in oversold conditions. Cautious of rebound risks. Resistance at 1.33 (23.6% fibo), 1.3390 (38.2% fibo retracement of Oct high to Jan low) and 1.3460 (200 DMA, 50% fibo).”

“S$NEER was estimated at ~1.78% above our model-implied mid, but has started to ease away from its upper bound.”