Quotes and rates for precious metals Silver vs US Dollar (XAGUSD)

• Silver price recovers from a four-day low but remains stuck in a $1 range, failing to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar and falling yields.
• Momentum supports buyers, with RSI in bullish territory, as XAG/USD targets the YTD high of $34.86 and beyond.
• A break below $33.25 could shift bias to neutral, with further support at $33.00 and the October 17 low of $31.32.

Silver consolidated at around $33.60 as grey metal bulls failed to capitalize on falling US yields and a weak US Dollar. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is seesawing within a $1 range and virtually unchanged.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price recovered some ground after falling to a four-day low of $33.25. The uptrend remains intact, and if buyers lift the XAG/USD spot price above $34.00 a troy ounce, they could challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high at $34.86.

Momentum backs buyers, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) persisting in bullish territory.

If XAG/USD clears the YTD high, the next key resistance levels would be the October 2012 peak at $35.40, ahead of challenging the psychological $40.00, and the August 2011 high at $44.22.

Conversely, if the grey metal drops below $33.25, the next support would be $33.00. The break below could shift the bias to neutral, and if sellers drive Silver’s below October 17 low of $31.32, XAG/USD might reach the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.64.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Silver price recovers above $34.00 as US yields tumble.
• The Fed is expected to pursue a moderate rate-cut approach.
• Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Middle East limit the downside in the Silver price.

Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounds strongly above $34.00 in Thursday’s European session after declining to near $33.40 on Wednesday. The white metal bounces back as US bond yields tumble after a sharp rally in the past few weeks. 10-year US bond yields plummet to 4.19%, down 1.28% at the time of writing.

Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Meanwhile, the US Dollar has also faced a slight correction after a sharp rally. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides to near 104.15 after posting a fresh 12-week high around 104.50 on Wednesday.

The outlook of US yields and the Greenback remains firm as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to follow a moderate interest rate cut cycle. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November and December.

In today’s session, investors will focus on the flash United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for October, which will be published at 13:45 GMT.

The Silver price remains well-supported due to uncertainty over the United States (US) presidential elections, which are coming in less than two weeks and escalating Middle East tensions. The scenario of geopolitical and political uncertainty bodes well for precious metals, such as Silver price, as investors use the asset as a hedge in risky market conditions.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price recovers sharply after a mild correction to near $33.40. The white metal aims to revisit a fresh over 12-year high near $35.00. The asset strengthened after breaking above the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe, which will act as support for now. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $32.30 and $31.10, respectively, signal more upside ahead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

• Silver regains positive traction following the overnight pullback from a 12-year top.
• A move beyond $34.25-$34.30 is needed to support prospects for additional gains
• Any meaningful dip could attract dip-buyers and remain limited near $32.75-$32.65.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and for now, seems to have stalled its corrective slide from the $34.85-$34.90 area, or the highest level since October 2012 touched this week. The white metal currently trades just below the $34.00 round figure, up over 0.50% for the day.

Looking at the broader picture, the recent strength beyond the $32.65-$32.75 supply zone was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside. That said, this week's fake-out above a short-term ascending channel extending from the August swing low warrants some caution.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying and a sustained move beyond the $34.25-$34.30 immediate hurdle before positioning for any further gains. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the positive momentum and make a fresh attempt to conquer the $35.00 psychological mark. The momentum could extend further and lift the commodity to the October 2012 swing high, around the $35.35-$35.40 region. 

On the flip side, the $33.45-$33.40 area, or the weekly low touched on Wednesday, could protect the immediate downside ahead of the $33.00 round-figure mark. Any further decline is likely to attract some dip-buyers, which, in turn, should limit losses for the XAG/USD near the $32.75-$32.65 resistance-turned-support. Some follow-through selling, however, might shift the bias in favor of bears and pave the way for a further downfall.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price drops sharply, erasing Tuesday's gains, driven by profit-taking and a rise in US Treasury yields.
• A daily close below $33.78 could confirm a ‘bearish engulfing’ pattern, signaling potential for deeper pullback to $32.95 and $32.51.
• For a bullish continuation, buyers need to reclaim the $34.00 level and retest the year-to-date high at $34.86.

Silver price retreats after posting a multi-year high at $34.86, yet erases more than Tuesday’s gains, and is down over 3.30 percent. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $33.66, sponsored by higher US Treasury yields and a strong US Dollar.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price reversed its course on Wednesday, after printing 12-year peak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) tumbled after reaching overbought conditions, an indication that longs were booking profits. Sellers moved in and capitalized on that move due to a mean reversion play.

If XAG/USD records a daily close below October 22 low of $33.78 it would confirm a ‘bearish engulfing’ chart pattern and pave the way for a deeper pullback. In that outcome, Silver’s first support would be October 4 swing high at $32.95. A breach of the latter will reveal the May 20 peak at $32.51, followed by the October 17 low of $31.32.

For a bullish continuation, buyers must clear the $34.00 psychological figure, before challenging the YTD high at $34.86.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Silver price faces selling pressure as US bond yields rise sharply.
• Middle East tensions and US political uncertainty will limit the downside in the Silver price.
• Trump’s victory could weigh on exports of US close trading partners.

Silver price (XAG/USD) corrects sharply below $34.50 in Wednesday’s New York session after registering a fresh more than 12-year high slightly below $35.00 on Tuesday. The rally in the white metal appears to have paused for a while as the US Treasury yields have extended its upside.

10-year US Treasury yields jump to near 4.24% as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to follow a gradual policy-easing cycle. Historically, higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver. The US Dollar (USD), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, revisits the August high of 104.45.

However, the upside trend remains intact due to multiple catalysts. From growing United States (US) political uncertainty to escalating Middle East tensions, every catalyst is acting as a tailwind for the Silver price.

According to the Reuters/Ipsos polls, current Vice President Kamala Harris leads by a slight margin against former President Donald Trump. However, market participants worry that Trump’s victory could result in higher tariffs and lower taxes, which could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to return to the restrictive policy stance for a period of time.

In the Middle East region, the launch of a rocket salvo by Iran-backed-Hezbollah on Israel’s military base near Tel Aviv exhibits signs that tensions between them will stay afloat. The appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, as a safe haven, given that investors consider them as a hedge against dismal market sentiment.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price slumps after failing to capture the key resistance of $35.00. The white metal strengthened after breaking above the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe, which will act as a support for now. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $32.15 signal more upside ahead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price holds position near a 12-year high of $34.87, recorded on Tuesday.
• The demand for safe-haven Silver rises amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• The tight situation in the upcoming US election has further heightened demand for safe-haven assets.

Silver price (XAG/USD) halts its six-day winning streak, trading around $34.87 per troy ounce, the highest level not seen since October 2012, during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The outlook for Silver is bullish, driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

On Tuesday, Israel confirmed the death of Hashem Safieddine, the successor to the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli operation last month. The Israeli military stated that Safieddine was killed in a strike conducted three weeks ago in the southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Reuters.

Additionally, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken conveyed to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday that Israel's efforts to facilitate increased humanitarian aid into Gaza have been inadequate. Blinken urged Israel to take further action to improve the situation.

The upcoming US election has further heightened demand for safe-haven assets like Silver. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead of 46% to 43% over former Republican President Donald Trump.

This lead, recorded in a six-day poll that closed on Monday, is only slightly up from her 45% to 42% advantage in a poll conducted a week earlier, highlighting the tightness of the race with just two weeks remaining before the November 5 election.

Additionally, demand for non-yielding Silver has been boosted by monetary easing measures from major central banks. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have both recently reduced key lending rates, contributing to increased interest in Silver.

Furthermore, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to announce a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points during its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. In contrast, expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have decreased following a series of positive economic data.

• Silver prices hit 12-year highs at $34.86, clearing key psychological levels, despite rising US Treasury yields.
• Overbought RSI suggests room for further gains, with next resistance levels at $35.40 (October 2012 high) and $44.22 (August 2011 peak).
• Key support levels include $33.46, followed by the October 17 low of $31.32, in case of a pullback.

Silver price rallied to twelve-year highs of $34.86 on Tuesday, due to risk aversion and even though US Treasury yields are rising. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $34.86, up over 3% with traders eyeing the $35.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

XAG/USD has ripped through key psychological levels during the last three days, clearing the $31.00-$34.00 area, an indication that buyers are gathering steam. This means the uptrend remains intact and could extend towards the October 2012 peak.

Momentum supports buyers, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought. Nevertheless, due to the steepness of the rally, the RSI’s most extreme reading would be 80. Hence, bulls have enough room to spare to push Silver prices higher.

The XAG/USD first resistance would be $35.00. Once cleared, the next stop would be the October 2012 high at $35.40, followed by the August 2011 peak at $44.22, and ahead of the all-time high at $49.83.

Conversely, if XAG/USD retreats below $34.0, the first support would be the current week's low of $33.46. The next support would be the October 17 daily low of $31.32 on further weakness.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Silver price soars to near $34.50 due to growing uncertainty over US elections and escalating Middle East tensions.
• PBoC’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut has improved Silver’s demand as a metal.
• The US Dollar refreshes an 11-week high on expectations of moderate interest rate cuts from the Fed.

Silver price (XAG/USD) surges to near $34.50 in Tuesday’s North American session, the highest level seen in over 12 years. The white metal strengthened after Israel launched missiles at Hezbollah’s financial institutions situated in the southern Lebanese cities of Tyre and Nabatiyeh. Escalating tensions in the Middle East region has improved Silver’s appeal as a safe haven.

In the United States (US) economy, growing uncertainty over presidential elections, which are just two weeks away has also strengthened the Silver price appeal. Latest national polls have shown that competition between former US President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris is very stiff. Market experts worry that Trump’s victory could undermine the currencies of the US’s trading partners. Trump promised to raise tariffs and lower taxes if he wins elections.

The demand outlook of the Silver as metal has improved after the People’s Bank of China’s policy announcement on Monday in which the central bank reduced one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by larger-than-expected size of 25 basis points (bps). Silver as a metal has applications in various industries such as Electric Vehicles (EV), wires and cables, and mining etc. The PBoC cuts its key borrowing rates with an outsize margin to boost households’ consumption and spending on infrastructure and to revive the housing sector.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) posts a fresh 11-week high as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates gradually. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, climbs above 104.00.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price strengthens after a breakout above the horizontal resistance plotted from May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $30.70 and $31.70, respectively, signals more upside ahead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price receives support from the safe-haven flows amid rising geopolitical tensions.
• Israel has targeted sites linked to Hezbollah's financial operations in Beirut, heightening concerns about an escalating conflict.
• With the US election just two weeks away, demand for safe-haven silver is on the rise.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its winning streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around $34.10 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday. The demand for safe-haven Silver is increasing amid rising tensions, as Israel has targeted sites associated with Hezbollah's financial operations in Beirut, raising fears of escalating conflict.

Israel's potential retaliatory actions against Iran are also back in focus following an Iranian drone breach that detonated near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's residence. Additionally, Israeli military forces intensified their operations on Monday, surrounding hospitals and shelters for displaced individuals in the northern Gaza Strip, which has hindered the delivery of essential aid to civilians, according to Reuters.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Israel on Tuesday as the first stop on a broader Middle East tour aimed at revitalizing ceasefire talks in Gaza and discussing the region's future following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

As the tight US election approaches in just two weeks, demand for safe-haven Silver continues to rise. On Monday, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, presented starkly different messages on the campaign trail as they sought to win over undecided voters ahead of Election Day.

Moreover, easing monetary policies from major central banks are supporting non-yielding Silver prices. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to announce a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

Recent inflation data indicates that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may contemplate potential rate cuts next month. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2024.

• Silver price posts a fresh high above 34.00 on multiple tailwinds.
• The white metal gains on the fresh escalation in the Middle East war and US presidential election uncertainty.
• The Fed is expected to reduce interest rates moderately.

Silver price (XAG/USD) jumps above $34.00 in Monday’s North American session for the first time in almost 12 years. The white metal strengthens on multiple tailwinds: continuing war between Israel and Iran, and growing uncertainty over United States (US) presidential elections.

Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran’s attack on October 1, as shown by leaked documents originating from the National Security Agency (NSA) and the Geospatial Intelligence Agency (GEOIN), which was authenticated by a US official, reported by The New York Times. The scenario of escalating geopolitical tensions improves the appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, as a safe haven.

The Silver’s safe-haven appeal has also been strengthened by neck-to-neck competition between US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump for presidential elections on November 5.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) bounces back strongly after a mild correction on expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy-easing spell will be moderate in the remainder of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, aims to recapture the 11-week high around 104.00.

Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the United States (US) flash S&P Global PMI data for October, which will be published on Thursday.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price strengthens after a breakout above the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $30.70 and $31.70, respectively, signals more upside ahead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

• Silver gains some follow-through traction on Monday and jumps to a fresh 12-year top.
• A slightly overbought RSI on the daily chart warrants some caution for bullish traders.
• Any meaningful corrective slide is more likely to get bought into and remain limited.

Silver (XAG/USD) advances to its highest level since October 2012 during the first half of the European session on Monday, with bulls now looking to extend the upward trajectory beyond the $34.00 round-figure mark. 

Looking at the broader picture, Friday's sustained breakout above the $32.50 supply zone was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has moved above the 70 mark and points to slightly overbought conditions. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further appreciating move. 

Meanwhile, any meaningful corrective decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $33.00 round figure. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAG/USD back towards the $32.50 resistance breakpoint, now turned support, en route to the $32.00 mark. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. 

On the flip side, the immediate hurdle is pegged near the $33.45 horizontal zone, above which the XAG/USD could aim to reclaim the $35.00 psychological mark. The momentum could get extended further towards the October 2012 swing high, around the $35.35-$35.40 region, though the technical setup warrants some caution for bullish traders.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price receives support from safe-haven flows amid rising Middle-East tensions.
• Israel targeted the offices of Hezbollah's al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution in southern Beirut.
• The non-yielding Silver gains ground due to easing monetary policies from major central banks.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around $34.10 during the Asian session on Monday. This upward trend is driven by safe-haven demand amidst escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Lebanese media report that Israel has launched a new series of airstrikes on southern Beirut, targeting the offices of Hezbollah's al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution. Furthermore, the US government has initiated an investigation into the unauthorized release of classified documents that outline Israel's military preparations for a potential strike on Iran.

Furthermore, easing monetary policies from major central banks are bolstering non-yielding Silver prices. On Monday, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) reduced the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.35% to 3.10% and the 5-year LPR from 3.85% to 3.60%. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) also opted to cut its interest rates by 25 basis points.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to implement a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Recent inflation data suggests that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may consider potential rate cuts next month. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2024.

Regarding the US elections, markets appear optimistic about Republican nominee Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election. Trump's fiscal and trade policies are viewed as inflationary and favorable for the US Dollar (USD), which could negatively impact Silver demand. A stronger US Dollar makes Silver more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies, potentially dampening their purchasing power.

• Silver surges past $32.00, driven by falling US Treasury yields, with prices up 2.26% during the North American session.
• The RSI indicates growing bullish momentum, with key resistance levels at $32.95 and $33.00 in sight.
• A pullback below $32.00 could see support at $31.32, with stronger backing around the 50-DMA at $30.13.

Silver's price skyrocketed during the North American session, sponsored by falling US Treasury bond yields. Even though traders trimmed bets that the Federal Reserve would ease policy less aggressively than expected, precious metals extended their gains. The XAG/USD trades at $32.33, up over 2.26%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver’s price uptrend remains intact, at the brisk of registering a yearly record high. Earlier in the session, XAG/USD cleared the $32.00 psychological barrier and has extended its gains past the $32.50 area.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, aiming higher, indicating buyers are gathering steam.

 Given the backdrop, the XAG/USD key resistance levels would be the year-to-date (YTD) high at $32.95, followed by the $33.00 mark. Once it is exceeded, the next stop would be October 1, 2012, peaking at $35.40.

Conversely, if XAG/USD retreats below $32.00, the first support would be the October 17 swing low of $31.32, followed by the confluence of the October 8 low and the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $30.13

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver price jumps above $32.00 on multiple tailwinds.
• Israel vowed to escalate attacks on Gaza after Sinwar’s killing.
• Investors expect the Fed to go slow with interest rate cuts.

Silver price (XAG/USD) climbs above the key resistance of $32.00 in Friday’s North American session. The white metal strengthens as a few catalysts have improved its demand as a safe-haven. Growing uncertainty over US presidential elections and escalating tensions in the Middle East region have forced investors to remain risk-averse.

There is a neck-to-neck competition between Democratic Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump in national polls. According to FiveThirtyEight’s daily election poll tracker, Kamala Harris is leading polls and has a 2.4-percentage-point lead over Republican Trump.

Meanwhile, tensions between Iran and Israel have grown further as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue the massacre in Gaza and Lebanon after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on Wednesday, which has dashed hopes of a ceasefire.

The white metal continues to find bids despite market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates further by 50 basis points (bps) in November have gone out of the picture. Traders expect the Fed to follow a moderate rate-cut path. This has kept the US Dollar (USD) firm against its major peers. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major peers, falls slightly from its 10-week high of 103.90, but its outlook remains upbeat.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price comes closer to revisiting the decade-high of $33.00. Upward-sloping 20- and 50- Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $31.30 and $30.50, respectively, suggest a strong uptrend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches 60.00. A decisive break above the same would activate a bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

• Silver regains positive traction on Friday and climbs to a nearly two-week top.
• The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.
• Move beyond $32.20-$32.25 is needed to validate the near-term positive bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) regains positive traction following the previous day's good two-way price moves and climbs to a two-week top during the first half of the European session on Friday. The white metal, however, continues with its struggle to capitalize on the move beyond the $32.00 round figure, warranting some caution for bullish traders. 

Looking at the broader picture, the recent bounce from the vicinity of the $30.00 psychological mark and the subsequent move up supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still away from being in the overbought zone. 

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $32.20-$32.25 hurdle before placing fresh bullish bets. The XAG/USD might then climb to its highest level since December 2012 touched earlier this month and make a fresh attempt to conquer the $33.00 mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. 

On the flip side, the $31.65 horizontal zone now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the overnight swing low, around the $31.30 region. Any further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $31.00 mark. A convincing break below the said handle, however, might prompt some technical selling and make the XAG/USD vulnerable. 

The downward trajectory might then drag the white metal below the $30.75 support zone, back towards last week's swing low, around the $30.15-$30.10 region. The said area now coincides with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is closely followed by the $30.00 mark, which if broken decisively will shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price appreciates due to safe-haven flows amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• Risk aversion strengthens due to the killing of Yahya Sinwar, the militant leader of Hamas.
• Demand for the non-yielding Silver increases due to the prevailing likelihood of interest rate reductions by major central banks.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the fourth consecutive day, hovering around $32.00 per troy ounce during the Asian trading session on Friday. The price of the grey metal receives support from safe-haven flows amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

Israel's military and the Shin Bet security service confirmed on Thursday that Yahya Sinwar, the Gaza Strip Chief of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas, was killed by Israeli forces during an operation in southern Gaza on Wednesday. Sinwar's death has raised concerns among the families of Israeli hostages taken to Gaza by Hamas, who fear that the killing of the militant leader might increase the risk to their loved ones, according to Reuters.

The non-yielding assets like Silver gains demand due to the prevailing sentiment of interest rate reductions by major central banks. US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 90.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November and a 74.0% chance of another cut in December.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its Main Refinancing Operations Rate by 25 basis points to 3.4%. Recent inflation data also indicates that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may consider potential rate cuts next month.

• Silver rises third day; capped below $32.00 amid high US Treasury yields.
• Momentum suggests more gains; resistance eyed at $32.17, May high at $32.51.
• Support at $31.37; break below could lead to retests of $30.76, October low $30.12.

Silver's price extended its gains to three straight days yet remains below the $32.00 figure as US Treasury yields cap the grey metal’s advance. This, along with a buoyant US Dollar, didn’t deter the precious metal from advancing higher, and it consolidated at around the higher bound of the $31.50/$31.90 range. The XAG/USD trades at $31.90, above its opening price by 0.80%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

After plunging almost vertically from a year-to-date (YTD) peak of $32.95 to $30.12 within three days, the non-yielding metal is now recovering, with buyers targeting a potential test of the $33.00 level.

Silver’s recovery from plunging almost vertically from a year-to-date (YTD) peak of $32.95 to $30.12 within three days continued on Thursday. Momentum hints at buyers gathering steam, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Hence, the XAG/USD path of least resistance is tilted to the upside.

That said, the first resistance would be the $32.00 figure, followed by the October 16 high at $32.17. Once those levels are surpassed, the next stop would be the May 20 swing high at $32.51 before challenging the YTD high at $32.95.

Conversely, if XAG/USD slips below $31.37, Silver could drop to the weekly low of $30.76. If surpassed, this would clear the path to challenge October’s 8 low of $30.12.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver price trades sideways below $32.00 as investors seek fresh cues about the Fed’s likely monetary policy action in November and December.
• The US Dollar strengthens after better-than-expected US Retail Sales growth and lower jobless claims.
• Rising US Trump’s odds of winning presidential elections improve the Silver price’s appeal as a safe haven.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range below the key resistance of $32.00 in Thursday’s North American session. The white metal consolidates as investors look for fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in the remaining year.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, 30-day Federal Funds futures pricing data shows that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in both policy meetings in November and December.

Meanwhile, upbeat United States (US) monthly Retail Sales and lower Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 11 have strengthened the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh 10-month high at 103.85.

The Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.4%, faster than estimates of 0.3% and the former release of 0.1%. Meanwhile, individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time came in lower at 241K than estimates of 260K.

10-year US Treasury yields soar to 4.08%. Historically, higher yields on interest-bearing assets increase the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver. However, the Silver price remains supported as growing speculation for former President US Donald Trump winning upcoming presidential elections has improved its appeal as safe-haven.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price strives to reclaim the decade-high of $33.00. Upward-sloping 20- and 50- Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $31.20 and $30.45, respectively, suggest a strong uptrend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches 60.00. A decisive break above the same would activate a bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price may regain its ground as lower US Treasury yields boost the attractiveness of precious metals.
• The non-yielding Silver may appreciate as multiple banks are widely expected to deliver interest rate cuts.
• Safe-haven Silver may strengthen as Israel escalates its airstrikes on Lebanon.

Silver price (XAG/USD) dips slightly after two days of gains, trading around $31.60 per troy ounce during Thursday's Asian session. However, the non-yielding Silver received support from lower yields on US Treasury bonds. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 3.94% and 4.03%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Market expectations are leaning toward a total of 125 basis points in rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) over the next year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 94.1% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November. Lower interest rates enhance the attractiveness of precious metals like Silver.

In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point reduction in both the Main Refinancing Operations and the Deposit Facility Rate in its policy meeting later in the day. Recent inflation data also suggests that the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may follow suit with potential rate cuts next month.

Silver prices may receive additional support from safe-haven flows due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. On Wednesday, Israel intensified its airstrikes on Lebanon, including an attack that destroyed the municipal headquarters of a major town, resulting in the deaths of 16 individuals, including the mayor. This marks the largest assault on an official Lebanese state building since the onset of the Israeli air campaign, according to Reuters.

US President Joe Biden is indicating a new willingness to leverage US military assistance to Israel, using it as both an incentive and a deterrent in its critical confrontation with Iran and Iran-backed militant groups. This strategy may increase Washington's influence over Israeli decision-making.