Quotes and rates for precious metals Silver vs US Dollar (XAGUSD)

• Silver price moves higher to $24.70, while the broader trend is sideways.
• The core PCE inflation will provide cues about Fed’s rate cut timing.
• Fed policymakers see three rate cuts by the year-end.

Silver price (XAG/USD) advances to $24.70 in the late Asian session on Thursday. The white metal posts gains ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for February, which will be published on Friday.

Core PCE will provide cues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates. The annual underlying inflation data is estimated to have grown steadily by 2.8%, with monthly growth declining to 0.3% from 0.4% in January.

Currently, market expectations indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates from the June policy meeting. The expectations also show that there will be three rate cuts by the year-end, as projected by Fed policymakers in the monetary policy meeting last week.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in 64% chance that the Fed will trim interest rates in June.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edges down slightly from monthly highs of 104.50. The USD Index is broadly sideways in a 104.00-104.50 range from last four trading sessions. The US core PCE inflation is expected to support the USD index to blown out the consolidation. 10-year US Treasury yields rebound to 4.21% after falling sharply to 4.18% on Wednesday.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price consolidates in a range of $24.32-$25.00 from a week. This exhibits an indecisiveness among market participants. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $24.60 remain stick to the spot price, demonstrating a sideways trend.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.

Silver hourly chart

• Silver drops to a two-week low on Wednesday, albeit manages to hold above the 38.2% Fibo.
• The mixed technical setup warrants some caution before positioning for any further downfall.
• Any attempted recovery might confront a stiff barrier and remain capped near the $25.00 mark.

Silver (XAG/USD) oscillates in a narrow trading band through the first half of the European session and consolidates its recent losses to a two-week low touched earlier this Wednesday. The white metal currently trades just below the mid-$24.00s and seems vulnerable to prolonging its recent pullback from the YTD peak touched last week.

That said, mixed technical indicators on the daily chart and failure to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March rally, warrant some caution for aggressive bearish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the $24.30 support zone before positioning for a further depreciating move. The XAG/USD might then weaken further below the $24.00 round-figure mark and test the 50% Fibo. level near the $23.85 zone.

The subsequent downfall has the potential to drag the white metal to the $23.40 confluence, comprising the 61.8% Fibo. and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), en route to the $23.00 round-figure mark. Failure to defend the latter might expose the next relevant support near the $22.45 region.

On the flip side, any attempted recovery is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $25.00 psychological mark. That said, a sustained strength beyond the said handle might trigger a bout of a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the $25.50 region en route to the YTD peak, around the $25.75-$25.80 region. This is followed by the December 2023 swing high, just ahead of the $26.00 round figure, which if cleared will set the stage for additional near-term gains.

Silver daily chart

• Silver meets with a fresh supply on Tuesday and drops closer to last week’s swing low.
• The setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD is to the downside.
• A sustained break below the 38.2% Fibo. will reinforce the near-term negative outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) comes under some selling pressure on Tuesday and remains depressed near mid-$24.00s through the first half of the European session. Meanwhile, the technical setup seems tilted in favour of bearish traders and supports prospects for an extension of last week's sharp retracement slide from the $25.75-$25.80 region, or its highest level since early December.

The XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance below the $24.85-$24.80 horizontal support, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March rally. The subsequent slide, however, stalled near the $24.40 area, just ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Meanwhile, mixed oscillators on the daily chart make it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the said support before positioning for any further losses.

The XAG/USD might then accelerate the corrective decline further towards the $24.00 round figure before dropping to 50% Fibo. level support, around the $23.85 region. This is followed by the $23.35 confluence, comprising the 61.8% Fibo. and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag the white metal below the $23.00 mark, towards the next relevant support near the $22.45 region.

On the flip side, any attempted recovery is likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the $25.00 psychological mark. That said, a sustained strength beyond the said handle might trigger a bout of a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the $25.50 region en route to the YTD peak, around the $25.75-$25.80 region. This is followed by the December 2023 swing high, just ahead of the $26.00 round figure, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price rises up and tips the top of a long-term range before reversing lower. 
• It has formed a Bearish Japanese candlestick pattern, enhancing the reversal thesis. 
• A move back down to a cluster of MAs in the 23.000s is foreseen subject to a continuation of the weakness.
   

Silver price (XAG/USD) is trading in the $24.750s on Friday, after touching the top of a multi-month range at roughly $25.700 and reversing lower. 

Silver formed a Bearish Engulfing Japanese candlestick pattern on the daily chart on Thursday, which reinforces the reversal and suggests more downside in the short-term. 

Silver versus US Dollar: Daily chart 

The Moving Average Convergence/ Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator is threatening to cross below its signal line, adding credence to the bearish reversal. The MACD is a particularly reliable indicator within range-bound markets and a cross would provide a good sell signal. 

If the pair breaks below 24.405 it will probably continue south to a potential target at the cluster of major moving averages, in the lower 23.000s, starting with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 23.475. 

A break back above the 25.770 highs of Thursday, however, would indicate a probable extension of the uptrend. 

A decisive break above the range highs would indicate even more bullish momentum higher. Such a move would be expected to then reach a conservative target at the 0.618 extrapolation of the height of the range from the breakout point higher, and a target at 28.524.

• Silver drifts lower for the second straight day and touches a one-and-half-week low.
• The mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing aggressive bearish bets.
• A convincing break below the 38.2% Fibo. level will set the stage for deeper losses.

Silver (XAG/USD) extends the previous day's sharp retracement slide from the $25.75-$25.80 region, or its highest level since early December and remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Friday. The white metal maintains its offered tone through the early part of the European session and is currently placed around mid-$24.00s, just above a one-and-half-week low touched earlier today.

From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the $24.85-$24.80 horizontal support, coinciding with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March rally was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. The subsequent slide, however, stalls ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart – though have been losing traction – are still holding in the positive territory.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the said support near the $24.30 region before positioning for any further depreciating move for the XAG/USD. The corrective decline could then drag the white metal below the $24.00 round-figure mark, towards testing the 50% Fibo. level support near the $23.85 zone en route to the $23.40 confluence, comprising the 61.8% Fibo. and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On the flip side, the $24.80 horizontal support breakpoint could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $25.00 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a bout of a short-covering rally towards the $25.50 region en route to the YTD peak, around the $25.75-$25.80 region. This is followed by the December 2023 swing high, just ahead of the $26.00 round figure, which if cleared decisively will set the stage for additional gains.

Silver daily chart

• Silver prices see a significant drop to $24.75, shedding over 3% in response to a strengthening US Dollar.
• Technical analysis reveals a bearish engulfing pattern, despite a recent 'golden cross', signaling mixed signals for traders.
• The RSI indicates diminishing buying pressure, hinting at a potential bearish swing.

Silver's price plunged on Thursday amidst a risk-off impulse, reinvigorating the US Dollar. Consequently, the grey metal dropped more than $0.70, or 3.15%, as the XAG/USD traded at $24.75 after hitting a daily high of $25.77.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Silver is witnessing a downturn, as price action has formed a ‘bearish engulfing’ chart pattern in the last couple of days. Even though the 50-day moving average (DMA) has crossed above the 200-DMA, forming a classic ‘golden cross’ indicating that bulls are gathering steam, momentum suggests the opposite.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below 60 after peaking around 70, indicating that moderate buying pressure remains. However, the RSI's descent from higher levels suggests that momentum might wane, and bears could gain ground.

The recent pullback has seen the price retreat from resistance near the $26.00 mark. Immediate support is found near December’s 22 high turned support at $24.60, followed by the $24.00 level. A breach of the latter could open a path towards the $23.00 area, marked by the previous cycle lows.

On the other hand, an XAG/USD daily close above $25.00 could pave the way for challenging yearly highs at $25.77, followed by last year’s high at $25.91.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver price advances toward 11-month high at $26.14 as the US Dollar weakens.
• Fed’s projections for three rate cuts this year remain unabated.
• The market sentiment turns bullish on higher expectations for the Fed reducing interest rates from June.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its upside to $25.70 in Thursday’s European session. The white metal is an inch away from reclaiming an 11-month high at $26.14. The appeal for precious metals has strengthened after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

For the fifth time in a row, the Fed kept key borrowing rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50%, as expected. The appeal of the US Dollar weakened after the Fed stuck with three rate cut projections for this year. This led to a significant increase in market expectations for the Fed to lower interest rates from the June meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chances for a rate cut have increased to almost 75% from 59%, which was recorded before the Fed’s policy announcement. Expectations for Fed rate cuts in June rose significantly despite the Fed's failure to provide any meaningful timeframe for rate cuts, as it lacks evidence that inflation will sustainably decline to the 2% target.

Meanwhile, the demand for risk-sensitive assets improves as investors seem confident that rate cuts will start in June. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the London session. 10-year US Treasury yields have dropped slightly to 4.26%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers intraday losses but broadly seems weak.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price approaches the 11-month high at $26.14. The near-term demand is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $24.35 is sloping higher. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating that momentum leans towards the upside. Bullish momentum remains unabated as the momentum oscillator is still far from turning overbought.

If the Silver price breaks above its 11-month high at $26.14, it will discover more upside. This would open upside towards the 8 March 2022 high at $26.95, followed by the 15 September 2020 high at $27.83.

In an alternate scenario, a breakdown below December 22 high at $24.61 would expose the asset to 12 March low at $24.00 and January 30 high at $23.30.

Silver daily chart

• Silver prices surge nearly 3%, buoyed by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain current interest rates.
• US Dollar Index declines, supporting silver's upward momentum as investors digest the Fed's dovish stance.
• Technical indicators suggest potential for further gains, with XAG/USD traders targeting the $26.00 resistance level.
• Downside risks include a retracement towards the $25.00 support, and below.

Silver prices climbed on Wednesday after the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, held rates unchanged, delivering a “dovish” hold. Consequently, US Treasury yields edged down, and the Greenback remained pressured, as shown by the US Dollar Index (DXY), down 0.37% at 103.44. Therefore, XAG/USD trades at $25.61, up close to 3%.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Silver rallied sharply above the $25.50 rea, hitting a daily high at $25.63. A further upside is seen above that area, with grey metal traders eyeing $26.00 a troy ounce as the next key resistance level. Once those two levels are taken out, the next supply zone would be the April 18, 2022, high at $26.21, followed by the March 8, 2022, high at $26.94.

If sellers move in and drag prices below March 15’s high of $25.43, look for a drop toward  $25.00. Once cleared, the next stop would be the December 22 high turned support at $24.60, followed by the $24.00 mark.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• The XAG/USD stands firm near $24.90 in Wednesday's session.
• US Treasury yields are mixed with some rising and others declining.
• Jerome Powell's presser and the updated Dot Plots may fuel volatility in the bond market.

In Wednesday's session, the XAG/USD traded at $24.90, marking a 0.20% increase. While investors await the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision, the US Treasury bond yields, often seen as the cost of holding non-yielding metals, remain calm but could face aggressive movements if the bank delivers a dovish or hawkish surprise.

Markets will closely look at the updated Dot Plots and see if the Fed officials still see 100 bps of easing in 2024. As for now, Jerome Powell was seen somewhat dovish in his testimony before Congress while the Fed officials remained cautious. Meanwhile, the odds of a cut in May remain low while the doves continue to bet on the easing cycle to kick off in June.

XAG/USD technical analysis

Based on the indicators of the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the XAG/USD pair leans positive, predominantly displaying values in the 60s range. This reveals a dominance of buyers in the market, deepening the positive terrain. Combined with the decreasing green bars of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, momentum seems to shift towards a slight downturn. Still, the bullish phase with moderate volatility is maintained.

From a Simple Moving Average (SMA) analysis perspective, the pair is above the 20, 100, and 200-day SMAs, suggesting that the bulls have firm control in the overall trend.

XAG/USD daily chart

• Silver price extends losses amid a market caution on Wednesday.
• Fed is widely expected to maintain its current interest rates at March’s meeting.
• The prolonging of higher interest rates dampens metal prices including Silver.

Silver price loses ground for the third consecutive session, trading lower near $24.90 per troy ounce during early European trading hours on Wednesday. Silver price encounters challenges as the market adopts a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision.

The Fed is widely expected to maintain its current interest rates at March’s policy meeting. However, the potential for a hawkish tone from the Fed could exert pressure on metal prices, including Silver. Investors are closely monitoring the Fed's decision for any signals that may impact the future trajectory of interest rate cuts in 2024 and, consequently, metal prices.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference was a critical focal point. A hawkish stance from the Fed, suggesting prolonged high rates, could dampen demand for gold and its counterparts, reversing recent gains driven by rate cut expectations.

While other major central banks are expected to leave their current interest rates unchanged, market attention will focus on signals regarding the potential initiation of monetary easing. Inflationary pressures from the United States (US) prompted a readjustment of the probability of interest rate cuts in the June and July meetings by the Fed to around 59.2% and 76.0%, respectively. The prospect of higher interest rates has diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets like Silver.

Nevertheless, Silver could have received support from rising geopolitical tensions and an improved industrial outlook from China, the top metals consumer. China's industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales have exceeded forecasts. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has decided to keep policy rates unchanged at 3.45%.

• Silver extends its recent pullback from the YTD top, though the downside seems limited.
• The setup favours support prospects for the emergence of dip-buying near mid-$24.00s.
• Weakness below the latter might prompt fresh selling and pave the way for deeper losses.

Silver (XAG/USD) remains under some selling pressure for the second successive day on Tuesday and retreats further from the YTD peak, around the $25.45 region touched last week. The white metal continues losing ground through the first half of the European session and drops to a fresh daily low, around the $24.85-$24.80 area in the last hour.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the very important 200-day Simple Moving (SMA) and a subsequent strength beyond the $24.50-$24.60 horizontal barrier favour bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart – though have been retreating from higher levels – are still holding comfortably in the positive territory. This, in turn, supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying and warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciating move.

Meanwhile, the $24.60-$24.50 resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain limited near the $24.15-$24.10 region. This is followed by the $24.00 round-figure mark, which if broken decisively might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the corrective decline back towards the 200-day SMA support, currently pegged near the $23.35-$23.30 region.

On the flip side, momentum back above the $25.00 psychological mark might confront some resistance near the $25.20 region ahead of the YTD peak, around the $25.45 area. Some follow-through buying will reaffirm the near-term positive outlook and allow the XAG/USD to aim back to challenge the December 2023 swing high – levels just ahead of the $26.00 round figure. The latter should act as a pivotal point, which if cleared will pave the way for an extension of over a two-week-old uptrend.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price dips affected by an uptick in US Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar ahead of the Fed's decision.
• 'Bearish harami' pattern suggests potential declines if support breaks.
• Staying above $25.00 may boost bullish momentum, eyeing $26.00 resistance.

Silver's price dropped toward $25.00 a troy ounce on Monday as US Treasury bond yields rose ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The US 10-year Treasury bond yield advance underpins the Greenback, a headwind for the precious metal. Therefore, XAG/USD trades at around $25.03, down by 0.57% at the time of writing.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

The grey metal daily chart formed a ‘bearish harami’ candlestick chart pattern that suggests prices might edge to the downside, though sellers need to extend Silver’s losses beneath the March 15 swing low of $24.79. It should be said that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator was barren from entering overbought conditions, keeping its bullish bias intact. However, the RSI edges lower, and if XAG/USD falls below $25.00, that might open the door to challenge December’s 22 high turned support at $24.60. Further downside is seen at $24.00.

On the other hand, if buyers hold XAG/USD spot price above $25.00, that could open the door to test the current year-to-date (YTD) high of $25.44 ahead of $26.00.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver's bullish streak leads above $25.00, defying broader market trends with over 1.40% gains.
• A new year-to-date high at $25.44 highlights XAG/USD’s resilience, with $26.00 now in sight as next resistance.
• Should Silver retreat below $25.00, a move towards $24.50 and potentially $24.01 could unfold, testing buyer strength.

Silver's price shines on Friday and registers solid gains of more than 1.40%, shrugging off Gold’s two consecutive days of losses. It rises 1.52%, trading at $25.18 a troy ounce at the time of writing. XAG/USD advanced even though the Greenback remains strong, underpinned by high US Treasury bond yields.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

During the session, Silver printed a new year-to-date (YTD) high of $25.44, but the advance toward $26.00 was capped by an upslope support trendline that turned resistance. That sent XAG/USD retreating toward the current price levels. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is still bullish, indicating that bullish momentum remains in charge, and the $26.00 resistance level could be up for grabs.

On the other hand, if XAG/USD falls below $25.00, sellers could launch an assault towards the $24.50 area, followed by the March 12 daily low of $24.01.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver regains some positive traction on Friday and climbs to a fresh YTD top.
• The technical setup favours bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.
• Dips below the $24.50 resistance-turned-support are likely to get bought into.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's modest slide and sticks to its gains near the YTD peak, above the $25.00 psychological mark through the early part of the European session on Friday.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through the very important 200-day Simple Moving (SMA) and a subsequent strength beyond the $24.50-$24.60 horizontal barrier was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is on the verge of breaking into overbought territory and warrants some caution.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for the next leg of a move-up. Nevertheless, the XAG/USD seems poised to climb further beyond an intermediate hurdle near the mid-$25.00s, towards challenging the December 2023 swing high – levels just ahead of the $26.00 round figure. Some follow-through buying should pave the way for an extension of over a two-week-old bullish trend.

On the flip side, the $24.80-$24.75 region now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $24.50 horizontal resistance breakpoint. Any subsequent decline is likely to attract fresh buyers and remain limited near the $24.15-$24.10 region. Some follow-through selling below the $24.00 mark, however, might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and drag the XAG/USD back towards the 200-day SMA support, currently pegged near the $23.35-$23.30 region.

Silver daily chart

• Silver retreats to $24.80, pressured by climbing US Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar.
• Technical outlook remains positive, with potential resistance points set at $25.50 and $25.91.
• Support levels to watch include $24.07 and $24.00, with significant moving averages providing additional benchmarks.

Silver’s price retreated below $25.00 per troy ounce as US Treasury yields climbed following US data that induced investors to trim Fed rate cut bets. Consequently, the US Dollar rallied, and the XAG/USD exchanged hands at $24.80, down 0.79%.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

Silver remains upward biased despite retreating below the $25.00 figure. Although it achieved a daily close around $24.80, the grey metal remains poised for gains that could drive prices toward the $25.50 area and beyond. The next stop would be the December 4 high at $25.91, and up next would be the $26.00 mark.

On the other hand, if sellers stepped in and drove XAG/USD prices below $24.50, the first key support level is seen at $24.07, the March 13 daily low. Once surpassed, the next stop would be $24.00, followed by the confluence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) at $23.29/30.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver price drops to $24.90 as investors turn anxious ahead of US data.
• The Core PPI data is forecasted to have softened on both a monthly and an annual basis.
• Market expectations for Fed rate cuts in June have increased to 69%.

Silver price (XAG/USD) falls to $24.90 in Thursday’s European session after reaching a three-month high at $25.16. The white metal drops amid anxiety ahead of the United States Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data for February, which will provide fresh cues about the inflation outlook.

The annual core PPI data, which strips off volatile food and energy prices, is forecasted to have softened to 1.9% from 2.0% in January. The monthly underlying inflation data is projected to have grown at a slower pace of 0.2% against the prior reading of 0.5%. Slower growth in prices of goods and services by producers at factory gates would soften the inflation outlook.

Meanwhile, monthly Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.8%, the same pace at which they contracted in January. In the same period, economists expect that Retail Sales excluding automobiles have grown by 0.6% against a decline of 0.5%. Upbeat Retail sales data indicate an increase in households’ spending, which fuels inflationary pressures.

The Silver price witnessed significant buying interest on Wednesday as market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in the June meeting have improved again despite stubborn inflation data for February. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the chances of the Fed reducing interest rates have increased to 69%, which is close to pre-inflation data expectations.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price approaches a 10-month high of $25.90, which is the high of December 4. Near-term demand for the white metal is strong, as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $23.80 is sloping north.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a strong upside momentum.

Silver daily chart

• Silver's impressive rally brings it close to $25.00, marking significant gains in the North American session.
• Technical analysis highlights $25.00 as a pivotal resistance, with potential for further gains towards late 2023 highs.
• Failure at $25.00 could see silver retesting recent support levels, with the market closely watching $24.68 and $24.50.

Silver rallied sharply in the mid-North American session on Wednesday, climbing more than 3.40% amid high US Treasury bond yields, while the Greenback extended its losses by more than 0.20%. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $24.95, around new year-to-date (YTD) highs.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

During the session, Silver hit a low of $24.07 with no fundamental news, besides Fitch Rating’s updating its global growth forecast. That provided the grey metal with a leg up, shy of the $25.00 figure, which could have opened the door for further upside. Nevertheless, it stands as the first resistance level, followed by the July 20 high at $25.25. Further upside risks are seen at December’s 4 high of $25.91.

On the other hand, if sellers keep XAG/USD spot prices below $25.00, that could sponsor a leg-down toward the March 12 high of $24.68. A breach of the latter will expose $24.50, followed by the January 2 high turned support at $24.09.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver's price dips 1.48% to $24.10 following a stronger-than-expected US inflation report.
• XAG/USD may fall further if it breaks $24.09 support.
• Recovery needs hold above $24.09; potential bounce between $24.00-$24.70.

Silver price plunged late in the North American session following a hot inflation report in the United States that sponsored a rise in US Treasury yields, a headwind for the non-yielding metal. Therefore, the XAG/USD dropped from around year-to-date (YTD) highs of $24.68 and trades at $24.10, down 1.48%.

XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook

On Tuesday, Silver’s pullback dragged prices toward the January 2 high and turned support at $24.09. If sellers retain control in the near term and push prices below the latter, that would expose the $24.00 figure. Once cleared, XAG/USD would extend its losses toward the January 12 high at $23.52.

On the other hand, if buyers keep Silver’s spot prices above $24.09, look for range-bound trading within the $24.00-$24.70 area. The next resistance would be the $25.00 figure, followed by last year’s high at $25.91.

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Charts

• Silver price falls vertically to $24 as sticky US inflation allows the Fed to maintain a hawkish narrative.
• US monthly headline and core inflation rose by 0.4% in February.
• 10-year US bond yields rally to 4.15% as hopes that Fed rate cut expectations would ease.

Silver price (XAG/USD) plummets to $24.10 as the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains hot in February.

Annual core CPI that strips off volatile food and energy prices grew at a higher pace of 3.8% against the consensus of 3.7% but lower than 3.9% in January. In the same period, headline inflation rose at a higher pace of 3.2% against expectations and the former reading of 3.1%. The monthly headline and core inflation grew by 0.4%.

A sticky inflation report is expected to dent market expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) reducing interest rates in the June policy meeting. This is expected to lift up the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, such as Silver. Yields on assets to which interest coupons are attached, such as US Treasury bonds, are expected to increase. 10-year US Treasury yields jump to 4.15%.

Going forward, Fed policymakers may continue to maintain a hawkish narrative. The Fed wants inflation easing for months as evidence to get convinced that price stability will be achieved. The inflation data, released yet in 2024, the last leg of stubborn inflation is a hard nut to crack.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovered above 103.00 on expectations that the Fed will not discuss reducing interest rates in the first half of 2024.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price faces selling pressure after testing the horizontal resistance plotted from the December 22 high at $24.60. The overall trend is still bullish; however, a price correction move is expected before a fresh upside move. The advancing 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $23.50 indicates that the near-term demand is upbeat.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating that bullish momentum is active.

Silver daily chart