Brent crude prices have seen a 3.2% increase
this week, reaching $85.05 per barrel, which is very close to the 4-month high
of $85.09. This level has acted as a robust resistance for the past two weeks.
Maintaining prices above the $81.00-83.00 resistance since March 13 has paved
the way for a target range of $87.00-92.00 per barrel. This upward trend has
now become the primary scenario. However, before reaching this target, prices
must surpass the significant obstacle at $85.09.
Investor sentiment appears optimistic
regarding this upward trajectory, as evidenced by the $51.4 million capital
inflows into the United States Oil Fund LP (USO) last week, following four
consecutive weeks of outflows. Despite seemingly pessimistic economic
indicators, such as the rise in unemployment in the United States to 3.9% from
3.7% in February and the Eurozone's largest industrial production slump since
March 2023 at 3.2% MoM, oil prices continue to climb. Additionally, the latest
U.S. inflation data, with CPI at 3.2% YoY (up from 3.1%) and Core CPI at 3.8%
YoY (missing the 3.7% consensus), further complicates the economic landscape.
In this scenario, where economic cooling may
occur without Federal Reserve (Fed) intervention due to high inflation, the
same holds true for Europe and the European Central Bank, which are unlikely to
implement interest rate cuts. Given these conditions, the rationale behind the
climb in oil prices amid deteriorating economic conditions is uncertain.
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as
the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip in the Middle East, which investors have become
accustomed to, Brent prices have remained within the $81.00-84.00 per barrel
range since February 9.
While recent data showing a decrease in U.S.
oil inventories by 1.53 million barrels, compared to an expected rise of
900,000 barrels, could have influenced sentiment positively, it alone was not
sufficient to establish a strong upward trajectory.
From a technical perspective, the window for
oil price growth is expected to close by mid-March, giving way to a period of
downside opportunities lasting until mid-May. Given the economic backdrop, a
potential decline in oil prices from the $87.00-92.00 per barrel range could be
swift and sharp.
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