Gold prices surged by 2.4% to reach $2205 per
troy ounce, reaching a new all-time high of $2222. This upward momentum
followed a consolidation period around $2150 for ten days. Investors closely
monitored the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, interest rate
projections, and economic forecasts.
With higher inflation in the United States and
a mild cooling of the labor market in January and February, expectations
aligned with the December interest rate outlook, which projected three interest
rate cuts in 2024. However, only two cuts were confirmed due to the strength of
the American economy. As a result, bets for a cut in May plummeted to 8.0-9.0%,
while doubts emerged regarding a cut in June, with bets decreasing to 52.0%.
These developments heightened the risk of a stock market correction and
potential downward pressure on gold prices.
In response, the Federal Reserve adopted a
dovish stance, maintaining its forecast for three interest rate cuts in 2024
and signaling a slowdown in Fed balance sheet tightening. While this
combination may be controversial, it allows the Fed greater flexibility in
navigating economic challenges.
Despite the Fed's dovish stance, U.S. 10-year
Treasuries yields retreated slightly to 4.23% from 4.34%, reflecting cautious
optimism among large investors regarding the strength of the American economy.
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) reported net capital
inflows in the last two weeks of $1.2 billion and $400 million, respectively.
This suggests that investors were uncertain about the sustainability of further
increases in bullion prices. From a technical standpoint, gold prices are
currently testing resistance at $2200-2220 per ounce. However, it is unlikely
that this resistance will be breached before the end of the technical weakness
period for gold, which is expected to last until the end of April. A retreat to
$2100-2120 per ounce is considered more plausible. In the event of an upside
breakthrough, the next resistance level is located at $2300 per ounce.
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