Gold prices experienced a 1.7% increase this
week, reaching $2379 per troy ounce, following a sudden spike to $2431,
followed by a subsequent drop to $2333 per ounce last Friday. Currently, prices
appear to be consolidating.
Investor sentiment was largely influenced by
tensions in the Middle East, particularly as Iran launched over 300 missiles
and drones towards Israel. Despite Israel's interception of the majority of
these projectiles, concerns about the potential for a broader conflict persist
among investors.
The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) reported net capital
inflows of $39.6 million last week, following two consecutive weeks of outflows
totaling $637.0 million. Furthermore, investors deposited an additional $263.6
million into GLD during the first three days of this week. While it may be
premature to expect a significant rally similar to that witnessed in early
March, heightened geopolitical risks could provide support for gold prices in
the near term.
On the macroeconomic front, U.S. 10-year
Treasuries yields surged to 4.69%, the highest level since October 29, 2023,
while the U.S. Dollar strengthened by 1.5%. These factors typically exert
downward pressure on gold prices. However, a potential retracement in crude oil
prices could serve as a counterbalance, as lower oil prices are often
associated with disinflationary pressures that may prompt the Federal Reserve
(Fed) to consider interest rate cuts.
Should oil prices continue to decline towards
the $81.00-83.00 per barrel range for Brent crude, it is likely to contribute
to a further decrease in Treasury yields, thereby supporting gold prices.
Nevertheless, absent significant geopolitical escalation, gold prices may
experience a correction to alleviate overbought conditions. The $2400-2500 per
ounce range poses a strong resistance level, with potential retreats to
$2200-2220. However, sporadic upside spikes driven by geopolitical turbulence
cannot be ruled out, possibly leading to a retest of the all-time high at $2431
per ounce before any subsequent declines.
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