High event risk week ahead for EUR says BTMU

"EUR/USD - BEARISH BIAS - (1.0350-1.0700).

The euro is back under downward pressure against the US dollar in near-term although it still remains above the lows from January at around 1.0340. The US dollar is benefitting from more hawkish Fed rhetoric which has prompted the US interest rate market bring forward the expected timing of the next rate hike to this month, and increase the amount of expected tightening in the coming years. A rate hike this month is now seen as almost a done deal.

The main risks to this view in the coming week will be the speech from Fed Chair Yellen, and the release of the latest NFP report for February.

We do not expect Chair Yellen to alter current market expectations. A weaker than expected NFP report could prove more of a market mover although leading indicators are signalling that such an outcome is unlikely. There have also been positive developments in Europe over the past week which are helping to dampen downside for EUR/USD. Recent favourable opinion polls in both France and the Netherlands have helped to dampen the market's perception of European political risk. The ECB is expected to upgrade their inflation outlook at their upcoming meeting which could provide some support for the euro, although it is unlikely to signal a change to their loose policy stance at the current juncture".

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