Focus on Canada's employment report this week - NBF

Analysts at National Bank Financial think that, for the Canadian markets, April’s jobs report will draw the most attention as no less than 115K jobs were added in the country in the first three months of the year, the best performance since 2007.

• That pace is unsustainable in a context of growing labour shortages in several provinces and we suspect we’ll see a moderation in coming months, starting with a +10K print in April. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, should stay put at 5.8%, assuming the participation rate remained steady at 65.7%.
• The week will also provide some important information about the state of the housing market with the publication of March’s building permits and April’s housing starts. The latter may have bounced back to around 205K in seasonally adjusted annualized terms if, as we believe, groundbreakings for multis rose to a level more in tune with the growing number of permits granted in this category in recent months.
• We’ll also get data on March’s merchandise trade balance. Rising commodity prices during the month should have allowed nominal exports to bounce back, a development that could lead to a reduction of the trade deficit to around C$2.25 billion.
• On Monday, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will make an address to the Canadian Credit Union Association and the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce.