China: faster loan growth to return as the trade tension increases - ING

Iris Pang, the economist for Greater China at ING, says China's April credit data matched the smooth progress of trade talks last month but notes the faster loan growth is expected to return as the trade tension increases.

• We thought loan growth would decline in April but the drop from CNY1.69 trillion to CNY1.02 trillion was more than expected.  
• The seemingly smooth progression of trade talks last month signaled that exporters would not be facing any additional tariff hikes and therefore gave China's central bank, the PBoC, a reason to limit banks' loan growth. There's no need to place an extra burden on banks when the environment is stable. We do not agree with the market that the slower loan growth means lower loan demand. Loan demand in China has been strong from infrastructure projects and small- and medium-sized companies.
• But we believe credit growth in May will be higher than April and could be similar to the scale seen in March, which was CNY1.69 trillion. 
• Higher tariffs from the US on Chinese exporters means small Chinese exporters will need extra money to survive the tough times ahead, otherwise, the job market will be affected. Job stability is a top priority for the Chinese government as outlined in its "six stability" policy for 2019.
• If China implements more fiscal stimulus to defy a trade-induced economic slowdown, credit for infrastructure projects will increase, which implies total credit growth will be even faster.