UK's retail sales fall for the second straight month - ING

James Smith, the developed markets economist at ING, notes that the UK's retail sales have fallen for the second month in a row. 

• "Some of this is clearly down to the weather, where colder temperatures appear to have discouraged people from updating their summer wardrobes. Clothing and footwear sales slipped by 4.5% compared to April. This weakness means that the year-on-year growth rate in retail sales (ex-fuel) has slipped back from just over 6% in March to 2.2% now – although admittedly this also has a lot to do with the World Cup/weather-related spike at the same time last year.
• Barring a big recovery in June (which given the recent deluge of rain, seems fairly unlikely), it looks like consumer spending will add to the second quarter growth slump. It looks increasingly likely that second-quarter growth could come in flat or only marginally positive, given the likely drag from manufacturing production and inventory rundowns too.
• That said, with wage growth continuing to perform well, we think there is a reasonable chance that the Bank of England makes a more explicit hint that rates may need to rise earlier than markets think. For now though, we think Brexit uncertainty (in particular the rising risk of a general election later in the year) will prevent the committee from raising rates in 2019."