Fed clearly leaves the door open for a rate cut – Standard Chartered

Sonia Meskin, the U.S. economist at Standard Chartered, notes that at the June FOMC meeting, the Committee clearly left the door open for a rate cut, without indicating a definitive commitment to easing and was consistently communicated in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the statement and the press conference.

• “We continue to expect a 25bps FFTR cut in July; we believe it would take a definitively positive G20 outcome and an improvement in the data for the FOMC not to cut next month. A 50bps cut is also on the table in case of a poor G20 outcome or a pronounced economic deterioration.
• Policy easing would be largely pre-emptive: the SEP and the post-meeting statement emphasized little change to the baseline outlook for growth and inflation but noted increasing downside risks, primarily from slowing global growth and trade tensions.
• Also in line with our expectations, Chair Powell mentioned in the press conference that a key goal of the ongoing policy framework review is to strengthen the FOMC’s commitment to the 2% medium-term inflation objective through communication strategies. We expect this to come in the form of forward guidance, as we described in Fed framework review won’t bring pre-emptive cuts. However, further downside risks to growth would be a concern, as they could entrench low inflation expectations. Separately, contrary to our expectation, the FOMC did not signal an end to the balance-sheet taper before September 2019.”