U.S. and China likely to strike a deal in Q4 - ING

Raoul Leering, the head of international trade analysis at ING, suggests that there are too many bridges to be crossed for a smooth path towards a trade deal between the U.S. and China. He also thinks there will be another round of tariffs before the pain of the trade war forces both parties to strike a deal in the last quarter of this year.

• "Failure to agree on the resumption of the negotiations during the G20 or failure to come to a deal after a new round of negotiations will inflict extra economic pain. This increases the willingness to make concessions and strike a deal on both sides. Let’s not forget: both sides want a deal in the end. China can hurt the US economically but it knows that the US can hurt China even more. President Trump needs a deal to show the American people that he delivers on his promises to get better terms of trade for the US. He knows that this is best done without the US economy having to suffer from Chinese retaliation for an extended period of time. We expect a deal to be struck in the last quarter of this year.
• So it is likely that China as well as the US are prepared to make concessions in the end. After all, this is what's happened in the renegotiation of Nafta. To strike a deal, Trump had to accept that Mexico and Canada would not agree to all of his original demands."