Canada's economy back in the saddle - NBC

Krishen Rangasamy, an analyst at National Bank of Canada (NBC), believes that Canada's economy is now back in the saddle after a rough couple of quarters.

• “While Q2 GDP results are not yet available, monthly reports to date point to a sharp rebound for growth in that quarter to around 2.5% annualized. Trade, whose drag on Q1 growth was the biggest in two years, seems to have turned into a contributor courtesy of surging exports and declining imports, the latter not surprising after the prior quarter’s inventory build.
• Housing sales and starts suggest residential investment may also have stabilized after five consecutive quarterly declines. The rebound in oil production, after Q1’s mandated cut, is also helping.
• Report from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business adds to mounting evidence of an economic upturn. The CFIB’s Business Barometer index for June jumped to 61.5, the highest since last summer, helped in part by oil-producing provinces.
• Whether or not Canada’s momentum can carry into the second half of 2019 will depend on the ability of the global economy (and hence oil prices) to weather any escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. For now, we are keeping unchanged our 2019 GDP growth forecast of 1.4% for Canada.”