Traders are certain the Fed will cut in July, but unsure what’s next

Lurking beyond traders’ apparently unwavering confidence that the Fed will cut interest rates this month is a more nebulous outlook about what the central bank will do after that.

Traders are still pricing a full quarter-point reduction in July, yet they have slowly scaled back views on how much easing will take place for all of 2019 -- lowering expectations to 64 basis points from around 80 basis points two weeks ago. At the same time, options traders are still adding to bets the Fed will embark on a series of cuts, rather than a one-and-done approach.

“The market collectively thinks there’s a cut coming this month because the Fed has basically said there will be,” said Kit Juckes, a strategist at Societe Generale SA. “But to think there’s a big string of cuts coming after that you have to believe in a serious economic downturn and that’s not clear -- especially after the June labor data.”

The addition of a higher-than-expected 224,000 jobs in June seems to make it less urgent for the Fed to take aggressive action. That means it’s even more crucial for traders to scrutinize guidance on the policy path this week as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell starts his two-day testimony to Congress Wednesday, the same day the central bank will publish the minutes of its June meeting.