Markets ‘need to chill’ because the Fed may not be done with rate cuts, says economist

The underlying message by the Federal Reserve — after it cut interest rates on Wednesday — may not be as hawkish as many investors had interpreted it to be, according to the chief economist of Institute of International Finance.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested policymakers were not embarking on a new cycle of rate cutting. The 25 basis points cut on Wednesday marked the central bank’s first policy easing in more than a decade.

But Robin Brooks, managing director and chief economist of IIF, suggested that the central bank may not be done with cutting rates.

“I think the midcycle adjustment language that Chairman Powell used is important, ” Brooks pointed out. “The midcycle adjustments that we saw in ’95 and ’98 were 75 basis points each — so three cuts each. And I think that is actually pretty close to what the market was pricing going into this meeting.”

So, the central bank’s move and Powell’s comments on Wednesday aren’t “much of a hawkish surprise at all,” Brooks told. “My basic point here is: I think markets here need to chill a little bit and the underlying theme is more dovish than ... markets perceived.”

Brooks is not the only economist suggesting that the U.S. central bank could lower interest rates even more. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a Wednesday note that they “see an 80% cumulative probability of another cut at some point this year.”