Germany’s industrial slump worsens in June, boding ill for its Q2 GDP growth – ING

Carsten Brzeski, the Chief Economist at ING Germany, notes that the industrial slump in Germany continues with industrial production dropping by 1.5% month-on-month in June, from 0.1% MoM in May. 

• “On the year, industrial production is down by more than 5%. Activity in all sectors dropped - only the construction sector grew by a meager 0.3% MoM, after two consecutive drops. The weak performance of the construction sector means that this sector – contrary to anecdotal evidence that it was still booming – has been a drag on growth in the second quarter.
• German industry continues to suffer from structural changes and ongoing trade conflicts. 
• Looking ahead, despite yesterday’s encouraging industrial orders data, the combination of high inventories and few orders at hand does not bode well for industrial production in the months ahead. Add to this a further escalation of the current trade conflicts, Brexit and an ongoing structural transformation in the automotive sector and the outlook doesn’t look any better. Against this background, recent tentative signs that the domestic economy’s resilience is crumbling are concerning.
• All in all, we would characterize today’s industrial production report as devastating, with no silver lining. Today’s data also shows that we should prepare for contraction in the German economy in the second quarter, unless exports bring an unexpected surprise on Friday.