The growth of Chinese overseas investment will likely slow or even decline in the next few years - Moody’s Investors Service

China’s overseas investment growth will likely slow or even decline in the next few years, as geopolitical and economic risks around the world increase, according to credit rating agency, Moody’s Investors Service.

Moody’s said that Chinese infrastructure companies will be more selective when investing in projects outside the country.

“Overseas investments will remain at a solid level, but companies will take a more cautious approach to these investments, especially in emerging and frontier markets,” wrote the authors of the report.

That’s due to an “increased awareness” of the risks, they said.

“This awareness stems from the lessons — sometimes difficult ones — companies are learning from the sector’s rapid expansion into emerging and frontier markets during the past few years,” according to the report.

For years, Chinese overseas direct investments grew, boosted by government policy programs such as the Belt and Road Initiative.

Overseas direct investment in China jumped 49.3% in 2016, followed by two consecutive years of decline. It fell 23% year-on-year in 2017, and dropped 13.6% in 2018 compared to the previous year, Moody’s said, citing Chinese government data.

After its peak in 2016, growth started to slow as a result of regulatory controls and tighter liquidity conditions in China, according to Moody’s.