Global economy at a precarious moment – Danske Bank

Danske Bank's analysts think the global economy is at a precarious moment with OECD leading indicators pointing towards further downside, but PMI new orders actually picking up, driven partly by China and stabilizing world trade growth.

• “Geographically, the most weakness is found in euro area manufacturing, not least in German manufacturing orders and the US manufacturing indicators point to an industrial recession.
• The weakness is driven, in particular, by soft investments and business confidence globally, which are both at levels normally seen in G7 recessions, while corporate earnings growth is also waning or even negative in the euro area and emerging markets.
• The stalwart of the global economy so far, the confidence of private consumers, has started to show weakness despite still-robust real income growth. This is evident in China and, to some extent, the US, while euro area consumer confidence remains resilient.
• Monetary easing is showing up around the world: The US financial conditions impulse is still positive (though waning a bit), Chinese M1 and euro area money growth have picked up. There is increasingly solid growth in private sector loans in the euro area.
• This stimuli is an important reason behind our call that the global economy will see a modest pickup next year, provided that the US-China trade war does not escalate.”