Brexit deal faces significant parliamentary scepticism – ANZ

The Australia and New Zealand Bank’s (ANZ) Brian Martin said early on Friday that Brexit deal faces significant parliamentary skepticism.

• “The EU and UK have reached agreement on replacing the Irish backstop, but the deal now faces intense parliamentary debate.
• The deal delivers Brexit and allows the UK to negotiate free trade agreements. UK politics is never easy, however, and the agreement is not without costs. Will Scotland now want similar arrangements to Northern Ireland?
• Many MPs welcome a deal but feel its implications need to be put to the public in a referendum. The DUP, which has supported the government, says that under no circumstances will it support the deal.
• The government needs 320 votes to pass the agreement. Johnson’s Conservative Party has 287 MPs.
• The European Research Group, the hard Brexiteers of the Conservatives, has around 35 MPs. Some may not support Johnson, given the DUP’s position.
• Johnson expelled 21 Conservative MPs from the parliamentary party in September, because they did not support a no-deal Brexit. They are not showing a sudden willingness to rush to his aide, although some probably will.
• Up to 20 Labour ‘leave’ MPs could support the bill, but that won’t cover the gap. Early calculations from various political analysts suggest the government is short a handful of votes.
• The outcome will be very close. Interestingly, the former leader of the Liberal Democrats has urged the LDP to support the deal with a referendum.”