Australia: Q3 CPI likely to increase by 0.6% – Westpac

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that Australia’s September quarter CPI is likely to rise 0.6%, lifting the annual pace to 1.8%yr from 1.6%yr.

“The September quarter tends to be a seasonally strong quarter with the ABS projecting a seasonal factor of –0.1ppt. The seasonally adjusted CPI is forecast to rise 0.5%. The trimmed mean is forecast to rise 0.32%qtr/1.5%yr and the weighted median is forecast to rise 0.27%qtr/1.2%yr. The average of the core inflation measures is forecast to print 0.29%qtr with the annual pace easing back to 1.3%yr from 1.4%yr. Boosting the CPI in the September quarter is food (drought offsetting normal seasonal softness), alcohol & tobacco (mostly the annual re-indexing of the tobacco excise) and holiday travel & accommodation (with domestic lifting 6% and international rising 3% in the quarter). Core inflation remains well below the bottom of the RBA target band as moderating housing costs offset modest inflationary pressure elsewhere. Competitive disinflationary pressure in consumer goods is limiting the pass through of the weaker AUD though it is having some impact. Given this we find it hard to envisage core inflation breaking higher any time soon let alone returning to the mid-point of the 2%yr to 3%yr target band.”