Germany: GfK consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell

According to the GfK Consumer Climate Study, the German consumer mood paints a somewhat less optimistic picture in October. Both economic and income expectations as well as propensity to buy have had to take losses. GfK is predicting a consumer climate value of 9.6 points for November, meaning 0.2 lower points than the revised value for October (9.8 points). The index was expected to remain at 9.8.

Besides known risk factors such as the global economic downturn, trade conflicts and Brexit chaos, there are increasing reports of job losses, such as in the automotive industry and on the financial markets, for example. "These events have dampened the mood of consumers again and optimism is dwindling. As a consequence, the consumer climate has fallen to its lowest level since November 2016 with a value of 9.6 points," explains Rolf Bürkl, GfK consumer expert. "Nevertheless, private consumption will remain an important pillar for the German economy this year – assuming that the current crises do not escalate further and both policy and the economy counter the rising fear of job losses." 

While the economic outlook recovered slightly in the previous month, it continued its downward trend in October. The economic expectation indicator lost 4.8 points, falling to -13.8 points as a result. The last time a lower value was recorded was almost seven years ago in December 2012 when it stood at -14.0 points.