Asia: PMIs pull back – TDS

Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD Securities, suggests that their composite GDP weighted Asia manufacturing PMI measure recorded a renewed slip into contraction in October while the average Asia PMI measure remained in contraction for a fifth straight month.

“Our ex-China measures of PMI also remained in contraction. The outcome is disappointing given US-China trade deal hopes, but highlights the reality that a "Phase 1" deal may provide limited relief. The data also shows that Asia remains vulnerable to the worsening US manufacturing outlook. An eventual trade deal will likely boost the PMIs but the down draft on global manufacturing will not ease quickly. The October manufacturing PMIs revealed declines in 5 out of 9 countries; China (-0.5), Taiwan (-0.2), Thailand (-0.6), Indonesia (-1.4), and India (-0.8), recording falls. In contrast Singapore (+0.1), South Korea (+0.4), Philippines (+0.3) and Malaysia (+1.4) gained. PMIs are in contraction territory in 6 out of 9 countries, with Taiwan re-joining others recording below 50 readings. Philippines registered the strongest reading at 52.1 while Indonesia recorded the weakest at 47.7. Notably China revealed its weakest reading since February.”